中金公司 关税背景下如何看家电 20250408 摘要 Q&A 在关税冲击的背景下，家电公司对美收入和供应链敞口情况如何？ 对于家电行业，不同公司的对美收入和供应链敞口存在显著差异。以白电为例， 美的在 2024 年美国地区的收入占其整体外销收入约 20%，对应整体收入占比约 8%左右。这部分产能主要来自东南亚和国内。海尔美国市场的收入占比接近 60%，其中 60%由美国本土供应商提供，30%由墨西哥供应，其余不到 20%来自东 南亚和国内。格力在美国市场的收入占比很低，仅为 2%左右。海信家电在中个 位数左右，长虹美菱和 TCL 智家则为低个位数。 黑电方面，海信黑电的美国市 场收入占比约 10%-20%，主要由墨西哥供应。TCL 电子则有 20%的收入来自美国， 其中三分之一左右由墨西哥供应，其余大部分来自东南亚。 清洁电器领域，科 沃斯和石头科技在美国市场的收入占比分别为 15%-20%。科沃斯由于利润率较 高，对关税影响较敏感，而石头科技去年第四季度已承担了约 1 亿元人民币的 • 美国对中国家电加征关税将导致产品价格上涨，引发通胀，并可能影响需 求，但中国家电企业凭借供应链稳定性、订单灵活性和规模优 ...

Core Insights - GXO Logistics, Inc. has formed a strategic partnership with Hisense to manage logistics operations at a new 36,000-square-meter facility in Valencia, enhancing supply chain efficiency and customer satisfaction [1][2][4] Group 1: Partnership Details - The new logistics center will handle distribution, returns, repacking, and value-added services, with a capacity to distribute over 700,000 units annually [2] - The partnership aims to address supply chain challenges and operate an environmentally sustainable facility, reflecting shared values of innovation and excellence between GXO and Hisense [2][4] Group 2: Operational Improvements - In just two months, GXO has improved productivity and inventory accuracy by implementing specialized solutions for bulky and delicate products, reducing breakage rates [3] - The rapid implementation of operations at the new site demonstrates GXO's capability as a benchmark technology partner [3] Group 3: Sustainability Initiatives - GXO utilizes 100% renewable energy in Spain, has installed LED lighting, and recycles 82% of waste generated at its centers, showcasing its commitment to sustainability [5] - An initiative with Hisense focuses on using eco-friendly packaging to further reduce waste in logistics operations [5] Group 4: Company Overview - GXO is the largest logistics provider in Spain, operating 50 sites and employing over 8,500 workers, recognized as one of the "Best Places to Work" in Spain for five consecutive years [6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth of e-commerce, automation, and outsourcing, with a global presence across more than 1,000 facilities [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the trend of smart, green, and high-end home appliances driven by technological innovation and consumer demand in China [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The home appliance market in China is experiencing a recovery, with smart products becoming the preferred choice for consumers, projected to exceed 50% retail volume share in major categories by 2024 [1] - The "old-for-new" policy is boosting appliance consumption, encouraging consumers to adopt higher quality and lower energy consumption products [1][3] Group 2: Technological Integration - Companies are increasingly integrating AI, IoT, big data, and cloud computing into their products to meet consumer needs for comfort, convenience, and efficiency [1][2] - The introduction of AI technology in appliances is expected to enhance product offerings, with a focus on high-end smart products like AI refrigerators and adaptive air conditioners [2][3] Group 3: Economic Impact - The 2025 "old-for-new" initiative is anticipated to unleash over 100 billion in consumer potential, driving industrial upgrades and contributing to high-quality economic development [3] - The initiative is not only an economic policy but also a consumer benefit measure aimed at improving quality of life and consumer satisfaction [3]

Summary of Haier Smart Home (A/H) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haier Smart Home Co Ltd - **Ticker**: 6690 HK (H-shares), 600690 CH (A-shares) - **Market Cap**: Approximately $29.996 billion (H-shares) and $35.328 billion (A-shares) [4][23] Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Performance**: - Organic sales growth of 3.5% and earnings growth of 15.1% year-over-year (YoY) [2][21] - Reported sales and earnings grew by 4.3% and 12.9% YoY, respectively [2][21] - Domestic sales increased by 3% YoY, rebounding from a decline in earlier quarters [22] - Overseas sales achieved 4% organic growth, with emerging markets contributing significantly [22] - **2025 Guidance**: - Sales growth expected in the mid-high single digits (M/HSD) and earnings growth in the double digits (DD) [2][21] - Anticipated 7% sales growth in China, driven by premium brand Casarte [22] - Overseas sales forecasted to grow by 5% YoY with stable operating profit margins [22] Strategic Initiatives - **Digitalization and Efficiency**: - Deployment of AI to enhance sales management and supply chain efficiency, targeting a reduction in SG&A ratio by 40-50 basis points in 2025 [2][21] - **Tariff Mitigation Strategies**: - Plans to upgrade product mix, pass some tariff costs to suppliers, and improve production efficiency in the US [2][21] - Establishing a backup supply chain in Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [2][21] Market Position and Valuation - **Valuation Metrics**: - Haier-H trades at 10x 2025 P/E with a 4.9% dividend yield, more attractive compared to Haier-A's 12x/4.1% and Midea-A's 13.6x/4.5% [2][21] - **Price Target**: - New price target for Haier-H raised to HK$33 (from HK$31) and for Haier-A to Rmb31 (from Rmb30) [2][21][14] Earnings Estimates - **Adjusted EPS Estimates**: - FY25E adjusted EPS for Haier-H increased from Rmb2.14 to Rmb2.23, and for Haier-A from Rmb2.14 to Rmb2.23 [7][18] - **Long-term Growth Projections**: - Forecasted sales and earnings growth of 6% and 11.9% YoY in 2025, with CAGRs of 3.7% and 8.7% over 2025-2027 [25][31] Risks and Considerations - **Market Concerns**: - Haier has been perceived as disproportionately discounted due to fears surrounding US tariff hikes [24][30] - **Operational Challenges**: - Potential impacts from restructuring costs in Europe and fluctuating consumer sentiment in the US and EU markets [22][24] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: - Haier's balanced product portfolio and geographical diversification are seen as strengths. The company is expected to improve its operating margins and close the gap with competitors like Midea and Gree [24][30]

Group 1: AI Industry and Ecosystem - The AI industry chain covers multiple levels, including infrastructure, model, platform, application, and service layers, with key areas such as chips, computing, storage, networking, and software [1] - DeepSeek has achieved significant performance improvements in model training and inference through innovative training methods and architectures, resulting in lower training costs compared to industry averages [1] - OpenAI's GPT series, including GPT-4, has driven the development of the AI industry, particularly in utilizing pre-training principles like Scaling Law [1] - The rapid growth in AI computing power demand will benefit related industries such as semiconductors, storage, servers, optical modules, PCBs, and power supplies [1] Group 2: Home Appliance Sector Investment Opportunities - The home appliance sector, particularly the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines), is characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, making it an attractive investment area [2] - The second-hand housing market has shown a rapid recovery, with a 92.2% week-on-week increase in transaction area in key cities from February 8 to 14, indicating strong market resilience [2] - Air conditioner domestic sales growth reached 11.4%, reflecting positive effects from seasonal stocking and national subsidy policies [2] - The kitchen appliance sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, suggesting a focus on undervalued kitchen appliance stocks [2] Group 3: Economic Policies and Inflation - The effectiveness of "capacity reduction" and "consumption promotion" policies is debated, with a greater emphasis on expanding consumer demand to stimulate economic recovery [3] - Service prices have reached historical lows, and a significant increase in service prices could positively impact the GDP deflator index [3] - A dual approach of "capacity reduction" and "consumption promotion" is necessary, but prioritizing consumption promotion is deemed more effective [3] Group 4: Commercial Aerospace Development - The number of global commercial space launches has doubled in the past three years, surpassing non-commercial launches, with commercial launches accounting for 56% of the total [4] - The construction of commercial space launch facilities and satellite manufacturing capabilities in Hainan is accelerating, with expectations of significant increases in launch capacity by 2026 [4] - The market potential for China's commercial aerospace upstream satellite manufacturing is estimated to be between 368.8 billion to 463.7 billion yuan from 2024 to 2030 [4] Group 5: AI and Consumer Trends - Technology is driving consumption upgrades, with the consumer sector expected to become a new growth driver for the economy as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [5] - AI technology is anticipated to revolutionize the home appliance industry, particularly in products like robotic vacuum cleaners, which have substantial market potential [6] - The application of AI in education (2C AI) presents significant market opportunities, especially in scenarios with large user bases and essential needs [7] - Emerging e-commerce brands have rapidly developed by leveraging online platforms, contributing to the consumer stock market boom post-2016 [8]

Group 1 - Midea Group reported a total revenue of 409.1 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of 38.5 billion yuan, up 14.3% [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 35 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 26.7 billion yuan, which is nearly 30% higher than the previous year, and the dividend payout ratio is close to 70% of net profit [3] - Midea's revenue growth has accelerated, surpassing 400 billion yuan in just three years since reaching 300 billion yuan in 2021 [3] Group 2 - Hisense Home Appliances achieved a revenue of 92.746 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.35% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 3.348 billion yuan, up 17.99% [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12.3 yuan per 10 shares, which is a 21.42% increase compared to the previous year [4] - Both companies attribute their strong revenue and profit growth to successful international expansion efforts [5] Group 3 - Hisense's overseas revenue exceeded 35.6 billion yuan, growing by 28%, with significant increases in various regions including Europe and the Americas [5] - Midea's OBM (Own Brand Manufacturer) revenue accounted for 43% of its smart home overseas business, with exports to over 200 countries and regions, making it the top brand in global smart appliance sales for 2024 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese government is promoting consumption through policies such as the old-for-new appliance subsidy, which is expected to stimulate the home appliance industry and enhance consumer spending [1][7][19] - Suning.com is actively responding to the government's consumption promotion policies by implementing the old-for-new subsidy and enhancing user service capabilities, thereby injecting new vitality into the home appliance sector [1][7] - The "100-day plan" launched by Suning.com aims to activate market consumption through various promotional activities and partnerships with over 50 industry partners, focusing on a wide range of home appliances [12][19] Group 2 - The strategic focus for Suning.com in 2025 includes the "retail service provider strategy," which aims to transition from simply selling appliances to creating customized home scenarios [8] - Suning.com plans to open new stores, including Suning Max super experience stores and SuningPro flagship stores, to enhance its sales network and provide immersive shopping experiences [8][11] - The company is enhancing its service offerings, including integrated delivery and installation, and expanding its service categories to better meet customer needs [13] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Tianhe store is undergoing a significant upgrade to improve customer experience through diverse activities and digital operations [14] - Partnerships with major brands like Haier, Gree, and Midea are being strengthened to enhance the quality of life for consumers and promote the old-for-new policy [19] - Suning.com is committed to closely collaborating with partners to innovate consumption scenarios and optimize product supply, thereby better serving consumer needs for appliance upgrades [19]

Core Insights - Midea Group reported a total revenue of 409.1 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 38.5 billion yuan, up 14.3% [1] - The company announced a cash dividend plan of 35 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 26.7 billion yuan, which is nearly 30% higher than the previous year's dividend [1] - Midea Group's R&D investment exceeded 16 billion yuan in 2023, marking a growth of over 10% year-on-year, with cumulative R&D investment surpassing 100 billion yuan over the past decade [2] Financial Performance - Midea Group achieved a record high in operating cash flow of 60.5 billion yuan [1] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 5 to 10 billion yuan, with over 70% intended for cancellation to reduce registered capital [1] Technological Advancements - Midea Group deepened its technology leadership strategy, establishing 16 national-level innovation platforms and 82 provincial-level platforms [2] - The company received 1 national science and technology award, 30 provincial-level awards, and 67 international leading/advanced results certifications in 2023 [3] - Midea participated in the formulation or revision of 230 technical standards, including 14 international standards [3] Intellectual Property - In 2023, Midea added over 11,000 global authorized patents, with more than 5,000 being invention patents [4] - The company has a total of over 150,000 patent applications globally, maintaining over 90,000 authorized patents [4] Global Expansion - Despite challenges in the overseas appliance market, Midea Group experienced strong growth in its international business [5] - The company expanded its overseas manufacturing layout and achieved market leadership in various countries for its product categories, including refrigerators and washing machines [5][6] - Midea's smart home applications saw over 2.1 million new registered users overseas, with a total of over 4.4 million registered users [6] E-commerce Performance - Midea's overseas e-commerce sales revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year, achieving both scale and profit growth [6] - The brand secured a leading position in over 60 product categories on Amazon, with 29 categories ranking first [6] - According to Euromonitor, Midea became the top global brand in smart home appliance sales in 2024, with smart home business revenue reaching 269.5 billion yuan [6]

Financial Performance and Key Indicators - The company's income for continuous operations in 2024 was CNY 1,590 million, an increase of 11.5% year-over-year [7] - Adjusted business revenue, excluding procurement services, was CNY 1,360 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.1% [7] - The company's gross margin in 2024 was CNY 510 million, up 4.7% year-over-year, while the adjusted gross margin rate was 34%, an increase of 1.5% [7][10] - Net profit declined significantly in 2024, primarily due to the underperformance of Joy Young and ongoing investments in the S and A Pac region [8] Business Line Performance - Revenue from S and A Pac increased from USD 152 million in the previous year to USD 342 million in 2024, marking a significant growth [9][18] - Joy Young's revenue decreased by approximately 3% year-over-year, attributed to intense competition in domestic markets and weak performance in small household appliances [10][14] - The overall adjusted gross margin growth was driven by the introduction of high-end products and effective cost optimization in APAC [10][11] Market Performance - The Australian and New Zealand markets showed remarkable growth, with revenue contributions increasing significantly, accounting for 43% of S and A Pac's total revenue [19] - Japan's market share and sales revenue continued to grow steadily, particularly in the cordless vacuum cleaner segment [4][21] - South Korea's market share increased from 3.7% to 20.6%, reflecting strong growth and brand influence [19][25] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing R&D, and expanding marketing and sales channels [2][3] - Joy Young plans to concentrate on entry-level products and improve the product matrix to enhance scale and profit margins [14][72] - The company aims to leverage its successful models in Australia and New Zealand to expand into other regions, particularly Southeast Asia [46][48] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by fierce market competition and emphasized the need for continuous product innovation [75] - The company is optimistic about maintaining steady growth in the S and A Pac region and expanding its market presence in Southeast Asia [5][32] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to adapt to market conditions and consumer needs, aiming for sustainable growth [75] Other Important Information - The company has made significant investments in ESG initiatives, achieving a 100% complaint resolution rate for products and services [33] - Capital expenditure for continuous operations was approximately USD 27 million, primarily for marketing-related assets and office relocations [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the strategy for market access in APAC? - The company utilizes both direct sales and distributor models, establishing local operational teams for direct sales while relying on distributors for broader market access [36][39] Question: What factors contributed to growth in Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea? - Growth in these markets is attributed to cultural similarities with Western markets, effective distributor partnerships, and successful product launches [42][44] Question: What are the major driving forces for development in 2025? - Key drivers include product upgrades in mature markets, expansion into new markets, and the introduction of innovative products [48][49] Question: Can you elaborate on partnerships in Southeast Asia? - The company has established partnerships with strong local distributors in Thailand and Indonesia to enhance market penetration and brand visibility [53][58] Question: How does the company plan to promote hero products in Southeast Asia? - The company emphasizes tailored product offerings based on local consumer preferences and extensive R&D to ensure market fit [60][62]

以下文章来源于e公司 ，作者证券时报 梅双 e公司 . e公司，证券时报旗下专注上市公司新媒体产品，立志打造A股上市公司资讯第一平台。提供7x24小时 上市公司标准化快讯，针对可能影响上市公司股价的主题概念、行业事件及时采访二次解读，从投资者 需求出发，直播上市公司有价值的活动、会议。 市值超2600亿元的海尔智家（600690）3月27日晚间披露年报，公司2024年实现营业收入2859.81亿 元，同比增长4.29%；净利润187.41亿元，同比增长12.92%；基本每股收益2.02元。 海尔智家还公布2024年年度利润分配预案，公司拟每10股派发现金红利9.65元（含税）。海尔智家同日公 告，拟以10亿元—20亿元回购股份，用于员工持股计划，回购价格不超过40元/股。 2024年净利同比增长12.92% 海尔智家年报显示，公司2024年营收实现增长的原因包括，积极把握以旧换新政策机会、发挥高端产品与 品牌优势，四季度国内收入增长超过两位数，其中卡萨帝收入增长超30%。 在海外市场，海尔智家在各个区域持续拓展份额，尤其是东南亚、南亚、中东非等新兴市场通过聚焦高端 提升结构、推进零售模式转型，实现快速增长。公 ...