宁德时代暂停中国一座锂矿的生产，为期三个月。 供需层面，据估算，假设2025年宁德枧下窝矿山产量为0，2025年全球锂矿资源端供给总量约为160-165 万吨（其中宜春矿区假设宁德枧下窝矿山产量为0，其余矿山合计产量为10万吨），需求量全年看预计 在130-135万吨，供需仍处于偏过剩状态。 如果碳酸锂价格长期维持在8万及以上水平，供给端仍有大量未满产产能可释放，譬如Mt Kathleen Valley正处于满产提升中，Mt Wodgina一直处于3条选厂两用一备的状态等。 并且资源端扩张还没有结束，譬如Mt Greenbushes、sigma年底各自有52万吨、27万吨锂精矿新产能投 产、尼日利亚的新矿山投产等。 并且宁德枧下窝矿山并非永久停产，待采矿证续期完成后大概率会进行复产复工。 综上，机构认为此次事件影响偏短期及情绪。 宁德枧下窝矿山停产或给予市场碳酸锂供给收缩预期，短期内对锂价或有所支撑，后续需关注其他矿区 供给扰动情况。 据知情人士透露，电池巨头宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司已暂停其位于中国江西省一座主要锂矿的 生产，暂停时间至少为三个月。上述人士称，作为全球最大的电动汽车电池制造商，宁德时代已 ...

碳酸锂供应扰动再起！ 这个周末，很多券商都在讨论一件事，那就是宁德时代枧下窝锂矿停产。有消息称，该矿山采矿端将于 8月10日起停产，且短期内没有复产计划。因此，市场普遍认为，周一（8月11日）开盘，碳酸锂期货和 相关股票将有所反应。 那么，影响究竟有多大？碳酸锂是否会迎来反转行情？有券商研究员表示，该矿山相配套的三大冶炼厂 合计产能10万吨LCE，若实际发生停产，则影响月度供应约0.8万吨LCE，约占国内碳酸锂月度供应 8%，影响量级较大，对短期价格有较强支撑。 据证券时报.e公司记者实探，当地村民表示，"矿区是昨晚停的。以前晚上正常开工时，灯火通明，山 上放炮，山下的房子都能感受到。"在湖溪村采访时，记者巧遇了几位投资者。"我们可能是外界唯一的 见证枧下窝矿区停产的目击者。"上述投资者表示，"昨天，我们晚上9点多从小路爬上山顶，11点达到 山顶，到晚上12点，所有的作业挖掘机、推土机，都是准时停产。" 有一种分析认为，此次停产可能与企业需在矿种重新认定、资源税补缴、技术迭代之间持续寻找平衡点 有关。2025年7月1日生效的新《矿产资源法》将锂列为独立矿种，并提高伴生矿认定标准（氧化锂品位 需≥0.4%）。这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent news surrounding the lithium mining companies in Yichun, Jiangxi, particularly the suspension of operations at the Jiangxiawo mining area, has significantly impacted lithium carbonate prices and raised concerns about the future of lithium supply in the region [1][2][5]. Group 1: Company Operations - Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CATL, holds the mining rights for the Jiangxiawo mining area, which began in August 2022 and is set to expire in 2025 [1][2]. - The Jiangxiawo mining area is one of the largest lithium mica mines in Yichun, with a potential production capacity of 200,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year based on average lithium oxide grades [2][5]. - CATL has expressed optimism regarding the renewal of mining rights, stating that application materials have been submitted and are awaiting approval [5][9]. Group 2: Market Impact - The suspension of operations at the Jiangxiawo mining area has led to significant fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures prices, with a notable increase of 36.71% from June 23 to July 25, followed by a sharp decline [5][8]. - The market is closely monitoring the situation, as the Jiangxiawo mining area contributes to approximately 20% of the domestic monthly lithium production capacity [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The Yichun region has a total production capacity of 7.39 million tons (raw ore) per year across eight lithium mining companies, with seven currently in operation [4][5]. - The recent developments have raised questions about the future of the other seven mining companies in the region, as they are also required to complete resource verification reports by September 30 [10].

碳酸锂供应扰动再起！ 这个周末，很多券商都在讨论一件事，那就是宁德时代枧下窝锂矿停产。有消息称，该矿山采矿端将于8月10 日起停产，且短期内没有复产计划。因此，市场普遍认为，周一（8月11日）开盘，碳酸锂期货和相关股票将 有所反应。 那么，影响究竟有多大？碳酸锂是否会迎来反转行情？有券商研究员表示，该矿山相配套的三大冶炼厂合计产 能10万吨LCE，若实际发生停产，则影响月度供应约0.8万吨LCE，约占国内碳酸锂月度供应8%，影响量级较 大，对短期价格有较强支撑。 市场疯传停产 又是行业研究员忙碌的一个周末。从昨日（8月9日）开始，陆续就有消息传出，枧下窝锂矿确定停产，短期无 复产计划。有研究员表示，确实已经停了，此次停产是三个月时间。 瑞银这份报告引发市场明显异动。2024年9月11日，锂矿概念板块共有29家企业上涨，包括赣锋锂业、天齐锂 业、威领股份多只个股涨停。当天，碳酸锂期现货亦双双大涨。碳酸锂期货主力合约一度大涨超9%，当日收 盘涨幅7.91%，报78450元/吨；现货方面，当日电池级碳酸锂均价报7.35万元/吨，环比上涨1000元/吨。 影响多大？能否带来反转？ 其实，本周期货市场已经开始博弈停产事 ...

Core Viewpoint - CATL has announced an internal notice regarding the temporary suspension of the Jiangxi province's Jianxiawo lithium mine for at least three months, which is significant given its contribution to global lithium supply [1] Group 1: Company Impact - The suspension of the Jianxiawo lithium mine is expected to affect approximately 3% of global lithium production, highlighting the mine's importance in the supply chain [1] - CATL is facing issues with the renewal of the mining license, which was originally set to expire on August 9, indicating regulatory challenges [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The suspension comes at a time when the Chinese government is intensifying efforts to combat overcapacity in various industries and is enhancing regulations on mining operations [1] - This development could be seen as a positive for an industry that has been struggling with overcapacity for over two years, potentially leading to a tightening of supply [1]

据知情人士透露，电池巨头宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司已暂停其位于中国江西省一座主要锂矿的 生产，暂停时间至少为三个月。上述人士称，作为全球最大的电动汽车电池制造商，宁德时代已在内部 宣布枧下窝锂矿将临时停产。其中一位人士表示，附近宜春市的关联精炼厂已获通知。由于未获授权公 开讲话，他们要求匿名。交易商一直密切关注该矿及其采矿许可证的续期情况，该许可证原定于 8 月 9 日到期。在非工作时间，这家中国公司未立即回应彭博社的提问。近几周，锂行业受到现货、期货和股 票市场剧烈波动的冲击，而由于许可证续期问题，枧下窝锂矿的运营备受关注。上周，交易商曾用无人 机航拍该矿（预计其产量约占全球锂矿产量的 3%），希望借此评估其当前的生产状况。宁德时代面临 的许可证问题及停产，正值中国政府打击多个行业的产能过剩，并加强对采矿作业的监管之际。然而， 对于一个已受产能过剩困扰两年多的行业来说，供应链中这一重要环节的停产将是一大利好。7 月，广 州期货交易所最活跃的碳酸锂期货合约价格一度突破 8 万元（约合 1.1128 万美元），随后该交易所采 取措施遏制投机交易。上周，该材料价格上涨约 9%，周五收于 7.5 万元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - After a brief adjustment, lithium carbonate futures have experienced a significant price increase, with the main contract closing at 76,960 yuan/ton on August 8, marking a weekly rise of over 10% [1] Supply Changes and Price Drivers - The market's focus has shifted to the progress of mining license renewals in Jiangxi, with expectations of production cuts driving the potential for supply contraction, which is a key factor for price increases [3] - Despite the uncertainty surrounding potential production halts, this has led to heightened sensitivity in market trading rhythms [3] - Current weekly production of lithium carbonate remains high, and rising prices have encouraged some companies to increase operational willingness, with expectations of increased output from African and South American sources [3] - Social inventory growth is limited, indicating that downstream sectors still have some capacity for absorption, although rapid price increases have led to a cautious stance among processing and end-user companies [3] Demand Changes and Market Sentiment - Demand-side changes have not led to a comprehensive boost, but there are still expectations for a seasonal peak, with a slight decline in new energy vehicle sales in the first half of the year [4] - There are signs of increased production plans for cathode materials and battery cells, which bolster confidence among some market participants to maintain long positions and enhance raw material replenishment intentions [4] - The impact of market sentiment has been particularly pronounced, with ongoing speculation about production halts leading to significant short-term price fluctuations [4] - Despite prices being at high levels, market volatility may continue until actual procurement activities commence, necessitating a stable response from investment and industrial procurement to mitigate risks from over-expectation [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the lithium and copper mining sectors, particularly focusing on major Australian lithium mines and overseas copper companies. Lithium Mining Companies General Performance - Total lithium concentrate production for FY2025 is projected at 1.48 million tons, exceeding design capacity, although the CGP3 project's output has not met expectations [3][4] - Q2 production was stable at 340,000 tons, with sales increasing by 12% to 410,000 tons [4] - Cash costs rose to $238 per ton, a 7% increase due to declining ore grades [4] Future Outlook - For FY2026, lithium concentrate production is expected to increase to 1.5-1.65 million tons, with costs projected to decrease to approximately $202-$234 per ton [4] - Capital expenditures are anticipated to drop from AUD 710 million to AUD 575-675 million [4] Specific Mines 1. **Pilbara** - FY2025 production reached 755,000 tons, exceeding guidance, with plans to increase to 820,000-870,000 tons in FY2026 [4] - FOB costs are expected to decrease to AUD 560-600 per ton [4] 2. **Marion Mountain** - Q2 production fell by 11% due to efforts to improve product grade, with an annual target of 514,000 tons [7] 3. **Wojena** - Q2 production increased by 30% to 166,000 tons, with costs dropping to AUD 641 per ton [7] - Annual production is projected at 502,000 tons [7] Market Conditions - The overall growth rate for major projects in FY2025 is limited, with a conservative outlook for FY2026 due to current low price environments [5] - Recent price increases above $700 may lead companies to adopt more aggressive production plans [5] Copper Mining Companies General Performance - In Q2 FY2025, 15 major overseas copper companies produced approximately 2.7 million tons, a 1.4% year-over-year decline but a 2.5% quarter-over-quarter increase [2][8] - For the first half of FY2025, total copper production was about 5.34 million tons, down 1.3% year-over-year [9] Company-Specific Insights - **Rio Tinto** saw a 9% increase in Q2 production, benefiting from improved underground capacity and ore grades [8] - **Glencore** experienced a 21% year-over-year decline due to low ore grades and recovery rates [8] Market Conditions - Q2 supply tightness is expected to support copper prices, with a continued tight supply forecast for the second half of the year [10] - The absence of significant economic downturns is likely to prevent substantial drops in copper prices, presenting potential investment opportunities [10] Additional Insights - The shutdown of the Jianxiao mine is expected to positively impact related companies, providing a potential turnaround for those near breakeven [6] - Zhongkuang Resources may benefit from stabilized lithium carbonate prices, with rising profits from copper and minor metals aiding in achieving market value targets [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The recent main driver of lithium carbonate is the disturbance at the mining end. Due to the approaching expiration of mining licenses of some mines in Jiangxi and the impact on mining in some African mines, and there is no clear conclusion about the disturbance, the futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range shock [2] 3. Summary by Related Sections Market Analysis - On August 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 68,840 yuan/ton and closed at 67,840 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price down 2.39% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 437,207 lots, and the open interest was 232,062 lots (compared to 215,949 lots in the previous trading day). The current basis was 1,400 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 14,443 lots, a change of 1,840 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,600 - 72,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,500 - 69,700 yuan/ton, also down 150 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Based on the weekly data of the first four weeks of July, the estimated total retail sales in July were about 1.78 million units, flat year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month. New energy vehicle retail sales were 950,000 units, down 14% month - on - month and up 8% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of about 53% - 54% [1] Strategy - The recent main driver of lithium carbonate is the mining - end disturbance. Since there is no clear conclusion about the disturbance, the futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range shock [2] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None; Inter - delivery spread: None; Inter - commodity: None; Futures - cash: None; Options: None [4]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯赣锋锂业8月5日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司业绩情况请关注公司后续披露的 定期报告。 ...