II GER期货 要 3、0A船线下部分船期可保舱目免时效长，目的港可批复异地还箱 。 4、MSK欧线囤有部分单点舱位。 5、PA7月下,部分匹配品名的特价舱仍需提前占舱,整体月底舱位充裕。 6、欧洲港口劳动力短缺、安特卫普港大罢工、莱茵河水位下降、红海航道风险升高等影响欧洲港口堵塞情况仍未缓 解,时效拉长。 【EC】 行情综述:回落。 昨日,EC2510合约再次涨超16%,两天共计上涨超20%。 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | | 投资咨询号:Z0021177 | 2025/7/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | (三三 | 现值 | 1733 | 13 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate of the container shipping index on the European line is hovering at a high level. The 8 - month contract is in a high - level shock and game for delivery, the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the 12 - month contract's freight rate is usually high, but it is affected by whether the Suez Canal resumes navigation [3][4]. - The container shipping industry is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, ship capacity supply, and market demand. The current situation shows fluctuations in freight rates and changes in shipping capacity [2][4]. - The trading strategies include the main contract oscillating, going long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and shorting the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, the price of Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam in Week 31 is 1855/3110, and HPL's quotes for the second half of July and the first half of August are different [1]. - Geopolitical events such as the military actions of the Yemeni Houthi rebels may impact shipping routes and freight rates [2]. - The weekly average capacity of China - European base ports in July is 303,500 TEU, and in August it is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August, mostly from the OA alliance [2]. 2. Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The freight rate is in a high - level shock, and CMA still has a price - holding expectation in August. The estimated SCFIS from July 21st to July 28th is between 2300 - 2400 points [3]. - 10 - month contract: It is mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - 12 - month contract: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal resumes navigation. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index on the European line futures is 86,287.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 122,392.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary [5]. - On July 11th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, and on July 14th, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2421.94 points [6]. 4. Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU [6]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: The main contract oscillates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7].

Group 1 - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo (Chain Expo) opened on July 16, showcasing Swire Group's diverse businesses in the quality life section [1] - Swire Group's China Chairman, Cheung Yat Tak, emphasized the company's commitment to sustainable practices and collaboration with partners in China's industrial chain to promote high-quality development [1] - Swire Properties presented the future development blueprint of Beijing Taikoo Li through a model, highlighting standards for high-quality commercial communities [1] Group 2 - Swire Coca-Cola is embedding sustainability into its entire research, production, and operation chain to achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2050 [2] - Swire Sugar is leading a new trend in healthy consumption with innovative products like natural sweeteners and tremella soup [2] - Cathay Pacific aims to enhance global aviation through improved route planning, service quality, and passenger experience, reaching 100 global passenger destinations in the first half of this year [2] Group 3 - Swire Group's various businesses are focused on deepening supply chain collaboration through innovation and sustainable practices, aligning with the new development pattern of "dual circulation" [2] - The company is committed to contributing value to China's economic and social development while responding to diverse consumer demands for a better life [2]

Group 1: High-Speed Rail Technology - The CR450 train set, capable of reaching speeds of 600 km/h, showcases China's advanced railway technology and its leadership in the global high-speed rail sector [1][2] - The CR450 train, developed independently, achieves a maximum operational speed of 400 km/h, with improvements in running resistance reduced by 22%, traction efficiency increased by 4%, overall weight decreased by 10%, and energy consumption lowered by 20% [2] - The development of a 600 km/h magnetic levitation train aims to bridge the speed gap between aviation and traditional rail, facilitating rapid commuting within urban clusters and enhancing long-distance transportation networks [2] Group 2: Innovations in Transportation - The integration of digital information, artificial intelligence, and new energy materials is fostering significant advancements in transportation productivity [1] - The establishment of a high-level autonomous driving demonstration zone in Beijing has led to the deployment of over 1,000 autonomous vehicles, accumulating nearly 40 million kilometers in testing [4] - The transition of autonomous driving from testing to commercial operation is underway, driven by advancements in large model technology that enhance perception and decision-making capabilities [5] Group 3: Maritime Safety and Technology - The introduction of the "Smart Eye" system at the Qingdao Pilot Station enhances navigation safety by providing real-time data on surrounding vessels and environmental conditions [6] - The smart pilot service platform, operational since 2022, utilizes advanced radar systems and high-precision navigation to improve the safety and efficiency of maritime operations [6] - The maritime industry is focusing on green transformation, digital upgrades, and intelligent development, with an emphasis on eliminating outdated, high-energy-consuming equipment [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the hydrogen and fuel cell industry [1] Core Insights - Green hydrogen consumption is crucial, with green shipping opening up demand opportunities. As of June 2025, green hydrogen project approvals correspond to a production capacity of 7.6 million tons, but the project startup rate is only 24%, equating to about 1.8 million tons of green hydrogen capacity. The key to commercializing the industry lies in establishing a sustainable profit model and finding downstream applications that can accept green hydrogen prices [1][10] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has introduced a legally binding net-zero emissions framework for the shipping industry, which is expected to come into effect around 2027. This framework will apply to all international vessels over 5,000 gross tons, making hydrogen-based fuels like green methanol a suitable option for compliance [1][28] Summary by Sections Section 1: Green Hydrogen Consumption and Demand from Green Shipping - Green hydrogen project approvals are high, but actual project implementation remains low, with only 24% of projects started [10] - The IMO's new regulations are pushing the shipping industry towards decarbonization, with significant penalties for non-compliance [23][25] Section 2: Rapid Growth in Demand for Methanol Ships - Methanol is becoming the preferred fuel for shipping companies, with 125 methanol dual-fuel ships ordered in 2023, accounting for 23% of new orders [2][42] - The economic viability of methanol as a fuel is critical, with fuel costs representing 30%-50% of operational costs for ships [2][48] Section 3: High Growth in Green Methanol Demand and Its Impact on Green Hydrogen - The demand for green methanol is expected to exceed 40 million tons by 2030, significantly driving green hydrogen consumption [3][4] - The introduction of 300 methanol-fueled ships will lead to a demand for approximately 6.8 million tons of green methanol, which will in turn drive the consumption of 750,000 to 1.3 million tons of green hydrogen [4] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies that are early adopters of green methanol projects and collaborate with methanol shipowners are expected to benefit significantly. Recommended companies include Huadian Technology, Huaguang Huaneng, and Jidian Co [4]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production remains relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate maintaining at 0.7% year-on-year [2][5][8] - The chemical production chain shows a slight decline, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 2.6 percentage points to 6% and 0.9 percentage points to 1.3% respectively [2][15] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate is still below last year's level, up by 2.7 percentage points to -6.3% [2][15] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction industry shows a mixed performance, with the nationwide grinding operating rate down by 2.4 percentage points to 3.7% [2][27] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% to 3% [2][27] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a recovery, up by 0.6 percentage points to 7.4% [2][35] Group 3: Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transactions are at a low point, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 19.1% year-on-year, despite a 13.1% increase [2][44] - First-tier cities continue to see a decline in transactions, down by 18.6% to 39.9% [2][44] - Third-tier cities show significant improvement, with transaction volumes up by 72.4% to 17% [2][44] Group 4: Transportation and Shipping - National railway and highway freight volumes have decreased, with year-on-year declines of 1.3% to 1.2% and 0.9% to 0.8% respectively [2][54] - Port cargo throughput and container throughput have also shown a decline, down by 9.3% to 6.8% and 4.7% to 0.9% respectively [2][54] - The overall intensity of human mobility remains high, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2% to 12.6% [2][63] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with pork and vegetable prices rising by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively, while egg and fruit prices fell by 2.2% and 0.1% [3][85] - Industrial product prices have generally increased, with the South China industrial price index rising by 1.1% [3][93] - The energy and chemical price index increased by 1.3%, while the metal price index rose by 0.7% [3][93]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the shipping market, particularly focusing on the European shipping routes, driven by various factors including port congestion and changes in global trade dynamics [3][11][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 15, commodity futures showed mixed results, with the main EC2510 contract experiencing a significant increase of 15.38%, leading the commodity market [3][4]. - The SCFIS European route settlement price index reported a rise to 2421.94 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.26% [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current shipping capacity is relatively abundant; however, the primary issue affecting the European routes is the congestion at European ports [6][18]. - The average monthly passage of container ships through the Suez Canal remained stable at 150 vessels, indicating consistent shipping activity [9]. Group 3: Factors Contributing to Port Congestion - Unstable U.S. tariff policies have disrupted global trade flows, leading to a 7% increase in container volumes from Asia to Europe, placing unprecedented pressure on European ports [12][13]. - Low water levels in European inland rivers, exacerbated by prolonged drought conditions, have severely hindered port logistics, with some rivers reaching their lowest levels since 2018 [14][17]. Group 4: Shipping Rates and Trends - The article highlights a significant divergence in shipping rates between European and U.S. West Coast routes, influenced by geopolitical factors and market expectations [19]. - The China Containerized Freight Index showed a decline in the overall index from 1342.99 to 1313.70, a decrease of 2.2%, while the European route saw a slight increase of 1.9% [20]. Group 5: Shipping Capacity and New Orders - As of June, the global container ship capacity stood at 31.774 million TEU, with 6,894 vessels in operation [21]. - In the first half of 2025, 992,000 TEU of new container ships were delivered, with expectations of an additional 110,000 TEU in the second half [21]. Group 6: Information Asymmetry in Shipping - The article emphasizes the information disparity in the shipping market, where top-tier shipping companies control critical pricing data, creating a hierarchical structure that affects smaller players [23][24][25]. - Historical volatility in the European shipping market is noted, with significant price fluctuations observed in response to events such as the Red Sea crisis [26].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Ocean Shipping Group has launched its first international branch route under the RCEP framework, connecting Indonesia and Malaysia, enhancing its global network and providing new channels for Chinese enterprises to penetrate the Southeast Asian market [1][5]. Group 1: Route Launch and Operations - The inaugural voyage of the "Shan Port Qingdao" container ship marks the official start of the new route, which will operate regularly from August 1, providing efficient and cost-effective transportation solutions for Southeast Asia's core markets [2][3]. - The route aims to integrate ports, industries, and trade into a cohesive network, enhancing regional connectivity [2][3]. Group 2: Vessel Specifications and Customization - The "Shan Port Qingdao" vessel has a length of 118 meters, a width of 20.8 meters, and a depth of 11.2 meters, with a maximum capacity of 712 TEU, designed for high-frequency turnover and cold chain operations [4]. - The vessel meets most IMDG Code requirements for hazardous materials and is tailored for the Southeast Asian route, significantly reducing unit transportation costs [4]. Group 3: Strategic Development and Future Plans - The launch of this route is a key milestone in Shandong Ocean's "going out" strategy, which aims to integrate local resources and expand internationally [5]. - The company plans to continue expanding its international route resources and innovate service products to support the development of a world-class marine port cluster and efficient international logistics [6]. - Recently, Shandong Ocean has ordered two 95,500 dwt bulk carriers, reflecting its commitment to diversified development [6].

购买第一艘自有船，这家上市公司"杀入"集装箱船市场 纳斯达克上市公司Heidmar航运控股公司（Heidmar Maritime Holdings Corp.）于2025年7月7日宣布，成功收购了其第一艘自有集装箱船——A. Obelix。此次收购标志着这家上市公司首次进军集装箱航运市场，扩展其业务版图，进入支线集装箱船这一关键领域。 A. Obelix 是一艘1,698 TEU的无吊集装箱船，2008年建造于德国Wadan船厂。这艘船目前在东地中海-黑海地区运营，配备了330个冷藏插座，能 够为冷链运输提供高效服务。Heidmar方面进一步透露其以2,525万美元的价格收购了这艘船，并签订了为期2.5年的租约，预计将为公司带来稳定 的收入流。 此次收购是Heidmar实施资本高效共同投资战略的一部分。在这一模式下，Heidmar将与投资者合作，共同收购并管理资产，扩展其商业和技术管 理能力。通过这种合作模式，Heidmar不仅能够增强其在航运领域的市场份额，还能进一步提高收入来源多样性。 另据信德海事网了解，多个航运公司近期已开始加大对支线船型的投资，包括希腊航运巨头Latsco Shipping与中国黄埔 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures varied on Wednesday. The main contract EC2510 rose 1.4%, while the far - month contracts had a decline of -1% to -2%. The recent rebound of the spot index indicates that the price increase by leading shipping companies is likely to be implemented, reducing market concerns about peak - season freight rates. With the change of the main contract, the basis repair logic drove the sharp rise of near - month contracts. However, various economic data in the US suggest future economic activities may face greater challenges, and the container shipping index (European line) has weak demand expectations and large price fluctuations. But the rapid rebound of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC2510 main contract closed at 2153.00, up 62.3; EC2508 - EC2510 spread was 554.90, up 84.50; EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 394.00, up 104.00; EC contract basis was 268.94, down 27.00; EC main contract open interest was 18747, down 2808 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 2421.94, up 163.90; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1266.59, down 291.18; SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1733.29, down 30.20; CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1313.70, down 29.29; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1726.41, up 32.11; Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1866.00, down 83.00; Panama Freight Index (daily) was 1990.00, down 41.00; average charter price of Panama - type ships was 14883.00, up 422.00; average charter price of Cape - type ships was 16909.00, up 914.00 [1] 3.3 Economic News - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 4.8% [1] - The US and Indonesia reached an agreement. Indonesia will buy US energy worth $15 billion, US agricultural products worth $4.5 billion and 50 Boeing aircraft. The US will impose a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports, and US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty - free and non - tariff barrier treatment. The original plan was to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia starting from August 1 [1] - The EU has no intention to take any trade counter - measures before August 1. If trade negotiations with the US fail, the implementation of counter - measures may be postponed to August 6 [1] 3.4 Economic Indicators in the US - The US S&P Global Composite PMI index in June dropped slightly from 53 in May to 52.8. Price pressure increased significantly. In May, core PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6%. Real personal consumption expenditure decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year. Personal income decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the largest decline since 2021 [1] 3.5 Eurozone Economic Situation - The German ZEW economic sentiment index reached a three - year high. The CPI in May was stable at 2.3%, but industrial output decreased by 2.4% month - on - month, and the manufacturing industry was still under pressure [1]