日期 2025 年 07 月 10 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 行业 生猪日报 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，9 日生猪主力 2509 合约低开后探底回升震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最 高 14270 元/吨，最低 14175 元/吨，收盘报 1426 ...

Group 1 - The pork sector experienced significant gains, with Zhenghong Technology hitting the daily limit and Bangji Technology rising over 6% [1] - Other companies in the sector, such as Tianbang Food, Aonong Biological, and Zhengbang Technology, also saw increases in their stock prices [1] - Specific stock performance includes Zhenghong Technology up by 9.97% to 8.27, Bangji Technology up by 6.10% to 24.00, and Tianbang Food up by 4.35% to 3.11 [2] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods announced a substantial increase in its expected net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a range of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [3][4] - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 1.90 to 2.00 yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's 0.15 yuan [4] - The increase in profit is attributed to a rise in the number of pigs sold and a decrease in breeding costs compared to the previous year [4] Group 3 - Muyuan Foods sold approximately 38.39 million pigs in the first half of 2025, an 18.54% increase from 32.39 million in the same period of 2024 [5] - The sales revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 70.87 billion yuan, up 26.5% from 56.02 billion yuan in the previous year [5] Group 4 - Huatai Securities noted that since late May, pork prices have been fluctuating downwards, with expectations of accelerated weight reduction and inventory release in the short term [6] - The report suggests that supply pressure may ease slightly by the end of Q3 and Q4, coinciding with the seasonal peak in pork consumption around September [6] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see better-than-expected pork prices and improved profitability for leading pig farming companies due to ongoing cost advantages [6]

Group 1: Agricultural Industry - The establishment of a 2,000-acre selenium-rich chili pepper industrial park in Gao'an has led to a significant increase in chili production, with a total planting area of 15,000 acres and a total output value exceeding 200 million yuan [3][2] - The introduction of green pest control technologies has reduced the use of chemical pesticides by 60% during the seedling stage, significantly improving product quality [3] - Jiangxi Shengnong Food Co., Ltd. has implemented automation and digital platforms across its entire production chain, enhancing efficiency and product quality [2][3] Group 2: Traditional Medicine and Innovation - The establishment of a traditional Chinese medicine industrial technology park by Renhe Group in Jiangxi has modernized ancient formulas into convenient granules, showcasing the integration of technology and traditional medicine [5] - The company has developed new products based on classic formulas, demonstrating the revitalization of traditional medicine through technological innovation [5] Group 3: Cultural Heritage and Innovation - Jinxi County has implemented a mechanism for the management of ancient buildings, allowing for financial support through "ancient village financial loans," revitalizing over 2,000 ancient structures [6] - The Tengwang Pavilion in Nanchang is undergoing urban renewal projects that enhance cultural exchange and improve visitor experiences, reflecting the city's international influence [7] - The Wengang Town's Chinese Brush Culture Museum promotes local brush-making workshops and enhances brand recognition through shared resources and a unified branding strategy [8]

Group 1: Internet Lending Industry - The internet lending industry is undergoing a significant "reshuffle" as compliance pressures increase, leading to a concentration of business among top lending platforms while smaller platforms exit the market [1] - Banks and financial institutions are tightening their risk appetite for internet lending, which has resulted in a reduction of high-interest practices previously employed by smaller platforms [1] - The new regulations have effectively closed loopholes that allowed for hidden price increases, putting pressure on the sustainability of some smaller lending platforms' business models [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3500 points for the first time this year, driven by significant gains in large-cap stocks such as Ningde Times and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical [2] - The rise in the index is attributed to ample liquidity in the market, although there are concerns about potential volatility and factors that may disrupt a sustained upward trend [2] Group 3: Consumer Electronics Industry - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a surge in new product releases, particularly AI glasses, with an increase in shipment volumes and a rise in domestic production rates [3] - The consumer electronics industry index has seen a 6.67% increase over a 13-day trading period, indicating strong market performance [3] - Industry experts anticipate accelerated upgrades and investment opportunities in the consumer electronics sector in the second half of the year [3] Group 4: Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy has been implemented to stabilize growth, with measures including the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government bonds to boost consumption and investment [4] - Experts predict that fiscal policies will continue to be aggressive in the second half of the year, with potential increases in special bond issuance and the introduction of new financial tools [4] Group 5: Private Equity Funds - Over 2000 private equity funds reached new net asset value highs in June, reflecting a strong market performance [5] - More than 90% of large private equity firms reported positive returns in the first half of the year, with quantitative funds achieving a 100% positive return rate [5] - The private equity fundraising market has shown signs of recovery, with significant capital inflows expected to support further upward trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] Group 6: Fund Management - Several fund companies have begun disclosing their second-quarter reports, indicating a significant increase in the scale of actively managed equity funds and strong growth in high-performing bond funds [6] Group 7: Financial Institutions - A total of 84 village banks have been approved for dissolution in 2025, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [8] - The majority of these dissolutions are due to mergers with local commercial banks, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the financial sector [8] Group 8: Market Trends - The "anti-involution" trend is gaining momentum across various industries, with sectors like solar energy, cement, and steel experiencing increased calls for reduced competition [9] - The stock market has responded positively, with significant gains in the solar sector and other related industries, suggesting a potential for improved profitability driven by policy support [9] Group 9: Electricity Market - The southern region's electricity market has initiated trial runs for continuous settlement, signaling the arrival of the "electricity e-commerce era" [10] - The establishment of a national unified electricity market is nearing completion, focusing on market-driven pricing and efficient resource allocation [10] Group 10: Fund Custody - The number of commercial banks with fund custody qualifications has increased to 37, with the latest addition being Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [11] Group 11: Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive year-on-year, influenced by rising industrial consumer goods prices and a narrowing decline in vegetable prices [12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to face downward pressure, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector [12] Group 12: Shareholder Engagement - Companies are increasingly adopting diverse methods to reward shareholders, moving beyond traditional dividends and buybacks to include more interactive and experiential rewards [13]

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储与会者对通胀前景看法不一 宏观策略（股指期货） [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-10 国办发文推出新一批稳就业支持政策 股市冲高回落，市场情绪有所降温，但依旧放量。当前阶段核 心线索仍在于海外关税政策演变的不确定性、上市公司利润增 长与估值水平的错配。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 报 物价仍然偏低运行，且上游物价的走弱迹象是较为明显的，但 由于市场对于经济形势已经有了充分了解，基本面数据很难压 制市场风险偏好。短期交易盘应以震荡思路对待债市。 农产品（豆粕） USDA 7 月供需报告前瞻 随着特朗普向多个国家致信表示将对其征收新关税，市场对贸 易战及美豆出口前景担忧情绪加剧。国内豆粕现货疲弱的态势 延续，昨日沿海油厂豆粕现货报价大体稳定，成交清淡。 有色金属（铜） 艾芬豪：二季度卡莫阿–卡库拉产铜 11.2 万吨 美国关税政策预期反复，对铜征收关税时间与幅度上超预期， 利多美铜但利空伦铜或沪铜，预计盘面短期将震荡下行。 美联储会议纪要：与会者对通胀前景看法不一 综 美联储最新的利率会议纪要显示内部分歧出现，对于通胀走势 判断还是有所区别，市场风险偏好回升。 ...

华泰证券研报表示，节后 猪价持续强于预期、叠加猪企成本持续改善或有望带动盈利超预期，"反内 卷"政策引导或有望利好2025年下半年、及中长期猪价表现，建议关注生猪养殖板块。其中低成本、优 质猪企盈利兑现能力或更强。 ...

Core Insights - The chicken farming industry in Cenxi, Guangxi, is set to expand significantly, with a target production capacity of 35 million three-yellow chickens this year, generating an annual output value exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The "company + farmer" model has been successfully implemented across 14 towns in Cenxi, providing farmers with free chicks, feed, and technical support, while ensuring guaranteed buyback prices [2] - The integration of modern technology in chicken farming has led to reduced labor requirements and improved efficiency, with labor needs decreasing from 10 to 3 workers for every 10,000 chickens, and feed-to-meat ratios improving by 10% [2] Industry Developments - The organic fertilizer market is being bolstered by the scientific treatment of chicken manure, which can be sold for 600 yuan per ton, contributing to sustainable farming practices [1] - The introduction of smart farming technologies, such as automated feeding and environmental control systems, is revolutionizing traditional farming methods, enhancing productivity and reducing costs [2] - The development of a chicken culture theme park is planned to promote agritourism, with a goal to achieve an annual output of 50 million chickens and a total industry value of 5 billion yuan by 2027 [3] Market Expansion - Cold chain logistics and pre-prepared food technology are critical for market expansion, with automated production lines enabling rapid processing of chickens into cold chain products [2] - New product innovations in the deep processing sector, including canned chicken soup and ready-to-eat chicken breast, are targeting the younger consumer market [2] - Cenxi's Ma Lu Town has been recognized as part of the second batch of agricultural industry strong town projects, highlighting its potential for growth in the agricultural sector [2]

Core Insights - In 2024, Chinese courts adjudicated 219,000 environmental resource cases, with compensation for ecological damage totaling 9.6 billion yuan, marking an 87.5% increase year-on-year [1] Group 1: Environmental Protection Enforcement - The Supreme Court revealed a case where four companies illegally mined resources under the guise of a wellness tourism project, resulting in significant geological damage and a loss of over 90 million yuan in mineral resources [2] - The Wuhan Intermediate Court imposed criminal liability on the companies for illegal mining and ordered them to pay over 12.9 million yuan for ecological service losses [2] - A detection company and its personnel were penalized for issuing 222 false environmental monitoring reports, leading to a fine of 200,000 yuan and prison sentences for responsible individuals [3] Group 2: Ecological Restoration and Preventive Measures - The Chongqing court executed a ruling to dismantle artificial fish nests in a critical spawning area to ensure ecological balance and protect fish populations [4] - The court mandated the construction of 1,961 square meters of artificial fish nests as a form of ecological restoration following illegal fishing activities [5] - A court in Huzhou issued a prohibition order to prevent activities threatening a newly discovered aquatic species, demonstrating proactive judicial measures for biodiversity protection [6] Group 3: Judicial Protection of Public Health - A pig farming cooperative was found responsible for polluting a drinking water source, affecting thousands of residents, leading to significant financial losses [7] - The Guang'an Intermediate Court ruled against the cooperative for environmental pollution, resulting in the dismantling of the pig farm and ongoing environmental restoration efforts [8] - The court provided judicial recommendations to local authorities to improve agricultural pollution management and prevent future incidents [9]

Core Insights - The article highlights the collaborative efforts of Guangdong Vocational College of Science and Technology in promoting rural revitalization through practical training and community engagement in Leizhu Town [1][11] Group 1: Educational Initiatives - The college's Animal Science Department conducted hands-on training sessions focusing on bamboo shoot quality improvement, which transformed a potentially dull technical class into an engaging discussion among local farmers [2] - Students from the veterinary program participated in a practical vaccination campaign at a modern chicken farm, significantly increasing their efficiency from 300 to 1000 vaccinations per day through innovative techniques [3] Group 2: Community Engagement - A survey was conducted to gather insights from local youth on challenges faced in entrepreneurship, revealing needs for land policy support, design innovation in traditional crafts, and technical guidance in poultry farming [5] - A cultural promotion team documented the stories of overseas Chinese and the heritage of bamboo weaving, aiming to preserve the unique cultural identity of Leizhu Town [7] Group 3: Collaborative Framework - The partnership between the college and Leizhu Town is characterized by a "red engine" of party collaboration, ensuring that technical expertise is directly accessible to local agricultural practices [9] - Future plans include integrating various academic departments to create a comprehensive support system for local industries, focusing on livestock, bamboo, cultural tourism, and prepared foods [9]

Group 1 - Muyuan Foods expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 924.6% to 973.39% [1][2] - The increase in profit is attributed to a rise in pig sales volume and a decrease in breeding costs compared to the previous year [2][3] Group 2 - TCL Technology anticipates a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 81% to 101% [1][4] - The company's revenue is projected to be between 82.6 billion and 90.6 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3% to 13% compared to the same period last year [1][4] - The semiconductor display business is expected to achieve a net profit exceeding 4.6 billion yuan, marking a growth of over 70% [3] Group 3 - TCL Zhonghuan is projected to incur a net loss of 4 billion to 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 3.064 billion yuan in the same period last year [4][5] - The loss is attributed to a decline in product prices and inventory impairment due to supply-demand imbalances in the industry [5] Group 4 - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals expects a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 52% [6] - The increase is partly due to the acquisition of a 10% stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals, which has been consolidated into the financial statements [6] Group 5 - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [7] - The growth is driven by improved production management, cost reduction, and increased sales of key products [7] Group 6 - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net profit of 600 million to 640 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 100.73% to 114.12% [13] - The growth is attributed to significant revenue increases and effective cost control measures [13] Group 7 - Foster anticipates a net profit decrease of 49.05% for the first half of 2025, projecting a profit of 473 million yuan [17] - The decline is due to oversupply in the photovoltaic industry and intensified market competition, leading to lower sales prices [17]