行业研究丨深度报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 轮动对比视角复盘，当前非银子行业如何择时选 股？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历史上 A 股牛市中保险及券商表现如何？不同类型牛市下表现何异？节奏及持续性如何？站 在当前如何展望？我们梳理了 2012 年以来几次 A 股上涨周期中保险及券商指数涨跌及行业相 对表现，并进一步梳理一级行业月度涨跌轮动以探究行情节奏，最后结合当前时点进行分析展 望。我们认为当前估值上非银进入配置性价比区间，择时应合理配合政策及监管节奏增配，配 置上推荐高弹性保险与金融 IT。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 轮动对比视角复盘，当前非银子行业如何择时 2] 选股？ [Table_Summary2] 历史 ...

报告导读： 2025 年计算机业绩预告中，正向增长公司占比过半，呈现增长与下滑并存的 两极分化格局，利润端改善强于营收端，高增长主要集中在硬件与 AI 应用相关方向。 中位数数据显示， 2025 年计算机公司 利润表现优于营收 。 根据统计， 238 家发布业绩预告的公司中，仅 70 家发布营收数据，营收增速的中位数为 0.97% 。归母净利润增速的中 位数为 1 7.83% ；扣非净利润增速的中位数为 28.68% 。总体而言，利润增速高于营收增速。此外，大市值公司在业绩区间 统计中更偏向增长端，在四季度业绩确定性相对更强。 2025 年计算机行业业绩正向占比过半， 增长与下滑两极分化 。 根据申万行业分类， 358 家计算机公司中发布业绩预告 238 家，占比达到了 66.5% 。根 据预计归母净利润同比增长中位数划分： 30%+ 共有 103 家，占 42.9% ； 10%~30% 27 家，占 11.3% ； 0~10% 12 家，占 5.0% ； 0~-10% 6 家，占 2.5% ； -10%~-30% 3 家，占 1.3% ； -30%+ 87 家，占 36.3% 。整体呈现"两头大、中间小"的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in market trading volume and new fund issuance at the beginning of 2026, which is favorable for the fundamentals of financial IT and brokerage sectors. Brokerage firms are expected to continue rapid growth in their brokerage business, while investment banking, asset management, and overseas expansion are likely to enhance the return on equity (ROE) of leading brokerage firms. The insurance sector has also seen a strong start in both individual and bank-insurance channels, with a continued trend of deposit migration, suggesting a positive outlook for the insurance sector in the spring market [4][6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 3.44 trillion, down 16% week-on-week; however, the average trading volume since the beginning of 2026 is 3.64 trillion, a 105% increase compared to Q1 2025 [4] - New stock and mixed fund issuance in January 2026 totaled 44.3 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase [4] - The "Public Fund Performance Benchmark Guidelines" was officially released on January 23, 2026, establishing stricter standards for benchmark selection and changes, enhancing performance evaluation and compensation management systems [4] Insurance Sector - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a stable research value for ordinary life insurance products at 1.89%, slightly down from 1.90% in the previous quarter, indicating a trend towards stability [6] - The individual insurance channel is under pressure due to various factors, but the strong start in 2026 is expected to improve new policy growth, aided by favorable market conditions [6] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with a potential valuation recovery towards 1x PEV for leading firms [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guangfa Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and China International Capital Corporation H, as well as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance [7]

Group 1: AI and Transportation - Didi and Zhizhu have announced a strategic partnership to explore the application of General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) in the transportation sector, marking a significant step towards the industrialization of travel agents [1] - This collaboration is expected to serve as a model for the application of AGI technology in real-world scenarios, potentially influencing the global landscape of AGI applications [1] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion - The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Energy Technology and Industry Conference will be held in Hefei, Anhui, focusing on opportunities for the development of nuclear fusion energy and fostering collaboration among various stakeholders [2] - The International Energy Agency estimates that the global fusion market could exceed $100 billion by 2030, indicating significant long-term growth potential for the industry [2] Group 3: Beidou Navigation - Zhejiang Province is seeking public input on its "14th Five-Year" digital economy and infrastructure plan, which includes optimizing the Beidou navigation system and enhancing its integration with other communication systems [3] - The Beidou system is expected to see increased application across various sectors, with 95% coverage in low-altitude economic activities and 98% of smartphones supporting Beidou technology [3] Group 4: Financial IT - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with a record turnover of 3.6 trillion yuan on January 12, 2025, indicating heightened market activity [4] - The number of new margin trading accounts reached 1.54 million in 2025, the highest in nearly a decade, reflecting strong investor interest in margin trading [4] - Financial IT companies are expected to benefit from the increased trading activity and the ongoing digital transformation in the financial sector, driven by policy support and technological advancements [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates a decline in fintech concept stocks, with significant drops in companies such as Zhina Zhen and Yinzhijie, which fell over 3%, while Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, and Hengsheng Electronics dropped over 2% [1] - Affected by the adjustment of heavy-weight stocks, fintech-related ETFs experienced a decline of over 2% [1] Group 2 - Specific ETF performance shows that the Huaxia Fintech ETF decreased by 2.59% to 1.431, while the Fintech ETF dropped by 2.35% to 0.871 [2] - Other ETFs also reported declines, with the Fintech ETF Index down 2.39% to 0.939, and the Huizheng Fintech ETF down 2.21% to 0.928 [2] - Institutions suggest that with policy support and a stable macro environment, the financial sector's fundamentals are improving, and the income of financial IT companies is expected to grow gradually [2] - The acceleration of revolutionary stablecoins and the anticipated release of significant financial policies may present investment opportunities in the financial IT sector [2]

Group 1 - Financial technology sector showed resilience with stocks like Cuiwei Co. hitting the daily limit, and companies such as Yingshi Sheng and Xinchen Technology rising over 10% [1][5] - The largest financial technology ETF (159851) experienced a price increase and significant trading volume, indicating active buying interest [1][5] - The recent reduction in risk factors for insurance companies by the financial regulatory authority is expected to expand the scale of insurance capital investments in A-shares, encouraging more market participation [1][6] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities identifies two main lines of opportunity in financial technology for 2026: short-term market activity and mid-term performance elasticity in financial IT, driven by policy support [3][7] - The financial technology ETF (159851) has a current scale exceeding 9 billion, with an average daily trading volume of 800 million over the past six months, leading among similar ETFs [3][7] - The ETF covers a wide range of themes including internet brokerage, financial IT, cross-border payments, AI applications, and Huawei's HarmonyOS [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector experienced a significant rally in the afternoon, with various ETFs related to financial technology, securities, and insurance rising over 3% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight fluctuation in the morning but collectively rose in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.7% to 3902 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.08%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.36% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 177.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 4400 stocks rising [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - Financial technology ETFs, including those from Fuqu, rose over 4%, while several other financial technology and securities ETFs increased by more than 3% [1] - The Securities ETF tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, providing an efficient investment tool for both leading and smaller brokerages [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index, with a composition of 67% insurance, 13% Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and 15% brokerages, making it the ETF with the highest insurance content in the market [2] Group 3: Regulatory Changes - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies, reducing the risk factor for stocks held over three years from 0.3 to 0.27 and for stocks held over two years from 0.4 to 0.36 [2] - The risk factor for export credit insurance and overseas investment insurance premiums was lowered from 0.467 to 0.42, and the reserve risk factor was reduced from 0.605 to 0.545 [2] Group 4: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley included China Ping An in its focus list, maintaining a "preferred" rating and significantly raising the target price for A-shares from 70 yuan to 85 yuan (+21%) and for H-shares from 70 HKD to 89 HKD (+27%) [4] - Dongwu Securities highlighted that opportunities in financial technology are primarily focused on two main lines: short-term market activity sustainability and mid-term performance elasticity in financial IT, driven by policy support and steady progress in brokerage innovation [4]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Industry Selection - In 2026, AI is expected to significantly drive growth in the computer industry, resonating with high-growth sectors such as domestic production, quantum technology, financial IT, and intelligent driving [2] - The rapid iteration of models and high demand for computing power may accelerate commercialization [2] - The advancement of industrial software into a "deep water zone" is anticipated to support the strategy of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse [2] - These dynamics could collectively promote both performance and valuation recovery in the industry [2] Group 2: Real Estate Strategy for 2026 - The real estate sector is projected to transition from "scale expansion" to a new phase of "quality efficiency" in 2026 [5] - Policy tools are expected to achieve a "bottom line + quality improvement" dual drive through affordable housing and urban renewal [5] - Core cities' improved residential properties may become new anchors for capital amidst differentiated demand [5] - Following supply clearance, the increase in industry concentration is likely to reshape the competitive landscape of real estate companies [5] - REITs and light asset models are anticipated to initiate a new investment logic characterized by "low volatility and stable returns" [5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Outlook for 2026 - The article discusses when the oversupply of oil may reach an inflection point and the marginal shifts in supply and demand expected next year, along with the equilibrium price of oil [7] - A global LNG expansion wave is anticipated, with ongoing interest in gas turbines, presenting opportunities in the European and American natural gas markets [7] Group 4: AI and Market Strategy - The article explores concerns regarding the AI bubble and how traditional macro strategy frameworks may fail to capture AI's impact [9] - Beyond the "bubble theory," the debt-driven growth associated with AI is expected to create various opportunities [9]

Group 1: Computer Industry Insights - In 2026, AI is expected to deeply drive the growth of the computer industry, resonating with high-growth sectors such as domestic production, quantum technology, financial IT, and intelligent driving [2] - The rapid iteration of models and high demand for computing power may accelerate commercialization [2] - Industrial software is moving into a "deep water zone," which will support the strategy of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse [2] - These dynamics could jointly promote the industry's dual recovery in performance and valuation [2] Group 2: Debt Market Opportunities - Current divergences in the stock market may create a rare allocation window for the bond market [5] - The yield of ten-year government bonds is suggested to have significant value [5] - The bond market may return to a fundamental pricing logic under the "low interest rate + high volatility" scenario in 2026 [5] Group 3: Deep Sea Technology Outlook - Deep sea technology is projected to release trillion-level opportunities by 2026 [7] - The acceleration of deep-sea mining by the U.S. and its inclusion in China's government work report may reshape the global competitive landscape [7] - There is potential for deep-sea mining to achieve cost parity by 2033, sparking a new wave of equipment investment [7] - Investors are advised to consider short-term FPSO supply chain opportunities and long-term underwater robotics [7] Group 4: Meituan Q3 Performance Review - Meituan's Q3 takeaway business reported a nearly 20 billion loss, raising questions about whether this is the peak [9] - Management's guidance on profitability recovery for Q4 following intense price competition is under scrutiny [9] - The in-store travel business is facing challenges with slowing growth and declining profit margins [9] - The expansion pace and investment efficiency of the new overseas engine, Keeta, in markets like Brazil are being evaluated [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of various ETFs and sectors in the market, highlighting the strong performance of AI applications and financial technology sectors, while noting the overall market adjustments on November 18, 2025 [3][5]. Market Overview - The market temperature gauge indicates a significant portion of the indices are at high valuation levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index at a 96.05% percentile over the past decade [1]. - The article notes a general decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.81%, the ChiNext Index down by 0.92%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.16% [1]. Sector Performance - The media sector saw a net inflow of 2.533 billion, while the computer sector had an inflow of 1.172 billion, and the communication sector saw an inflow of 300 million [2]. - Conversely, the power equipment sector experienced a significant outflow of 20.528 billion, followed by the non-ferrous metals sector with an outflow of 7.351 billion, and the basic chemicals sector with an outflow of 7.157 billion [2]. ETF Performance - The article lists several ETFs with notable performance, including the AI-focused ETFs which have shown strong returns, with the AI application sector index rising nearly 1% on the reporting date [3][5]. - Specific ETFs such as the Big Data Industry ETF and the Financial Technology ETF have shown substantial growth over the past six months, with respective increases of 14.64% and 20.76% [3][8]. Investment Trends - The article emphasizes the potential for domestic AI applications to experience a turning point, driven by policy support and market growth, particularly in the financial technology sector [5][6]. - The financial technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a clear investment logic for 2026 based on ongoing policy support and market dynamics [5][6].