shutdown drags on. Increasingly, investors are seeking safety. We told you about the big gains for gold.Many are buying Bitcoin. Where should bonds fit into the equation. Where should fixed income in general fit into the equation.Well, joining us now with his fixed income outlook for the fourth quarter is Jeff Rosenberg, portfolio manager for Black Rockck Systematic Multistrategy Fund. It's great to have you here on set. >> Great to be here.Thanks. >> Let's start right there. You just put out your Q4 outloo ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The price of gold has reached new highs, and there is a potential for a 70% increase under extreme conditions, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank policies [4][7]. - Global central banks have increased their gold reserves, surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996, with reserves valued at $4.5 trillion [6]. - The recent trend of significant ETF purchases of gold is expected to continue, especially with the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts [5][7]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement one more rate cut this year, with the federal funds rate projected to be in the range of 3.75% to 4% [9]. - The U.S. economy is viewed optimistically, with resilient consumer spending and a projected core CPI of around 3% by year-end [9]. - Historical data suggests that U.S. stocks have a 100% probability of rising in the 12 months following the initiation of rate cuts [9]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and China - Emerging markets, including China, are expected to benefit from the Fed's rate cuts, as the pressure from dollar-denominated debt and currency appreciation will ease [10]. - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to experience a structural bull market, particularly in technology, materials, and healthcare sectors, while traditional sectors like banking and real estate may underperform [13]. - Foreign capital is projected to start flowing back into Chinese markets by the end of 2024, driven by favorable conditions in emerging markets and the correlation between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks [14]. Group 4: Technology Sector and AI - The technology sector in the U.S. is expected to continue its growth, with significant investments in AI leading to increased productivity [11]. - The current valuation of Chinese tech stocks is considered high, but there is optimism about their potential if technological challenges are addressed [11][12]. - The development of AI in China is progressing rapidly, with notable advancements in various sectors, although challenges remain in certain areas like semiconductor manufacturing [11].

周一，由于美国政府持续关门带来的不确定性加剧以及降息预期升温，现货黄金开局维持强势，午间一 度向上触及3940美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨1.38%，年内累涨逾50%。不到10天前，现货黄金刚 刚突破3800美元关口。 10月6日晚间，现货黄金站上3950美元/盎司，日内涨超60美元，涨幅达1.64%，续创历史新高。 黄金正经历自20世纪70年代以来最凶猛的涨势，而"黄金版错失恐惧"（gold-plated FOMO）则在火上 浇油——投资者既担心错过收益，又忧虑通胀风险，纷纷将这一贵金属纳入投资组合。 在美国总统特朗普发起的贸易战引发避险资产抢购潮、美元大幅下跌后，金价今年屡屡刷新历史高位。 即便今年夏季由关税引发的金融市场波动有所缓解，金价涨势仍在加速：仅9月单月涨幅就接近12%， 创下2011年以来的最大单月涨幅。 资产管理公司表示，多年来各国央行储备管理者持续大举购金，如今更多类型的投资者也纷纷加入这波 涨价热潮，成为推动金价上涨的关键催化剂。 "这就是黄金版的错失恐惧，"百达资产管理公司（Pictet Asset Management）首席策略师卢卡·保利尼 （Luca Paolini）表示。他 ...

黄金正经历自20世纪70年代以来最凶猛的涨势，而"黄金版错失恐惧"（gold-plated FOMO）则在火上 浇油——投资者既担心错过收益，又忧虑通胀风险，纷纷将这一贵金属纳入投资组合。 周一，由于美国政府持续关门带来的不确定性加剧以及降息预期升温，现货黄金开局维持强势，午间一 度向上触及3940美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨1.38%，年内累涨逾50%。不到10天前，现货黄金刚 刚突破3800美元关口。 10月6日晚间，现货黄金站上3950美元/盎司，日内涨超60美元，涨幅达1.64%，续创历史新高。 在美国总统特朗普发起的贸易战引发避险资产抢购潮、美元大幅下跌后，金价今年屡屡刷新历史高位。 即便今年夏季由关税引发的金融市场波动有所缓解，金价涨势仍在加速：仅9月单月涨幅就接近12%， 创下2011年以来的最大单月涨幅。 资产管理公司表示，多年来各国央行储备管理者持续大举购金，如今更多类型的投资者也纷纷加入这波 涨价热潮，成为推动金价上涨的关键催化剂。 "这就是黄金版的错失恐惧，"百达资产管理公司（Pictet Asset Management）首席策略师卢卡·保利尼 （Luca Paolini）表示。他 ...

历史数据显示，当经济陷入低增长与高通胀并存的困境时，黄金表现往往优于其他资产。虽然美国经济 在夏季一度回暖，但 Automatic Data Processing(ADP)等民间机构调查及美国劳工统计局数据均显示就业 市场正在走弱。部分物价指标与通胀调查更警告，在关税政策前景未明之际，通胀可能再度升温，美联 储并已对此表示关注。尽管经济"软着陆"仍是最可能实现的基本情景，但若劳动市场持续疲软，经济陷 入衰退乃至滞胀的风险将显著升高，并进一步支持黄金配置需求。 尽管全球央行增持黄金的速度已较2022至2024年的高峰放缓，但购金步伐依然稳健。与此同时，中国零 售黄金需求持续超预期增长。这两大独特因素，正为本轮金价涨势提供坚实支撑。随着经济政策与外交 政策前景愈发不明朗(特别是若美国政府陷入长期停摆)，市场波动加剧与避险情绪升温将提振黄金需 求。 智通财经APP获悉，道富投资管理发表每月黄金监测报告指出，在当前"错失恐惧症"弥漫的环境下，现 货黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元大关，似乎已非"会否发生"而是"何时发生"的问题。道富资管认为，黄 金市场在2025年第四季或2026年初突破4000美元的机率高达75%。2 ...

Group 1 - The month of September saw significant deterioration in various aspects, including the potential government shutdown and bleak employment outlook, yet it marked a historic period for commodities, stocks, and forex markets due to a strong upward betting trend [1] - Gold prices surged by 12%, marking the eighth consecutive increase in nine months, while global stock markets continued their upward trajectory, adding approximately $35 trillion in market capitalization [2] - The proportion of pure long-only actively managed funds outperforming benchmarks has dropped to 22%, potentially leading to the worst performance on record [2] Group 2 - A commodity trading advisor index tracking price trends rose nearly 6% in September, and similar trend-following funds achieved their best monthly performance since 2022 [5] - The consensus has shifted positively, with market confidence bolstered by the expectation that President Trump may retract harsher trade measures, alongside the Federal Reserve's focus shifting from inflation to a weak labor market [5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.5% in September and continued to increase by 1% the following week, while the dollar maintained a broader downtrend and gold prices rose for the seventh consecutive week [5] Group 3 - Financial system liquidity has been a significant factor supporting risk assets, with the growth rate of money supply exceeding GDP growth, leading to increased inflows into stock and credit markets [6] - In September, total deposits into U.S. ETFs reached $141 billion, marking the third-highest level on record, indicating a broad liquidity seeking to be deployed across various asset classes [6] - The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF attracted approximately $2.8 billion in 2025, poised for its best annual inflow since 2018, while a high-beta momentum stock basket surged by 17% last month [9]

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在美国总统特朗普发起的贸易战引发避险资产抢购潮、美元大幅下跌后，金价今年已飙升近50%，屡屡刷新历史高位。 周一，由于美国政府持续关门带来的不确定性加剧以及降息预期升温，现货黄金开局维持强势，一度向上触及3920美元/盎司，再创历史新高。此时距离首 次突破3800美元关口仅不到10天。 黄金正经历自20世纪70年代以来最凶猛的涨势，而"黄金版错失恐惧"（gold-plated FOMO）则在火上浇油——投资者既担心错过收益，又忧虑通胀风险， 纷纷将这一贵金属纳入投资组合。 即便今年夏季由关税引发的金融市场波动有所缓解，金价涨势仍在加速：仅9月单月涨幅就接近12%，创下2011年以来的最大单月涨幅。 资产管理公司表示，多年来各国央行储备管理者持续大举购金，如今更多类型的投资者也纷纷加入这波涨价热潮，成为推动金价上涨的关键催化剂。 "这就是黄金版的错失恐惧，"百达资产管理公司（Pictet Asset Management）首席策略师卢卡·保利尼（Luca Paolini）表示。他提到，这种"错失恐惧"的情绪 也推动了大型科技股及信贷等其他市场的大幅上涨。 美国银行金属研究主管迈克尔·威德默（Michael Wi ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's reaction to the election of high-profile politician Kishi Sanae is expected to lead to increased concerns over bond supply and a decrease in expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, potentially resulting in a rise in Japanese stocks and long-term government bond yields while weakening the yen [2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Analysts predict that domestic demand-driven stocks and small-cap stocks may benefit from growth expectations, while bank stocks, which had previously risen due to interest rate hike expectations, may face challenges [2]. - Following Kishi Sanae's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election, there is speculation that the Japanese stock market may react positively, with long-term government bond yields expected to rise slightly [2][5]. - The Japanese 10-year government bond yield has recently hovered near its highest level since 2008, influenced by cautious attitudes towards fiscal spending and speculation about interest rate hikes [5][7]. Group 2: Economic Policies - Kishi Sanae's victory may lead to a loosening of fiscal discipline, with market expectations that she will not strongly support interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [6]. - There is a possibility that Kishi Sanae's growth-promoting strategies may not significantly expand public sector deficits, which could mitigate further yen selling [5]. - Kishi Sanae has previously expressed that raising interest rates is "foolish," but her recent comments suggest a more moderate stance, indicating that the Bank of Japan should maintain current interest rates [5][6]. Group 3: Sector Impacts - Stocks in sectors such as artificial intelligence, technology, and industrials may benefit from Kishi Sanae's strategic investments, with potential rebounds in the automotive industry if trade agreement terms with the U.S. are successfully renegotiated [8]. - The focus is shifting towards the composition of the next cabinet and how the Liberal Democratic Party will collaborate with opposition parties, as the party has lost its majority in both houses of parliament [9].

Group 1 - The upcoming China International Import Expo (CIIE) is expected to attract global exhibitors, showcasing opportunities for foreign businesses in the Chinese market [1] - Various international trade fairs in China, such as the Investment Trade Fair and Service Trade Fair, highlight China's commitment to open cooperation and high-quality development [2][6] - China's open policies and favorable business environment are benefiting foreign enterprises, as emphasized by executives from companies like Austria's Zotter Chocolate [2][4] Group 2 - The significance of the Investment Trade Fair is underscored by the challenges of rising trade barriers and the need for innovative cooperation to promote sustainable global development [3][6] - China's innovation-driven development strategy is fostering new industries and business models, particularly in AI and digital transformation, creating new opportunities for global partners [4][5] - Companies like ON Semiconductor are leveraging China's large market and rapid product iteration to enhance their global competitiveness [4] Group 3 - China's commitment to promoting inclusive economic globalization and opposing protectionism is crucial for maintaining an open international market [6][8] - The establishment of free trade zones and the hosting of international trade events are part of China's strategy to enhance global service trade cooperation [6][8] - Observers note that China's support for global cooperation and technology transfer is vital for avoiding disruptive "decoupling" in international markets [7][8]