光子星球 . 细微之处，看见未来 以下文章来源于光子星球 ，作者文烨豪 来源丨光子星球（ID： TMTweb ） 作者丨 文烨豪 编辑丨 王 潘 图源丨Midjourney 9月22日，转转集团发布公告，宣布将逐步关停旗下"自由市场"业务，未来，将全面聚焦二手"官方 验"服务。 乍看之下，转转卸下"自由市场"，很容易被解读为战略收缩，但如果把目光拉长，就会发现这并非退 守，而是"剪枝"。 自2019年以来，转转一直在慢慢"加重"，自身重心亦从轻量的互联网平台，逐渐变为深度介入质 检、回收、售后等环节的"新消费企业"。因此，关停"自由市场"，更像是转转这一路走来的延续。 而放在行业语境里，这件事有更大的意味。国内二手交易市场，似乎正经历着一次分岔——一条路依 然强调开放和社区感，另一条路则更多押注标准化和确定性。而转转与闲鱼，正分别站在这两条路径 上。 转转 " 剪枝 " 树在生长过程中，枝叶会不断向外伸展，但养分终究是有限的，过度的枝繁叶茂，反而可能让主干失 去向上的力量。于是，人们会在必要的时候剪去一些不再必要的枝条，将养分回流到更关键的部位。 企业亦是如此，真正健康的公司往往不是无止境地伸展，而是在复杂、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhuanzhuan, has announced the gradual shutdown of its C2C marketplace, shifting focus to an "official verification" business model, which raises questions about its competitive strategy and future growth potential in the second-hand market [2][6][10]. Market Context - The Chinese second-hand market is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, indicating a vast potential for growth [6]. - Zhuanzhuan has historically operated under the shadow of larger competitors like Xianyu and Aihuishou, lacking strong e-commerce backing [6][10]. Competitive Landscape - Zhuanzhuan's reliance on advertising to maintain its C2C presence has proven costly and ineffective compared to the community-driven approach of Xianyu, which benefits from Alibaba's ecosystem [6][9]. - Xianyu has over 600 million registered users, with a significant portion being active Gen Z users, highlighting its strong market position [9]. Business Model Challenges - The C2C segment has been financially burdensome for Zhuanzhuan, with CEO Huang Wei admitting to nearly 200 million yuan in subsidies to support this business line [7]. - Zhuanzhuan's previous attempts to pivot towards a C2B2C model included quality verification services, but recent controversies have undermined consumer trust [10][11]. Strategic Shifts - Zhuanzhuan has made several strategic pivots, including a recent acquisition of Hongbulin and a focus on the luxury second-hand market, which aims to address consumer demand for quality assurance [12][13]. - The launch of "Super Zhuanzhuan," a multi-category second-hand store, represents a significant shift towards offline retail, catering to consumer preferences for tangible product experiences [13]. Risks and Future Outlook - The decision to exit the C2C market may lead to user attrition as consumers migrate to platforms that still support peer-to-peer transactions [14]. - Zhuanzhuan's approach contrasts with competitors like Xianyu and Dewu, which continue to embrace C2C models, suggesting potential long-term implications for Zhuanzhuan's market relevance [14][15].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite the overall economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [2][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [4][5][6]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, spending on pets has increased. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend, with various pet brands seeing rising sales [8][9]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a significant opportunity for adult care products in China, particularly with brands like Kexin [10][11][12]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased demand for sugar-free products and functional beverages in both Japan and China, with brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun gaining traction [15][16]. - **Beauty and Personal Care**: Despite economic constraints, spending on beauty products remains strong, with high-priced items like collagen supplements and home beauty devices seeing significant sales [19][20][21][22]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor equipment market is booming, with brands like Snow Peak in Japan and various Chinese brands experiencing rapid sales growth [24][25][26]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and comfort foods, are gaining popularity among younger consumers [27][28][30]. - **Convenience Foods**: The demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances that save time is increasing, with brands like Anjiyuan and Kewotai seeing steady growth [34][35]. Group 2: Market Trends - **Consumer Behavior**: The article emphasizes that in a low-desire economy, consumers are prioritizing time-saving products over cost-saving ones, indicating a shift in purchasing priorities [35][38]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The current economic climate presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors, suggesting that companies that can identify and act on these trends will emerge as winners [38]. - **Educational Initiatives**: The article promotes a course aimed at helping businesses understand how to thrive in the current market, featuring insights from industry leaders on product innovation and brand expansion [39][40][47].

Group 1: Market Overview - Amazon's second-hand sales in the UK and Europe are projected to exceed €2 billion in 2024, with over 740 million items circulating in the European second-hand market [2] - The European second-hand e-commerce market has reached €21.6 billion, with over two-thirds of consumers having purchased second-hand goods, expected to grow to €23.8 billion by the end of 2025 [2] - Germany shows the highest willingness to purchase second-hand goods, with a transaction volume of €6.5 billion in the past year, while the UK's online second-hand market reached £4.3 billion [2] Group 2: Development Stages - The development of the European second-hand e-commerce platform can be divided into three phases: the inception around 2010, expansion from 2015 to 2020, and peak growth from 2021 to 2024 [3] - The first phase saw the emergence of key platforms like Vinted, Vestiaire Collective, and Depop, focusing on fashion, luxury goods, and vintage clothing [4][5][6] - The second phase was characterized by the expansion of established platforms and the rise of new entrants, with significant financing activity [9][10] Group 3: Key Players - Vinted, founded in 2008, has become a leading platform with a valuation of €5 billion in 2024, achieving a GMV of $12.5 billion and over 65 million registered users [15][18] - Vestiaire Collective, established in 2009, has a valuation of €1.1 billion as of 2023 and has expanded into multiple markets [16][18] - Depop, launched in 2011, was acquired by Etsy for $1.63 billion in 2021 and has over 35 million users [16][18] Group 4: Market Trends - The second-hand clothing market in Europe is projected to grow from approximately $17.425 billion in 2023 to $43.12 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 10.52% [14] - The second-hand electronics market is also expanding, with platforms like Back Market and Swappie gaining traction [17][18] - Major players like Amazon, eBay, and TikTok Shop are increasingly entering the second-hand market, indicating a competitive landscape [24][25][26] Group 5: Amazon's Strategy - Amazon has launched initiatives like Amazon Warehouse and Amazon Renewed to facilitate the sale of second-hand goods, with sales in the UK exceeding 4 million items in 2022 [19][22] - In 2024, Amazon's second-hand sales in Europe and the UK surpassed €2 billion, reflecting a growing demand for refurbished and second-hand products [23] - Amazon's entry into the second-hand car market is planned for 2025, further diversifying its offerings [21]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for China [3][4]. Group 1: Emerging Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities; instead, it presents new avenues for business growth [4]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards second-hand markets, with significant growth in platforms like Xianyu and Zhuanzhuan, indicating a rising demand for second-hand goods [6][9]. - The pet economy is booming, with brands like Guobao and Zhongchong seeing strong sales as consumers prioritize spending on pets over traditional family structures [11][12][15]. - The adult care market is expanding, particularly in China, where products like adult diapers are expected to see significant growth due to an aging population [16][18]. - The beauty and wellness sectors are thriving, with products like collagen supplements and at-home beauty devices gaining popularity, reflecting a continued consumer focus on aesthetics [23]. - Outdoor and leisure activities are on the rise, with brands in camping and outdoor gear experiencing increased sales as consumers seek experiences over material possessions [24][30]. - The emotional economy is gaining traction, with products that provide comfort and joy, such as low-alcohol beverages, becoming increasingly popular [25][26]. - The "lazy economy" is emerging, driven by younger generations who prefer convenience, leading to growth in frozen food and smart home appliances [29][31]. Group 2: Market Trends and Strategies - The article suggests that the current economic climate, often viewed as a "winter," actually presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [33]. - The upcoming event, "Black Horse Consumption Rise," aims to provide insights into how Japanese and Chinese companies can thrive in a stock market era through product innovation and brand expansion [34][39]. - The importance of understanding consumer needs and market segmentation is highlighted, with successful companies focusing on niche markets and innovative product offerings [42]. - The article discusses the significance of global branding and the need for Chinese companies to build trust in international markets through effective storytelling and cultural adaptation [43][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that economic downturns can present unique opportunities for ordinary individuals to find low-cost business ventures, contrary to the common perception of difficulty in making money during such times [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Opportunities - The article discusses the "Kondratiev Wave" theory, which suggests that economies experience cycles of prosperity, recession, stagnation, and recovery approximately every 60 years, with each phase lasting about 15 years [5]. - Currently, the global economy is transitioning from a low period that began in 2015 to a recovery phase, indicating that new opportunities are emerging amid structural adjustments [5][7]. - Historical examples from Japan and the United States illustrate that economic downturns do not eliminate opportunities but rather redistribute them, leading to the emergence of low-cost businesses that meet essential needs [7][8]. Group 2: Trends in Japan and the United States - Japan's economic transformation post-1990 crisis saw a shift towards value-oriented consumption, with the rise of discount stores and second-hand markets, emphasizing the importance of quality-to-price ratio [9][10]. - The U.S. experienced similar trends during the Great Depression and the 1970s stagflation, where low-cost entertainment and essential services thrived despite economic challenges [14][15][16]. - Both countries' experiences highlight the necessity for businesses to adapt to changing consumer demands during economic downturns, focusing on efficiency and cost-effectiveness [17]. Group 3: CHEES Model for Identifying Opportunities - The article introduces the CHEES model, which identifies five key areas for potential business opportunities: Cheap (value-oriented), Health (preventive care), Emotion (emotional fulfillment), Entertainment (low-cost leisure), and Lifestyle (niche markets) [19][21][23][27]. - Specific business opportunities are suggested, such as community discount supermarkets, second-hand luxury goods, and self-service fitness centers, which align with current consumer trends [20][22][24][26][28]. - The model serves as a practical guide for entrepreneurs to navigate economic fluctuations and identify viable business ventures [29][31]. Group 4: Practical Guidance for Entrepreneurs - The article stresses the importance of understanding economic trends and consumer behavior to convert insights into actionable business strategies [29][34]. - It encourages aspiring entrepreneurs to start with low-cost ventures to minimize risks and build experience, rather than pursuing large-scale projects without a solid foundation [30][39]. - The course offered by Wang Cen aims to provide a comprehensive framework for understanding economic cycles and applying the CHEES model to identify suitable business paths [31][42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer behavior is shifting towards different spending patterns [4]. - The phenomenon of consumption upgrading and demand migration is identified as the largest business opportunity [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a significant revenue increase. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7]. - **Pet Economy**: Despite declining birth rates, spending on pets is increasing, with brands like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China seeing strong sales [10][11]. The pet healthcare sector is also expanding rapidly [12][13]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a substantial growth potential for similar products in China [14][15][16]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness are driving the growth of sugar-free beverages and functional foods in both Japan and China [19][20]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, such as collagen supplements and home beauty devices, remains strong, indicating that beauty is both an economic and therapeutic necessity [22]. - **Outdoor and Leisure**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands in China experiencing rapid sales growth, reflecting a desire for leisure activities despite economic constraints [22]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and unique consumer goods, are gaining popularity [23][24]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience foods and smart home appliances is rising as younger generations seek to save time in cooking and household chores [27][28]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The article suggests that while many perceive the current market as a "cold winter," the true winners are those who can identify and invest in counter-cyclical opportunities [31].

Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, highlighting the resilience of high-end consumption, particularly in luxury goods [1] - International luxury brands are actively innovating consumer experiences to deepen their presence in the Chinese market [1] Luxury Market Trends - A flagship store of Louis Vuitton in Shanghai has seen a daily visitor count of 2,000, with August bookings fully booked, indicating strong consumer interest [4] - The store's opening has tripled the regional foot traffic, showcasing the impact of luxury brands on local commerce [4] - A new luxury store concept in Shanghai combines exhibition, dining, and retail, creating an immersive cultural experience for consumers [5] Brand and Cultural Integration - Luxury brands are exploring new ways to integrate with local culture, as seen in a renovated old house in Shanghai that offers a unique shopping experience blending local and Italian styles [6] Market Expansion and Digital Transformation - In 2024, 278 monitored luxury brands opened approximately 350 new stores in China, with a focus on first-tier cities and digital upgrades [8] - The second-hand luxury market is gaining traction, with a notable increase in consumer awareness and the rise of circular consumption concepts [9][15] Demographic Shifts in Consumer Base - The second-hand luxury market is seeing a younger demographic, with a growing proportion of male buyers [12] - Stores are diversifying their inventory to include a wide range of products, catering to various consumer needs [13] Future Outlook - The luxury market in China is expected to maintain a positive trajectory, driven by ongoing consumption policies and the potential of younger and lower-tier market consumers [17] - The luxury sector is shifting from "buying new" to "activating existing inventory," indicating a broader evolution in the industry [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][9]. - **Pet Economy**: Despite declining birth rates, spending on pets is increasing, with brands like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China seeing strong sales. The pet healthcare sector is also expanding significantly [10][11][13][14]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing potential for similar products in China, driven by an aging population [15][16][17]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness have led to the success of sugar-free products and functional beverages in both Japan and China [20][21]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products remains strong, with companies like Jinbo Bio achieving high market valuations through collagen products, indicating a persistent consumer interest in beauty [23]. - **Outdoor and Leisure**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands in China experiencing rapid sales growth, reflecting a desire for leisure activities despite economic constraints [24]. - **Emotional Economy**: Brands like Labubu and Rio are capitalizing on the need for emotional comfort, showing that consumers are willing to spend on experiences that provide joy [24][25]. - **Lazy Economy**: The trend towards convenience is evident in the growth of frozen food brands and smart home appliances, which cater to a generation with less time for cooking [28][29][30]. Group 2: Market Insights - The article emphasizes that even in a low-desire economy, there are significant opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors. It encourages stakeholders to recognize and act on these emerging trends [32].

Group 1: Second-Hand Luxury Market - The second-hand luxury goods market is expanding into county-level cities, reflecting an increase in consumer spending power in these areas. During the Spring Festival, order volume for second-hand luxury items in fifth-tier cities grew by 33%, while third and fourth-tier cities also saw double-digit growth [1] - Challenges for second-hand luxury stores in county areas include limited style variety, inventory backlog, and profit compression, necessitating stable sourcing and authentication capabilities [1] - The second-hand luxury industry is shifting from high profits to refined operations, with competition expected to concentrate among financially strong major players or local small shops [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - New consumption brands are rapidly emerging by targeting lower-tier markets and utilizing efficient channels, disrupting traditional consumer perceptions in first and second-tier cities [2] - Generation Z consumers prioritize emotional value, cost-effectiveness, and information transparency, driving a comprehensive restructuring of products, brands, and channels [2] - The lower-tier market shows strong consumption potential, becoming a new growth engine, reflecting profound changes in demand-side consumption [2] Group 3: Emotional Value in Luxury Consumption - A report indicates that happiness dominates luxury consumption trends in China, with brands needing to provide enjoyable and relaxed experiences while emphasizing equality and respect [4] - The value of luxury goods is shifting towards emotional, cultural, and personal expression, with consumers seeking resonance with ideal personas [4] - Changes in product roles are evident, with bags focusing on practicality and jewelry serving as emotional tokens, highlighting the need for brands to create high-level emotional connections [4] Group 4: Gold Consumption and IP Collaboration - The gold consumption market in China is experiencing turbulence, with rising gold prices but weak demand, leading to a decline in jewelry consumption and an increase in investment gold bars [5] - Brands are exploring the "Golden Valley" model, combining IP collaborations with the value retention of gold to shift consumer perception from "family assets" to "personal expression" [5] - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are partnering with anime IPs to achieve product premiumization, while future strategies must balance value retention with emotional needs [5] Group 5: Fast Fashion Challenges - The fast fashion industry faces challenges due to the end of the U.S. tax exemption policy for small packages, significantly impacting the "small order quick response" model represented by Shein [10] - New tariffs increase costs and extend customs clearance times, undermining the rapid response advantage of these businesses [10] - While industry scale may decline in the short term, the "small order quick response" model remains a long-term development direction, requiring companies to innovate technologically and commercially [10] Group 6: Silver Economy in Luxury Brands - Luxury brands are targeting the "silver economy," with China's silver economy scale reaching 7 trillion yuan, indicating significant future potential [11] - Brands are developing practical products and age-appropriate experiences, such as lightweight handbags and cultural scene enhancements, to cater to this demographic [11] - Silver consumers are rational and loyal, focusing on self-expression and brand connotation, prompting brands to reinforce nostalgic emotions through classic revivals and workshops [11] Group 7: Brand Dynamics - The Chinese menswear brand Li Ning has opened its first overseas store in Malaysia, marking a key step in its internationalization strategy [12] - The opening aligns with Li Ning's multi-brand and international strategy, with projected revenue of 3.65 billion yuan in 2024 and a total of 2,773 stores [12] - Semir's children's clothing brand Balabala is facing challenges in a competitive market, with a decline in revenue and net profit, necessitating supply chain optimization and product enhancement [13]