来源：市场资讯 （来源：华龙证券研究） 朱金金 策略分析师 【核心观点】 上周各类风格指数均有所调整。其中周期、成长风格调整幅度靠前，周期板块调整主因板块近期较快上 涨后，局部有所高估，存在短期资金兑现引发；成长板块受到外围市场波动传导影响，一方面受到美联 储降息预期变化的影响；另一方面受到外围科技利空因素的扰动。成长板块近期连续调整后，估值趋于 合理，叠加景气度仍较高，持续调整的动能在减弱。 12月美联储降息预期上调但仍存分歧。尽管公布的美联储会议纪要显示，美联储官员对12月是否继续降 息存在较大分歧，但因失业率上升以及纽约联储主席表示"在不久的将来"降息可能是合理的，提高了对 12月降息的预期。截至11月22日，CME美联储观察数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为71%， 维持利率不变的概率为29%。 市场流动性总体充足。一是市场日成交金额总体仍处于高位。尽管受市场波动影响，成交金额有所下 降，但截至11月21日的近十个交易日日均成交金额仍接近两万亿。二是两融余额保持稳定。两融余额年 初以来不断回升，近期仍稳定在约2.5万亿元附近。三是长线资金增量明显。三季度末，保险资金运用 余额中股票的账面余额 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has turned from a decline to an increase year-on-year, with the core CPI rising for the sixth consecutive month, indicating a positive shift in domestic demand [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown its first month-on-month increase this year, signaling improvements in the upstream production sector [1][4] CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above seasonal levels, and turned from a 0.3% decline to a 0.2% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a continuous expansion for six months [1][2] - Key contributors to the CPI increase include rising prices in food, services, and industrial consumer goods [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in October, marking its first rise this year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1% [1][4] - Factors such as improved market supply-demand relationships and price recoveries in key industries contributed to the PPI's positive change [4] Sector-Specific Insights - Service prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with industrial consumer goods prices increasing by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.0% year-on-year [2][3] - The jewelry sector saw significant price increases, with gold and platinum jewelry prices rising by 50.3% and 46.1% year-on-year, respectively [2] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the CPI is likely to continue rising, while the PPI's year-on-year decline is expected to narrow further, with potential for positive growth in the first half of next year [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the textile and apparel sector [20][25]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with the SW textile and apparel index outperforming the SW All A index by 3.3 percentage points during the period from October 13 to October 17, 2025 [3]. - Domestic demand is gradually recovering, while external demand remains volatile, emphasizing the value of globalized production capacity [10][11]. - The report suggests that companies with mature overseas capabilities and the ability to allocate production globally will benefit from the ongoing shifts in the supply chain due to U.S. tariff policies [8][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The SW textile and apparel index decreased by 0.3%, while the SW apparel and home textiles index increased by 0.4%, outperforming the SW All A index by 4.0 percentage points [3]. - Retail sales in the clothing, shoes, and textiles category reached 940 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [10]. Export Data - In September, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to $24.42 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.0%. However, textile yarn, fabric, and products saw an increase of 6.4% [10][44]. - Vietnam's textile exports grew by 9.1% in the same period, indicating a shift in production orders and competitive advantages for overseas production [8][11]. Cotton and Wool Prices - As of October 17, the national cotton price B index was reported at 14,683 yuan per ton, down 0.6% from the previous week [46]. - The Australian wool index showed a significant year-on-year increase of 30.7%, indicating strong demand in the wool market [10]. Company Performance - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for its main brand and children's line, while e-commerce sales grew by approximately 20% [16]. - Xtep International's main brand saw a low single-digit growth in retail sales, with online sales outperforming offline [22]. - The report highlights the strong performance of companies like Bosideng, Anta, and Li Ning, suggesting they are well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming winter season [9][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands that are beginning to reverse their challenges, particularly in the sports and outdoor segments [14]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Bosideng, Anta, and 361 Degrees, with a suggestion to monitor Xtep and other emerging brands [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the resilience of the sportswear segment and the potential for growth in domestic demand [22][27]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 0.3%, outperforming the SW All A index by 3.3 percentage points from October 13 to October 17 [3]. - Recent industry data indicates a 2.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles, totaling 940 billion yuan from January to August [10]. - The report emphasizes the significance of overseas production capacity and the upcoming third-quarter performance reports from various companies, suggesting that firms like Yanjiang and Nuobang may benefit from industry opportunities [8][10]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile export value for September was $12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the overall textile and apparel export value for the first nine months was $221.69 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year [11][46]. - The report notes that the U.S. tariff policies are causing a divergence in production locations, favoring companies with established overseas capabilities [8][11]. Apparel Sector - The third-quarter operational data from Xtep and 361 Degrees shows resilience in the sportswear segment, with 361 Degrees reporting a 10% increase in offline sales for its main brand and children's line [9][24]. - The report recommends focusing on Bosideng due to favorable conditions for winter clothing sales, extended sales windows due to the delayed Spring Festival, and a high dividend yield [9][10]. Key Company Performance - 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year increase in offline sales and a 20% increase in e-commerce sales for Q3 2025, demonstrating strong operational resilience [17][24]. - Xtep's main brand saw low single-digit growth in Q3, with online sales outperforming offline sales, particularly in children's and outdoor products [24][25]. Market Trends - The report highlights a mild recovery in domestic demand, with retail sales for clothing and textiles showing positive growth trends [10][39]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies that can adapt to changing consumer preferences and optimize their supply chains expected to perform better [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report rates the textile and apparel industry as "Overweight" for 2025, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][11]. Core Insights - Domestic demand shows resilience, with retail sales of clothing and textiles reaching 940 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. In contrast, textile exports are performing better than apparel, with textile exports at 94.5 billion USD (up 1.6% year-on-year) while apparel exports decreased by 1.7% [2][3]. - The report highlights the competitive advantage of overseas production capacities, particularly in Vietnam, which has seen textile exports grow by 8.6% year-on-year [2][3]. - The outdoor sports segment is experiencing structural opportunities due to rising consumer demand, with brands like Anta and FILA expected to see significant revenue growth in Q3 2025 [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and price ratio in consumer preferences, particularly in men's and children's clothing, with brands like Hai Lan and Semir showing positive growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales of clothing and textiles reached 940 billion yuan from January to August, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [2][3]. - The growth trend is evident with July and August showing increases of 1.8% and 3.1% respectively [2][3]. Export Performance - Textile exports totaled 197.3 billion USD from January to August, with textiles at 94.5 billion USD (up 1.6%) and apparel at 102.8 billion USD (down 1.7%) [2][3]. - Vietnam's textile exports reached 29.7 billion USD (up 8.6%), indicating a shift in supply chain dynamics [2][3]. Sports and Outdoor Segment - The sports apparel segment is expected to see revenue growth, with Anta and FILA projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth and outdoor brands expected to grow by 40% [2][3]. Apparel Sector - Men's clothing brands like Hai Lan are expected to see a revenue increase of 5% in Q3 2025, while children's clothing brands are also showing signs of recovery [2][3]. Home Textiles - Brands like Luolai are focusing on e-commerce and retail operations, with expected revenue growth of 8% and net profit growth of 40% in Q3 2025 [2][3]. Personal Care and Household Cleaning - Companies in this sector are experiencing a quality upgrade and demand expansion, with expected revenue growth of 28% for companies like Wanjian [2][3]. Textile Manufacturing - The report notes that companies with global production capabilities will benefit from the ongoing tariff disputes between China and the US, with firms like Huayi Group expected to see revenue growth of 8% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in brands such as Anta, Li Ning, and Huayi Group, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth in the current market environment [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific segments such as non-woven fabrics and sportswear [2][9]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.7%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 1.5 percentage points [4][6]. - Recent industry data indicates a 2.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles, totaling 837.1 billion yuan from January to July [30]. - Exports of textiles and apparel decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, amounting to 197.27 billion USD from January to August, with a notable 5.0% decline in August alone [30][31]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - Focus on investment opportunities in the entire non-woven fabric supply chain, with a significant weekly increase of 26% for Yanjiang Co. The production of non-woven fabrics has been declining since its peak in 2020, but the pandemic has heightened hygiene awareness, maintaining a large market scale [9][12]. - Yanjiang Co. has a global production footprint in China, Egypt, the USA, and India, with major clients including Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark, contributing significantly to its revenue [9][12]. - The report recommends Nobon Co. for its growth potential in personal care and new tobacco products, highlighting its strong market position and technological capabilities [10][12]. Apparel Sector - Jiangnan Buyi reported a stable growth in its latest annual report, with a 4.6% increase in revenue to 5.55 billion yuan and a 6.0% rise in net profit to 900 million yuan for FY25 [12][19]. - The sportswear segment shows resilience, with brands like Anta and Li Ning demonstrating strong performance despite market challenges, with Anta's revenue increasing by 14% year-on-year [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery in 2025, suggesting that high-quality domestic brands are poised for a turnaround [10][12]. Market Trends - The report notes a K-shaped recovery in retail, with high-end and cost-effective brands performing better. Innovations in retail formats are accelerating, with plans for significant store expansions in the coming year [13][19]. - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from favorable trade conditions, particularly for manufacturers with strong supply chain capabilities [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential in the non-woven fabric sector and the performance of sportswear brands like Lululemon in China [2][3]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 1.4% from August 29 to September 5, 2025, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.8 percentage points [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the recovery in the non-woven fabric industry, with significant growth in revenue and profit for key players like Nobon and Jieya, indicating a positive trend in the sector [12][15]. - Lululemon's second-quarter performance in China showed a 25% increase in revenue, reinforcing the strong alpha in the sports market [15][16]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The non-woven fabric production peaked in 2020 but has seen a recovery post-pandemic, with a narrowing supply-demand gap. By the first half of 2025, revenue and profit for the non-woven fabric industry are expected to grow by 3.1% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [12][13]. - Nobon reported a 33% increase in revenue and a 48% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, exceeding market expectations [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Nobon for their growth potential in the non-woven fabric sector, particularly in personal care and new tobacco products [12][13]. Apparel Sector - Lululemon's global revenue grew by 7% to $2.5 billion in the second quarter of 2025, with international business revenue increasing by 22% and a notable 25% growth in mainland China [15][16]. - The report highlights the strong performance of high-end and cost-effective brands in the sportswear sector, with companies like Anta and Li Ning showing resilience despite market challenges [16][17]. - The report recommends investment in sportswear brands such as Anta, Li Ning, and 361 Degrees, as well as discount retailers like Hailan Home [16][17]. Market Trends - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China reached 837.1 billion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [29][32]. - The textile and apparel export value for the first seven months of 2025 was $170.74 billion, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, although clothing exports saw a decline of 0.3% [32][36]. - Cotton prices have shown a slight decline, with the domestic cotton price index at 15,297 yuan per ton as of September 5, 2025, down 0.3% [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Nobon Co., Ltd. in the non-woven cleaning products sector, highlighting its high growth potential [1]. Core Views - The textile and apparel sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 2.1% from July 28 to August 1, underperforming the SW All A index by 1.1 percentage points [4]. - The report emphasizes that domestic demand recovery is a crucial factor for investment in 2025, with quality domestic brands expected to reverse their current challenges [9][11]. Industry Data Summary - Retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles in China reached 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [25]. - In terms of exports, China exported textiles and apparel worth 143.98 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, with textile yarns and fabrics contributing 70.52 billion USD, up 1.8%, while apparel exports decreased by 0.2% to 73.46 billion USD [30]. - Cotton prices have seen a decline, with the national cotton price B index reported at 15,221 yuan per ton, down 1.5% as of August 1, 2025 [36]. Company-Specific Insights - Nobon Co., Ltd. is positioned well in the non-woven cleaning products market, benefiting from partnerships with major clients like Sam's Club and Yonghui, which are expected to drive performance beyond expectations [9]. - Adidas reported a 2.2% year-on-year revenue increase to 5.95 billion euros in Q2 2025, with a notable 12% growth in the Adidas brand revenue when excluding currency effects and the Yeezy series [11]. - The report suggests that the textile manufacturing sector may see a recovery in expectations due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations and the potential for tariff adjustments [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the resilience of the sports and outdoor segments [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown mixed performance, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 0.1% from April 25 to April 30, underperforming the SW All A index by 0.1 percentage points. The SW apparel and home textile index increased by 0.3%, outperforming the SW All A index by 0.3 percentage points, while the SW textile manufacturing index fell by 2.1%, underperforming the SW All A index by 2.1 percentage points [3][4]. - Key industry data indicates that the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 386.9 billion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. Textile and apparel exports reached 66.3 billion USD, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, with textile yarns and fabrics up by 4% and apparel down by 2% [3][34]. - Cotton prices have shown a downward trend, with the national cotton price index at 14,103 yuan/ton, down 0.7%, and international cotton prices also declining [3][36]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing performance divergence, with companies like Weixing showing high growth while others like Huali and Jiansheng report declines in net profit. High-quality stocks in the outdoor equipment supply chain, such as Zhejiang Natural, are seen as having significant rebound potential due to their limited exposure to the U.S. market and successful production ramp-up in Cambodia and Vietnam [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery as a key investment theme for 2025, with a focus on high-quality domestic brands and new growth opportunities in outdoor and new consumption sectors [15]. Apparel Sector - The sports apparel segment is leading the market, with brands like Anta and FILA reporting significant year-on-year revenue growth of 65%-70%. Other brands like 361 Degrees also show double-digit growth, while Li Ning and Xtep report moderate growth. The home textile sector, particularly Luolai, has exceeded profit expectations [13][15]. - The report notes that the overall inventory levels in the sports segment are healthy, and discounting remains stable, indicating robust operational quality [13]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on the textile manufacturing sector, suggesting that the cost burden will be shared among manufacturers, brand owners, and consumers. The long-term implications of the new tariff structure on global supply chains are expected to be significant, with a trend towards supply chain diversification and flexible production capacities [12][15]. - The report also discusses the performance of international apparel companies, noting that Skechers faced a 16% decline in sales in the Chinese market, attributed to increased competition and a slowdown in consumer spending [21][22].

Group 1 - In April, copper prices initially fell to 72,000 yuan/ton before recovering to around 77,000 yuan/ton due to rising market risk aversion and subsequent easing of trade tensions by the U.S. government [2] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with 15 to 18 key partners, with India likely to be the first to reach an agreement, while the trade negotiations with China are intensifying [3] - The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, with processing fees declining significantly, and major mining companies have lowered their production guidance for 2025 [4] Group 2 - The import of scrap copper from the U.S. has dropped sharply, with March imports falling to 22,000 tons, a 29% decrease, as China imposes high tariffs on U.S. goods [5] - Social copper inventory has decreased for eight consecutive weeks, with a total of 155,100 tons, reflecting a tightening supply and increasing domestic demand [6] - The domestic copper market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with increased production in the face of limited imports, and the operating rate of major copper rod enterprises has risen to 79.56% [6] Group 3 - Overall, the copper market is facing weak supply, but demand is marginally improving due to domestic policies and overseas exports, although the sustainability of this demand recovery is in question [8] - The high tariffs imposed by both the U.S. and China are expected to severely impact consumer demand for durable goods, with potential negative effects on future demand [8] - The progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations will be crucial for copper prices, which may continue to rise if negotiations go smoothly, but could face downward pressure if they stall [8]