在这场由AI点燃的、前所未有的淘金热中，那些掌握着核心散热与供电技术、能够为海量算力"降温"和"喂电"的供应链巨头，无疑将成为真正的赢家。 硬·AI 作者 | Kozmon 编辑 | 硬 AI 人工智能竞赛的本质，是一场关于物理基础设施的竞赛。 屏幕上每一次流畅的AI交互背后，都是数据中心内数以万计的服务器在高速运转，而支撑这一切的， 是一个正在以惊人速度膨胀的万亿级实体产业—— 数据中心。 据美国银行（BofA）测算，全球数据中心资本支出在2024年已突破4000亿美元，2025年将达到5060亿美元，其中IT设备支出4180亿，基础设施支出 880亿。在AI需求的驱动下，该市场预计在2024至2028年间，将以高达23%的惊人年复合增长率（CAGR）扩张，最终在2028年形成一个超过9000亿 美元的庞大市场。 那么，在这场前所未有的建设热潮中，真正的价值链分布在何处？谁将成为最大的受益者？ 数据中心市场的增长，已不再由传统企业自建自用驱动。自2017年以来，云服务商和托管公司的总容量首次超越企业自建数据中心后，几乎所有的新增 容量都来自于两类玩家：以亚马逊AWS、微软Azure为代表的"超大规模"（Hy ...

俄军国防部在当日战报中回应称，打击精准覆盖乌克兰 "军工复合体" 的能源命脉。战报披露，此次行动动用了 78 架 "天竺葵 - 2" 自杀式无人机与 18 枚巡 航导弹，重点打击为哈尔科夫坦克厂、基辅精密仪器厂供电的专用电网。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基在晚间视频讲话中证实，部分军工企业因断电陷入停产，他坦言："没有电力，无人机和炮弹都是废铁"，这与此前国际能源署报告中 "冲突导致乌军工产能下降 60%" 的结论形成呼应。 乌克兰国有天然气运营商发表声明，俄罗斯对乌克兰天然气网络发动了冲突爆发三年多以来的最大规模袭击。这次袭击给乌克兰带来极大困扰，根据乌克兰 能源部的说法，多个地区都因此出现了停电。俄军方面则宣称，已经通过导弹无人机联合打击乌克兰的"军工复合体"。 乌克兰能源部当日 14 时发布的灾情通报显示，袭击已造成全国 32% 的供电能力瘫痪，基辅、哈尔科夫、敖德萨等 12 个州进入紧急停电状态。在哈尔科夫 市，居民楼的电梯骤停在楼层之间，医院启动柴油发电机维持重症监护室运转，街头出现手持应急灯采购物资的人群。 黑市上，5 千瓦柴油发电机价格已飙升至 2200 美元，是冲突前的 5 倍，且需提前一周预订。更严峻 ...

最让她揪心的是 "取暖没着落"："去年冬天靠政府发的小暖炉过的，今年听说天然气站被炸了，暖炉成了摆设。" 瓦莲京娜的邻居更急，家里有个患哮喘的 孙女，停电后呼吸机没法用，只能连夜往医院跑。"俄军说炸的是军事目标，可烧的是我们的蜡烛，冻的是孩子的手，" 她把缝好的棉袄裹在米沙身上，"这 冬天要是一直黑着，孩子可咋熬？" 苏梅的能源抢修员安德烈，盯着被炸得扭曲的变压器直跺脚。"这是今天修的第三个变电站，昨晚从凌晨三点干到现在，早饭都没顾上吃，" 他抹了把脸上 的灰，工具箱里只剩最后一套备用零件，"俄军专挑关键设备炸，我们的库存只够撑半个月，欧盟的援助还在路上堵着呢。" 最让他窝火的是 "刚修好又被炸"："上周花三天修好了苏梅主变电站，结果第二天就被无人机盯上，炸得更碎。" 安德烈的同事上周抢修时，被二次爆炸的 碎片划伤了腿，现在还躺在医院。"我们像跟炸弹赛跑，可人家无人机年产三万架，我们零件却快没了，" 他蹲在地上叹气，"老百姓在黑暗里等，我们在寒 风里修，可这仗啥时候是头？" 哈尔科夫儿童医院的奥克萨娜，盯着新生儿暖箱的指示灯捏把汗。"全院靠三台柴油发电机供电，一天要烧 200 升油，现在库存只够撑四天，" 她 ...

Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The investment recovery is expected to be challenging, with cumulative fixed asset investment growth at 0.5% for the first eight months of the year, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [25][26] - The anticipated timing for policy implementation is around mid to late October, with expectations that the new policies will not be as urgent as last year, given the current economic performance is better than in 2022 [25][26] - The direction of the new policies may include early use of debt quotas, introduction of new policy financial tools, and potential monetary policy easing to lower costs for home purchases and business investments [25][26] Macro Depth Report - The correlation coefficient between stock and bond returns is projected to rise from -0.238 in August to between -0.216 and -0.229 from September to November 2025, indicating a continuing upward trend in this correlation [27][28] - For portfolio management, it is suggested to allocate only 3% to 5% in stock indices to control maximum drawdown and volatility, with an optimal stock allocation ratio estimated between 18% and 21% [29] Industry Insights - The diesel generator market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 12.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53%. The market is driven by the increasing demand for backup power in data centers and other commercial facilities [21] - The domestic diesel generator market is currently dominated by foreign and joint ventures, which account for 83% of the market share, indicating substantial room for domestic manufacturers to capture market share through local production and technological advancements [21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on domestic manufacturers such as Weichai Power and Yuchai International, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand and potential for domestic substitution [21] Automotive Industry - The year 2025 marks a pivotal point for automotive intelligence, with expectations for electric vehicle penetration rates to reach 50%-80% over the next three years. Major players in intelligent driving have successfully implemented complex scenarios in urban environments [19][20] - A comparative evaluation of ten intelligent driving suppliers indicates that advancements in driving capabilities are narrowing the gap between leading and emerging players, with significant improvements noted in the second tier of suppliers [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AIDC diesel generator market, indicating high demand and potential for domestic manufacturers to replace foreign counterparts [2]. Core Insights - Diesel generators are a key growth point for diesel engines, with applications in remote power supply, data centers, and industrial facilities [2][18]. - The demand for diesel generators is expected to accelerate due to increased capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the AI sector, with North American CSPs projected to spend approximately $340 billion in 2025, a 49% year-on-year increase [2][30]. - The domestic diesel generator market is currently dominated by foreign and joint-venture companies, which hold an 83% market share, leaving significant room for domestic manufacturers to grow [2][41]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies like Weichai Power, Yuchai International, and Weichai Heavy Machinery, which are well-positioned to benefit from the market dynamics [2]. Industry Trends - The AIDC infrastructure is experiencing high demand, with diesel generators playing a critical role in ensuring power reliability for data centers [5][18]. - The diesel engine market is closely tied to the commercial vehicle cycle, with generator sales showing consistent growth [11][12]. - The market for diesel generators is projected to reach 12.5 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 53% year-on-year increase, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2024 to 2028 [34]. Market Dynamics - The global diesel generator market is expected to grow from $3 billion in 2023 to $12 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 22% [17][34]. - The report highlights that diesel generators account for 2-3% of the capital expenditure for large data centers, emphasizing their importance in infrastructure investment [24][27]. - Domestic manufacturers are expected to gain market share as they improve production capacity and respond to demand more effectively than foreign competitors [2][41]. Supply Chain and Key Players - The supply chain includes three main segments: engines, OEMs, and component suppliers, all of which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for diesel generators [42]. - Key players in the engine segment include Cummins, MTU, and Weichai Power, with significant revenue contributions from diesel generator sales [43][44]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Weichai Heavy Machinery and KOTAI Power, which are focusing on the diesel generator OEM market [65].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the North American data center industry and its power supply solutions, particularly the transition from traditional power sources to alternative energy solutions like fuel cells and gas turbines [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Power Supply Preferences**: - Diesel generators remain the preferred backup power source for North American data centers due to a CAPEX of approximately $1 per watt, significantly lower than alternatives like gas turbines and fuel cells [1][3]. - The shift towards off-grid power systems is driven by resource scarcity and extended approval processes for grid connections [1][4]. 2. **Emerging Technologies**: - Small gas turbines are becoming a popular alternative for off-grid power, despite their costs rising to $2 per watt, due to their favorable LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) [1][5]. - Fuel cell technology, particularly from suppliers like Bloom Energy, is gaining traction with significant orders, although their CAPEX remains higher than diesel generators even with ITC subsidies [6][11]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - There has been a surge in gas turbine orders, with Q1 and Q2 of 2025 seeing around 20 GW each, leading to capacity saturation and extended delivery times of over three years for large turbines [8][9][10]. - Data centers are increasingly opting for smaller gas turbines with shorter delivery times, despite higher unit costs [10]. 4. **Regulatory and Economic Considerations**: - The U.S. energy regulatory body (FERC) has paused large nuclear projects due to ethical concerns, impacting the energy mix for data centers [5]. - Over 50% of new data center projects are developed by major cloud providers with strong ESG commitments, necessitating zero-carbon power sources [2]. 5. **Future Projections**: - The long-term goal is to reduce fuel cell CAPEX to below $1 per watt and LCOE to $50 per MWh by 2030, which would significantly enhance market potential [13][17]. - The anticipated annual off-grid power demand for data centers is projected to be around 5 GW, considering a 50% off-grid adoption rate among new projects [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Fuel Cell Viability**: - Fuel cells are seen as a viable option due to their operational efficiency, but their high initial costs remain a barrier without subsidies [11][12]. - The potential for hydrogen fuel cells exists, but current LCOE remains too high for widespread commercial adoption [12]. - **SOFC Technology**: - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) are gaining attention for their high efficiency and versatility, with Bloom Energy leading the market [14][18]. - Challenges for SOFC commercialization include improving system reliability and reducing costs, with a target to achieve $1 per watt by 2030 [17]. - **Competitive Landscape**: - Companies like 易时通 are making strides in the SOFC market, aiming for significant cost reductions and market expansion by 2026 [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of power supply solutions for North American data centers.

Core Viewpoint - The rapid increase in mining capacity in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to significant energy demands that the local power grid cannot meet, resulting in challenges for mining operations [1][4][5]. Group 1: Mining Capacity and Energy Demand - Since 2021, local mining companies in DRC have increased production capacity from 1 million tons to over 3 million tons, but the energy supply remains inadequate [1][4]. - The copper and cobalt mining processes are highly energy-intensive, with electricity consumption accounting for 60%-70% of the production process [4]. - The DRC's hydropower capacity increased from 2,700 MW to approximately 3,200 MW between 2021 and 2023, with annual generation rising from about 12 TWh to between 14 TWh and 16 TWh [4]. Group 2: Challenges in Power Supply - Mining companies face significant challenges due to limited access to hydropower, leading to reliance on expensive diesel generators and solar storage systems [6][8]. - The average annual diesel procurement cost for mining companies is around $2 million, with power supply interruptions occurring more than once a day [8][9]. - The cost of electricity for mineral development accounts for 20%-30% of total operating costs, with metal mining (copper, aluminum, lead) electricity costs comprising 15%-25% [9]. Group 3: Equipment and Operational Adjustments - KFM has implemented a strategy to procure diesel generators and optimize equipment selection to mitigate the impact of power outages [13][14]. - The company has purchased 13 diesel generators to ensure production continuity during power interruptions, despite the cost being 2-3 times higher than normal electricity [13]. - KFM has also modified equipment to improve operational efficiency, such as enhancing the cooling systems of diesel generators to achieve a 40% increase in performance [18]. Group 4: Future Power Solutions - To address long-term power supply issues, the company is constructing a 200 MW hydropower station, expected to begin operations in 2028 [21][22]. - The company is also exploring larger hydropower projects to meet future production demands of 800,000 to 1 million tons [22].

Core Insights - The local power supply in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is insufficient to meet the growing energy demands of the mining industry, leading to frequent power outages and limitations on production [2][4][5] - The KFM copper-cobalt mine, operated by Luoyang Molybdenum, has a production capacity of over 650,000 tons of copper annually and is exploring alternative power sources to ensure stable operations [2][8] - The DRC-Zambia copper-cobalt belt is the largest sedimentary copper-cobalt mineralization area globally, with significant reserves of copper and cobalt [2] Power Supply Challenges - Since 2021, local mining capacity has surged from 1 million tons to over 3 million tons, but the power grid cannot support this demand [3] - The copper and cobalt extraction processes are highly energy-intensive, with electricity consumption accounting for 60%-70% of the production process [3][7] - The DRC's electricity generation heavily relies on hydropower, with installed capacity increasing from 2,700 MW in 2021 to approximately 3,200 MW in 2023 [3] Mining Operations and Costs - Mining companies are facing challenges due to the inability to secure hydropower, leading to reliance on costly diesel generators and solar storage systems [5][10] - The cost of electricity for mineral development accounts for 20%-30% of total operating costs, with metal mining electricity costs ranging from 15%-25% [7] - Luoyang Molybdenum's KFM mine reported a revenue of approximately 31.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a projected annual revenue of 50.6 billion yuan for 2024 [8] Equipment and Maintenance - KFM has implemented a strategy to optimize equipment selection and develop production plans based on varying power loads to mitigate the impact of power outages [11][12] - The mine has procured 13 diesel generators to ensure power supply during outages, with diesel generation costs being 2-3 times higher than normal electricity costs [10] - Equipment management includes maintaining a safety stock of critical components and utilizing local production capabilities to reduce operational costs [16] Talent and Training - There is a significant shortage of skilled personnel for operating electrical equipment in the DRC, necessitating the import of both equipment and expertise [17][18] - Luoyang Molybdenum is investing in local talent development through training programs led by Chinese technical staff [18] Future Developments - To address long-term power supply issues, Luoyang Molybdenum is constructing a 200 MW hydropower station near the mining area, expected to begin operations in 2028 [18]

Group 1 - The diesel generator concept has gained significant traction, with companies like Taihao Technology, Power New Science, and Weichai Heavy Machinery hitting their daily limit up, and the diesel generator concept index has increased by over 64% this year [1] - The demand for high-end diesel generators has surged due to the continuous growth of AI data centers (AIDC) and traditional data centers, with power requirements for AIDC cabinets increasing from 4-8 kW to 20-100 kW, necessitating more robust backup power configurations [2][3] - Major tech companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are expanding their data centers, which is expected to drive the demand for diesel generators, with the market size projected to reach 9.1 billion yuan by 2025, a year-on-year growth of over 50% [2] Group 2 - North American cloud service providers are increasing investments in AI infrastructure, leading to a supply-demand imbalance for diesel generators globally, with prices reaching over 2.8 million yuan earlier this year [3] - Domestic manufacturers are experiencing a production backlog extending to November 2025, and the price of domestic diesel generators is around 3 million yuan, while export prices are approximately 4 million yuan, indicating a rising profit margin [3] - The domestic supply-demand gap is expected to persist due to the difficulty and low willingness of international leaders to expand production, benefiting domestic manufacturers in the diesel generator market [3] Group 3 - KOTAI Power focuses on the development, design, production, and sales of generator sets, with stable business cooperation in backup power for data centers [4] - Weichai Heavy Machinery specializes in developing and manufacturing power generation equipment, which is used as backup power in data centers [4] - Huafeng Co. produces intelligent generator sets primarily for data centers and communication bases [4] - Shenli Co. provides diesel generator products applicable in industries requiring emergency power, including data centers [4] - Taihao Technology specializes in emergency equipment for military applications, with intelligent emergency power solutions for data centers [4] - Sumida has a long-standing presence in the generator market, providing reliable backup power solutions for data centers [4]

Group 1 - The diesel generator concept saw a strong performance in the morning session on August 19, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases [1] - Taihao Technology and Power New Science reached the daily limit up, while KOTAI Power surged over 15% [1] - Weichai Heavy Machinery hit the daily limit up, achieving a historical high, with other companies like New Chai Co. and Maxin Yishen also following the upward trend [1]