一份奢侈品市场的中国答卷。 文 ｜ 杨柳 越来越多年轻人 选择线上购买奢侈品 打开电商网站，轻松浏览各大奢侈品牌的线上旗舰店，既可以买到Prada这样时尚老牌的经典包包，又可以选到设计师品牌Maison Margiela的限定联名，打 破时间与地域限制，一站式线上种草和选购高价消费品，正成为城市新一代消费者的购物习惯。 今年双11，据平台透露，Balenciaga、Canada Goose、Coach、 Lemaire 、Maison Margiela、Max Mara、Miu Miu、Moncler、Ralph Lauren、Valentino等品 牌均在天猫实现高双位数增长，正是这一趋势的直接表现。 与大众消费品的折扣驱动不同，消费者对于线上奢侈品的热衷也在于独家和丰富的新品。今年，超200家奢品大牌赶在双11前在天猫首发当季新品，其中不 少是独家款、中国限量款和重磅联名款，共同构成了与线下消费的差异化体验。 随着断崖式降温的来临，冬季功能奢品成为消费者购买的首选阵地。"羽皇"Moncler经典的Maire及Maya系列再度在天猫焕新，棕色、绿色、米色等多个全 新色调在天猫双11首发；而加拿大鹅也上新了B ...

Core Insights - Burberry Group reported a 5% year-on-year decline in total revenue to £1.032 billion for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, with a 3% decline when adjusted for constant currency [1] - Adjusted operating profit stood at £19 million [1] - Comparable store sales increased by 2% in the second quarter, reversing a 1% decline in the first quarter [1] Revenue Performance - EMEIA region revenue grew by 1% year-on-year, with local consumption offsetting declines in tourism spending [1] - The Americas saw a 3% growth driven by new customer acquisition [1] - Greater China experienced a 1% decline, although it rebounded with a 3% growth in the second quarter; the Asia-Pacific region declined by 2% [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is reinforcing its "Timeless British Luxury" brand positioning and accelerating the narrative around British heritage to enhance brand appeal [1] - Positive market response to the 2025 Autumn/Winter collection, with strong performance in outerwear and scarves extending to other categories; additional demand from core wholesale partners for the 2026 Spring/Summer collection [1] - Store experience optimization is underway, including product display upgrades and cross-category sales enhancements, with over 100 scarf zones opened and plans to reach 200 by year-end [1] Customer Engagement - The company is seeing a gradual improvement in customer growth, with both new and returning customers increasing [1] - Cost efficiency plans are progressing, targeting an annual saving of £8 million by the end of the 2026 fiscal year [1] Leadership Perspective - CEO Joshua Schulman highlighted that the "Burberry Forward" strategy, implemented over the past year, has deepened the brand's expression centered on "Timeless British Luxury," optimizing product supply and driving consumer return, resulting in the first same-store sales growth in two years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's recent performance shows a slowdown in revenue growth, particularly for the Prada brand, which has recorded negative growth for the first time since 2020, while Miu Miu's growth is normalizing despite being faster than peers [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Prada's stock fell over 4%, currently down 3.32% at HKD 46.6, with a trading volume of HKD 28.27 million [1] - Citigroup noted that revenue growth for the second and third quarters has slowed to unit numbers, indicating a concerning trend for the Prada brand [1] - The group's profit margin is expected to remain at 23.6% in 2024, which is approximately 350 basis points lower than historical highs [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - The Miu Miu brand continues to grow faster than its competitors, but its growth rate is beginning to normalize [1] - Significant investments in advertising, manufacturing, IT infrastructure, and retail network expansion are required for Miu Miu, which may suppress profit margin expansion [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - Prada's CFO, Andrea Bonini, stated that the company plans to pursue a dual listing, with a six-month consideration period for the Italian listing, but no commitments have been made yet [1] - The luxury goods market is currently stable, with positive conditions in the U.S. market, although caution is advised due to potential market bubbles fostering overly optimistic sentiments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to pursue a dual listing, with a six-month timeframe to consider its listing in Italy, without making any immediate commitments [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The luxury goods market is currently stable, with positive performance in the U.S. market [1] - Overall, it is difficult to criticize the performance in the U.S., although the company remains cautious about potential market bubbles that could foster overly optimistic sentiments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Burberry has shown signs of recovery with a 2% year-on-year increase in comparable store sales in the second fiscal quarter, ending a seven-quarter decline, driven by a resurgence in demand from the Chinese market [1][3][6]. Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted operating profit of £19 million (approximately $25 million) for the first half of the year, a significant turnaround from a loss of £41 million in the same period last year [3][6]. - Comparable store sales in regions including China grew by 3% in the last three months, reversing a previous decline of 5% [3][6]. Strategic Changes - Under CEO Joshua Schulman's leadership, Burberry has implemented a revival plan focusing on classic outerwear and cost-cutting measures, which has begun to yield positive results [3][7]. - The strategy emphasizes a return to the brand's roots, highlighting products like trench coats and scarves, contrasting with previous management's focus on expensive handbags [7]. Market Reaction - The positive financial results have boosted market confidence, reflected in a 28% increase in Burberry's stock price year-to-date and its return to the FTSE 100 index [3][6]. - Analysts view Burberry's strategic plan as robust, indicating that all performance indicators have been met and that the execution is on track [8].

Core Viewpoint - Burberry's revival plan under CEO Joshua Schulman is showing positive results, driven by a recovery in demand from the Chinese market, leading to a turnaround in performance after a prolonged decline [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the second fiscal quarter ending in September, Burberry reported a 2% year-on-year increase in comparable store sales, surpassing market expectations and ending a seven-quarter sales decline [1][4]. - The adjusted operating profit for the first half reached £19 million (approximately $25 million), a significant recovery from a loss of £41 million in the same period last year [1][4]. - Sales in regions including China grew by 3% in the last three months, reversing a previous decline of 5%, marking the first growth in over a year for the Chinese market [1][4]. Market Reaction - The positive financial results have led to a strong market response, with Burberry's stock price increasing by 28% year-to-date, and the company re-entering the FTSE 100 index in September after being removed in 2024 [1][4]. Strategic Changes - CEO Joshua Schulman has implemented strategic adjustments focusing on classic products and cost reduction, aiming to restore brand appeal and profitability [5]. - The strategy emphasizes a return to Burberry's roots, highlighting iconic products like trench coats and scarves, contrasting with previous management's focus on expensive handbags [5]. - Cost control measures include a plan to reduce the workforce by about 20%, with restructuring costs related to layoffs amounting to £37 million [5]. Industry Context - Burberry's performance adds evidence of a recovery in luxury goods demand, with analysts noting that all indicators have been met and the execution of the strategic plan is on track [6].

Core Viewpoint - Burberry reported a revenue of £1.032 billion for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, reflecting a 3% decline year-on-year at constant exchange rates [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced an operating loss of £18 million, significantly reduced from a loss of £53 million in the same period last year [1] - Adjusted operating profit turned positive at £19 million, compared to a loss of £41 million in the previous year [1] - Gross margin improved to 67.9%, an increase of 410 basis points [1] Sales Performance - Same-store sales increased by 2% year-on-year in Q2, while same-store sales for the first half remained flat compared to last year [1] Future Outlook - Burberry indicated that it is still in the early stages of transformation, with the macroeconomic environment remaining uncertain [1] - The focus for the year is to consolidate initial progress in reigniting consumer purchasing desire, which is crucial for revenue growth [1] - The company expects the impact of its initiatives to gradually become evident over time and will continue to simplify processes, enhance production efficiency, and improve cash flow to sustain profit margin growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a negative chain reaction characterized by declining income, shrinking consumption, and weak employment, exacerbated by the pervasive influence of AI on various economic sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Downturn - The cyclical downturn in the U.S. economy has become increasingly evident since the beginning of the year, with key indicators such as employment, consumption, and service sectors showing continuous decline [5]. - Tariff policies have significantly disrupted the economic rhythm, leading to a preemptive economic activity surge in early months, followed by a consistent decline in consumer spending and inventory accumulation starting in May [9]. - The sales volume of corrugated boxes, a retail barometer, hit a 10-year low in Q3, reflecting the current sluggish state of U.S. consumer spending [9][10]. - Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 50.3, indicating deteriorating economic performance [17]. Group 2: Temporary Shocks - The U.S. government shutdown has become a significant economic and livelihood crisis, lasting 43 days, surpassing the previous record [18]. - The shutdown has put immense pressure on the job market, affecting approximately 2.3 million federal employees and contractors, leading to reduced consumer spending and potential public safety risks [19]. - The shutdown has resulted in an estimated $24 billion in federal spending being paused, with projections indicating a 0.1% economic growth decline for each week of the shutdown, potentially leading to a 2% drop in Q4 growth [19]. - The economic pressure is extending from the middle class to low-income groups, with SNAP benefits halved, impacting retail sales by an estimated 1.5%-2% [22]. Group 3: Structural Distortions - There is a notable "K-shaped" divergence in U.S. exports, with AI-related sectors performing exceptionally well while traditional consumer goods exports continue to weaken [23]. - AI investments are driving demand for chips and related infrastructure, while simultaneously causing electricity prices to rise due to increased consumption from AI data centers, which now account for about 5% of the U.S. power generation [24]. - AI-related job cuts are occurring as companies streamline operations, with significant layoffs reported by major tech firms like Amazon and Meta, further exacerbating employment pressures [28]. - The economic landscape is increasingly polarized, with high-end consumer spending remaining robust while lower-income consumers face significant financial strain, leading to a shift towards discount retailers [29].

Group 1: Economic Downturn - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a negative feedback loop characterized by declining income, shrinking consumption, and weak employment[2] - Since the beginning of the year, a noticeable cyclical downturn has emerged, with key indicators such as employment, consumption, and services showing continuous decline[3] - The consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan consumer sentiment index at 50.3[27] Group 2: Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has lasted 43 days, surpassing the previous record of 35 days in December 2018[28] - The shutdown has led to approximately $24 billion in federal spending being paused, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a 2% decline in U.S. economic growth for Q4[4] - The shutdown has also caused liquidity tightening in financial markets, contributing to a significant drop in risk assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. stocks[32] Group 3: Structural Distortions from AI Investment - There is a clear "K-shaped" divergence in U.S. exports, with AI-related sectors performing exceptionally well while traditional consumer goods exports continue to weaken[36] - AI investments have led to a surge in demand for semiconductors and related infrastructure, with Taiwan's exports to the U.S. increasing by 144.3% in October[36] - The reliance on AI has created a structural dependency that may increase long-term financial system vulnerabilities, as any fluctuations in AI could trigger broader economic disruptions[45]

Core Viewpoint - The European high-end manufacturing industry, particularly luxury goods, is facing significant pressure due to U.S. tariff policies, leading to a decline in performance across various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Luxury Goods - European luxury brands are experiencing a downturn, with LVMH reporting a revenue drop in its fashion and leather goods division from €299.2 billion to €276.1 billion, a decrease of approximately 8% year-on-year [2]. - Kering's revenue also fell by about 12% to €11 billion, with its flagship brand Gucci seeing a 22% decline in revenue [2]. - The high-end automotive sector is similarly affected, with Porsche's operating profit plummeting by approximately 99%, from €40.35 billion to €400 million [2]. Group 2: Swiss Watch Industry - The Swiss watch industry is under severe strain, with a 39% tariff imposed on Swiss watches leading to a 56% year-on-year drop in exports to the U.S. in September [3]. - Swatch Group, which includes brands like Omega, relies heavily on the U.S. market, which constitutes nearly 17% of its exports [3]. Group 3: Consumer Confidence in the U.S. - The U.S. market accounts for over 23% of global personal luxury goods sales, and the tariff pressures are causing European luxury brands to raise prices, which is dampening American consumer purchasing intent [4]. - Porsche and Swatch have announced price increases of 5% to 15% in the U.S. market, reflecting the industry's response to cost pressures [4]. - Experts indicate that consumer confidence is crucial for luxury spending, and uncertainty in the economic and policy environment is leading to a cautious approach among American consumers [4]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Uncertainty - While price increases may provide short-term relief, they pose long-term risks to brand image and consumer loyalty, potentially deterring younger customers [5]. - Some European luxury brands are exploring local production in the U.S. to avoid tariffs, but face challenges such as a lack of skilled labor and low production efficiency [5][6]. - Efforts to optimize supply chains to control costs are also costly and may jeopardize craftsmanship standards, contributing to significant uncertainty in the global high-end consumer market [6].