Core Viewpoint - Fertilizer stocks have shown strong performance, with notable increases in share prices following the agreement on potash import prices for 2026, which is expected to stabilize domestic supply and prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Heart and Heart Fertilizer (01866) increased by 4.55%, reaching HKD 8.74 [1] - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) rose by 4.58%, reaching HKD 1.6 [1] - CNOOC Chemical (03983) saw a rise of 4.53%, reaching HKD 2.54 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - On November 23, a consensus was reached between the Chinese potash import negotiation team and major international suppliers, setting the 2026 potash import contract price at USD 348 per ton (CFR), a year-on-year increase of USD 2 per ton compared to 2025 [1] - The agreement helps maintain China's position as a "price lowland" for global potash, ensuring stable domestic supply and price [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the daily production of urea is expected to remain high due to policy support and profit recovery, which exerts significant pressure on prices [1] - However, timely adjustments in export policies have alleviated some downward pressure on prices, leading to a more stable short-term market for domestic urea [1] - Rising coal prices are also contributing to support for urea prices by increasing cash flow cost lines for coal-based production [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fertilizer stocks showed strong performance today, with notable increases in share prices for several companies following the agreement on potash import prices for 2026, which supports domestic supply and price stability [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) rose by 4.55%, reaching HKD 8.74 [1] - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) increased by 4.58%, reaching HKD 1.6 [1] - CNOOC Chemical (03983) gained 4.53%, reaching HKD 2.54 [1] Group 2: Market Developments - On November 23, the Chinese potash import negotiation team reached an agreement with major international potash suppliers, setting the 2026 contract price at USD 348 per ton (CFR), a USD 2 increase from 2025 [1] - This price adjustment continues to maintain a "price lowland" for global potash, ensuring domestic supply and price stability [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Nanhua Futures (603093) indicated that in November, supported by policies for supply assurance and profit recovery, daily urea production is expected to remain high, exerting significant pressure on prices [1] - However, timely and continuous adjustments to export policies have alleviated downward pressure on prices, leading to a more stable short-term domestic urea market [1] - Rising coal prices are also contributing to support for urea prices, as the cash flow cost line for coal-based production increases [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers of urea are currently neutral, with the subsequent upward movement of the drivers depending on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment. The continuous reduction of visible inventory supports the price [2][3] - The short - term valuation range of urea has shifted upward. The static valuation pressure above the futures is around 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, and the support below the 01 contract is expected to be at 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of urea was 1,677 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,678 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract was 173,436 lots, an increase of 14,693 lots, and the open interest was 223,887 lots, a decrease of 7,026 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,587 tons, an increase of 406 tons, and the trading volume was 581,995 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 53,412 ten - thousand yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 7, up 11; the spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 66, down 7 [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of some urea manufacturers remained stable, while the prices of Shanxi Fengxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side operating rate was 84.10%, up 0.99 percentage points, and the daily output was 203,380 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons [1] Industry News - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.10%. The inventory of enterprises in some regions decreased, while that in some regions increased [2] - The demand side, with the superposition of reserves and exports, has led to a phased improvement in the urea fundamentals, and the driver has changed from downward to neutral [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, urea, asphalt, soda ash [1][3][5] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, natural gas [3][5] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, glass [1][5] - **Bearish Continuation**: Soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season dominates. Geopolitical tensions ease, and prices are under pressure. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8]. - **LPG**: Saudi Arabia raises CP contract price, but the market has priced it in. There is short - term correction pressure. Consider buying put options [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PP**: 12 - month CP quote rises, providing cost support. Supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PVC**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed. Social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support. Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. Consider going long on dips [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure may ease with future device maintenance, but there is a cumulative inventory expectation in December. Lack of upward drivers, consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure is still high. Consider going long on 05 contract on dips [3]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand is supported, and prices are likely to rise [5]. - **Asphalt**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are under pressure. Continue to hold short positions [5]. - **Glass**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans. Short - term may be strong, but long - term is bearish [5]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak. Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On November 27, WTI decreased by 0.17%, Brent decreased by 0.78%, and SC increased by 1.30% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season, and geopolitical tensions ease [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply: US oil rig count decreases, and Mexican oil production declines. Demand: OPEC expects global oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. Inventory: US crude and refined product inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [10]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On November 28, the PG main contract closed at 4361 yuan/ton, up 2.16% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, downstream demand is resilient, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [13]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: 12 - month CP quote rises, supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed, social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking. Pay attention to the range of V [4500 - 4700] [26]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4740] [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol device starts to increase, but future integrated device maintenance will ease supply pressure. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3850 - 3920] [32]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Taicang spot strengthens, port inventory decreases, supply pressure is high, and demand improves [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to pay attention to going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA [2105 - 2145] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: URO5 closed at 1743 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1640 - 1680] [41]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 27, the NG main contract closed at 4.850 dollars/million British thermal units, up 6.41% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: EU bans Russian gas imports, entering the consumption peak season, and demand is supported [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.680 - 5.000] [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 28, the BU main contract closed at 2996 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Multiple production lines plan cold - repair in December, but demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation. Short - term may be strong, long - term is bearish. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [54]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton [57]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of SA [1140 - 1180] [58].

长江期货尿素周报： 去库延续 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-12-1 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 尿素：去库延续 01 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格先跌后涨，12月28日尿素2601合约收盘价1677元/吨，较上周上调23元/吨，期间最 高1687元/吨，最低1625元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1636元/吨，较上周上调6元/吨，涨幅0.37%。基差：尿素 主力基差先强后弱，12月28日河南市场主力基差-41元/吨，周度基差运行区间（-41）—（-9）元/吨。价差：尿素 1-5价差先强后弱，12月28日1-5价差-66元/吨，周度运行区间（-73）—（-59）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率86.4%，较上周提升0.55个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率74.44%，较 上周提升1.55个百分点，尿素日均产量20.24万吨。成本端无烟煤市场交投有所降温，煤价持稳运行，至11月27日， 山西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价900-960元/吨，较上 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 30 日 发改委持续推进"反内卷"进程， 多地 MDI 停车检修致价格上涨， 钾肥进口大合同同比持稳 看好 ——《化工周报 25/11/24-25/11/28》 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The chemical sector has shown positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index by 4.54%, and the CSI 300 by 1.64% during the week. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.49%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.98% [2][14] - Key sub-industries within the chemical sector have experienced varied performance, with membrane materials leading at 7.48% growth, followed by titanium dioxide at 5.85% and chlor-alkali at 4.57% [2][17] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical announced a price increase of $200/ton for MDI products in Southeast Asia and South Asia starting December 1, 2025, due to market conditions and supply stability [3] - South Korea raised anti-dumping duties on PET film imports from China, significantly increasing the tax rate on Tianjin Wanhua's products from 3.84% to 36.98% [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on scarce growth targets. Recommended companies include Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [4] - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in consumer electronics is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies. Key players in the panel supply chain include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Light Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [4] - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector are tightening the supply-demand balance. Recommended companies include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and Batian Co. [5] - **Fluorochemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants is stabilizing profitability, with a focus on companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. [5] - **Economic Recovery**: As the economy improves, leading chemical companies are expected to benefit significantly from price and demand recovery. Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [9] - **Vitamin Supply Disruptions**: BASF's supply issues with vitamins A and E are expected to create market imbalances, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hecheng recommended for attention [9] Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: Pure MDI prices in East China rose to 19,700 RMB/ton, a 1.55% increase week-on-week, with operating rates stable at 68% [30] - **Tire Industry**: Full steel tire operating rates increased to 63.91%, while semi-steel tire rates decreased to 72.37% [54] - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices rose to 1,679.1 RMB/ton, with operating rates for urea at 86.4% [67][68] - **Vitamins**: Vitamin A prices remained stable at 63 RMB/kg, while Vitamin E prices fell by 2.88% to 50.5 RMB/kg [86][87] - **Fluorochemicals**: Fluorspar prices decreased to 3,350 RMB/ton, with a decline in operating rates to 34.12% [91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The urea market in 2026 is expected to rise first and then fall, with range-bound fluctuations. The supply is expected to remain loose due to continuous capacity expansion, while demand is likely to show a slight growth trend. Export policies are a key uncertain factor [1][7]. - The cost of coal is expected to move slightly higher in 2026, and the industry's production profit may remain at a marginal level due to the continuous release of new capacity [6]. - The report suggests a cash - futures positive spread strategy and recommends a 5 - 9 positive spread based on seasonality [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Market Review - In 2025, affected by the reduction in export scale in 2024 and the continuous effectiveness of domestic supply - stabilizing and price - controlling policies, the spot price of urea entered a downward channel in Q4 2024 and remained weak throughout 2025, with the annual average price at a near - five - year low. The price fluctuated in different periods due to factors such as agricultural demand, export policies, and macro - market sentiment [17]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production - In 2025, the urea industry faced increasing supply pressure, with new capacity of 591 million tons/year, mainly concentrated in Q2 and Q3. The domestic capacity was expected to reach 81.31 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 7.84%. The daily output reached a new high in recent years, and the annual average operating rate was expected to remain above 80%. The cumulative production by October was 59.0652 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.85%, and the full - year output was expected to exceed 70 million tons. In 2026, it is still a year of concentrated new device commissioning, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.48% [23]. - The 2025 and 2026 China urea commissioning tables list specific enterprises, commissioning times, and capacities. In 2025, the total commissioned capacity was 591 million tons/year, and in 2026, it is expected to be 527 million tons/year [30]. 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - In 2025, coal prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and natural gas prices increased slightly in Q4. The production profit of urea enterprises was good in the first half of the year but shrank significantly in the second half as the product price dropped rapidly. Currently, the profit structure is clearly differentiated, with natural gas and fixed - bed processes in the loss area and new coal gasification processes still profitable. In 2026, the production profit is expected to remain at a marginal level [32]. - The overall operating rate of urea declined in Q4 2025, mainly due to the technical transformation and maintenance of fixed - bed devices in Shanxi and the loss - based maintenance of some enterprises. In the long - term, technological iteration is a key variable, and the continuous progress of fixed - bed technological transformation will drive the weighted cost curve of the industry to move down systematically [43]. 3.4 Urea Import and Export - In 2025, the total import and export volume of urea is expected to return to the 2023 level. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The export volume gradually recovered as exports were gradually liberalized, and by October, a total of 4.01 million tons had been exported, with the full - year export expected to return to the 2023 level. In 2026, the export expectation continues to improve, but export policies are a core variable [53]. - In 2025, China's urea export showed significant phased characteristics. The export volume was low in the first half of the year and increased rapidly in the second half due to factors such as the relaxation of export policies and the tightening of international supply. The export focus is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia and countries along the Belt and Road, and India's demand is still strong [56]. 3.5 Urea Consumption and Inventory - In 2025, the urea market showed a "strong first and weak later" supply - demand pattern. The apparent consumption is expected to increase slightly by 1.58% year - on - year, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2026, the demand is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend, but the growth rate may be affected by seasonality and policies [67]. - Agricultural demand is the largest downstream demand for urea. High - standard farmland construction will increase urea consumption, but the growth rate will gradually slow down. Black - land protection will reduce some urea consumption, while saline - alkali land treatment will bring incremental demand. The overall agricultural demand is expected to grow at an annual compound growth rate of about 4% [68]. - The production and sales of compound fertilizers are seasonally significant. The procurement strategy of compound fertilizer enterprises has changed from "buying at low prices" to "pricing at selected points", which has postponed the demand for urea. The overall consumption of urea by compound fertilizers increases slightly with agricultural demand [77]. - Industrial demand, mainly from melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin, accounts for 25% of the total urea demand. The demand is closely related to the real - estate cycle. Currently, domestic demand is weak, but exports have provided some support, and the future demand is expected to remain weakly stable [92]. - The demand for urea in thermal power denitrification has entered a stock market, and the future demand will only be related to thermal power installation capacity and power generation, with the growth rate significantly slowing down and tending to be stable [8]. - As of November 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, significantly higher than the same period in previous years. The port inventory was 89,000 tons, showing a process of accumulation and then de - stocking. In 2026, the domestic urea industry is still in a capacity expansion cycle. Assuming an export volume of 7 million tons, the supply - demand will remain weakly loose [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The follow - up of reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer demand have improved the short - term supply - demand situation in the market. Urea is currently in a low - valuation state, and the improvement in supply - demand has accelerated enterprise inventory reduction. The basis and the spread between months have strengthened, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [12]. - The overall demand has improved due to the combination of reserve fertilizers and the rebound in compound fertilizer production. Against the backdrop of low valuations, prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. The supply remains relatively high, enterprise profits are gradually recovering but still at a low level, and the demand side shows seasonal recovery. The inventory reduction speed of enterprises has accelerated. With export policies and cost support, the downside space for urea is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The strategy is to consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Reserve demand and increasing compound fertilizer demand have improved short - term supply - demand. Urea is undervalued, and the improvement has accelerated inventory reduction. The basis and spreads have strengthened, with prices expected to rise [12]. - **Supply**: The enterprise operating rate is 83.71%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease, and the gas - based operating rate is gradually declining. The daily output is 20.34 tons, at a high level compared to the same period last year. The enterprise's advance orders are 6.65 days, a 0.47 - day week - on - week decrease, and new orders have slowed down after the price increase [12]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.06%, a 2.45% week - on - week increase, showing seasonal growth. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The basis has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has risen and then fallen. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Valuation**: The current domestic urea valuation is relatively low [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory is 143.72 tons, a 4.64 - ton week - on - week decrease, driven by domestic reserve demand and export preparations. Port inventory is 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and future port collection is expected to increase [12]. - **Market Logic**: The combination of reserve fertilizers and the rebound in compound fertilizer production has improved overall demand. Against the backdrop of low valuations, prices are expected to fluctuate upwards [12]. - **Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The prices of various futures contracts and domestic spot markets have changed. For example, the 09 contract price has increased by 23 to 1757, and the Shandong spot price has increased by 30 to 1670 [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis in some regions has strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 8 to - 66 [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Profits remain at a low level, including fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production profits [29]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory has decreased, and port inventory has remained stable. Future port collection is expected to increase [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Operating Rate**: It has returned to a high level compared to the same period last year. The overall operating rate is 83.71%, and the gas - based operating rate is gradually declining [12][40]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing or planning maintenance, which will affect production [43][45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Projection**: The monthly consumption shows certain trends and seasonal characteristics [50]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operating rate is seasonally increasing, and production profits have also improved [52][53]. - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources show certain trends [56]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate and profit situation are presented, and the export volume also shows certain changes [58][61]. - **Terminal Demand**: The export volume of plywood and the situation of the real - estate market (such as housing starts, completions, and sales) are related to urea demand [67][70]. - **Export**: The export profit is high, and the export volume shows certain trends [77][78]. 3.6. Option - Related - **Urea Options**: Data on option positions, trading volumes, PCR ratios, and volatility are presented [88][96]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Urea Industry Chain**: The characteristics of the urea industry chain and the seasonal demand for fertilizers in different regions and countries are summarized [99][106].

成文日期：20251126 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251126）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡上涨，收盘价为 1654 元/吨。最高达 1663 元/吨，最低为 1625 元/吨,成交量 20.8 万 手，较上日增加 11.02 万手，持仓量 22.9 万手，较上日减少 0.5 万 手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线级别图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 | 合约名称 | 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 日増仓 成交量 | | --- | --- | | 尿茎2512 | 1639 20 1.24% 3388 -608 | | 尿素2601 M | 1654 21 1.29% 229335 -4980 208209 1630 | | 展素2602 - | ...