AI"探电"系列：SOFC - AIDC 供电的新解法 20250827 摘要 北美数据中心备用电源首选仍为柴油发电机，因其 CAPEX 约为 1 美元/ 瓦，远低于气垫发电机和燃料电池。主电源方面，早期依赖并网，但因 资源紧缺和审批延长，离网模式兴起，探索自建主备供能系统。 2024 年初，大型核能曾被视为离网主电源优选，但因监管道德风险被 暂停。小型燃气轮机成为替代方案，尽管价格翻倍至 2 美元/瓦，但 LCOE 经济性使其得到广泛应用。 Bloom Energy 等燃料电池供应商获 Oracle 数据中心订单，交期 90 天， 总容量或达 1 吉瓦。虽 ITC 补贴后 CAPEX 仍高于柴油发电，但政策支 持和技术进步预示市场潜力。 风光等新能源因出力波动大，不适合作为数据中心主供能。小型核反应 堆（SMR）等新兴技术虽有潜力，但尚需验证和推广。 2025 年燃气轮机订单激增，一、二季度均达 20 吉瓦左右，导致大容量 燃气轮机产能饱和，交期延长至 3 年以上。数据中心转向采购航改型小 型燃气轮机，虽单位造价高，但交付周期短。 Q&A 北美数据中心在选择供电方式时有哪些主要考虑因素？ 北美数据中心在选择 ...

"如果不自主规划、建设，当地电力缺口会比较大。电力不足，就会影响矿山生产。现实情况是，刚果（金）能供应的电量相对有限，还常出现停电、限电 等情况。"洛阳钼业KFM铜钴矿（下称"KFM"）设备动力厂厂长助理李明洋向经济观察报表示。 2020年底，洛阳钼业以5.5亿美元从FCX（自由港集团）手中收购了位于刚果（金）KTM95%的权益，并于2023年正式投产。KFM连同不远处的TFM共有6条 生产线，具备年产65万吨以上铜的能力。 为保障生产，有着多条输电线路的KFM正想方设法布局更多电力资源，比如以柴油发电机为主的柴发系统，水电站等。 刚果（金）—赞比亚铜钴矿带，长逾700公里，宽约150公里，横跨赞比亚与刚果（金）两国，是全球最大的沉积型铜钴成矿带。截至2021年，该矿带已公开 探获的铜金属量达1.91亿吨，钴金属量1404万吨。 2021年至今，刚果（金）当地矿业企业产能从年产百万吨迅速增长至超过300万吨，但当地的电网基础远远满足不了庞大的能源需求。 铜钴矿的采选、冶炼均属于高耗电工艺，尤其是电积铜工艺，耗电量占到整个生产环节的60%—70%。根据国务院去年发布的《2024年-2025年节能降碳行动 方案》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of timely and professional information analysis in investment decision-making, particularly focusing on significant events, industry chain companies, and key policy interpretations [1]. Group 1: Company Insights - The company has established a joint venture with overseas giants in the diesel generator sector, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market presence [1]. - The company has previously participated in major data center projects for Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba, showcasing its experience and capability in handling large-scale projects [1]. - The diesel generators produced by the company are widely utilized in data centers and communication sectors, highlighting their relevance in critical infrastructure [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The article points out the growing demand for diesel generators in the data center market, driven by the expansion of digital infrastructure globally [1]. - The collaboration with international partners suggests a trend towards consolidation and cooperation in the energy and data center industries, which may lead to increased efficiency and innovation [1].

Group 1 - The control change of Shenli Co., Ltd. has been terminated due to the buyer's failure to pay the transaction price as scheduled [2][3] - On April 14, the controlling shareholder Chen Zhongwei signed a share transfer agreement to sell 47.9 million shares (22.00% of total shares) at a price of RMB 14.553 per share, totaling RMB 697 million [6] - The company reported a turnaround in performance, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.6 million to RMB 8.4 million for the first half of the year, compared to a loss in the same period last year [7] Group 2 - Recent resignations include Vice Chairman Chen Rui and Secretary of the Board Jiang Guofeng, both citing personal reasons for their departure [7] - Shenli Co., Ltd. specializes in the production of medium and large electric motors and generators, including diesel generators and wind power generators [9] - As of July 29, the stock price of Shenli Co., Ltd. was reported at RMB 14.78 per share, with a total market capitalization of RMB 3.2 billion [9]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index rose over 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.16% and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.51% [1] - Leading sectors included Huawei's Euler, short drama games, diesel generators, and Nvidia [1] - More than 4,000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets experienced gains [1]

Market Review - The A-share market rose by 1.22% during the week of June 30 to July 4, with strong performance in the glass and innovative drug sectors [2] - The average daily trading volume for the A-share market was 1.4384 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating high market activity [2] - The average number of rising stocks decreased to 2,610, down by 1,012 from the previous week, reflecting a weakening profit effect [2] High Prosperity Sectors Outlook for Q2 2025 - High-growth potential sectors identified for Q2 2025 include optical modules, diesel generators, innovative drugs, and deep-sea technology [2] - The optical module sector is expected to maintain high growth due to increased data transmission rate requirements [29] - The diesel generator market is anticipated to see a rise in both volume and price as AIDC construction accelerates [37] - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from BD transactions and supportive policies, which are expected to enhance growth opportunities [39] - Deep-sea technology is showing high prosperity trends supported by policy initiatives [43] Key Themes - The "anti-involution" policy aims to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, facilitating high-quality industry development [3][47] - Deep-sea technology is positioned as a critical pillar of the marine economy, driving economic acceleration [3][54] - The global regulatory framework for stablecoins is rapidly taking shape, providing new opportunities for the internationalization of the renminbi [3][50] Policy Dynamics - The central bank is enhancing financial support for the real economy, with a focus on emerging industries and technology standards [4] - Recent policies emphasize the importance of high-quality development in the marine economy and the establishment of a unified national market [4][59] Industry Trends - The artificial intelligence sector is advancing with initiatives like the global multi-center plan for AI pathology models [5] - The TMT sector is seeing the introduction of the first national 6G industry policy in Beijing [5] - The biopharmaceutical sector is experiencing growth with increased clinical trials and innovations in brain-machine interfaces [5] - The deep-sea economy is being reinforced by the establishment of leadership groups to enhance industry coordination [5] - The high-end manufacturing sector is benefiting from the lifting of EDA export restrictions to China [5]

Group 1 - The diesel generator sector is undergoing adjustments primarily due to the impact of chip bans, leading to lower-than-expected capex intensity and pace from domestic manufacturers [1] - Nvidia is developing a new chip, B30, specifically for the Chinese market, with plans to produce over 1 million units this year [1] - Despite slow progress in data center construction in Q2, overall demand remains strong, extending the industry's prosperity until at least the end of next year [2] Group 2 - Major manufacturers plan to initiate bidding for diesel generators for 2026 in advance, with both the bidding volume and prices expected to exceed previous expectations from April to May [3] - Weichai Power (02338) anticipates selling over 8,100 units of its M series large-bore engines in 2024, with overseas sales accounting for 62% and a 20% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by a 148% surge in data center product sales [4] - Chongqing Machinery and Electric (02722) projects a net profit of approximately 431 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a 42% increase, benefiting from the sustained high demand for high-end diesel generators due to ongoing AIDC and data center construction [4]

Core Viewpoint - The diesel generator concept is experiencing significant activity, with major companies like Weichai Heavy Machinery seeing a surge in stock prices, indicating strong market demand and positive outlook for the industry [1] Group 1: Market Activity - Weichai Heavy Machinery's stock reached the daily limit increase, reflecting investor confidence in the diesel generator sector [1] - Other companies such as KOTAI Power and Taihao Technology also saw stock increases, with KOTAI Power rising over 10% [1] Group 2: Industry Demand and Pricing - Institutional research reports indicate that the leading domestic diesel generator manufacturers have filled their production capacity for the year [1] - The prices of diesel generators are on an upward trend, with expectations for further orders in June-July and at the end of the year [1] - The overall demand for diesel generators is projected to significantly exceed previous expectations, suggesting a robust market environment [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The cloud infrastructure market is expected to experience rapid growth in 2025, driven by the implementation of AI applications and the launch of AI chips by major manufacturers, with total investment projected to reach 380 billion RMB [1][2][4] - The cloud computing sector underwent a significant adjustment in Q1, but pessimistic expectations have been largely digested, making it a suitable time for investment if actual demand does not decline significantly during the earnings season [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - Domestic cloud computing structures differ from overseas, with a higher expected proportion of inference-related applications. Progress in models and applications is promising, as seen with Alibaba's release of a native multimodal model [1][6] - The IDC industry is witnessing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with significant delivery schedules and scales anticipated in 2025. The Q1 reports from the three major telecom operators indicate rapid growth in IDC business, presenting a good opportunity for investment [1][9] - Data center construction relies heavily on capital expenditure expansion from IDC manufacturers, with 2025 being a year of strong performance certainty. Attention should be paid to inventory and contract liabilities changes [1][10] Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions are favorable for positioning in the cloud computing sector, especially with major companies like Alibaba and Tencent expected to report strong earnings [1][5] - The IDC industry is recovering from a phase of oversupply, and government regulations are expected to facilitate healthier development. The focus should be on revenue realization from major operators [9][12] - The liquid cooling technology is gaining traction, with a higher penetration rate expected in 2025. Monitoring manufacturer certification and industry penetration rates will be crucial [14] Additional Important Points - The diesel generator market is experiencing tight supply and demand, with significant price increases expected due to limited core engine resources [3][22] - The AIGC infrastructure-related companies are seeing substantial capital expenditure growth, with IDC-related businesses showing significant growth in Q1 [15] - The overall trend in the IaaS sector is a long-term price increase, influenced by capital expenditure and computing power construction [19] Recommendations - Focus on investment in IDC, cooling systems, and domestic computing power-related sectors, as these areas are expected to see significant capital expenditure expansion in 2025 [11][18] - Companies like Yingwei and others in the cooling sector are recommended for investment due to their strong performance and market positioning [10][12]

2024年，国内柴油机行业面临产能过剩、需求不足以及市场竞争白热化的多重挑战，行业整体形势严 峻。动力新科作为行业的重要参与者，同样受到一定冲击。 面对行业困境，动力新科坚持稳中求进工作总基调，以新发展理念和高质量发展为指导，积极做好国内 外市场开拓，扩大市场增量，努力加强技术研发，提升产品竞争力。 在市场开拓方面，动力新科积极布局多元市场，深度挖掘潜在需求。报告期内，公司加大车用、船机、 电站、出口柴油机等配套市场的开拓工作，业外配套市场表现亮眼，同比增长12.4%，其中，业外车用 配套市场更是以78%的同比增速实现逆势增长；船电配套市场累计同比增长20%，领先行业约7个百分 点，彰显了公司在细分领域的竞争优势；工程机械配套市场也成功止跌，同比增长6%，为公司业绩稳 定贡献了力量。 在技术研发方面，目前动力新科已开发并投产的12VK柴油机产品适用于商业地产、通讯、工业动力、 数据中心等领域，并已开始实现在数据中心的应用案例。2025年初，动力新科更是携手OEM伙伴斩获 中国移动（600941）2025至2026年柴油发电机年度集采产品，这批发电机组采用了12VK等多款电站产 品。随着数据中心等领域对动力设备 ...