生猪日报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 【生猪日报】供应压力继续体现 现货价格回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： 研究所 农产品研发报告 研究所 农产品研发报告 预计仍将以偏弱为主，在总体存栏维持高位的大背景下，预计猪价仍有一定压力。 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/11/3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.29 | 12.62 | -0.33 | 山西（-100） | 11.96 | 12.28 | -0.32 | | 湖北（0） | 11.90 | 12.34 | -0.44 | 辽 宁 | 12.17 | 12.48 | -0.31 | | 安徽（200） | 12.37 | 12.62 | -0.25 | 吉林（-30 ...

北京商报讯（记者 郭秀娟 王悦彤） 11月3日，牧原股份在投资者互动平台回答投资者提问称，二级市 场股价受多种因素影响。公司会持续做好经营管理，更好地为股东创造回报。目前公司屠宰肉食业务服 务的客户主要为大型农批经销商、连锁商超、连锁餐饮、食品加工企业、新零售企业等B端客户，没有 向肉制品深加工业务拓展的计划。未来公司聚焦主业，持续降本增效，提升发展质量，同时会探索海外 发展、联农助农等业务，为公司开拓新的增长空间。 ...

期价震荡偏弱，空头主导 摘 要： 行情展望： 供应端来看，随着规模场出栏计划逐步增加，市场猪 源供应趋于宽松，同时二次育肥进场积极性减弱，屠宰企 业收购顺畅，压价心态增强。需求端来看，终端消费尚未 出现明显提振，屠宰企业目前仍以鲜销为主，主动分割入 库意愿不强，普遍维持较高的鲜销率。综合来看，生猪价 格维持缓慢下跌走势，生猪主力LH2601合约跌破5日均线 关键支撑位，MACD 绿柱持续放大，技术形态偏向弱势， 短期下行压力仍存。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控 动态等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专 ...

1. Overall Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and may fall further, with potential support at 4000 - 4100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures are also under pressure, expected to test 8500 - 8600 yuan for support. Overall, a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [1]. - Soybean oil: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The overall supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, but due to factors such as high Brazilian soybean prices and potential factory shutdowns, the spot basis quote has limited short - term fluctuation space [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: Currently, the supply is abundant, and the price is in a downward channel. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the new - season cost price of 2050 yuan. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance pattern with policy support [2]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2601 has increased slightly, and the market situation is affected by the corn market [2]. 2.3 Meal Products - Meal products: The expectation of China purchasing US soybeans has increased, and the domestic cost support remains. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and poor crushing margins, the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - Live pigs: The market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. There may be short - term support from secondary fattening, but there will be increased supply pressure in November and December, and the futures market is following the spot market down [7]. 2.5 Sugar - Sugar: The expected increase in supply surplus and weak energy prices have led to a weakening of raw sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are also under pressure but have cost support at around 5400 yuan, and the market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [10]. 2.6 Cotton - Cotton: The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [12]. 2.7 Eggs - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually rise, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8400 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8128 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.49%); the basis was 272 yuan, up 40 yuan (17.24%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Guangdong was 8700 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.57%); the futures price of P2601 was 8764 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 0.72%); the basis was - 64 yuan, up 14 yuan (17.95%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.51%); the futures price of O1601 was 9422 yuan, down 107 yuan (- 1.12%); the basis was 328 yuan, up 57 yuan (21.03%) [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On November 3, the flat - hatch price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port was 2130 yuan, up 19 yuan (0.90%); the basis was 0 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 100.00%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 97 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.90%) [2]. - **Corn starch**: On November 3, the price of corn starch 2601 was 2440 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.87%); the basis was 70 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 23.08%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.70%) [2]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3020 yuan, up 50 yuan (1.68%); the futures price of M2601 was 3021 yuan, up 27 yuan (0.90%); the basis was - 1 yuan, up 23 yuan (95.83%) [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.40%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2388 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 82 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.80%) [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of live pigs 2605 was 11895 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of live pigs 2601 was 11815 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.55%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 300.00%) [7]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with the price in Henan at 12500 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price in Shandong at 12550 yuan, unchanged; etc [7]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of sugar 2601 was 5483 yuan, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5413 yuan, up 6 yuan (0.11%); the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan, up 5 yuan (7.69%) [10]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); the Nanning basis was 337 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 1.75%); the Kunming basis was 297 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 5.11%) [10]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of cotton 2605 was 13605 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13595 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 5 - 1 spread was 10 yuan, unchanged [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14674 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.11%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14860 yuan, up 17 yuan (0.11%); the 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1069 yuan, up 21 yuan (2.00%) [12]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3146 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 0.35%); the price of the egg 01 - contract was 3318 yuan, down 35 yuan (- 1.04%); the basis was - 203 yuan, up 21 yuan (9.39%); the 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, up 24 yuan (12.24%) [14]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.80 yuan, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled hen price was 4.11 yuan, down 0.18 yuan (- 4.20%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.35, up 0.04 (1.73%); the breeding profit was - 26.10 yuan, up 2.61 yuan (9.09%) [14].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting rural revitalization and enhancing the quality of rural development through various initiatives across different cities in Guangdong province [11][19][25][35][43]. - Shantou is focusing on creating a connected landscape belt that integrates scenic spots and industrial bases, aiming for a clean and beautiful environment [11][14]. - Foshan is working on strengthening grassroots teams and expanding new paths for rural collective economy development [19][22]. Group 2 - Shantou is implementing the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages High-Quality Development Project" to enhance rural areas and promote urbanization [25][32]. - Dongguan is pushing for comprehensive land remediation and promoting industrial agglomeration through tailored strategies [35][38]. - Jiangmen is emphasizing the development of a marine economy and enhancing regional coordination [43][42]. Group 3 - Yangjiang is leveraging its "selenium-rich" resources to enhance local specialty products and improve rural construction and ecological development [49][51]. - Chaozhou is focusing on developing characteristic agriculture and marine economy while improving urban and rural landscapes [57][59]. - Yulin is aiming to create a high-quality development hub for the livestock industry and modern agricultural innovation [65][69].

Group 1 - On November 3, Muyuan Foods conducted a block trade of 39,500 shares, with a transaction value of 2.022 million yuan, accounting for 0.08% of the total trading volume for the day [1][2] - The transaction price was 51.19 yuan, which was in line with the market closing price of 51.19 yuan [1][2] - The buyer of the shares was CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., while the seller was CITIC Securities South China Co., Ltd. [2]

格隆汇11月3日丨神农集团(605296.SH)公布，截至2025年10月31日，公司本次回购已累计回购股份 658.06万股，占公司当前总股本的比例为1.25%，已支付的总金额为1.80亿元（不含印花税、交易佣金 等交易费用）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on reducing its reliance on soybean by utilizing soybean meal as a feed ingredient, which currently accounts for about 7% of its feed usage this year [1] Group 1: Feed Ingredient Strategy - The company does not directly purchase soybeans but uses soybean meal as a feed raw material [1] - The company plans to adjust its feed nutritional formula flexibly based on market trends of feed raw materials while ensuring optimal nutrition for its pig herd [1] - There is potential for further reduction in the use of soybean meal in the company's feed, which will be determined by the prices of soybean meal and amino acids [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company is applying low-soy diets technology by substituting soybean meal with bio-synthesized amino acids to enhance the economic efficiency of its feed formulations [1] - The company aims to continue exploring low-soy diet technologies by leveraging advancements in synthetic biology [1] - The initiative is part of the company's contribution to the national food security strategy by reducing dependence on soybean imports [1]

受二育补栏提振，国内生猪价格近期有所企稳。但往后看，二次育肥补栏高峰已过，对猪价的影响也将 由利多转向利空。因此，由于未来两个月，即11月至12月的两轮出栏均会加码供应，这意味着这两个月 猪价欲破新阶段高点，需要消费端的强有力支撑。但考虑到2026年春节时间较晚等因素，猪价上涨缺乏 屠宰端增量支撑，预计猪价刷年内新高的可能性不大。 具体来看，根据农业农村部监测全国能繁母猪存栏和卓创资讯对能繁母猪存栏量在200头以上规模企业 能繁母猪数据推算，11-12月生猪理论供应量或连续增加。这具体表现在，一方面，根据近7年屠宰量季 节性走势分析，11-12月生猪屠宰量或呈逐步增量的走势，其中11月增幅较小，12月增幅较大。另一方 面，10月规模场前期放量出栏，猪价与散户价差较小，出栏压力较小，月度出栏进度较快，下旬部分养 殖场选择将下月出栏计划提前至10月出栏，因此11月上旬养殖端出栏节奏或偏慢，11月中旬至12月底或 逐步加快。尤其是12月腌腊旺季一般是大猪需求高峰期，养殖端也会选择在这期间集中出栏大体重猪 源，12月供应量增幅或超过11月。 因此，根据理论出栏量与理论屠宰量走势分析，11-12月生猪市场或供增需增，理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 40th Shandong Livestock Expo showcases Longda Food's strategic positioning in the high-end meat sector, particularly through its premium black pork brand "Longda Heitianpeng" based on the Longda Black Pig [1] Group 1: Product Development - Longda Food has developed the Longda Black Pig by selectively breeding various local black pig breeds, resulting in a hybrid that combines desirable traits from both domestic and European pig breeds [2] - The Longda Black Pig is noted for its rich content of unsaturated fatty acids and sulfur-containing amino acids, providing consumers with a healthier meat option [2] Group 2: Farming Practices - Longda Food has established specialized black pig breeding bases in the Jiaodong Peninsula, utilizing a "self-raising + contract farming" model to enhance its breeding network [2] - The company leverages the region's agricultural advantages by incorporating natural fruits like apples and pears into the pigs' diet, improving feed quality and imparting a unique sweetness to the pork [2] Group 3: Quality Control - The "Longda Heitianpeng" brand is built on a comprehensive management system that ensures quality from breeding to consumption, adhering to a "six unification" standard [5] - Longda Food implements rigorous pathogen risk assessments and maintains traceability throughout the supply chain, ensuring product safety and quality stability [5] - The company employs low-temperature aging and precise cutting techniques, along with a cold chain logistics system, to preserve the flavor and nutritional value of the meat [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Longda Food aims to leverage its full industry chain advantages to advance its high-end meat business, with ongoing investments in the Longda Black Pig breed and the Longda Heitianpeng brand [5] - The company is committed to enhancing its industry chain construction to contribute to the high-quality development of the livestock sector [5]