Core Viewpoint - New Yangfeng reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 11.63% and a net profit growth of 28.98% for the first half of the year, but showed a slight decline in revenue and a slowdown in profit growth in the second quarter compared to the first quarter [1][4]. Company Performance - New Yangfeng achieved a revenue of 93.98 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.51 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 11.63% and 28.98% [4]. - In the first quarter, the company reported revenues of 46.68 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.15 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.98% and 49.61% [4]. - In the second quarter, revenues and net profits were 47.30 billion yuan and 4.36 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a decline in revenue growth and a slowdown in profit growth [4]. Product Performance - Sales revenue for phosphate fertilizers and new compound fertilizers increased by 39.34% and 26.83%, respectively, with gross margins improving by 4.27 and 2.58 percentage points [5]. - Conventional compound fertilizers saw a sales revenue decline of 6.66%, but gross margins increased by 0.14 percentage points [5]. Industry Trends - The overall performance of listed fertilizer companies is strong, but there is performance differentiation due to varying self-supply capabilities of raw materials [3]. - Analysts predict that the gross margins in the raw material market will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the gross margins for compound fertilizers may struggle to improve [6][7].

Group 1 - The company Yuntianhua (SH 600096) held its first board meeting of the tenth session on August 11, 2025, to discuss the election of the chairman of the audit committee [1] - For the year 2024, Yuntianhua's revenue composition is as follows: fertilizers account for 43.87%, trade for 41.57%, phosphate chemicals for 4.5%, others for 3.98%, and engineering materials for 2.36% [1] - As of the report date, Yuntianhua's market capitalization is 45.4 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - In July, urea prices experienced a spike followed by a decline due to macroeconomic factors, with expectations of maintaining volatility in August as fundamentals become crucial [1] - High supply remains the primary pressure on urea prices, with daily production exceeding 190,000 tons, marking a historical high compared to previous years [4] - As of August 7, urea enterprise inventory reached 783,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week, indicating sustained high supply levels [4] Group 2 - Demand for compound fertilizers is expected to improve in August, becoming the main driver of demand as production ramps up for the autumn season, with compound fertilizer operating rates rising to approximately 34%, a 14 percentage point increase from previous lows [5] - Recent adjustments in export policies have allowed for partial exports of urea to India, with price floors set at $470/ton for small granules and $490/ton for large granules, potentially providing support to the market [6] - The raw material side remains relatively strong, with coal prices increasing from around 620 yuan/ton to 675 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.87%, which may lead to increased production costs for urea [7] - Overall, despite high supply acting as a key suppressive factor, support from raw materials, domestic demand, and exports may lead to a "top-down, bottom-up" volatile market for urea in August [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the urea industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitudes are expected to be between - 5% and 5% [4][84] 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is influenced by a mix of long and short factors. Macro - level factors, cost, and export prospects are positive, while domestic demand is negative. Therefore, the market is expected to oscillate [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Urea production was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons (1.94% week - on - week). The weekly average daily production was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, a decrease of 1.62% week - on - week. Some provinces saw production and capacity utilization changes. Overall, the supply factor is neutral [4] - **Demand**: The urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Shandong Linyi was 930 tons, a decrease of 200 tons (17.70% week - on - week). The pre - received order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.53 days, an increase of 0.41 days (6.70% week - on - week). The demand factor is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The port sample inventory was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (2.03% week - on - week). The total enterprise inventory was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons (3.24% week - on - week). The inventory factor is neutral [4] - **Basis/Spread**: The UR spread had a narrow - range oscillation this week, and the factor is neutral [4] - **Profit**: The theoretical profit of urea sample enterprises had a narrow - range fluctuation. The theoretical profit of coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 167 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), that of the new coal - water slurry process was 282 yuan/ton (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week), and that of the gas - fired process was - 185 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The profit factor is bullish [4] - **Valuation**: The full cost of the fixed - bed process is about 1600 - 1700 yuan/ton, and that of the new coal gasification process is around 1400 - 1500 yuan/ton. The valuation factor is neutral [4] - **Macro and Policy**: There is an expectation of anti - involution policy, and the cost - side support is relatively strong. The macro and policy factor is bullish [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, also wait and see [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The domestic urea market first rose and then declined this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized particles in Shandong dropped to 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After the export policy was announced, the market trading sentiment cooled down, and the short - term market may decline slightly again [6] 3.3 Urea Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Supply Data**: The report presents data on daily urea production, weekly production of large and small particles, production from coal and natural gas sources, and the capacity utilization rate over multiple years [28][30] - **Downstream Agricultural Demand**: Data on corn, wheat, and rice prices, as well as pre - received order days, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and compound fertilizer prices are provided [45][48] - **Downstream Industrial Demand**: Information about the capacity utilization rate and production of formaldehyde, production of melamine, capacity utilization rate of melamine, national building materials and home furnishing index, and vehicle urea price is presented [54][58] - **Inventory and Export Situation**: Data on factory inventory, port inventory, Guangxi inventory, downstream enterprise inventory, compound fertilizer inventory, and export volume are shown [65][71] - **Cost and Profit**: The report provides data on fixed - bed cost, coal - water slurry cost, natural gas - fired cost, and their corresponding profits over multiple years [77]

金融界8月11日消息，有投资者在互动平台向新洋丰提问：二季度作为公司传统旺季，为何营收反而同 比出现了6%的下滑。具体是销量出现下滑，还是产品价格下跌导致？ 公司回答表示：尊敬的投资者，您好！今年的春肥行情集中在一季度，而去年同3月东北气温低，春肥 销售延迟，造成了去年4月份基数高，今年4月份的量偏低。另外，5、6月因为原材料价格回调，而夏季 肥和秋季肥出现了销售延迟，复合肥需求刚性，经销商会在三季度需求爆发时采购。感谢您对公司的关 注！责任编辑：磐石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company Xin Yang Feng (000902) indicated that this year's spring fertilizer sales were concentrated in the first quarter, contrasting with last year's delayed sales due to low temperatures in Northeast China in March [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Last year's high sales in April were attributed to a high base effect, while this year's sales volume in April was lower [1] - The sales of summer and autumn fertilizers were delayed in May and June due to a decline in raw material prices [1] Group 2: Market Demand - The demand for compound fertilizers remains rigid, and distributors are expected to increase purchases during the third quarter when demand surges [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented new tariffs on imported goods from multiple trade partners, effective August 7, impacting the fertilizer market significantly [1] - Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, major suppliers of phosphate fertilizers to the U.S., will face a 10% tariff, while Jordan and Israel will incur a 15% tariff [1] - Saudi Arabia exported 519,000 tons of ammonium phosphate to the U.S. from January to May 2025, accounting for 54.7% of total U.S. ammonium phosphate imports [1] Group 2 - Trinidad and Tobago, the second-largest ammonia supplier to the U.S. after Canada, will face a 15% tariff, but the market impact is expected to be limited [2] - Algeria's granular urea will be subject to a 30% tariff, while Nigeria will face a 15% tariff, both being significant suppliers to the U.S. fertilizer market [1] - The price assessment for diammonium phosphate in New Orleans is between $785 and $800 per short ton, while urea is priced at $455 to $465 per short ton [2]

美国政府对多个贸易伙伴进口商品加征的新关税于8月7日生效，此次关税调整涉及的多个国家在2020至 2024年间均位列美国化肥进口来源国前列。据标准普尔全球近日发布报告称，这将对美国化肥市场造成 冲击。 7月31日特朗普签署的最新行政令显示，巴西出口商品将被加征10%的关税，叠加7月30日确定的40%关 税，总税率达到50%。不过，经过美国与巴西政府的艰难谈判，巴西部分化肥产品被纳入豁免清单，其 中包括含氮、磷、钾三种营养元素的矿物或化学肥料，以及含磷和钾的肥料。巴西化肥行业的消息人士 担忧，巴西政府会采取报复性行动。 截至7月31日，普氏资讯评估的磷酸一铵新奥尔良驳船价为785~800美元/短吨，磷酸二铵为805美元/短 吨;尿素驳船价455~465美元/短吨，加勒比地区氨评估价为450美元/短吨。 此外，特立尼达和多巴哥作为美国氨的主要来源国之一，是仅次于加拿大的美国第二大氨进口来源国， 将被征收15%的关税。不过市场人士认为此举影响不会太大，有消息人士称："毕竟不是50%的高税 率。"阿尔及利亚的颗粒尿素将面临30%的关税，尼日利亚则为15%，两国均是美国化肥市场的重要供 应方。标普全球大宗商品洞察旗下普 ...

长江期货尿素周报： 上下有限 区间震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 尿素：上下有限 区间震荡 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格先强后弱，8月8日尿素2509合约收盘价1728元/吨，较上周上调19元/吨，涨幅 1.11%。尿素现货河南市场日均价1771元/吨，较上周上调17元/吨，涨幅0.97%。基差：尿素主力基差震荡运行， 周度基差运行区间-8-45元/吨，8月8日河南市场主力基差43元/吨，较上周基本持平，期间8月5日收盘基差-8元/吨。 价差：尿素9-1价差走弱，表现为01合约升水，8月8日9-1价差-23元/吨，周度运行区间-23——-10元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率82.72%，较上周降低2.21个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.47%， 较上周降低3.15个百分点，尿素日均产量18.98万吨。成本端无烟煤市场价格稳中偏强调整，下游用煤企业原料煤采 购仍以刚需为主，对高价煤接受度一般。截至8月7日，山西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价820-890元 ...

公司第二季度业绩出现显著好转。尿素和三聚氰胺的售价环比分别增长10%和11%。同时，得益于销售 网络的扩张，复合肥和三聚氰胺的销量环比分别增长29%和20%。 中国心连心化肥公布，上半年公司收入约126.66亿元，同比增长5%；但受产品售价降幅大于成本降幅 影响，母公司拥有人应占溢利约5.99亿元，同比减少12.77%。其中，尿素产品毛利大幅下滑是主要原 因。 ...