Core Viewpoint - China's fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with a series of measures aimed at enhancing people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, and boosting economic momentum, as highlighted in the recent Central Political Bureau meeting [1][7]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Meanwhile, expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [1][3]. - Local general public budget revenue was 669.77 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, with 27 out of 31 provinces reporting growth [1][2]. Investment and Consumption Promotion - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with a total of 7.88 trillion yuan issued in the first half, a year-on-year increase of 35.28%. Special bonds for consumption support have also been issued, with 690 billion yuan allocated for consumption upgrades [4][6]. - The "old-for-new" consumption initiative has led to significant sales in various sectors, with total sales reaching 1.6 trillion yuan, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [5][6]. Social Welfare and Local Government Support - The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments, with a total of 103.415 billion yuan allocated, reflecting an 8.4% increase year-on-year. This aims to enhance local financial capacity and support basic livelihood guarantees [7][8]. - New policies for early childhood education and direct cash subsidies for families with young children are set to benefit millions, with an estimated increase in national fiscal expenditure of around 200 billion yuan [6][7]. Future Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for continued macroeconomic policy support, with a focus on maintaining spending strength to promote consumption and investment, thereby stabilizing and developing the macro economy [7][8].

Group 1 - The core announcement is regarding the listing of the 2025 Shaanxi Province local government refinancing general bonds (Phase V) on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which will begin trading on August 11, 2025 [1] - The total issuance amount of this bond is 6.50512 billion yuan, with a fixed interest rate of 1.79% and a maturity period of 10 years [1]

Core Points - The U.S. Treasury auctioned four-year and eight-year government bonds with a winning yield of 4.290% for both maturities, reflecting an increase from the previous auction yields of 4.245% and 4.265% respectively [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the four-year bonds was 2.63, slightly down from the previous ratio of 2.69, while the eight-year bonds had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.52, also lower than the prior 2.63 [1]

Group 1 - The Guangdong Provincial Government plans to issue offshore RMB local government bonds in the Macao Special Administrative Region in 2025 [1] - The total scale of the bond issuance is set to not exceed 2.5 billion yuan [1] - The maturity period for the bonds will not exceed 10 years [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion in seven-year bonds with a winning yield of 4.092%, an increase from the previous rate of 4.022% reported on June 26 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.79, which is higher than the previous ratio of 2.53, indicating stronger demand for the bonds [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative issuance of local government bonds reached 5.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.18%, hitting a record high for the same period. The issuance of government special bonds for implicit debt replacement reached 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota of 2 trillion yuan, and the implicit debt replacement was basically completed within the year [2]. - The third - quarter planned issuance scale will not change much compared with the first and second quarters. The proactive fiscal policy will be implemented more quickly. In the short term, the downward space for the issuance interest rate of local government bonds is limited, and there is a possibility of periodic fluctuations. The strict supervision of local government debt will continue, and the debt - resolution thinking will shift to "both risk prevention and development promotion", with further differentiation in debt - resolution resources and local investment and financing space [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Government Bond - Related Policy Review - Implement a more proactive fiscal policy, arrange a larger - scale government bond, and continue to standardize and promote the work of land reserve special bonds. In 2025, the fiscal deficit rate is set at about 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan. The total new government debt scale in 2025 is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. Policies are also introduced to support land reserve work and promote the stabilization of the real estate market [4][5]. - Promote local implementation of the implicit debt replacement policy and improve government investment efficiency. From 2024 - 2026, 2 trillion yuan of local government debt quota is approved each year to replace the stock implicit debt. In the first half of 2025, 90% of the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement quota has been issued, effectively relieving the local debt - resolution pressure [6]. - Improve the local debt monitoring system and government debt risk indicator system, optimize the special bond management mechanism, and strengthen the in - depth supervision of local government special bonds. The "iron - clad rule" of no new implicit debt is emphasized, and the accountability for illegal debt - raising and false debt - resolution is strengthened. Measures are also taken to optimize the special bond management mechanism and prevent new implicit debt [8]. 3.2 Review of the Local Government Bond Market in the First Half of 2025 3.2.1 Issuance Overview - In the first half of 2025, 1,086 local government bonds were issued, with a total amount of 5.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.18%. Special bonds accounted for 78.52% of the newly issued local government bonds. Newly issued bonds totaled 2.61 trillion yuan, and refinancing bonds totaled 2.88 trillion yuan, with 1.80 trillion yuan for implicit debt replacement [11][12]. - The land reserve special bonds totaled 1,708.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with an accelerated issuance in the second quarter. The net financing amount was 4.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 135.69% [12]. - The issuance proportion of local government bonds with a term of 10 years or more increased significantly, with a weighted average issuance term of 15.88 years. Economically active regions such as Guangdong and Fujian were the main issuers of new bonds, while key provinces mainly issued refinancing bonds [16]. 3.2.2 Interest Rate and Spread Analysis - The average issuance interest rate of local government bonds decreased in the second quarter of 2025 after a slight increase in February. The average issuance interest rates in the first and second quarters were 1.94% and 1.85% respectively [22]. - The spreads in the first and second quarters of 2025 widened quarter - on - quarter, with significant differentiation among provinces. In the second quarter of 2025, Inner Mongolia had the highest average issuance spread for 10 - year local bonds, followed by Hunan and Guangxi [25]. 3.2.3 Investment Areas of Local Government Special Bonds - In the first half of 2025, infrastructure remained the main focus of special bond funds, and many cities restarted the issuance of land reserve special bonds. The top three investment areas were transportation infrastructure construction, urban - rural development, and railway tracks, accounting for 48.43% of the issuance amount. The issuance amount of land reserve special bonds accounted for 6.80% [30]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Local Government Bonds - The issuance rhythm in the third quarter is expected to be similar to that in the first and second quarters. The planned issuance of local government bonds in the third quarter is 2.73 trillion yuan, including 1.49 trillion yuan of new special bonds [33]. - The proactive fiscal policy will be implemented more quickly, and the acceleration of construction projects in the second half of the year may drive social investment. The deficit rate in 2025 has reached about 4%, and the new local special bonds are arranged at 4.40 trillion yuan [34]. - In the short term, the downward space for the issuance interest rate of local government bonds is limited, and there is a possibility of periodic fluctuations. The local debt - resolution thinking is shifting to "both risk prevention and development promotion", with further differentiation in debt - resolution resources and local investment and financing space [36][37].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auctioned a four-month Treasury bill with a winning yield of 4.225%, slightly down from 4.230% on July 16 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 3.55, indicating strong demand compared to the previous ratio of 3.02 [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auctioned 13-week (3-month) bills with a winning yield of 4.240%, slightly down from 4.245% on July 14 [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 13-week bills was 2.98, compared to 3.10 in the previous auction [1] - The auction of 26-week (6-month) bills had a winning yield of 4.115%, down from 4.125% in the last auction [1] Group 2 - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 26-week bills was 3.06, also lower than the previous ratio of 3.10 [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury auctioned four-week and eight-week Treasury bills with awarded yields of 4.230% and 4.270% respectively [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the four-week Treasury bills was 2.91, indicating strong demand [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the eight-week Treasury bills was 2.60, also reflecting solid interest from investors [1]

Debt Issuance Pressure - The estimated net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds for Q3 2025 is approximately $1.12 trillion, second only to Q2 2020, indicating significant supply pressure[2] - This figure exceeds the actual financing amount of $1.01 trillion in Q3 2023, suggesting a substantial increase in issuance pressure[11] - The projected fiscal deficit for Q3 2025 is $0.6 trillion, with a TGA net increase of $0.52 trillion contributing to the net issuance estimate[11] Historical Context - The supply panic in Q3 2023 was primarily due to actual financing of $1.01 trillion significantly exceeding the expected $0.85 trillion[27] - The low TGA balance at the start of Q3 2023 (actual $148 billion vs. expected $408.6 billion) contributed to the unexpected financing pressure[27] - Historical data suggests that the overall debt maturity pressure for Q3 2025 is not significantly elevated compared to previous periods[37] Interest Rate Dynamics - Rising Treasury yields in 2023 were influenced by stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve policies[3] - If similar yield increases occur in Q3 2025, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle[36] - The market anticipates that the significant increase in bond supply for Q3 2025 will not lead to a repeat of the panic seen in Q3 2023 due to better expectations[28] Debt Structure Adjustments - Adjusting the issuance structure by increasing short-term debt may alleviate some pressure on long-term bond supply, but not entirely[51] - The total estimated debt issuance for FY 2025 is $30.6 trillion, with Q3 2025 expected to account for $8.32 trillion of this total[45] - The proportion of short-term debt has been increasing, with the long-term debt issuance ratio dropping to around 16%[47]