Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][36][41] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 37% in 2024, driven by the acquisition of Shanghai Jiale, which will contribute both one-time gains and ongoing performance post-consolidation [1][36] - The main business segments include bag and clothing OEM, with the OEM business accounting for 83% of total revenue in 2024 [1] - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 229.5% to 381 million yuan in 2024, aided by the consolidation of Jiale [1][36] - The overall gross margin is expected to decline slightly due to the lower margin of Jiale, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points to 22.9% [1][36] - The company anticipates continued high growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 1.234 billion yuan, a 35.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 20.1% [2][36] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.24 billion yuan, a 36.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 381 million yuan [1][38] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.234 billion yuan, reflecting a 35.6% growth, with net profit reaching 85 million yuan [2][38] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved slightly to 24.7%, despite the impact of Jiale's lower margin [2][38] Business Segments - Bag OEM revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 20.3% to 2.372 billion yuan, benefiting from client replenishment and increased orders from major clients like Nike and Decathlon [2][36] - Clothing OEM revenue is expected to surge by 146.43% to 1.162 billion yuan, primarily due to the consolidation of Jiale [2][36] - Brand business revenue grew by 5.1% to 658 million yuan, driven by collaboration with Xiaomi [2][36] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about expanding its OEM business in Indonesia, with production capacity expected to ramp up in the next two years [36] - Profitability is anticipated to improve as Jiale's margins align with industry peers, with significant potential for margin expansion [36] - The target price is set between 22.8 and 23.8 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 15-16x for 2025 [36][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an adjusted profit forecast for 2025-2027 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure on performance in 2024 due to overseas adjustments, but is anticipated to return to profitability in 2025 as it sheds burdens from its overseas business [5]. - The domestic core brand is leading the industry, with healthy growth in revenue, while overseas operations are expected to continue impacting overall performance negatively [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 3.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, but a net loss of 310 million yuan. Adjusted for one-time expenses, the net profit would be approximately 30 million yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 690 million yuan, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, but a net profit of 40 million yuan, reflecting a 40% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decline by 0.4 percentage points to 67.4%, with an overall net margin of -8.4% [1]. Market and Brand Analysis - The domestic market is showing robust growth, with a projected revenue increase of 10% in 2024 and 8.1% in Q1 2025 for the core brand [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its e-commerce channels, which have shown significant growth, with online sales increasing by 32.4% in 2024 [3]. - The main brands, including ELLASSAY and Laurel, are expected to continue their growth trajectory, with sales increases of 8% and 19% respectively in 2024 [4]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The company has effectively managed its cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 420 million yuan at the end of 2024 [5]. - Inventory levels have decreased, with a year-on-year reduction of 12.3% by the end of 2024, indicating efficient inventory management [5].

纺织服饰/服装家纺 森马服饰（002563.SZ） 2025Q1 终端零售稳步增长，短期费用扰动利润增速 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 5.62 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 7.48/4.34 | | 总市值(亿元) | 151.41 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 123.74 | | 总股本(亿股) | 26.94 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.02 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.5 | 信 息 更 新 报 告 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 森马服饰 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年分红比例提升，库存结构 改善奠定增长基础—公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.2 《2022 年业绩承压，期待轻装上阵 &开店下业绩修复—公司信息更新 报告》-2023.4.6 ——公司信息更新报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 4 | 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q1 2025, with a total revenue of 3.08 billion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38.1% to 210 million yuan, primarily due to increased sales and marketing expenses [5][6] - Despite short-term profit pressure, the company is expected to recover performance through store quality improvements and channel optimization, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][6] - The company’s gross margin slightly increased to 47.0%, while the net profit margin decreased to 7.0% due to higher sales expenses [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.41 billion yuan, 16.21 billion yuan, and 17.04 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 5.1% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.21 billion yuan in 2025, 1.30 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.41 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.52 yuan [8][10] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 12.6, 11.7, and 10.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][10] Operational Insights - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 8,268 stores, with a net decrease of 57 stores since the beginning of the year. Despite this, terminal retail maintained steady growth, indicating effective channel optimization strategies [6] - The inventory structure has improved, with a significant increase in the proportion of new products within one year of inventory age [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous growth from new channels and new business initiatives, which are anticipated to become new growth drivers [5] - The company's core business profitability has improved, with a gross margin of 46.07% in 2024, up by 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has successfully launched new businesses, including partnerships with JD.com and Adidas, which are expected to drive revenue growth [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 21,528 million RMB - 2024: 20,957 million RMB (YoY change: -2.65%) - 2025E: 23,353 million RMB (YoY change: 11.43%) - 2026E: 25,373 million RMB (YoY change: 8.65%) - 2027E: 26,909 million RMB (YoY change: 6.06%) [6] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2,952 million RMB - 2024: 2,159 million RMB (YoY change: -26.88%) - 2025E: 2,624 million RMB (YoY change: 21.57%) - 2026E: 2,890 million RMB (YoY change: 10.12%) - 2027E: 3,172 million RMB (YoY change: 9.75%) [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: 0.61 RMB - 2024: 0.45 RMB - 2025E: 0.55 RMB - 2026E: 0.60 RMB - 2027E: 0.66 RMB [6] Business Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on expanding its online business, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with online revenue reaching 44.19 billion RMB in 2024, up by 35.63% year-on-year [7] - The partnership with JD.com and the expansion into the outlet market are anticipated to be key growth engines for the company [7] - The company’s core men's wear business remains solid, with expectations for revenue and profit growth driven by increased online and direct sales channel contributions [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's basic operations are stabilizing, and the new retail format is continuously expanding [1] - The company achieved better-than-expected earnings in Q1 2025, with a projected high dividend payout for the year [1] - The main brand's revenue decline is narrowing, and the proportion of direct sales is increasing [2] - Other brands, including Sporz and JD Outlet, are contributing to new growth points [3] - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, driven by new retail formats and a strong dividend policy [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 20.96 billion yuan (down 2.7% year-on-year) and a net profit of 2.16 billion yuan (down 26.9% year-on-year) [1] - Q1 2025 revenue reached 6.19 billion yuan (up 0.2% year-on-year) with a net profit of 935 million yuan (up 5.5% year-on-year) [1] - The company plans a cash dividend of 1.969 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 91.22% [1] Main Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue in 2024 was 15.27 billion yuan (down 7.2% year-on-year), but gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 46.5% [2] - The number of direct stores increased by 216 to 1,468, while franchise stores decreased by 359 to 4,365 [2] - The company is expanding into overseas markets, with 101 stores opened by the end of 2024, generating 355 million yuan in overseas revenue (up 30.75% year-on-year) [2] Other Brands - Other brands generated revenue of 2.67 billion yuan in 2024 (up 32.4% year-on-year), with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 740 million yuan (up 100.2% year-on-year) [3] - The company increased its stake in Sporz to 51% and reported significant contributions from this brand [3] - The partnership with JD to open JD Outlet stores is also expected to drive growth [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Advice - Revenue is projected to grow to 22.3 billion yuan in 2025, 24.8 billion yuan in 2026, and 26.6 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.41 billion yuan, 2.66 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan [4] - The new retail formats are expected to open up growth opportunities, and the company's high dividend yield is seen as stable [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a revenue decline of 3% year-on-year in 2024, with a significant drop in net profit by 27% [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 91%, making its dividend attractive with an estimated yield of 5.2% based on the closing price on April 29, 2025 [1] - The main brand's revenue is projected to decrease by 7% in 2024, while new business lines such as JD Outlet and Sporz are expected to drive growth [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be CNY 20.96 billion, down 3% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 2.16 billion, down 27% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 6.19 billion, flat year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 0.94 billion, up 5% [2] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to remain stable at 44.5%, while the net margin is projected to decline to 10.4% [1] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue is expected to decline by 7% to CNY 15.27 billion in 2024, but it maintains a gross margin of 46.5% [3] - The group purchase and customization series is projected to see a revenue decline of 3% to CNY 2.22 billion [3] - Other brands are expected to grow by 32% to CNY 2.67 billion, driven by the integration of Sporz and JD Outlet [3] Channel Performance - Offline store revenue is expected to decline by 10% to CNY 15.74 billion in 2024, while online sales are projected to grow by 36% to CNY 4.42 billion [4] - Direct sales are expected to increase by 5% to CNY 4.78 billion, outperforming franchise sales, which are projected to decline by 6% [4] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - Inventory levels are expected to increase by 28.4% year-on-year to CNY 11.99 billion by the end of 2024, with inventory turnover days increasing [5] - Operating cash flow is projected to be CNY 2.32 billion in 2024, approximately 1.1 times the net profit for the same period [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential revenue growth in the low single digits for 2024, with net profit expected to grow rapidly due to a low base effect [5] - The report suggests that the company will continue to focus on high-quality store openings and improving profitability in new projects [5]

服装家纺板块盘初走高，探路者（300005）、安正时尚（603839）、莱绅通灵（603900）涨停，海澜之 家（600398）、萃华珠宝（002731）、新华锦（600735）涨幅居前。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company is focusing on precise development of new customers and projects, which has shown effectiveness in expanding its product categories and customer base [2][3] - The outdoor market is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a decrease in the company's pricing power for traditional products, which has resulted in a decline in gross margins [1][2] - The company has expanded its overseas production bases and is implementing intelligent production systems to enhance efficiency and quality control [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 240 million, a year-on-year increase of 9%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 30 million, a decrease of 27% [1] - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 800 million, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 140 million, down 37% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.0 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 40 million, with a payout ratio of 47% [1] Product and Market Breakdown - In 2024, tent revenue was 360 million, down 22% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29% [2] - Revenue from clothing increased by 42% year-on-year to 260 million, with a gross margin of 22% [2] - Domestic revenue surged by 150% to 90 million, while international revenue decreased by 9% to 740 million [2] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 140 million, 180 million, and 220 million respectively [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.1, 2.6, and 3.2 yuan for 2025-2027 [4]

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.0000 yuan for Q1 2025, a significant improvement from -0.0068 yuan in Q1 2024, marking a 100% increase [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was -0.02 billion yuan, an improvement of 50% compared to -0.04 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to -1.84% in Q1 2025 from -6.12% in Q1 2024, reflecting a 69.93% increase [1] - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 0.62 billion yuan, down 12.68% from 0.71 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders hold a total of 27,015.94 million shares, accounting for 43.35% of the circulating shares, with an increase of 1,045.68 million shares compared to the previous period [1] - The largest shareholder, Huzhou Hongyu Enterprise Management Partnership, holds 14,817.99 million shares, representing 23.77% of the total share capital, with no change in holdings [2] - New entrants among the top shareholders include Jin Lei and Su Xiaohong, holding 654.65 million shares (1.05%) and 542.09 million shares (0.87%) respectively [2] Dividend Policy - The company has announced that it will not distribute dividends or bonus shares this time [3]