国际投行高盛近日发布《迈向2035：中国房地产行业转型与机遇》研究报告指出，中国房地产市场正加 速从增量开发转向存量运营，政策驱动下的住房升级需求与建筑翻新潜力将成为未来十年行业核心增长 引擎。报告预测，至2035年，房地产及相关产业链的目标市场总额（TAM）将达到5.7万亿元人民币， 较2024年增长70%，形成以二手房交易、存量房翻新为核心的新增长极。 一、划重点：房地产行业四大结论（到2035年） 1、住房需求 达到2017年峰值水平的60%，必要性、改善性和更新性需求贡献相当。 一线和二线城市需求占比将从2024年的60%升至约70%。 2、土地供应和开发商整合 政府和开发商将根据需求调整，开发商行业整合进入下一阶段，领军企业将集中于T - 1/2级城市扩张。 预计到2035年前十大开发商全国市场份额按销售额计算将达约50%，新房市场规模将大幅缩小，全国房 地产销售和建设活动平均比2024年水平低40%。 3、二手房市场 由于新房供应减少，二手房市场在住房销售总量/总值中的占比将升至66%/64%，与发达市场水平相 当。 4、房屋翻新 翻新是价值链需求亮点和关键驱动力，预计到2035年房屋翻新率约为1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly declined in April, marking the lowest level in seven months, highlighting a weak start to the crucial spring selling season [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Sales Performance - Existing home sales fell by 0.5% month-over-month on an annualized basis, reaching 4 million units, which is the weakest April performance since 2009 [1] Economic Indicators - The decline in sales is attributed to ongoing affordability constraints, indicating that suppressed home-buying demand continues to grow but has not yet been fully released [1] Expert Commentary - Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, stated that any significant decrease in mortgage rates would help to unleash the pent-up demand for housing [1]

根据中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数，2025年4月，百城二手住宅均价环比下跌0.69%，同比下跌7.23%，同比跌幅小幅收窄0.06个百分点;十大城市二手住 宅均价环比下跌0.43%，同比下跌5.69%，同比跌幅收窄0.44个百分点。 各城市来看，4月十大城市二手房价格同环比均下跌，武汉、南京跌幅较大。具体来看，环比方面，南京和武汉环比跌幅分别为1.08%、0.97%;广州、重庆 (主城区)、北京、天津、上海和杭州环比跌幅均在0.3%(含)-0.5%之间;深圳和成都二手住宅价格环比跌幅均在0.3%以内，其中成都跌幅最小，为0.06%。同比 方面，武汉和南京同比跌幅分别为9.85%、9.61%;重庆(主城区)、杭州、天津、北京、上海和广州同比跌幅均在5%-7%之间;成都和深圳同比跌幅则均在3%以 内，其中深圳跌幅最小，为2.88%。 图: 2025年4月十大城市二手住宅挂牌均价及 ::: 2025年4月十大城市二手房价格地图 57 21 17408元/m' · 10.06% l 2.98% 重庆 11714元/m 10.49% 16.59% E 12 14883元/㎡® 10.97% 19.85% 22 M . ...

据中指研究院监测，4月，上海二手房市场维持较高活跃度，双休日单日网签量多次突破千套(如4月26 日达1419套)，全月二手住宅成交20385套，环比下降22.5%，同比增长29.6%，1-4月累计同比增长 42.2%。价格方面，4月，上海二手住宅价格环比下跌0.32%，同比下跌5.63%，同比跌幅连续7个月收 窄。 ...

4月，重点城市二手房成交量同比普遍增长。 具体来看，一线城市中，深圳二手住宅成交套数同比大增37%，上海同比增长30%，北京同比增长17%，广州同比增长近13%。 二线城市中，成都、杭州、南 宁二手住宅成交套数同比分别增长20%、16%、14%。 业内人士认为，4月重点城市二手房交易活跃度持续，驱动行业对后市信心有所回升，5月房地产市场有望延续积极向好。 重点城市二手房成交同比增长 4月，重点城市二手房成交量整体同比延续增长态势。 不过，中指研究院高级分析师孟新增指出，4月重点城市二手房市场仍保持较高活跃度，成交同比多保持增长，但目前二手房挂牌量仍在高位，部分城市取消 限售后二手房挂牌量有所增加，市场整体仍延续"以价换量"行情，根据中指研究院百城价格指数，4月百城二手住宅价格环比下跌0.69%，跌幅较上月扩大0.1 个百分点。 "红五月"可期？ 因4月楼市活跃度持续，业内认为5月二手住宅市场交易将升温。 广州市房地产中介协会指出，4月市场受清明假期以及雨水天气频繁等因素影响，但全市二手住宅网签量仍保持万宗以上水平，驱动行业对后市信心有所回 升，5月经理人指数因此环比增长9.79个百分点至52.17%（前值42 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing second-hand housing market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in activity, with an increase in listings and a shift in pricing dynamics as sellers adjust their expectations and buyers maintain a strong negotiating position [3][4][8]. Group 1: Market Activity - In April, the number of signed contracts for second-hand homes in Beijing was 15,569, representing a month-on-month decrease of 19.05% but a year-on-year increase of 16.59% [3]. - The overall market activity has declined compared to March, with a decrease in consultation, viewing, and transaction volumes, indicating a return to normalcy after the post-Spring Festival surge [3][4]. - The number of listings for second-hand homes in April increased by 3.7% compared to March, indicating ongoing pressure for market absorption [5]. Group 2: Pricing Dynamics - The average listing price for second-hand homes in Beijing in April was 87,100 yuan per square meter, down 0.7% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year [8]. - The bargaining space for buyers has narrowed by 0.27 percentage points compared to March, yet buyers still hold a significant advantage in negotiations [8]. - Sellers are increasingly adjusting their prices, with some urgent sellers willing to reduce prices by 5-8% to facilitate quicker sales [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing downward pressure on prices as the "small spring" effect diminishes, with predictions of a slight decrease in transaction volumes and prices if no new policies are introduced [10]. - The upcoming May market is anticipated to maintain a steady volume but may see slight price declines due to increased listings and ongoing buyer caution [10].

北京二手房市场分析 数据周期：2025-01-13 至 2025-04-27（共15周） 图源：58安居客研究院 上海二手房市场分析 数据周期：2025-01-13 至 2025-04-27（共15周） 01 图源：58安居客研究院 图源：58安居客研究院 市场分析 北京二手房市场近期呈现波动调整态势。最近6周（3.17-4.27）成交量先升后降，第12周（4.7-13）受假期影响骤降至2619套后逐步回升，最新周度（4.21- 27）成交3640套，环比微降0.8%，但成交面积反增0.2%。值得注意的是套均面积持续攀升，从90㎡增至93㎡/套，显示改善型需求占比提升。当前市场处 于节后修复期，成交量能尚未完全恢复，但大户型交易活跃度提升或预示市场结构正在调整。 最新完整周度数据（2025-04-21至2025-04-27）：成交套数：3640套（周环比：-0.8%）；成交面积：339937.49㎡（周环比：+0.2%）；套均面积：93.0㎡/ 套；近四周平均成交：3872套/周。 02 最新完整周度数据（2025-04-21至2025-04-27）：成交套数：6177套（周环比：-0.1%）；成交面积：50 ...

4月24日，美国全国地产经纪商协会表示，3月份二手房折合年率销量402万套，预估为413万套，2月份 销售数据从426万套修正至427万套。 ...

经济复苏的成色和分歧 1-2月二手房成交量继续维持高位， 9大样本城市二手房成交面积同比增长25.9%，显著高于-6.9% 的新房成交面积增速。但是二手房成交的复苏并不全面，其中深圳、杭州的二手房成交同比增长 65.6%、46.8%，苏州、青岛、佛山的二手房成交同比增长2.5%、-0.8%、-3.5%，内部分化较 大。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 年初经济平稳开局。 基于工业增加值和服务业生产指数同比增速，预计1-2月GDP不变价增速在5.2% 左右。而3月前三周的高频数据也显示月度GDP同比有望上行至5.4%左右， 对应1季度GDP同比增速 在5.3%左右 。其中，社零同比增长4%，略超市场预期，也处于2023年以来的区间上沿。 但是金融数据和通胀数据的表现一般。 受有效需求偏弱等因素拖累，1-2月CPI、PPI累计同比分别 为-0.1%、-2.2%；3月价格环比依旧偏弱，基于高频数据预测，3月PPI、CPI同比为-2%、0.6%， 对应一季度GDP平减指数为-0.7%，连续8个季度为负。 依靠政府债发行放量（1-2月政府债累计新增2.4万亿，同比多增1.5万亿），社融同比增速从去年末的 8%上行至2 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate sector Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in 100 cities saw a total listing of 2.3717 million units in February 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.2% [13] - The listing volume increased across all city tiers, with first-tier cities up by 29.6%, new first-tier cities by 26.0%, second-tier cities by 37.7%, and third and fourth-tier cities by 47.6% [13] - The housing search heat index for the second-hand market rose by 5.6% year-on-year in February 2025, with first-tier cities increasing by 10.0%, new first-tier cities by 7.9%, second-tier cities by 6.2%, and third and fourth-tier cities by 4.3% [20] - The average listing price per square meter in first-tier cities was 49,841 yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year, while new first-tier cities saw an average of 17,266 yuan, down 9.9% [12][20] Summary by Sections Listing Volume - In February 2025, the listing volume in first-tier cities was 746,000 units, new first-tier cities 594,000 units, second-tier cities 253,000 units, and third and fourth-tier cities 80,000 units [8][13] Search Heat Index - The search heat index for first-tier cities was 68.1, new first-tier cities 71.2, second-tier cities 71.5, and third and fourth-tier cities 75.2, showing increases across all categories [10][20] Listing Duration - The average listing duration was 112.3 days for first-tier cities, 94.9 days for new first-tier cities, 95.5 days for second-tier cities, and 104.2 days for third and fourth-tier cities, with year-on-year increases of 14.6%, 4.9%, 2.8%, and 6.0% respectively [11][29] Average Listing Price - The average listing price per square meter in first-tier cities was 49,841 yuan, new first-tier cities 17,266 yuan, second-tier cities 12,824 yuan, and third and fourth-tier cities 8,227 yuan, all showing year-on-year declines [12][20]