Core Viewpoint - The current state of the ready-to-drink tea industry is improving, with a price war easing and a trend towards brand concentration, benefiting from external delivery subsidies that stimulate demand [1][2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Since H2 2024, the ready-to-drink tea industry has seen a slowdown in price wars, with market consolidation continuing after previous store closures [1] - In April 2025, JD.com entered the food delivery market with a substantial subsidy plan, prompting competitors like Meituan and Ele.me to follow suit, which has positively impacted the tea industry due to its stable delivery and high consumption frequency [1] - Although delivery subsidies have normalized since June, brands have benefited from increased exposure and effective consumer engagement, leading to significant long-tail effects [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Franchise Relations - The company has achieved nationwide supply chain coverage across 31 provinces, supported by 25 warehouses and over 300 temperature-controlled delivery vehicles, enabling same-day delivery [1] - The strategic national layout is characterized by initial challenges followed by easier expansion, with lower marginal costs for new store openings as the network is established [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company has 8,382 franchise stores and aims to enhance efficiency and cost optimization while maintaining a reasonable pace of new openings to stabilize gross profit and improve store profitability [1] Group 3: Product Strategy and International Expansion - The company's product matrix includes classic, seasonal, and regional products, allowing for continuous innovation and frequent new product launches, with a recent lychee series achieving over 2 million cups sold within five days [1] - In 2023, the company began expanding into international markets with a model of "international supply chain + local procurement," entering eight countries including Australia, South Korea, and Singapore, with South Korea already achieving franchise qualifications [2] - Overseas stores are reportedly profitable, with a faster return on investment compared to domestic operations, and the company plans to accelerate international store openings over the next three years [2] Group 4: Financial Outlook - In 2024, the company is expected to increase marketing expenditures to repair brand image, which, along with store compensation and listing costs, may pressure operational performance [2] - As the impact of public sentiment diminishes, the market maintains positive expectations regarding the company's supply chain advantages, with a forecast for steady recovery in store numbers and performance by 2025 [2] - Projected EPS for 2025-2027 are 0.68, 0.86, and 1.12 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 10, and 8 times, leading to an initial "buy" investment rating [2]

【星巴克推"非咖"战略应对竞争，业绩承压下市场前景待察】前不久，星巴克中国在战略发布会上提 出"非咖"概念，指咖啡以外的现制饮品，包括星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁。其战略定位高，被视为向"全 时段饮品服务商"转变的尝试，但在国内咖啡行业冲击有限。 中国茶饮与咖啡赛道竞争激烈，边界渐 消。茶百道等茶饮品牌布局咖啡，瑞幸等咖啡连锁拓展副业。星巴克"非咖"是对产品线的重新归类，瑞 幸此前已采取双线策略并推动"咖啡茶饮化"。 从生意角度看，覆盖全时段可提升单店坪效，渗透更多 场景优化客单。同时，瑞幸价格战压缩利润，促使品牌寻找高溢价新品类，茶饮产品有优势。 今年星 巴克全球高频调整，推出"回到星巴克"转型计划，挖角数字营销专家。中国市场人事更迭，王静瑛退 休，还出现"关店潮"与"降价"现象。 星巴克多款产品降价，是首次主动直接下调价格。今年上半年累 计净利润同比减少35%，最新季度净收入微增1%，净利润缩水一半，中国区同店交易量增长4%，客单 价下滑。 本土咖啡品牌瑞幸发展迅猛，新品推出快、联名营销强，"每周9.9元"活动拉低价格锚点。其 门店数多、单店日均销量高，挤压星巴克，倒逼其下沉。 星巴克推出"非咖"是业务下沉表现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks has initiated a price reduction on several non-coffee beverages, which has led to mixed sales performance across its stores, indicating a strategic move to penetrate lower-tier markets while facing challenges in boosting overall sales without reducing coffee prices [1][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Some Starbucks locations have reported a significant increase in sales following the price cuts, with certain non-coffee drinks like the Ice Shaken Red Plum Blackcurrant and Tea Latte experiencing high demand, leading to stock shortages [2][3]. - In contrast, other stores have not observed a notable change in sales, with coffee products remaining the primary revenue source for these locations [2][3]. Group 2: Pricing Strategy - The price reduction, which is the first in 25 years, affects dozens of non-coffee beverages with price cuts ranging from 2 to 6 yuan, and the actual discount can be more substantial when combined with promotional offers [2][5]. - For example, the price of a large Red Tea Latte has decreased from 35 yuan to 29 yuan, and with additional discounts, customers can pay as little as 20.3 yuan [2]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Analysts suggest that without a corresponding price reduction on coffee products, the overall impact on Starbucks' sales will be limited, as non-coffee beverages are not the company's strong suit [5]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with brands like Bawang Chaji offering similar "third space" experiences and appealing to consumers who may not prefer coffee, posing a challenge to Starbucks [5]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Starbucks China is at a critical stage of performance improvement, reporting approximately $740 million in revenue for Q2 of fiscal year 2025, a 5% year-over-year increase, with comparable store transactions up by 4% [6]. - In contrast, the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 showed a slight revenue increase of 1% but a 6% decline in same-store sales, highlighting the volatility in performance [6].

大消费板块的复苏 今年上半年，从传统大消费板块的强势反弹到新零售板块的崛起，从政策端的密集发力到外资的疯狂涌 入，消费板块逐渐成为资本市场的"宠儿"。这背后不仅是中国经济复苏的信号，更是一场关于策红利与 产业转型的宏大叙事。近期，河南、福建、广东等地接连发布提振消费专项行动实施方案，出台了稳定 就业、促进增收、发放消费券、鼓励带薪休假等举措，更大力度惠民生、促消费、做强国内大循环。政 策协同做大消费"蛋糕"的基本态势已经初步形成。 2024年，消费板块曾经历漫长的调整期。以白酒行业为例，龙头股的滚动市盈率一度跌至近5年的低 谷，市场对消费股的悲观情绪达到极致。然而，随着2025年经济数据的回暖，消费企业的盈利预期悄然 逆转。 今年3月印发的《提振消费专项行动方案》提出，运用财政补贴、贷款贴息等政策工具，突出重点、精 准施策，将促消费同惠民生、补短板结合起来，扩大消费需求，提升消费能力，更好发挥消费在畅通国 民经济循环、拉动经济增长中的积极作用。全国各地也纷纷出台刺激消费的政策，整个消费产业在政策 利好的驱动下，在资本市场走出了一波牛市。 上海和贵州近期发布的提振消费专项行动方案都提到，要加大政府投资对教育医疗 ...

Group 1: Company Developments - Guyue Longshan stated that its coffee yellow wine product, "Fei Huang Teng Da," is suitable for young consumers and can be consumed in moderation without health concerns [1] - Luckin Coffee's new innovation production center in Qingdao aims to become the largest coffee roasting production base in China, with an expected annual output of 55,000 tons of roasted coffee beans and an annual output value of 3 billion yuan [3] - Baifei Dairy announced plans to establish "Guangxi Baifei Tianrui Dairy Buffalo Breeding Co., Ltd." to develop dairy buffalo breeding, following its recent IPO acceptance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - Cafebreak announced its partnership with the "Su Super" Jiangsu City Football League to enhance brand promotion and fan engagement through various marketing activities [2] - Hu Shang A Yi revealed that the tea beverage market is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2028, with fruit tea and milk tea being the most popular categories among consumers [5]

港股这几天走势不算很强，赚钱效应相对来说是比较差的，但有个现象却是挺有意思的，那就是新消费 三巨头：蜜雪集团、老铺黄金和泡泡玛特 ，这三家公司的股价走势明显开始出现了一些分化，背后的 现象挺值得我们探讨的。 今年以来，"年轻人的茅台"站上了资本风口。市场高喊"茅台跌倒、新消费吃饱"的口号更是让人振聋发 聩。其中，包括谷子经济、珠宝首饰、茶饮等在内的新消费概念发起猛攻，年内掀起了两轮强势风潮。 新消费也是今年港股最大的热点。 蜜雪集团这几天调整的过程中，说蜜雪有泡沫的人相对就少了很多。因为蜜雪更接近普通人的生活，大 部分人可能没有买过Labubu，也没有去买过黄金葫芦，但很多人却喝过5元钱一杯的柠檬水，尤其是最 近电商外卖平台大战期间，3元钱的柠檬水都喝过不少。 我们不提泡沫，单看三家公司经营的商品，其实本质还是有一些区别的，蜜雪集团实际是消费降级，泡 泡玛特和老铺黄金都是消费升级。泡泡玛特的潮玩本身就是有生命周期的，老铺黄金产品没问题，但现 在大家都没钱消费了，哪怕是黄金，这也是没钱买了，蜜雪集团是几元钱一杯的饮料，基本是随便买， 本身就是消费降级。 从技术形态去看，泡泡玛特和老铺黄金有点像是双顶破位，蜜雪集 ...

供应链优势领航，关注经营底部反转 买入(首次) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 基本数据 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 茶百道 恒生指数 相关研究 —茶百道（2555.HK）公司动态研究报告 2025 年 06 月 20 日 ▌ 行业生态稳步修复，外卖补贴助力需求爆发 2024H2 以来，现制茶饮行业价格战趋缓，前期闭店出清后， 市场延续头部集中趋势，2025 年品牌端推新价格缓步上涨。 2025 年 4 月，京东入局外卖行业，启动百亿补贴计划，美 团、饿了么相继跟进，而出餐稳定、客单低、消费频次高的 茶饮行业在此轮竞争中充分受益，尽管 6 月以来外卖补贴趋 于正常化，但品牌端受益于高频曝光与有效消费者触达，后 续长尾效应明显。 ▌ 供应链布局壁垒深，与加盟商共生关系 公司已实现全国 31 个省供应链全覆盖，配套 25 ...

以下文章来源于金错刀 ，作者张一弛 金错刀 . 科技商业观察家。爆品战略提出者。 作者： 张一弛 来源：金错刀 进入中国 20 多年以来，星巴克终于首次大规模调价 。 前几天，星巴克中国宣布将发力非咖啡饮品市场，为了让中国用户看到自己的诚意，决定"咬牙 降价"： 自 6 月 10 日起，星巴克三大王牌品类——星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁，共计数十款产品集体降 价，平均价格降幅达到 5 元左右。 ---------------------------------- | 心动价23 快乐到手 | | | --- | --- | | 冰摇茶 ICED SHAKEN TEA BY TEAVANA® | 中元 大 mar 超大 son | | 冰摇红莓黑加仑茶 Blackcurrant Raspberry IST | 23 / 26 / 29 | | 冰摇柠檬茶 Lemon IST | 23 / 26 / 29 | | 冰摇桃桃鸟龙茶 Peach Oolong IST | 29 / 32 / 35 | | 茶拿铁 TEA LATTE BY TEAVANA® IZ | 中:265ml / 大 472ml /超大500ml | ...

Core Viewpoint - The ice cup market is experiencing significant growth, driven by low pricing strategies and innovative marketing tactics, leading to increased consumer engagement and sales opportunities. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Online platforms have reduced the price of ice cups to as low as 1 yuan or even 0.01 yuan, while major tea brands are launching "1 yuan ice water/ice cup" promotions to attract customers [1][4] - According to the "2025 China Urban Consumption Behavior White Paper," ice cup sales have seen a growth rate exceeding 300% for two consecutive years, with per capita annual consumption in first-tier cities reaching 48 cups [7] - The "one yuan strategy" has proven effective in driving foot traffic to stores, with approximately 35% of customers who purchase 1 yuan ice water also buying additional products, raising the average transaction value to over 20 yuan [9][12] Group 2: Product Innovation - Ice cups are evolving beyond simple ice blocks, with brands introducing flavored ice cups and unique shapes, enhancing the visual appeal and consumer experience [17][19] - The packaging of ice cups is also being upgraded to cater to younger consumers' preferences for personalization and social sharing, with themed designs gaining popularity [21][23] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The rise of DIY beverage culture, fueled by social media, has positioned ice cups as essential components for creating personalized drinks, with 69% of consumers using ice cups for homemade beverages [31] - The convenience of purchasing ice cups over making ice at home aligns with the "lazy economy," as consumers seek instant gratification during hot weather [34][35] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Traditional giants and emerging brands are entering the ice cup market, with established players like Mengniu and Yili launching their own ice cup products [25][28] - The market is witnessing a shift in consumer preferences, with ice cups becoming a staple in convenience stores and supermarkets, driving additional sales through bundled offerings [14][16]

编者按：消费者的信任与喜爱，是面向大众的消费企业最宝贵的市场资源。近年来，随着消费品牌与公司经营全流程环节的绑定程度不断加深，每一次消 费产品舆情的出现、演变和定调，既考验其品牌长期建设和应急策略的有效性，也反映了其整体企业文化与运作机制中的特征。 南方财经全媒体 ·21 世纪经济报道消费新闻部长期关注消费类企业的舆情动态，在跟进新闻动态、传递有效信息和反映消费者诉求的基础上，希望以每一 次典型舆情案例的出现和应对为切口，观察企业在面对突发性公共事件和舆论环境变化时的处理过程，从而以更全面的视角看待企业在品牌、市场运营管 理中的得失，从而为行业做出预警和警示。 为此，南财 ·21 消费新闻部综合企业在舆情预警与回应中涉及的公开操作维度，形成量化评分机制 —— 具体而言，包含舆情管理及响应、舆情回应、事件 处理、品牌影响四个一级指标和预防机制、回应直接度、信息透明度、处理长效性等 14 个二级指标，按照百分制根据重要性对不同指标赋值并打分，并以 《消费舆警指数》对企业的应对速度、态度与有效度进行分析评价，为企业品牌管理与消费者的品牌认知提供参考。 21世纪经济报道记者 易佳颖 上海报道 一、舆情事件：华莱士炸鸡 ...