12月8日，海关总署发布的数据显示，以美元计价，11月，我国出口额同比增长5.9%，比10月加快7.0个 百分点，超出市场预期；进口额同比增长1.9%，增速比10月加快0.9个百分点。 11月出口继续呈现"东方不亮西方亮"特征。东方金诚数据显示，11月中国对美国出口同比下降28.6%， 降幅较上月扩大3.4个百分点；但中国对发达经济体中的欧盟、日本、韩国出口同比分别增长14.8%、 4.3%、1.9%，增速分别较上月大幅加快13.9个、10.0个、15.0个百分点。 数据显示，当月集成电路和汽车出口额分别同比增长34.2%和53.0%，增速分别较上月加快18.9个和7.2 个百分点。"以上两类商品出口加快，是11月机电产品和高技术产品出口较快增长的主要原因，这有效 抵消了当月箱包、玩具、服装等传统劳动密集型商品出口下滑带来的影响。"冯琳表示，预计短期内芯 片及汽车出口有望继续保持高增势头。 另外，数据显示，11月我国对"一带一路"共建经济体整体出口同比增长10.5%，增速较上月加快7.8个百 分点。冯琳认为，这主要是在上年同期基数走低下，当月对非洲、拉丁美洲出口增速显著加快带动的结 果。 总体上看，冯琳表示： ...

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment Trends - In the first ten months of 2025, national fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with monthly declines of -5.3%, -7.1%, -7.1%, and -12.2% from July to October, marking five consecutive months of negative growth[1] - The fixed asset investment growth rate for Q1 2026 is projected to be +2.8%, with both broad infrastructure and manufacturing investments expected to exceed +5.0% year-on-year[1] - Historical data shows that the probability of achieving a positive growth in fixed asset investment in Q1 exceeds 80%, indicating a strong likelihood of a "good start" in 2026[4] Group 2: Policy Support and Debt Management - The new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan support over 2,300 projects, with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, aimed at both broad infrastructure and manufacturing sectors[2] - The rapid debt repayment progress in the second half of 2025 is expected to alleviate the pressure on project funding in 2026, allowing local governments to support investment and consumption more effectively[3] - By the end of 2025, local government debt issuance exceeded 10.2 trillion yuan, with special refinancing bonds playing a significant role in debt management and project funding[26] Group 3: Economic Environment and Investment Confidence - The meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. in October 2025 is anticipated to improve micro-enterprise investment confidence, contributing to a more favorable investment environment[2] - The current data suggests that the "watered-down" statistics from previous periods may have been adequately addressed, reducing the likelihood of statistical manipulation in future investment data[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial People's Congress has passed a decision to promote high-quality development in the nine cities of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, emphasizing the need for innovation, collaboration, and sustainable urban development to enhance the region's global competitiveness [1][2]. Summary by Sections Decision Overview - The decision consists of seven parts and twenty-two articles, focusing on optimizing urban systems, promoting efficient development, building a global innovation hub, enhancing regional characteristics, prioritizing people's needs, gathering high-end resources, and strengthening implementation [3]. Economic Significance - The nine cities in the Greater Bay Area are crucial for China's economic growth, contributing over 80% of Guangdong's GDP, which is projected to reach 11.54 trillion yuan in 2024, supporting Guangdong's position as the leading province in economic scale for 36 consecutive years [4]. Urban Development Characteristics - A modern urban system with complementary functions is forming, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen as core engines driving regional development. The cities are enhancing their roles in international trade, innovation, and industrial transformation [5]. Transportation Infrastructure - A comprehensive transportation network is being established, with over 2,800 kilometers of railway and 5,458 kilometers of expressways. The region is also developing a world-class airport and port system, with a projected cargo throughput of over 1.64 billion tons in 2024 [8]. Innovation and Industry - The region is focusing on technological innovation, with over 70,000 national high-tech enterprises and significant advancements in strategic emerging industries such as AI and new energy. Collaborative industrial clusters are forming across cities [7]. Quality of Life Improvements - Efforts are being made to enhance public services, healthcare, and education, with a focus on creating a livable environment. The air quality is expected to reach a 93% good rate, and forest coverage is over 52% by 2024 [10]. Future Development Directions - The decision outlines plans for deeper regional cooperation, enhanced industrial collaboration, improved transportation connectivity, and a focus on marine economy development, aiming to integrate the Greater Bay Area with Hong Kong and Macau [11][12][13].

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第 771期 2025-12-09 焦点事件 中央政治局会议研究明年经济工作，如何理解8项"坚持"？ 据新华社，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面 依法治国工作条例》。 对于如何做好明年的经济工作，会议提出一些重要表述，包括"更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争""实施更加积极有为的宏观政策""持续扩大内需、优化供给"等，并提出八项"坚持"的重点工作。多 位受访专家表示，明年经济增长转型诉求不减，政策需要兼顾短期与长远，内需将继续发挥助力经济总 体回升向好的"助推器"作用，并坚持以开放促改革促发展，重点领域风险化解将更加积极稳妥。 宏观要闻 证监会召开立法联系点工作座谈会 近日，中国证监会建立立法联系点并召开首次立法联系点工作座谈会。据记者了解，中国证监会确立了 六家单位作为第一批立法联系点，分别是国泰海通证券股份有限公司、工银瑞信基金管理有限公司、广 发期货有限公司、四川省上市公司协会、陕西证监局和大连商品交易所。此举旨在进一步拓宽投资者等 市场各方参与资本市场立法的渠道，更好地反映投资者等市场各方的声音。 国际货币基金组织上海中心正式开业 12月8日，国 ...

Economic Performance - The sales revenue of high-tech industries increased by 14.7% year-on-year, with smart equipment manufacturing sales rising by 28.2% [1][2] - Manufacturing tax revenue remains stable at around 30% of total tax revenue, indicating the sector's solid role as an economic stabilizer [1][2] - The total amount of tax reductions and refunds for policies supporting technological innovation and manufacturing reached 23.725 billion yuan in the first ten months [2] Manufacturing Sector Developments - High-end manufacturing is accelerating, with equipment manufacturing sales up by 8.3%, and specific sectors like computer communication and instrumentation seeing increases of 12.3% and 10.3% respectively [2] - The adoption of automation in manufacturing is increasing, with spending on automated equipment rising by 14.2% [2][3] - The share of high-energy-consuming manufacturing sales decreased by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, reflecting a shift towards greener practices [2] Consumer Market Trends - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated consumer demand, with retail sales in mobile communication devices and home appliances growing by 20.3% and 26.5% respectively [4][5] - The tourism and cultural sectors are thriving, with sales in cultural performances and film screenings increasing by 15.6% and 19.1% [4][5] - The number of travelers benefiting from tax refunds has surged by 285%, with tax refund sales and amounts increasing by 98.8% [5][6] Taxation and Compliance Improvements - Cross-regional tax services have improved, with a nearly fourfold increase in cross-regional tax business handled this year [7][8] - The proportion of inter-provincial trade sales in total sales revenue reached 41.1%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [7] - Over 7,000 domestic and foreign platforms are now fulfilling their tax information reporting obligations, leading to a 12.7% increase in tax payments from platform operators [8]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in November exports is primarily attributed to the dissipation of short-term supply disruptions rather than an improvement in external demand [2][7][30] Export Analysis - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year (YoY) in USD terms, a notable recovery from a decline of 1.1% in October, driven by factors such as increased working days and the reduction of "production rush" effects [2][6][7] - The increase in working days in November (up by 2 days YoY) and the tapering off of the "production rush" phenomenon contributed significantly to the export rebound [2][7] - Exports to emerging economies showed a marked recovery in November, with exports to Africa and Latin America rising by 17.1 percentage points (pct) and 12.8 pct respectively, despite no significant improvement in demand from these regions [2][11] - The export of goods such as food, steel, and auto parts, which had seen significant declines in October, rebounded in November, with respective increases of 34 pct, 18.7 pct, and 13.6 pct [3][18] Import Analysis - Imports also showed a recovery in November, with a YoY increase of 1.9%, up by 0.9 pct from the previous month [3][25] - Processing trade imports surged by 9.2 pct to 13.9%, exceeding previous growth levels, indicating a rebound in supply conditions [3][25] - Major commodities like crude oil and electromechanical products saw improved import growth rates, with crude oil imports increasing by 8.4 pct to 8.1% [3][25][51] Future Outlook - The easing of supply disruptions, combined with ongoing improvements in external demand and China's competitive export advantages, is expected to support exports for the remainder of the year [4][30] - The potential for improved exports to the U.S. is bolstered by the easing of tariffs and the likelihood of inventory replenishment in the U.S. market [4][30] - Continued industrialization in emerging markets is anticipated to drive demand for imported production materials, further supporting China's export of intermediate and capital goods [4][30] Regular Tracking - In November, both exports and imports showed signs of recovery, with notable increases in consumer electronics and light industrial products [5][37] - Capital goods exports exhibited mixed results, with intermediate goods like auto parts and integrated circuits showing growth [5][40] - Exports to non-U.S. developed economies and emerging markets increased, while exports to the U.S. declined [5][47][48]

海关总署12月8日发布的最新数据显示，11月我国货物贸易进出口总值3.9万亿元，同比增速回升至 4.1%，比上月加快4个百分点，从2月起连续10个月保持同比增长。其中，出口2.35万亿元，同比增长 5.7%；进口1.55万亿元，同比增长1.7%。在外部环境复杂多变的背景下，我国外贸韧性进一步得到验 证。 从累计看，前11个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿元，同比增长3.6%，增速与前10个月持平。 其中，出口24.46万亿元，同比增长6.2%；进口16.75万亿元，同比增长0.2%。 上海财经大学商学院讲席教授、中国式现代化研究院首席专家鲍晓华在接受上海证券报记者采访时表 示，前11个月我国外贸总体仍延续"稳中有进、结构优化"的态势。未来的外贸发展短期虽有压力，但从 中长期看，我国制造业体系完备、市场空间广阔，只要政策保持连续性、针对性，我国外贸完全有条件 保持在合理区间运行。 从贸易伙伴看，新兴市场仍是稳外贸的关键支撑。前11个月，我国对第一大贸易伙伴东盟进出口总值 6.82万亿元，同比增长8.5%，占外贸总值的16.6%。同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口21.33 万亿元，同比增长6%。 ...

从繁华的黄浦江畔到静谧的江岛长兴，"园区行"活动足迹遍布黄浦、静安、徐汇、普陀、虹口、闵行、 金山、青浦、奉贤、崇明等十个上海市行政区，精准对接人工智能、集成电路、生物医药三大先导产业 及高端装备、生命健康等重点领域企业近400家，书写了上海金融业服务实体经济的新篇章。 全周期赋能：从青浦启幕到闵行收官的金融接力 金洽会"园区行"活动于9月29日正式启动，选择将首站定在青浦工业园区。青浦区委副书记、区长金晓 明，市委金融办常务副主任周小全，上海金融业联合会理事长、交通银行董事长任德奇亲临现场，为活 动定下"精准赋能、直达实体"的基调。 "金洽会不仅是上海金融业的年度盛会，更是上海金融业践行金融为民理念、连接产业、服务实体经济 的重要桥梁纽带。"任德奇的发言，让在场的生物医药企业代表倍感振奋。 作为青浦重点打造的五百亿级产业集群之首，生物医药产业的"融资之渴"尤为迫切。一家企业代表抛出 疑问："企业缺乏担保能力，有没有更可行的融资解决方案？"针对这一痛点，交通银行上海市分行科技 金融专家陈杰回应，不少生物医药企业仍处于亏损状态，银行如何更好地借助非财务因素去评估这些企 业，并给予授信支持，是其团队正在探索和实践 ...

另一方面，在高技术中间品领域，中国集成电路进口额达2.1万亿元，同比增长18%；芯片、航空航 天、汽车零部件等采购额均保持两位数增速，为韩国、日本、德国、美国等地的高端制造业提供了关键 需求与预期支撑。此外，随着"双碳"项目扎实推进，前三季度液化天然气、光伏组件制造设备、电池级 锂矿进口分别增长21%、34%、47%，来自挪威、智利、澳大利亚等国的企业切实分享了中国绿色转型 带来的市场红利。 当前，全球贸易保护主义思潮难以平息，一些西方国家屡屡展现自己在经贸事务上的双重标准。与西方 媒体的自我标榜形成鲜明对比的是，西方一些国家迭起波澜，不断加码贸易保护措施。荷兰政府以所 谓"国家安全"为名，运用行政手段直接干预商业并购，强行夺取安世半导体中国母公司闻泰科技在该国 子公司股权的行为，便是将经贸问题泛安全化、滥用国家力量破坏市场规则的典型案例。然而，经济全 球化本质是共赢的"正和之路"。妄自给中国贴上"以邻为壑"的标签，既罔顾事实，也与外国企业扎堆来 中国的选择相悖。今年以来，特斯拉上海超级工厂迎来第100万辆整车下线，苹果宣布追加在华研发投 资30亿元，空客天津第二条总装线正式开工……这些实实在在的项目，正是对 ...