Industry Overview - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) is reported at 4120 points this week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [1] - The CCPI for the previous week was 4066 points, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [1] - The domestic maritime shipping price for liquid chemicals was 168 RMB/ton, down 8.51% year-on-year and 0.62% month-on-month [1] Express Delivery - In December, the express delivery business volume increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2] - The total collection volume for postal express from January 26 to February 1 was approximately 4.541 billion pieces, up 60.8% year-on-year and 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The total delivery volume during the same period was about 4.477 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.8% [2] - The State Post Bureau forecasts that by 2025, express delivery revenue will reach 1.5 trillion RMB, growing by 6.5% year-on-year [2] Logistics - DSV's integration of DB Schenker is progressing ahead of expectations, with completion anticipated by the end of 2026 [3] - The company is focusing on smart logistics, benefiting from improved demand [3] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights nationwide decreased by 1.08% year-on-year, with domestic flights down 1.28% [4] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 67.55 USD/barrel, down 4.47% month-on-month and 11.07% year-on-year [4] - The domestic aviation kerosene ex-factory price (including tax) is 5334 RMB/ton, down 4.3% month-on-month and 12.7% year-on-year [4] - The airline sector is expected to see profit elasticity due to supply constraints from aircraft manufacturers and upstream component suppliers [4] Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) is at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% month-on-month and 20.7% year-on-year [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% month-on-month and 33.2% year-on-year [5] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 2.1% month-on-month and 88.5% year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for oil transportation [5] - A recent agreement between the U.S. and India to halt Russian oil purchases is expected to boost oil transportation demand [5] Road and Rail Ports - Anhui Expressway completed the acquisition of Shandong Expressway, acquiring 7% of its total share capital at a price of 8.92 RMB/share, totaling 3.019 billion RMB [5] - The total number of freight vehicles on national highways reached 56.83 million, up 4.75% month-on-month and 506.12% year-on-year [5]

Group 1 - Bithumb, a South Korean cryptocurrency exchange, mistakenly issued 620,000 bitcoins worth over $40 billion to 695 customers due to a manual input error during a promotional event [3][5] - The error was identified within 20 minutes, and all transactions and withdrawals were frozen shortly after the mistake was discovered [3] - Bithumb has successfully recovered 618,212 bitcoins, which accounts for 99.7% of the mistakenly issued amount, and 93% of the 1,788 bitcoins sold by users have also been retrieved [3][5] Group 2 - LABUBU, a product from Pop Mart, achieved annual sales exceeding 10 million units, indicating strong market demand [6] - The global average selling price of smartphones is projected to surpass $400 by Q4 2025, driven by a trend towards higher-end models [5] - Several banks have raised deposit rates, with new three-year fixed deposit rates reaching 1.95%, reflecting a competitive banking environment [9]

E-commerce and New Retail - Andrew Miles, former president of Sam's Club, joins Metro China as an advisor, focusing on the development of warehouse membership stores in the Chinese market [1] - The appointment signifies a talent competition phase in the warehouse membership store sector as more players enter the market [1] Retail Operations - Gao Xin Retail announced that it is temporarily unable to contact its executive director and CEO, Li Weiping, but believes this matter does not significantly impact the company's operations [2] - The situation highlights management uncertainties that traditional retail companies face during transformation [2] Mergers and Acquisitions - Meituan announced the acquisition of Dingdong Maicai's China business for approximately $717 million, marking a significant event in the instant retail industry [3] - Dingdong Maicai achieved a record revenue of 6.66 billion yuan in Q3 2025, indicating strong market performance [3] - The acquisition reflects a new phase of consolidation and refined competition in the instant retail sector [3] Logistics and Supply Chain - Several express delivery companies, including China Post and SF Express, will continue to provide services during the Spring Festival, ensuring delivery needs are met [4] - This move represents a response to consumer demand and reflects the maturity of logistics infrastructure in China [4] Lifestyle Services - Xiaohongshu has become the exclusive interactive community for the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, continuing its partnership for the third consecutive year [5] - The collaboration presents an opportunity for Xiaohongshu to enhance brand recognition but also faces pressure to innovate and avoid user fatigue [6] Travel and Mobility - Didi has partnered with Hainan Airlines to enhance member benefits, allowing users to unlock rewards through completing tasks [7] - This partnership reflects a shift towards value-added services in the competitive travel market [7] AI and Innovation - The AI model Kimi K2.5 has become the most popular model on OpenClaw, indicating a rise in the competitiveness of Chinese open-source models in the global AI landscape [10] - Alibaba's new programming model Qwen3-Coder-Next shows significant advancements in AI programming capabilities while reducing costs [11][12] - Alibaba has unified its AI model branding under "Qwen," streamlining its strategy and enhancing its competitive position in the market [13]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics and express delivery industry is experiencing a peak in demand due to the upcoming Spring Festival, with a focus on ensuring timely delivery of goods while leveraging technology to enhance efficiency and service quality [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The express delivery sector is crucial for connecting urban and rural areas, facilitating resource flow, and supporting economic circulation, especially during peak seasons like the Spring Festival [2]. - The introduction of advanced technology, such as automated sorting systems and AI-driven inventory management, is significantly improving operational efficiency and delivery accuracy [3][4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Jitu Express has upgraded its Zhengzhou transit center with new automated sorting lines and systems, achieving a sorting efficiency of 55,000 packages per hour and a 90% automation coverage [3]. - JD Logistics launched the "AI New Year Goods Map," which provides real-time inventory data and predictive analytics to help merchants optimize stock levels based on regional consumer preferences [4]. Group 3: Market Expansion - The inclusion of Xinjiang in the express delivery "free shipping zone" has led to a structural change in the western consumer market, with a reported 20% increase in delivery volume since January, particularly in the New Year goods category [5]. - The implementation of a "warehouse front" strategy and the establishment of new distribution centers in Xinjiang have improved delivery times, with major cities achieving a "three-day delivery" service [5][6]. Group 4: Consumer Experience - The new policies have enhanced the shopping experience for consumers in Xinjiang, allowing for a wider variety of goods, including larger items like appliances, to be delivered more efficiently [6]. - The express delivery industry is adapting to new consumer demands, including services for transporting vehicles during the Spring Festival, which has been well-received in major cities [6]. Group 5: Regulatory and Service Improvements - The State Post Bureau is actively addressing issues related to illegal charges in the express delivery sector, with a significant reduction in complaints reported [7]. - Plans are in place to enhance rural delivery services and ensure that express delivery meets the needs of consumers in remote areas, with a focus on improving public service levels [8].

Core Insights - The implementation of a unified logistics model in Xiaobazi Town has significantly improved the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of delivery services to rural areas, allowing for direct access to express delivery for villagers [1][2] - The initiative has led to a substantial increase in package volume, with daily processing exceeding 1,500 packages and 800 packages collected by villagers, demonstrating the success of the logistics integration [2] Group 1: Logistics Model - The town has adopted a centralized logistics model that integrates resources from multiple villages, reducing delivery costs and improving efficiency by consolidating operations [2] - Previously, delivery to four villages required four couriers, but the new model has cut labor and transportation costs by over 50% [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The initiative has generated additional income for village collectives, with an expected increase of over 200,000 yuan this year from express delivery returns, which will be reinvested into local infrastructure and community services [2] - The village collective receives 0.6 yuan per package delivered, contributing to a significant revenue stream that supports local development [2] Group 3: Future Plans - Plans are in place to upgrade the delivery station into a hub for local agricultural products, aiming to connect rural producers with broader markets through live-streaming sales [2]

Core Viewpoint - The development of rural logistics and postal services in China is significantly improving access to e-commerce and enhancing the quality of life for rural residents, with a focus on building a comprehensive delivery system by 2025 and beyond [2][3]. Group 1: Rural Logistics Development - The establishment of 460 village-level express delivery stations in Shache County has made it easier for residents to access e-commerce services, facilitating the distribution of local products like red dates and almonds to national markets [1]. - The State Post Bureau aims to increase the proportion of villages with delivery service stations to 80% by 2025, enhancing the delivery capabilities in rural areas [2]. Group 2: Regulatory and Environmental Initiatives - The revised "Interim Regulations on Express Delivery" will take effect in June 2025, focusing on improving packaging standards and promoting green, reduced, and recyclable packaging practices [2]. - The industry aims for a packaging standardization rate of 86.8% and the recycling of over 1 billion cardboard boxes by 2025 [2]. Group 3: Service Quality and Public Welfare - The State Post Bureau plans to address issues such as illegal charges for mail collection in rural areas by 2026, implementing a dynamic governance mechanism to eliminate such practices [3]. - Initiatives will include enhancing supervision of rural mail delivery services, ensuring compliance from express delivery companies, and improving public service levels in rural regions [3]. - The postal management department is committed to meeting the growing demand for postal services, aiming for more convenient, widespread, and high-quality services [3].

春节临近,与筹备年货的喜悦一同到来的,是关于快递停运的广泛讨论。春节快递何时停,怎么寄,是大家关 心的话题。2月6日,"快递停运"话题冲上热搜。还有一份被广泛转发的"快递停运时间表"显示,多家快递 公司将在春节前几天陆续停止收派件。 圆通表示,春节期间国内寄递除西藏、甘肃、云南、内蒙古、吉林、广西、湖南、辽宁等部分因第三方 物流停运或天气原因无法到达的区域外,其余地区服务正常。 申通表示春节期间不打烊,会正常提供收派服务,具体安排可能根据各地网点实际情况略有调整,其间可能 根据实际情况调整运费。 韵达客服表示,春节期间全网正常营运,除部分地区(西藏、新疆、四川部分县级城市、云南、青海部分县 市)无法收寄,其他地区均正常营运。但春节期间会有省内2-3天、跨省4-5天的延时。 网传的那些"停运时间表"到底靠不靠谱?记者打听了一圈,目前没有一家快递公司明确表示会在春节期间 全面停运,"停运时间表"的信息并不准确。为了让大家过个安心年,记者梳理了2026年春节期间国内主要 快递公司和电商平台的发货政策。一句话总结:春节快递不打烊,但时效和服务费可能会有小变动。 春节期间,中国邮政继续提供寄递服务,可以通过EMS微信公 ...

Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI index remains high at 9.38% as of February 1, 2026, down from 10.77% on January 25, indicating a general recovery since November [8] - The increase in the WEI index is primarily driven by domestic demand, particularly in movie box office and residential property transaction areas [8] Asset Performance - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference is at 3.69, indicating a high relative value for stocks compared to bonds, while the bond-stock yield difference is at a historical low of 0.06% [12] Demand Analysis - Residential property sales remain weak, with a 27% year-on-year decline in transaction area for 67 cities as of February 6, 2026, worsening from a 17% decline in January [3][16] - Passenger car retail sales saw a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% in January, despite a month-on-month decline of 20.4% [2][16] Production Insights - Cement shipment rates are low at 26.3% as of February 6, 2026, stable compared to the previous week but better than 22.8% year-on-year [3][21] - The operating rate for asphalt plants has decreased to 24.5%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][21] Trade Developments - The global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January, up from 50.4, indicating a recovery in global trade demand [25] - China's port container throughput increased by 12.4% week-on-week as of February 2, 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase of 15% [25] Price Trends - Major commodity prices have declined, with the South China comprehensive index down 4.5% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 3.3% [44] - Oil prices fell, with Brent crude at $68.1 per barrel, down 3.7%, and WTI crude at $63.6 per barrel, down 2.5% [44][45] Interest Rates and Debt - As of February 6, 2026, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds are 1.3207%, 1.5552%, and 1.8102%, respectively, with slight fluctuations compared to January 30 [4][59] - A total of 256.6 billion yuan in new local government bonds is planned for issuance in the week of February 9, 2026 [49]

平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 宏 2026 年 2 月 8 日 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 1 周） 二手房挂牌价恢复 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周春节临近，工业生产环比大多季节性走弱，工业品 价格指数环比回落。不过，年初以来二手房挂牌价逐步止跌，外贸港口吞 吐量及韩国、越南 1 月出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需支撑增强。 1. 工业：本周生产环比季节性走弱。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量提 升，部分化工品开工率环比提升；水泥熟料产能利用率、浮法玻璃开工率、 石油沥青开工率、钢铁建材表观需求环比回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织 聚酯开工率、织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工率、全钢胎开工 率环比回落。 2. 地产：二手房挂牌价抬升。1）销售方面，本周（截至 2 月 6 日）30 大中 城市新房销售面积同比快速增长，去年同期基数受春节假期拖累；年初以 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector remains at a high level of prosperity, with oil tanker market conditions particularly strong due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions impacting oil supply [6][17] - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stocks that provide stable dividend assets, with a recommendation for Wanhua Express [18] - The aviation industry shows an upward trend in fundamentals for 2026, with significant increases in passenger volume and ticket prices during the Spring Festival [21][34] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a return to mid-to-high single-digit growth rates in 2026, with a focus on valuation and competitive positioning [20][21] Shipping Sector Summary - Oil tanker market conditions are buoyed by geopolitical risks, with VLCC rates at $124,000/day, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [13][55] - The dry bulk market has seen fluctuations, with the BDI index at 1923 points, down 10.5% week-on-week [53] - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][17] Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data shows significant growth in freight traffic, with road truck traffic at 56.83 million vehicles, a 506.1% year-on-year increase [18][59] - Port throughput reached 281.597 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [18][59] - The report suggests focusing on stable cash flow assets in the port sector, highlighting their current undervaluation [18] Aviation Sector Summary - During the Spring Festival, passenger traffic increased by 8.3% year-on-year, with domestic ticket prices rising by 6.1% [21][34] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of profit elasticity for the aviation industry due to improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices [34] - The report emphasizes monitoring Spring Festival data and its impact on market sentiment [34] Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.6% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with a slowdown expected in 2026 [20][21] - The report highlights the competitive landscape and the potential for valuation recovery in the sector [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [21]