文丨东杭州城市研究院 诗怡 已经过去的十月份，杭州二手房"量价齐跌"，可没想到有些板块的二手房已经跌到意料之外了。 近日， 临安青山湖星汇城的一套法拍房，面积约184.45㎡，起拍价108万，折合单价仅约5855元/㎡，二拍上架，正式开拍之后居然惨遭流拍，让人惊讶。 要知道，在2021年前后的青山湖，那也算是杭州的网红板块了，在当时的火热行情下，曾经的新房还出现过15%左右的低中签率，高层的二手房更是卖出 过2.5万元/㎡左右的高价，那时候可真是热火朝天。 可当这股热潮褪去之后，曾经的风光不再，在天量库存之下，如今大幅跌价，也不免让人唏嘘。 在如今的楼市背景下，尤其是刚需板块，二手房大降价几乎已经是普遍现象。下沙当然也不例外。 图源：中介朋友圈截图 近日，大学城北挂出了一套房源，东郡国际锦湾一套两房69方的房源，总价仅约90万+，如果按照总价95万来计算，折合单价仅约1.38万元/㎡。 当年锦湾新房的一房一价，均价在1.1万元/㎡，这个价格，已经非常接近当年新房的开盘价格。 | 2304 室 | 2303 室 | | --- | --- | | 11176 元/m² | 11176 元/m² | | 76.8 ...

Market Overview - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou remains weak in October, with transaction volume, prices, and market sentiment all in a downward trend [1] - Approximately 5,900 second-hand homes were sold in the Hangzhou urban area in October, a decrease of 7.5% from September's 6,377 units and a 35.3% drop from 9,120 units in October of the previous year [1] Transaction Trends - The market has experienced a continuous decline in transaction volume for seven consecutive months since the end of the "small spring" in March [1] - In contrast to last year, when favorable policies stimulated market sentiment and led to a rebound in transaction volume, this year has seen a persistent downturn [1] Price Dynamics - The average transaction prices are also hitting new lows, particularly in older neighborhoods where prices have dropped over 40% from their peak in 2021, with a year-on-year decline of 5-10% [1] - Non-core areas like Linping, southern Xiaoshan, and Xiasha have seen prices fall by more than 30% compared to their peak [1] Buyer Behavior - The current market demand is heavily concentrated on low-priced properties, with homes priced below 2 million yuan becoming the mainstay of transactions [2] - This trend has been strengthening since the beginning of the year, indicating a structural shift in buyer preferences towards price-sensitive first-time homebuyers [2]

Core Insights - In October 2023, the second-hand housing transaction volume in Hangzhou decreased both in quantity and price, indicating a continued downward trend in the market [1] Group 1: Transaction Volume - The number of second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou was 5,934 units in October, representing a month-on-month decline of 6.9% and a year-on-year decline of 35% [1] - This marks the seventh consecutive month of declining transaction volume, contrasting sharply with the rebound seen in October of the previous year [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in Hangzhou was 26,773 yuan per square meter in October, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 9% [1]

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has experienced a significant decline, with October transactions dropping to approximately 5,900 units, a decrease of 7.5% from September and 35.3% year-on-year from October 2022 [1][3][11] - The average transaction price fell to 28,000 yuan per square meter, down about 10% compared to the same month last year [1][11] Market Trends - Unlike last year, the market is not stimulated by policy changes; after a brief rebound in March, the market has been on a downward trend [3][9] - There is a clear differentiation in market performance, with older neighborhoods experiencing price drops of over 30% compared to peak levels in 2021 [3][7] Transaction Dynamics - In October, seven out of the top twenty neighborhoods for transactions featured properties priced at "one million" yuan, indicating a shift towards lower-priced units [3][9] - High transaction volumes in certain areas, such as Jindi Zizai City, did not correlate with price stability, as prices continued to decline despite higher sales [5][9] Buyer and Seller Behavior - The market is characterized by cautious behavior from both buyers and sellers, with many sellers unwilling to lower prices significantly [7][11] - The majority of transactions are occurring in the lower price range, with over half of the sales coming from properties priced under 2 million yuan [7][11] Future Outlook - The market is entering a phase of differentiation and cooling, which has been evident since spring and became more pronounced in October [9][11] - The potential for market rebound or further decline in the coming months remains uncertain, with key indicators reflecting a cooling sentiment [11]

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has shown a decline in transaction volume for six consecutive months since March, with September's transactions at 6,377 units, down 3.9% from August but up 5.7% year-on-year [1] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in September was 26,832 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 4.8% from August and 4.5% from September of the previous year [1] - The market is increasingly dominated by low-priced, small-sized homes, with properties priced under 2 million yuan accounting for 52% of transactions, up 2.7% from August [1] Transaction Structure - The proportion of transactions for properties under 60 square meters increased by 0.8% compared to August, while the share for properties over 140 square meters rose by 1.5% [1] - The 90-120 square meter segment saw the largest decline in transaction share, dropping by 1.8% [1] - The top 20 selling communities in September were primarily affordable housing projects in suburban areas, with 15 communities having average transaction prices below 40,000 yuan per square meter [1] Notable Transactions - The highest number of transactions was recorded at Jiangxiang Yunlu in Xiaoshan, with 29 units sold at an average price of 15,655 yuan per square meter, down 4% from August [2] - Yuexiu Xinghui City and Zhongtian Junfu in Lin'an ranked second and third, with 23 and 16 units sold at average prices of 8,762 yuan and 9,955 yuan per square meter, respectively, both continuing to decline [2] - The high-end community, Greentown Peach Blossom Source in Yuhang, sold 11 low-density units at an average price of 130,000 yuan per square meter, marking a 16% increase [2] Sales Ranking - The sales ranking for September highlighted the following communities: 1. Jiangxiang Yunlu, Xiaoshan: 29 units, 15,655 yuan/sqm 2. Yuexiu Xinghui City, Lin'an: 23 units, 8,762 yuan/sqm 3. Zhongtian Junfu, Lin'an: 16 units, 9,955 yuan/sqm 4. Greentown Blue Garden, Linping: 14 units, 64,130 yuan/sqm 5. Yujiale International Garden, Yuhang: 13 units, 48,868 yuan/sqm 6. Nandu Garden, Xihu: 13 units, 44,125 yuan/sqm [3]

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has shown a year-on-year increase in transaction volume, with September 2023 recording 6,377 signed contracts, a rise of approximately 5.7% compared to 6,033 contracts in September 2022 [1] - The market is primarily driven by demand for affordable housing, particularly in suburban areas, with 13 out of the top 20 selling communities having average prices below 10,000 yuan per square meter [1][2] - The current market trend indicates a shift towards price reductions as sellers adjust their expectations, leading to a more favorable environment for buyers [3][4] Market Performance - In September, the second-hand housing market did not exhibit the expected seasonal uptick typically associated with the "Golden September" period, as many buyers remain hesitant, believing prices have not yet reached their lowest point [3] - The top 20 communities by transaction volume include several previously less prominent developments, indicating a market trend of "trading price for volume" where buyers prioritize cost-effectiveness [2][4] Price Dynamics - The average transaction prices in the top-selling communities vary significantly, with some properties seeing drastic price changes, such as a 1,200% increase in the average price of South City Garden [2] - The ongoing price adjustments and negotiations between buyers and sellers are reshaping the market, with many sellers now listing properties at prices lower than the market average to facilitate quicker sales [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - After five consecutive months of decline, the second-hand housing market in Hangzhou has shown signs of recovery in August, with a total of 6,633 transactions, marking a slight decrease from July but a stable performance compared to the previous year [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In August, the average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in the city was 28,178 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.2% from July and a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2]. - The total number of transactions in August was 6,633, which is higher than January and February but lower than the peak of 12,413 transactions in March [2]. - The proportion of transactions for properties priced below 2 million yuan has risen to 49.4%, indicating a strong demand from first-time buyers [2]. Group 2: Transaction Highlights - Among the top 20 transactions, 8 properties had an average price below 20,000 yuan per square meter, with the lowest being 9,082 yuan per square meter for the Yuexiu Xinghui City, which saw 23 transactions [3]. - Five newly delivered properties with less than one year of occupancy were among the top 20 transactions, indicating a resurgence in demand for quality new homes [3]. - The Jiangxiangyunlu project in Xiaoshan was particularly notable, with 31 transactions and a remarkable 520% increase from the previous month, priced at 16,294 yuan per square meter [4]. Group 3: Emerging Trends - The performance of relocation housing has been outstanding, with three such projects entering the top ten transactions in August, all being newly delivered properties [4]. - The original reconstruction community, Zhejiang Gong University New Village, recorded 14 transactions, a 75% increase from July, with an average price of 41,225 yuan per square meter [5]. - The Du Shiyuan project in Yuhang also performed well, with 13 transactions and a 160% increase from the previous month, priced at 12,959 yuan per square meter [5].

Core Insights - The recent increase in transaction volume of previously unpopular second-hand housing complexes in Hangzhou indicates a shift in the market dynamics, driven by lower prices and a high proportion of new residents purchasing homes [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Several second-hand housing complexes, such as Jishen New Village and Urban Harbor, have seen significant sales, characterized by low prices around 10,000 to 20,000 yuan per square meter [1]. - The proportion of new residents among buyers has exceeded 80%, many of whom have lived in Hangzhou for several years but previously could not afford to buy due to high prices [1][4]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - A notable transaction involved a property sold for 1.72 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous purchase price of 2.73 million yuan, reflecting a loss of over 1 million yuan for the seller [2]. - In July, properties priced under 3 million yuan accounted for 71% of transactions, while those under 2 million yuan made up 47% [4]. Group 3: Buyer Demographics - The majority of recent buyers are long-term renters in Hangzhou, indicating a shift towards first-time homeownership among this demographic [5]. - The price reductions have made it feasible for new residents to enter the market, with many properties now priced at levels comparable to 2016 [5].

Core Insights - In June, the second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou (including Fuyang and Lin'an) totaled 7,335 units, representing a month-on-month decline of 4.9% and a year-on-year decline of 17% [1] - The market activity has shown a significant drop compared to the "golden three silver four" period, indicating a cooling trend in the real estate market [1] - The proportion of price-reducing communities among active second-hand housing projects in Hangzhou has increased, with the highest ratio found in the Shangcheng District, where the number of price-reducing communities is twice that of price-increasing ones [1] Transaction Data Summary - In June, the average transaction prices of various active communities in Shangcheng District showed mixed results, with some properties experiencing price increases while others saw declines. For example, Xinda Binjiang Yipin increased by 4.26% to 112,311 yuan/m², while Poly Binjiang Shangpin decreased by 5.74% to 108,726 yuan/m² [2][3] - The overall trend indicates a market correction, with many properties in different districts experiencing price drops, such as the average price in Xihu District for Green City Xixi Yunlu dropping by 8.83% to 108,972 yuan/m² [13] - In Yuhang District, the average price for Green City Peach Blossom Source rose by 8.32% to 136,830 yuan/m², indicating some pockets of resilience in the market [21]

Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou experienced a decline in June, with transactions falling to 7,335 units, a decrease of 4.9% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [3][11] - Despite the decline in June, the first half of the year saw a total of 48,926 second-hand homes sold, marking the highest figure in nearly four years [3][6] - The market is currently characterized as a "buyer's market," with over 180,000 listings and around 30,000 properties seeing price reductions each month [11] Market Performance - The second-hand housing transactions in Hangzhou have seen a three-month consecutive decline since reaching a peak of 12,413 units in March [3][6] - The average transaction price for residential properties in the first half of the year was 29,182 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month [3][6] - The proportion of transactions for homes priced under 2 million yuan increased to 46.1% in June, indicating a shift towards more affordable housing options [6] Popular Areas and Properties - The top-selling properties in June included those in the Qingshan Lake area, with the highest transaction being 27 units at Chengxiu Xinghui City, priced at 10,848 yuan per square meter [5][6] - Newly delivered properties in areas like Shinfang and Qianjiang Century City have been popular among buyers, with several new developments leading in transaction volumes [7][9] Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market faces challenges in the second half of the year, with the need for strong macroeconomic support and timely policy assistance to maintain transaction volumes [11] - The average time to sell a property on the Beike platform is currently around 8 months, indicating a slower sales environment [11]