Core Insights - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals and new materials industry is currently in a high cost-performance investment phase, with expectations for continued growth [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index has seen a cumulative increase of 94.73% for the year, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 77.07 percentage points [1][13] - The industry is influenced by international dynamics and changes in supply patterns, with some metal prices reaching new highs [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing strategic competition between major powers like the US and China has made upstream metal resources a critical area of contention, leading to significant impacts on the stability of the metal supply chain [2] - Supply disruptions are expected to increase raw material costs, while tighter controls on strategic metals by various countries will further exacerbate price pressures [2] - The demand outlook for non-ferrous metals is clear, supported by long-term fundamentals [2] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights investment opportunities in precious metals, copper, and strategic metals, noting that gold has evolved into a strategic asset for managing systemic risks, with central banks likely to increase gold reserves [3] - The mining of copper is becoming increasingly challenging, with supply constraints supporting a long-term upward price trend [3] - The geopolitical competition is expected to lead to enhanced resource controls, creating structural investment opportunities in related sectors [3] Emerging Industries and Material Demand - Rapidly expanding sectors such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and high-end semiconductors are driving unprecedented demand for upstream materials, which are now classified as "key strategic materials" or "high-tech value-added new materials" [4] - The performance, purity, form, and functionality of materials are subject to increasingly stringent standards, indicating a fundamental shift in investment logic [4] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as copper, gold, and strategic metals, particularly in 2026, with an emphasis on leading companies that operate in high-growth areas with strong technological monopolies [5] - Specific companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, and Zhangyuan Tungsten [5]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term supply is expected to be loose, increasing the risk of high - level pressure on tin prices [4] - In February 2026, the Shanghai tin market is expected to show a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. High inventory is a potential risk, and any falsification of demand expectations or alleviation of supply concerns may trigger a rapid correction [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January 2026, the main contract of Shanghai tin started low and went high. It started from 326,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, accelerated after the landslide in the Congo - Kinshasa mining area on January 13th, reached a record high of 469,800 yuan/ton on the night session of January 29th, and ended the month oscillating around 432,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of over 35%. LME tin also reached a new high of $59,000/ton on January 29th [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The Shanghai tin market in February is expected to show a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. The sharp price increase is driven by the resonance of capital sentiment, industrial theme narratives, and macro - liquidity expectations. High inventory is a risk factor [6] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish in the short term. The supply resumption rhythm is advancing, and the long - term demand as a "computing power metal" provides support. Be vigilant against rapid corrections caused by changes in the macro - environment. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Since the fourth quarter of 2025, tin prices have shown a rapid upward trend with a maximum amplitude of 68.7%. The price increase in 2025 was mainly due to supply - side speculations in Myanmar, Congo (Kinshasa), and Indonesia. In January 2026, the tin market had a pattern of "partial supply release, weak demand recovery, and seasonal inventory accumulation". Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum. Demand was mainly for rigid needs, and overall consumption showed weak recovery [11] 3.2.2 Tight Supply at the Mine End - After the significant increase in tin ore imports from Myanmar in November, there are two interpretations of the increment. The second possibility (mine restoration and resumption) is more likely according to December data. In 2025, the cumulative imported tin ore metal from Myanmar decreased by 37.79% year - on - year, accounting for 18.62% of the total imports. In January, the import volume is expected to remain stable. Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining intensified supply concerns, but the sharp decline in exports in October was due to temporary license issues, which have been resolved. Indonesia is expected to increase its tin mining production quota by 13.2% in 2026. Congo (Kinshasa) has geopolitical risks [16][18] 3.2.3 Slight Decline in December Output, and Stable but Lacking Upward Momentum in January - In December 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 0.06% month - on - month, with an annual output of 178,700 tons, a 2.81% year - on - year decrease. In December, tin imports increased by 29.54% month - on - month but decreased by 48.24% year - on - year. Exports increased by 41.84% month - on - month and 32.58% year - on - year [23] 3.2.4 Terminal Consumption - Overall, tin consumption is at the bottom - building stage with weak consumption. - **Consumer Electronics**: Semiconductor sales showed a good growth trend. In 2025, the global semiconductor sales from January to November increased by 22.07% year - on - year. The global smartphone shipments increased by 1.75% in 2025, and China's mobile phone shipments from January to November increased by 1.30%. China's integrated circuit output increased by 9.73% in 2025 [30][33] - **Photovoltaic**: After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation, orders declined rapidly. In 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 14.22% year - on - year, but the single - month installed capacity in December decreased by 40.54% year - on - year. The cumulative output of photovoltaic modules from January to December decreased by 1.21% year - on - year [39][41] - **Tin Chemicals**: Tin chemicals mainly refer to PVC stabilizers, whose demand is closely related to real estate completion. In 2025, the real estate completion area decreased by 18.1% year - on - year, and the long - term consumption of tin chemicals may be affected [43] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In February, tin prices are expected to continue the high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. The price may be affected by factors such as the follow - up impact of the Congo - Kinshasa landslide, long - term demand in emerging fields, high inventory pressure, and supply resumption. The core operating range may be between 400,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include Myanmar's resumption progress, domestic smelter operations, electronic orders, emerging consumption, and inventory de - stocking speed [50]

Group 1 - Zijin Mining (02899) shares fell over 8%, currently down 8.63% at HKD 42.16, with a trading volume of HKD 6.971 billion [1] - The company announced plans to issue USD 1.5 billion zero-coupon secured convertible bonds maturing in 2031, with net proceeds of approximately USD 1.527 billion intended for capital expenditures on the Arriaga project in Peru, while the remainder will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes [1] - Reports indicate that the USD 1.5 billion convertible bonds were fully subscribed within 10 minutes [1] Group 2 - Citigroup released a report expressing a lack of confidence in recent copper price trends, suggesting that in the coming weeks, Chinese investors may further allocate or rotate funds into base metals to counter rising precious metal prices [1] - In the context of soaring silver and gold prices, copper prices could potentially rise to USD 15,000 to USD 16,000 per ton; however, Citigroup's baseline expectation is that copper prices will remain around USD 13,000 per ton by 2026, sufficient to achieve market supply-demand balance this year [1]

Market Overview - On January 30, the A-share market experienced a volatile correction, with the non-ferrous sector showing dramatic fluctuations, leading to significant declines in gold and non-ferrous ETFs, which approached their daily limit down before narrowing losses [1][3] - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) saw a drop of over 9%, which later reduced to 8%, with net subscriptions reaching 60 million units, translating to over 120 million yuan in net subscription amount [1] Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong due to factors such as de-dollarization, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts, although short-term pullback risks should be monitored [1][5] - Recent market dynamics saw COMEX gold futures reaching historical highs, while spot silver surged over 4%, and London copper prices jumped 8%, surpassing $14,000 per ton [3][5] Industrial Metals - The copper market is currently experiencing short-term emotional volatility, but the long-term logic remains intact, supported by tight supply and ongoing demand from AI and power grid construction [8] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain high volatility due to mixed macroeconomic signals, with domestic production increasing and inventory pressures mounting [8] Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is highlighted for its comprehensive coverage of various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, positioning it to benefit from the super cycle in non-ferrous metals [11][14] - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, and its valuation remains reasonable, indicating that price increases are driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion [16][17] Historical Trends - Historical patterns suggest that the non-ferrous sector is likely to continue its strong performance, particularly during the second phase of major market cycles, which is characterized by profit-driven price increases [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi government has made significant progress in addressing heavy metal environmental safety issues and promoting the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry, achieving a production value of 461 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [1] Group 1: Environmental Safety Measures - Guangxi has completed the inspection and rectification of heavy metal environmental hazards, effectively curbing pollution incidents [1] - A total of 1,919 heavy metal pollution sources were identified, with 1,564 sources rectified immediately, and 355 sources undergoing environmental risk assessment [1] - The province has focused on key river basins and industries, implementing a systematic approach to pollution source management [1] Group 2: Industrial Development Strategy - Guangxi is promoting the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry through a "five transformations" strategy, emphasizing ecological protection alongside industrial growth [2] - The government is leveraging both domestic and international markets to enhance resource allocation and is focusing on the integration of mining rights and the management of small and scattered enterprises [2] - The province has identified 2,612 mining rights and 2,411 mining-related enterprises, planning to implement targeted measures for closure, consolidation, and upgrading [2] Group 3: Accountability and Enforcement - Guangxi has initiated a ten-year retrospective investigation into heavy metal pollution and illegal mining, resulting in 56 cases related to pollution and 299 cases of illegal mining being filed [3] - The province has pursued ecological damage compensation, recovering 110 million yuan in damages through public interest litigation [3] - Local party organizations are actively involved in the inspection and rectification process, fostering a responsible atmosphere among officials [3] Group 4: Future Directions - Guangxi aims to continue its efforts in pollution control and the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry, focusing on integration, punishment, and quality enhancement [4] - The province is committed to a long-term battle against heavy metal pollution, striving to transform the region into a model for sustainable development in the non-ferrous metal sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical risks have led to a significant drop in global risk assets, yet there is a notable increase in investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in the Huabao ETF, which saw a net subscription of 142 million units despite a market downturn [1][9]. Group 1: Macro Factors - The Federal Reserve is still in a rate-cutting cycle, creating a loose monetary environment [3][11]. - Rising geopolitical uncertainties are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3][11]. - Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and deficits are prompting central banks worldwide to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings and increase gold reserves, leading to a diversification of reserve systems [3][11]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Emerging industries such as renewable energy, AI, and aerospace are continuously driving demand for non-ferrous metals [3][11]. - Capital expenditures for major non-ferrous metal types peaked in 2011 and have since entered a prolonged contraction phase, resulting in a significant output gap in the industry [3][11]. - Supply constraints persist, providing price support and highlighting the strategic value and scarcity of these metals [3][11]. Group 3: Performance Outlook - As of January 28, among the 60 listed companies covered by the non-ferrous ETF, 24 have released earnings forecasts for 2025, with 21 expected to be profitable, indicating a positive outlook for nearly 90% of the companies [3][11]. - The high profitability of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue for an extended period, with the sector gradually gaining growth attributes and deserving of a value reassessment [4][12]. - Domestic non-ferrous metal companies are valued lower compared to their overseas counterparts, despite having comparable growth potential and core competitiveness [4][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of non-ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the entire sector's beta performance [5][13]. - It is recommended to allocate 10%-20% of investment portfolios to the non-ferrous metals sector to benefit from price increases while diversifying risk [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) has successfully completed a subscription agreement and a placement agreement, with significant share allocations to various investors, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the company [1] Group 1: Subscription Agreement - On January 29, 2026, China Rare Earth Holdings completed a subscription agreement, fulfilling all conditions outlined in the agreement [1] - A total of 43.96 million shares were successfully issued at a subscription price of HKD 3.80 per share [1] - The shares were allocated to four different investors, including 10.26 million shares to Zijin Global Fund, 7.90 million shares to Luyin, 5.30 million shares to Oriental Jinye, and 20.50 million shares to Manna Lake [1] Group 2: Placement Agreement - The placement agreement was also completed on January 29, 2026, with all conditions met [1] - A total of 162 million shares were successfully placed at a price of HKD 3.80 per share [1] - The shares were placed with no fewer than six investors, indicating a broad interest in the company's equity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining announced plans to issue $1.5 billion zero-coupon guaranteed convertible bonds maturing in 2031, with an initial conversion price set at HKD 63.30 per share, representing a premium of approximately 37.19% over the last closing price of HKD 46.14 on January 29 [1] Group 1 - The net proceeds from the bond issuance are expected to be approximately $1.527 billion [1] - The funds raised will be allocated for capital expenditures related to the Arin project in Peru, with the remainder used for working capital and general corporate purposes [1]

Group 1 - The company, Zijin Mining (601899)(02899), announced a subscription agreement for the issuance of bonds totaling $1.5 billion, with a guarantee for timely payment of all amounts due under the trust deed and bond [1] - The bonds can be converted into H-shares at an initial conversion price of HKD 63.30 per share, representing a premium of approximately 37.19% over the last closing price of HKD 46.14 on January 29, 2026 [1] - If fully converted at the initial conversion price, the bonds will convert into approximately 185 million H-shares, accounting for about 3.09% of the existing issued H-shares and approximately 0.70% of the total issued shares as of the announcement date [1] Group 2 - After the bond issuance is completed, the net proceeds from the bond subscription, after deducting the underwriter's commission and other estimated expenses, will be approximately $1.527 billion [2]

Core Insights - The core message highlights the successful implementation of environmental safety measures and the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry in Guangxi, achieving a production value of 461 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 16.9% [1][2] Environmental Safety Measures - Since 2025, Guangxi has completed the inspection and rectification of heavy metal environmental hazards, effectively curbing heavy metal pollution incidents [1] - A total of 1,919 heavy metal pollution sources were identified for remediation, with 1,564 sources rectified immediately during the inspection process [1] - For the 355 sources that could not be immediately rectified, a classification system was established to implement tailored remediation plans [1] Industry Development - Guangxi has established a "ten-in-one" work mechanism for the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry, focusing on the integration of mining rights and comprehensive governance of small and scattered enterprises [2] - By 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry in Guangxi is expected to achieve a production value of 461 billion yuan, maintaining the highest added value in the industrial sector for four consecutive years [2] - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals is projected to reach 5.45 million tons, with significant outputs in tin, antimony, gallium, indium, nickel, and rare earth elements [2] Accountability and Enforcement - Guangxi is conducting a ten-year special action to investigate heavy metal pollution and illegal mining cases, enhancing the handling and review of major cases [2] - The government aims to continue efforts in remediation, punishment, integration, openness, and quality improvement to combat heavy metal pollution and promote the high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry [2]