智通财经APP获悉，6月20日，香港政府统计处发布2025年第一季香港国际收支平衡及国际投资头寸的 初步统计数字，并一并发布同期的香港对外债务的初步统计数字。香港于2025年第一季录得854亿港元 的国际收支赤字（相当于本地生产总值的10.7%），而储备资产相应地减少同等数额。2024年第四季则 录得314亿港元的盈余（相当于本地生产总值的3.8%）。 经常账户 2025年第一季的经常账户录得1252亿港元盈余（相当于本地生产总值的15.7%），这反映香港储蓄多于 投资，令其累积对外金融资产（例如股本证券或债务证券），在环球金融波动时提供缓冲。与2024年第 一季的953亿港元经常账户盈余（相当于本地生产总值的12.4%）比较，盈余增加主要是由于初次收入 净流入和服务贸易盈余增加所致。 在2025年第一季季末，香港的对外金融资产和负债总值均处于很高的水平，分别为544851亿港元（相当 于本地生产总值的17.0倍）和375622亿港元（相当于本地生产总值的11.7倍），这是一个重要国际金融 中心常见的特点。 在2025年第一季季末，香港的对外金融资产净值（即资产扣除负债）达169229亿港元（相当于本地生产 ...

Financial Collaboration - Shanghai and Hong Kong signed the "Action Plan for Collaborative Development of International Financial Centers," focusing on 38 measures to enhance financial market connectivity and cross-border financial services innovation [1] - The plan prioritizes optimizing the Bond Connect and Swap Connect mechanisms, aiming to establish Shanghai and Hong Kong as global centers for RMB asset allocation and risk management [1] Macro Dynamics - The People's Bank of China announced the establishment of an interbank market trading report database to collect and analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized strengthening the linkage between stocks and bonds to support technological innovation, promoting the development of technology innovation bonds and related financial products [3][4] Green Finance Initiatives - The People's Bank of China plans to pilot green foreign debt policies to encourage eligible enterprises to utilize foreign debt for green projects [6] Regional Financial Developments - The Ministry of Finance allocated a new local government debt limit of 2,334 billion yuan for Henan Province in 2025, with specific limits for general and special debts [8] - Shanghai plans to issue 68 billion yuan in special bonds for urban infrastructure projects [9] Financial Market Updates - The financial situation in Henan Province showed a loan balance of 92,521.6 billion yuan as of the end of May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [10] - The Hainan branch of the People's Bank of China is supporting local banks in issuing technology innovation financial bonds [12] Bond Issuance Activities - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 3.71 billion yuan in renewable corporate bonds with an interest rate of 2.57% [14] - The Henan Zhongyuan Expressway Company is in the process of registering a public bond issuance of up to 40 billion yuan [13] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment indicates a noticeable supportive attitude from the central bank, with discussions around the potential resumption of bond purchases and the inclusion of short-term government bonds in reserve requirements [19]

The President of the Swiss National Bank said the strong Swiss franc was one factor influencing the SNB's decision to cut its interest rate to zero. Martin Schlegel also said that Switzerland was ready to intervene in the FX market if necessary. Schlegel spoke with Bloomberg’s Bastian Benrath in Zurich. 00:00 - SNB interest rate decision 00:58 - Swiss franc, currency 01:52 - Oil prices, inflation, effect on economy, intervention in FX market, monetary policy 04:55 - Tariffs, trade, impact on Swiss economy 0 ...

June 15, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea A Détente, Not a Deal: The State of US-China Trade While media headlines may have suggested last week's trade agreement between the US and China was a breakthrough, we think investors need to see it more as a détente than a comprehensive deal. The agreement represents a tactical pause in escalating tensions rather than a resolution of fundamental disagreements. Why view it this way? Consider: This limited deal aligns with Mo ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or assets discussed Core Insights - Uncertainty surrounding US tax and trade policy, along with significant US dollar weakness, suggests a potential global shift away from US dollar-denominated assets [1] - The cross-currency (XCCY) basis market can be utilized to gauge demand for US dollars and related assets, indicating a trend where investors show less interest in USD-denominated assets while favoring EUR and JPY assets [7][15] - The report anticipates that the tightening trend in the XCCY basis will persist until Federal Reserve rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets on a foreign exchange-hedged basis [16][97] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - In times of global market stress, investors typically seek safe haven currencies, with the USD historically reinforcing comfort in USD-denominated assets [8] - Post "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, the USD showed unusual depreciation against other currencies, raising questions about its safe haven status [11][68] XCCY Basis Market Dynamics - The XCCY basis reflects offshore demand for long-term USD funding and onshore demand for non-USD-denominated assets [7][14] - Recent movements in the XCCY basis indicate a reduced appetite for USD-denominated assets and an increased interest in EUR and JPY assets [15][16] - The report outlines key drivers of the XCCY basis, including supply and demand factors for both currencies, with negative spreads indicating a premium for borrowing USD [22][24] Key Drivers of XCCY Basis - Short-term drivers include USD liquidity, regulatory constraints, and demand for foreign assets, while medium- to long-term drivers focus on overseas asset demand and issuance-related factors [25][35][46] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the XCCY basis as it provides high-frequency signals regarding foreign demand for USD and USD-denominated assets [65][77] Recent Market Observations - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, negative CCY/SOFR basis swap spreads widened but quickly normalized, indicating limited investor flight to quality [78][82] - The report suggests that diminished demand for USD among offshore investors may be occurring, with US investors showing increased interest in overseas assets [85][96]

June 18, 2025 07:37 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Pan's Plan for RMB in A Multipolar Monetary World Key Takeaways The remark by PBoC Governor at today's Lujiazui Forum highlights steady steps towards RMB internationalization and a broader advocate for a multipolar global financial system. The governor cited: (1) the tension between self-interest and provision of global public goods; (2) spillover of domestic policy; and (3) weaponization of currency in geopolitical competition. Rather than enjoying ...

央视网消息：6月18日在陆家嘴论坛上发布的多项重要政策，将推动我国金融开放再提速。这些政策如何理解？哪些值得大家特别关注？ 来听总台央视记者王雷财经老王给我们"划重点"。 重点一：上海将设立数字人民币国际运营中心 这一举措可谓意义非凡。这意味着以后数字人民币在跨境金融中的使用率会大大提升，交易成本也能减少。但更重要的是，这更是人民币 走向国际舞台的重要一步，人民币的国际影响力也会得到增强。 重点四：上海国际金融中心建设要提速 金融监管总局将与上海市政府联合发布《支持上海国际金融中心建设行动方案》，鼓励上海在科技金融、跨境金融等领域开展创新试点。 这一行动方案的发布，意味着上海建设国际金融中心从战略层面有了更清晰的方案，建设将会明显提速。 老王认为，这波政策释放出一个重要积极信号：中国金融开放的大门正在越开越大，这也彰显了我国在金融领域积极拥抱世界、不断创新 发展的决心。中国充满活力和潜力的超大规模市场，过去是、现在是、将来也必然是全球金融机构展业兴业的沃土。 中国证监会明确表态，将在科创板设置科创成长层。有了成长层，硬科技企业不盈利也能上市，科创企业有了上市的绿色通道，在资本市 场融资更加畅通了！ 重点三：国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan" aims to enhance cooperation and connectivity between Shanghai and Hong Kong, leveraging their complementary strengths as financial centers [1] Group 1: Collaborative Development - The Action Plan serves as a framework to optimize existing connectivity, expanding the range of products included, such as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and RMB counters [1] - The collaboration is expected to improve liquidity in both markets through enhanced interconnectivity [1] - Hong Kong is positioned to better serve mainland enterprises, facilitating their international ventures and providing essential services like risk management and legal support [1] Group 2: Digital Assets and Regulations - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation" was passed in May and will take effect on August 1, emphasizing the need for anti-money laundering measures and investor protection in digital asset regulation [1] - A second digital asset policy declaration is set to be released by the government, focusing on integrating digital assets with the real economy [1] - The possibility of stablecoins being pegged to the Renminbi is not ruled out, but it requires careful consideration of national exchange rates and monetary policy [2]

投研笔记 热点 6月18日A股探底回升，三大指数小幅上涨，但个股跌多涨少，超3400只股票下跌，成交额1.19万亿元。 PCB、军工装备、AI眼镜等板块领涨，美容护理、脑机接口等板块下跌。银行股因防御属性受资金青 睐；啤酒板块反弹，夏季消费旺季将至；军贸板块因地缘冲突升温大涨；非银金融板块因避险情绪走 弱。PCB概念股集体爆发，受Meta新一代AI芯片需求刺激；AI算力板块全线走强。拓普集团因马斯克 透露机器人新进展上涨3%。市场热点轮动较快，资金偏向防御性板块和科技成长方向。 01 A股复盘 益研究 6月18日，市场全天探底回升，三大指数小幅上涨。沪深两市全天成交额1.19万亿，较上个交易日缩量 161亿。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少，全市场超3400只个股下跌。 板块方面，PCB、CPO、军工装备、AI眼镜等板块涨幅居前，美容护理、草甘膦、稀土永磁、脑机接口 等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.04%，深成指涨0.24%，创业板指涨0.23%。 资料来源：益研究 02 行业热点 01 银行股早盘普涨 防御属性受资金青睐 今日早盘银行板块表现强势，上海银行、浦发银行等多家银行股价上涨。分析认为，近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The digital banking space is identified as an attractive investment arena, with a focus on companies like Alkami Technology and Q2 Holdings, which are modernizing customer-facing software for credit unions and regional banks [1][3]. Company Summaries - **Alkami Technology**: - Rated as Overweight by the analyst, with organic revenue growth exceeding 20% and trading at six times EV/Sales for 2026E [4]. - Holds less than 5% market share in a ~$10 billion market, with up to 60% of the market being an addressable opportunity [3]. - Benefits from high customer retention and long contract lengths, supporting revenue visibility [1]. - **Q2 Holdings**: - Also rated as Overweight, with similar characteristics to Alkami Technology in terms of customer retention and contract lengths [1]. - Holds less than 10% market share in the same ~$10 billion market, with significant growth potential [3]. - **nCino**: - Rated as Neutral, focusing on cloud-based banking software solutions for financial institutions [2]. - The analyst has noted idiosyncratic factors that have kept her on the sidelines regarding nCino compared to broader vertical SaaS [2]. Market Dynamics - The digital banking industry is characterized by a defensive monetization model based on the number of bank accounts and products subscribed to by banks [2]. - The opportunity for improving bank efficiency is described as seemingly limitless, indicating a strong growth potential for the sector [2]. Price Actions - As of publication, stock prices are as follows: - Alkami Technology (ALKT) is up 5.26% at $28.24 - Q2 Holdings (QTWO) is up 3.56% at $89.07 - nCino (NCNO) is down 0.44% at $26.96 [5].