Core Viewpoint - The financial technology sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, driven by strong performance in internet brokerage stocks and financial technology ETFs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 4050 points, marking a ten-year high, with the financial technology sector achieving an eight-day consecutive rise [1]. - Internet brokerage concepts saw substantial gains, with stocks like Tonghuashun rising over 8% and other companies like Zhinan Zhen and Wealth Trend increasing by more than 4% [1]. - The financial technology ETF (159851) also experienced a rise of over 2%, with trading volume exceeding 300 million yuan [1][2]. Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - A record high annual trading volume of 400 trillion yuan in A-shares for 2025 indicates a vibrant capital market, suggesting that internet brokerages will see performance releases in 2025 and the first half of 2026 [3]. - The integration of AI in financial IT is creating new growth opportunities, enhancing product value and customer loyalty through applications like smart investment advisory and big data risk control [3]. - The financial technology ETF (159851) and its associated funds are recommended for investment, as they cover a wide range of themes including internet brokerages, financial IT, cross-border payments, and AI applications [3].

Core Viewpoint - The financial technology sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high and the sector showing strong performance driven by multiple positive factors [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 4050 points, marking a ten-year high, with the financial technology sector achieving an eight-day consecutive rise [1][6]. - Internet brokerage concepts led the gains, with stocks like Tonghuashun rising over 8% and others like Zhina Compass and Wealth Trend increasing by more than 4% [1][6]. Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - The annual trading volume of A-shares has reached a historical high, exceeding 400 trillion yuan, which is expected to benefit internet brokerages with potential performance releases in 2025 and the first half of 2026 [3][8]. - AI is becoming a core driver in finance, with applications such as smart investment advisory, big data risk control, and automated operations enhancing product value and customer loyalty [3][8]. - Financial institutions are increasing their technology investments, and leading financial IT firms with product capabilities and technological barriers are expected to maintain their competitive edge, while the international expansion of financial technology presents new growth opportunities [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on the financial technology ETF (159851) and its associated funds (Class A 013477, Class C 013478), which cover a wide range of themes including internet brokerages, financial IT, cross-border payments, AI applications, and Huawei Harmony [3][8]. - The financial technology ETF (159851) has shown strong liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 800 million yuan over the past six months, leading among eight ETFs tracking the same index [3][8].

Group 1 - The financial technology sector is experiencing a rebound on the first trading day of the new year, with internet brokerages and financial IT companies showing active performance [1][5] - Notable stocks include Tax Friend Co., which hit the daily limit, and several others like Junyi Digital, Zhongke Jiangnan, and Dazhihui, which rose over 4%, while stocks like Guiding Compass, Tonghuashun, Wealth Trend, and Oriental Fortune increased by more than 2% [1][5] - The financial technology ETF (159851) has achieved seven consecutive days of gains, with a net subscription of 143 million shares [1][5] Group 2 - The financial technology sector is poised for multiple positive factors, highlighting its investment value, with A-share trading volume expected to reach a historical high by 2025, providing performance release space for internet brokerages and financial IT institutions [3][7] - The acceleration of AI integration into the financial sector is enhancing product value and industry barriers, creating new growth opportunities for AI-enabled financial IT [3][7] - The current valuation of the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index is at a near six-month low, indicating sufficient valuation digestion, and the sector is seen as timely for low-position investment due to high market activity expectations and multiple catalysts like AI finance and digital RMB [3][7] - The financial technology ETF (159851) and its linked funds (Class A 013477, Class C 013478) are recommended for investment, covering key themes such as internet brokerages, financial IT, cross-border payments, AI applications, and Huawei Harmony [3][7] - The financial technology ETF (159851) has an average daily trading volume of 800 million yuan over the past six months, leading in liquidity among eight ETFs tracking the same index [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The market in December 2025 shows a significant characteristic of "sector concentration and stock differentiation," with high elasticity opportunities concentrated in policy-sensitive sectors and clearly defined industrial trends [1][7]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The strongest structural directions are from non-ferrous metals, military industry, and price increases, driven by supply-demand gaps and policy-driven market rallies [1][7]. - The National Space Administration's release of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Commercial Aerospace" and the establishment of the Human Robot Standardization Committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have directly boosted the aerospace, defense, and robotics sectors [1][7]. - Looking ahead to January 2026, the market may refocus on performance and liquidity improvements, with expectations for a stable start to the domestic economy despite current weak demand [1][7]. Group 2: Key Upcoming Events - The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on January 23 is crucial, as the previous meeting raised the benchmark rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, indicating a clear policy direction [2][8]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 28 is anticipated to maintain the current rate, with expectations for a new chairperson to emerge, potentially influencing global capital markets [3][8]. - By January 31, A-share listed companies must release performance forecasts for 2025, which may impact market pricing based on industry performance [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - In January, the importance of performance realization increases, with a focus on core technology and manufacturing sectors, particularly in overseas computing power, storage, consumer electronics, and wind energy storage [4][8]. - There is potential for rotation into low-position innovative drugs and gaming sectors, which may see fundamental improvements in Q1 [4][8]. - The global manufacturing sector is expected to resonate in 2026, benefiting from fiscal and monetary easing, with a focus on manufacturing in the export chain and related sectors such as real estate and automotive [9].

Core Viewpoint - The upgrade of digital RMB from a "pilot product" to a "core liability and infrastructure" of banks will lead to an "order-driven + long-term penetration" impact on A-shares, rather than a simple thematic trade [1][2]. Group 1: Digital RMB Upgrade - The People's Bank of China will officially launch a new generation of digital RMB measurement framework and management system starting January 1, 2026, transitioning from "cash-type 1.0" to "deposit currency-type 2.0" [2]. - The core of the 2.0 mechanism is the redefinition of liability attributes and the inclusion of a macro framework, where balances in real-name wallets at commercial banks will be treated as "account-based commercial bank liabilities" [3]. Group 2: Financial IT Impact - Financial IT companies are likely to benefit from the need for banks to transform their core systems, accounting, channels, and data governance as the digital RMB infrastructure is implemented [1]. - The digital RMB will enhance the willingness of users to hold and use it by providing interest payments on wallet balances, similar to traditional deposits, thus creating a manageable asset-liability space for banks [3]. Group 3: Technical Architecture - The proposed digital path includes an "account system + currency string + smart contracts," which aims to standardize the wallet system and enhance the resilience of the system while ensuring compatibility with distributed ledger technology (DLT) [4]. - The smart contract ecosystem will facilitate programmable digital payments, reducing misuse risks and compliance costs across various scenarios such as supply chain finance and fiscal subsidies [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Hengsheng Electronics, Jingbeifang, Changliang Technology, and Yuxin Technology are recommended for their potential in payment acceptance and terminal expansion [5]. - Communication operators like China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Mobile are expected to benefit directly from capabilities related to SIM hard wallets and cross-border connections [5].

数字人民币重大调整,利好金融 IT 和三方支付 [Table_Industry] 综合金融 ——金融科技行业双周报第二十期 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 孙坤(分析师) | 021-38038260 | sunkun@gtht.com | S0880523030001 | 本报告导读： 数字人民币迎利好，允许数币付息和部分准备金制度落地、跨境支付政策落地，利 好金融 IT 和三方支付；部分金融科技行业持续严格监管。 投资要点： 综合金融《数币余额开始付息，供需双向促规模 增长》2026.01.03 综合金融《数币体系升级，规模有望加速增长》 2025.12.29 综合金融《大模型第一股将上市,百融云发布 RaaS 战略》2025.12.22 综合金融《投融资再平衡持续，股权融资逐步回 暖》2025.12.22 股 票 研 究 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 ...

行业研究 数字人民币走向存款货币时代，金融 IT 和支付公司有望受益 2025 年 12 月 30 日 ——数字人民币行业动态点评 要点 事件：12 月 29 日，中国人民银行副行长陆磊发表《守正创新 稳步发展数字人 民币》文章。文章提到，中国人民银行出台了《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理 服务体系和相关金融基础设施建设的行动方案》，新一代数字人民币计量框架、 管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启动实施，标志着数 字人民币由现金型 1.0 版进入存款货币型数字人民币 2.0 版，升级为具备信用创 造和资产属性的金融基础设施，从而激活了整个金融体系的积极性，为大规模应 用和生态繁荣奠定了基石。 数字人民币以央行为主导，依托商业性金融机构和现有支付体系，在全球率先试 验成功"中央银行-商业机构"双层运营架构，形成中国特色数字货币发展道路： 当前，境内和跨境数字人民币试验推广取得积极成效，在各国央行试验推进的项 目中，数字人民币处于领跑态势。截至 2025 年 11 月末，数字人民币累计处理 交易 34.8 亿笔，累计交易金额 16.7 万亿元。通过数字人民币 APP 开立个人钱 包 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The financial technology sector is experiencing a mix of performance, with internet brokerages and financial IT companies showing strength, while cross-border payment stocks are declining. The financial technology ETF (159851) has shown signs of bullish reversal, indicating potential growth opportunities in the sector [1][8]. Market Performance - On December 26, the financial technology sector saw a slight increase, with mixed performance among constituent stocks. Internet brokerages and financial IT companies, such as Guoao Technology and Electronic Science Digital, led gains of over 5%, while cross-border payment stocks like Zhongyi Technology fell by more than 3% [1][8]. - The financial technology ETF (159851) experienced fluctuations, initially rising nearly 2% before closing up 0.24% with a total trading volume of 583 million yuan. Technical analysis suggests it may have broken out of a consolidation phase, signaling a bullish trend [1][8]. Funding Analysis - As of December 23, the financing balance for the financial technology ETF (159851) exceeded 440 million yuan, marking a historical high and indicating strong bullish sentiment among investors [3][10]. Future Market Outlook - The financial technology sector is poised for positive developments due to several factors. The A-share market has reached a record trading volume of over 400 trillion yuan, which is expected to benefit internet brokerages in terms of performance release in 2025 and 2026 [5][12]. - AI is becoming a core driver in the financial sector, enhancing product value and industry barriers through applications like smart investment advisory and big data risk control. This trend is expected to create new growth opportunities for leading financial IT firms [5][12]. - Current valuations in the financial technology sector have adjusted to near six-month lows, providing a safety margin for investors. The sector's low valuation combined with high market activity expectations and AI integration presents a timely opportunity for investment [6][13]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on the financial technology ETF (159851) and its associated funds, which cover a broad range of themes including internet brokerages, financial IT, cross-border payments, and AI applications. The ETF has demonstrated superior liquidity compared to its peers, averaging 800 million yuan in daily trading volume over the past six months [6][13].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released a draft for the revised rules of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), indicating significant changes in financial infrastructure and catalyzing the financial market [1] - The CIPS system is crucial for the internationalization of the Renminbi, connecting 174 direct participants and 1,509 indirect participants across 120 countries and regions by May 2025 [1] - The new rules enhance the flexibility of the CIPS system, allowing for additional business activities approved by the People's Bank of China, which opens up opportunities for future innovations [1] Policy Benefits - The CIPS system serves as a "highway" for Renminbi internationalization, facilitating nearly 35,000 cross-border Renminbi transactions daily [1] - Recent policy measures from the State Council, including 77 pilot measures related to financial technology and cross-border payments, are being promoted to other free trade zones and nationwide [2] - The launch of the Cross-Border Payment Link in Hong Kong allows real-time cross-border remittances, enhancing convenience for residents [2] Market Reactions - The financial software sector has reacted positively, with significant stock price increases for companies like Zhinancun and Dazhihui following the announcement [4] - Analysts are optimistic about the financial IT sector, noting that the new rules will facilitate the continuous expansion of CIPS, benefiting IT service providers [4] - Digital Renminbi applications are expanding, with innovative uses in offshore trade scenarios already being implemented [4] Investment Logic - There is a strong demand for a rebound in the financial technology sector, which has lagged behind other sectors since 2025 [5] - The balance between traditional financial stocks and technology innovation stocks is expected to converge, with opportunities arising from financial reforms [5] - The focus on intelligent risk control is becoming paramount in digital finance, with institutions encouraged to build advanced risk management platforms [5] Ecological Transformation - The upgrade of the cross-border payment system is expected to drive upgrades across the entire industry chain, from hardware to software and operational services [7] - Financial institutions are actively participating in the national "data factor" initiative, which aims to enhance the application of financial data through shared technologies [7] - There is a growing competition for digital finance talent, with institutions encouraged to recruit professionals with digital backgrounds [7] Opportunities and Challenges - Financial institutions must balance innovation with risk control, as highlighted in the new guidelines for artificial intelligence applications [8] - The complexity of managing external cooperation risks in the digital finance ecosystem is increasing, necessitating robust risk assessment frameworks [8] - Rapid technological advancements require financial institutions to continuously adapt and innovate, focusing on distributed and microservice architectures [8] Market Outlook - The CIPS system upgrade is expected to inject new momentum into the financial technology sector, with cross-border payments and digital Renminbi likely to remain active areas [10] - The market is trending towards balance, with undervalued financial stocks and growth-oriented technology stocks expected to rotate positively [10] - The financial technology sector is entering a promising era, with companies demonstrating technological strength and innovation likely to stand out [10]