Group 1 - The report highlights that both Chinese and US stock markets are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by optimistic investor expectations regarding future corporate capital returns. A-shares are pricing in a stabilization of ROE at historical lows, while US stocks are anticipating continued growth in ROE from already high levels [3][12][14] - Since Q4 2021, A-shares have faced declining capital returns due to intense competition amid trends of "de-financialization" and "de-real estate," while US stocks have benefited from government debt expansion stimulating demand, resulting in higher ROE [3][14][17] - The report anticipates a shift in trends, with US capital returns potentially facing downward pressure due to tax policies encouraging manufacturing investment and capital repatriation, while A-shares may see a recovery in capital returns driven by anti-involution policies, stronger overseas manufacturing activity, and a halt in debt contraction [3][4][17] Group 2 - Three key catalysts for the stabilization and recovery of A-share capital returns are identified: anti-involution policies, overseas manufacturing activity surpassing service sector growth, and the end of the debt repayment cycle [4][23][31] - The report provides an example from the cement industry, where current operational rates are at their lowest since 2019, and a rebound in price indices is expected by late 2024, indicating a potential recovery in ROE [4][23][25] - The report notes that the demand for domestic capital goods and intermediate products is expected to rise due to stronger overseas manufacturing activity compared to services, with significant rebounds in excavator sales and steel exports observed [4][27][29] Group 3 - The current market pricing indicates that short-term stock prices have outpaced ROE, necessitating a buffer for uncertainty in recovery rhythms. The report emphasizes that the internal industry structure is more critical than the overall market [5][36] - The report discusses the historical context of PB (Price-to-Book) ratios, noting that the current PB levels are not extreme compared to historical standards, but the low absolute level of ROE may affect the pace of PB recovery [5][36][38] - A significant reduction in the proportion of stocks with low PB ratios has been observed, particularly in sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), high-end manufacturing, and banking, while traditional industries still show a high percentage of low PB stocks [5][38][40] Group 4 - The report suggests that the dynamics of capital returns are shifting, with domestic capital returns expected to stabilize and rise, while overseas capital returns may decline. This shift positions A-shares as more attractive compared to other markets [6][46] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic anti-involution policies, as well as emphasizing equity over debt investments [6][46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current strong resonance between Chinese and American stock markets reflects optimistic expectations for future corporate capital returns, with A-shares stabilizing from historical lows and U.S. stocks maintaining high ROE levels [1][2] - The three main catalysts for stabilizing and recovering capital returns in A-shares are: (1) anti-involution leading to stabilization in industries previously constrained by excessive capital expansion, (2) overseas manufacturing demand exceeding service sector demand, and (3) the end of debt contraction cycles [2][3] - The current market pricing indicates that short-term stock prices are ahead of ROE, which aligns with historical bottoming characteristics, and while the absolute level of PB is not extreme, the low absolute level of ROE affects the elasticity and pace of PB recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The future state of capital returns is expected to shift, with domestic capital returns stabilizing and overseas capital returns potentially declining due to the combination of anti-involution, cessation of debt contraction, and the development of overseas manufacturing [4][5] - The relative advantage of the "barbell strategy" may diminish as ROE gradually recovers, with traditional industries such as coal, oil, steel, and utilities showing a higher proportion of low PB stocks compared to TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Recommendations for asset allocation include focusing on upstream resource products and capital goods benefiting from increased overseas demand and domestic anti-involution policies, as well as exploring opportunities in new consumption sectors like hospitality and retail [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current real estate market is experiencing a phase of valuation recovery, supported by policy expectations, with potential for further upside in the coming weeks [3][7][24] - The banking sector is expected to maintain a trend of upward momentum, driven by high dividend yields and stable operational logic, despite recent market fluctuations [6][21][23] Market Perspectives - The upcoming economic data release on July 15 is anticipated to show resilience, with GDP growth expected to be in the range of 5.1% to 5.3%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [4][14][18] - The divergence in CPI and PPI trends suggests a potential for mild price improvements, which could positively impact the market if the GDP growth exceeds expectations [4][14][15] Industry Allocation - The banking sector is projected to see a significant increase in dividend yields, with short-term expectations of a rise of 0.3% to 0.62% before August, and a further increase of 0.6% to 1.21% by early 2026 [6][21][23] - The real estate sector is currently in a typical down-cycle phase, with historical patterns suggesting a potential for a 5% to 15% increase in the index over the next month, driven by policy easing [7][24][26] Specific Opportunities - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. Banks and insurance companies with strong dividend stability and long-term capital inflow [30] 2. Real estate stocks benefiting from anticipated policy easing [30] 3. Sectors with robust demand support, including rare earths, precious metals, and agricultural chemicals [31]

Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to outperform the market, with a focus on high-quality leading companies and structural growth opportunities [15][5][24] - The industry is undergoing a transformation driven by domestic upgrades, self-sufficiency, and accelerated overseas development [15][20] Industry Overview and Outlook - The core equipment localization is fundamental for the rise of the industry, breaking through bottlenecks in high-end equipment is essential for true autonomy and industrialization [15] - The trend of industrial upgrading is inevitable, with advancements in digitalization and energy transformation enhancing social efficiency and reducing costs [15] - The development of exports is transitioning from point to surface, with competitive manufacturing enterprises moving from import substitution to export substitution [15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on emerging growth sectors and export-driven leading companies, particularly in areas such as humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and coal chemical equipment [25][26] - Key recommended stocks include Huace Testing, Guodian Measurement, and Yizhiming, among others [24][2] Key Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment, including: - Humanoid Robots: Hengli Hydraulic, Huichuan Technology, and Zhenyu Technology [26] - AI Infrastructure: Yingliu Technology and Haomai Technology [28] - Engineering Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic, XCMG, and Sany Heavy Industry [29] - Nuclear Power Equipment: Jiadian Co., Zhongmi Holdings, and Jiangsu Shentong [29] - General Equipment: Huichuan Technology, Green Harmonic, and Baichu Electronics [29] Performance Tracking - In June, the mechanical industry index rose by 2.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.32 percentage points, with stable valuation levels [6][11] - The manufacturing PMI index for June was reported at 49.70%, indicating a slight improvement [6][12] Financial Projections - The report provides forecasts for key companies, indicating resilience in operations, with expected revenue and profit growth across various sectors [31] - For example, Hengli Hydraulic is projected to achieve a revenue of 27.68 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 7.96 billion yuan [31]

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/07/07-2025/07/11）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数上涨 1.87%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 15；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 0.82%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 10.32%，在申万 3 1 个一级行业分类中排名第 8；同期沪深 300 指数上涨 2.03%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 造船价企稳回升，中国船舶 Q2 业绩高增，看好当前低估的船舶龙头。2025 年 6 月，全球新造船价格指数为 18 7.11，环比+0.22%，新船价格已经走出了环比连续下滑的趋势，行业景气度边际改善。此外，7 月 10 日中国船 舶发布中报业绩预告，25H1 实现归母净利润 28-31 亿元，同比增长 98.25-119.49%，既印证了行业景气度上行， 也证明了公司具备较强的业绩释放能力。同时伴随着"南北船"重组加速，中国船舶未来全球竞争力和盈利能 力有望进一步提升，当前 PE 仅 22x，显著低估，当前时点建议重点关注。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects continued growth in domestic earthmoving machinery market demand in the second half of the year, with overall sales of excavators and loaders projected to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth [1] Industry Summary - Economic fiscal policy environment and various structural demands will create opportunities for the industry [1] - The international market faces challenges from a resurgence of global trade protectionism, with overall demand still in a bottoming phase [1] - A gradual recovery is anticipated by 2026, with ongoing regional differentiation [1] - Growth in emerging markets is expected to remain resilient, driven by trends in new energy and technological upgrades, while development opportunities in mature markets are also worth noting [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the engineering machinery and shipbuilding sectors, emphasizing the importance of new technology iterations in lithium battery equipment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector shows resilience in domestic sales and continued high demand for exports, with excavator sales in June 2025 reaching 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13% [2]. - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a recovery in sentiment, with a significant increase in the order backlog, and Chinese shipbuilding companies are expected to see substantial profit growth in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The solid-state battery equipment sector is in a trial production phase, with equipment manufacturers actively validating and iterating technologies, anticipating a large-scale verification period in the second half of 2025 [3][20]. - The railway transportation sector is benefiting from steady growth in fixed asset investment, with China Railway's profits expected to increase significantly in the first half of 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Engineering Machinery - Domestic excavator sales in June 2025 reached 8,136 units, a 6% year-on-year increase, while exports totaled 10,668 units, up 19% [2]. - The sector is expected to maintain considerable growth due to government funding and increasing demand from emerging markets [2]. Shipbuilding Industry - The new ship price index remains high, with a 20% year-on-year increase in the order backlog [3]. - Chinese shipbuilding companies are projected to achieve net profits of 2.8 to 3.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 98% to 119% [3]. Solid-State Battery Equipment - The solid-state battery sector is expected to enter a large-scale verification phase in late 2025, with significant demand for new equipment arising from the transition to dry processing methods [20][21]. - Key players in the solid-state battery equipment market include leading suppliers like Xian Dao Intelligent and Hangke Technology [22]. Railway Transportation - As of May 2025, China's railway fixed asset investment reached 242.1 billion yuan, a 6% year-on-year increase [4]. - China Railway is expected to report a net profit of 6.72 to 7.56 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60% to 80% [4].

Core Viewpoint - LiuGong (000528) reported growth in both revenue and profit in the European region for the first half of the year, indicating a positive outlook for its overseas market development [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue and profit in the European region increased year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - LiuGong is enhancing its sales and channel network in key markets [1] - The company is transitioning from an international strategy to a global strategy, focusing on localizing its operations through supply chain, global R&D centers, sales networks, financial services, and manufacturing bases [1] - This strategic shift aims to ensure stable and high-quality growth in overseas business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Noli Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. is focusing on upgrading from traditional manual handling vehicles to new energy vehicles and further expanding into embodied intelligent robots, aiming to provide higher quality products and services [2][3]. Company Overview - Noli Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. was established in 2000, with its main production base located in Changxing, Zhejiang [3]. - The company has overseas production capabilities, having established factories in Malaysia in 2013 and Vietnam in 2019, becoming the first forklift manufacturer in the industry to have overseas production capacity [3]. - Noli was listed in 2015 and has since focused on the development of Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) in collaboration with Shanghai Jiao Tong University [3]. Recent Developments - The company held an investor conference call on July 3, 2025, discussing its strategic direction and future plans [2]. - The ongoing construction of the fifth phase factory in Changxing is expected to have a total capacity of 50,000 large vehicles, with the first phase of 30,000 vehicles anticipated to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year [2][4]. - Noli has been actively pursuing the development of embodied intelligent logistics robots and has hired robotics experts while collaborating with Zhejiang University’s Robotics Research Institute [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the previous year, the company reported revenue exceeding 6.9 billion RMB, with the forklift segment contributing 3.7 billion RMB, and the integrated segment generating approximately 3.2 billion RMB [3]. - The acquisition of Zhongding Intelligent in 2016 and the acquisition of French company SAVOYE in 2019 have been pivotal in transforming Noli into a comprehensive logistics production solution provider [3]. Market Position - As of July 11, 2025, Noli's stock price reached 22.75 RMB, reflecting a 6.16% increase from the previous week, with a market capitalization of 5.86 billion RMB [1]. - The company ranks 17th out of 28 in the engineering machinery sector and 2669th out of 5149 in the overall A-share market [1].

Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of approximately CNY 1.18 to 1.28 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 30% [3] - The domestic earthmoving machinery industry has shown significant recovery, with excavator domestic sales increasing by 22.9% and loader domestic sales increasing by 23.2% in the first half of 2025 [3] Market Outlook - The domestic market for earthmoving machinery is anticipated to continue its growth momentum, with overall industry sales expected to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth [3] - The international market is facing challenges due to global trade protectionism, but is expected to gradually recover in 2026, with emerging markets showing resilience [3] Corporate Governance - The company's board restructuring has not altered its strategic execution, market-oriented operations, or incentive mechanisms, maintaining a focus on enhancing market competitiveness and shareholder returns [4] Incentive Plans - The company has exceeded its performance assessment indicators for 2024, with the first phase of the stock option incentive plan set to unlock on July 14, 2025 [5] - A market-oriented executive compensation system is in place to strengthen management execution and promote long-term growth in operational performance and market value [5] International Strategy - The company has seen growth in revenue and profit in the European market, focusing on enhancing sales and channel networks while promoting ESG initiatives and electric, intelligent products [6] - Future plans include upgrading from an international strategy to a global strategy, ensuring stable and high-quality growth in overseas markets through localized supply chains and R&D centers [7] Competitive Landscape - The domestic electric loader market is experiencing increased price competition, with the company maintaining a higher price level for electric loaders due to its technological advantages [8] - The company advocates for healthy competition in the industry, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation and product quality for sustainable development [8]