格隆汇7月29日｜Paypal(PYPL.US)2025年Q2净营收82.9亿美元，去年同期78.85亿美元，市场预期80.86 亿美元；调整后运营收益16.4亿美元，预估15.5亿美元；调整后每股收益1.4美元，预估1.3美元。PayPal 提高全年调整后每股收益预期，预计全年调整后每股收益5.15美元至5.30美元，市场预估5.10美元。 PayPal仍然预测全年资本支出大约10亿美元，市场预估8.856亿美元；仍预测全年自由现金流60亿美元 至70亿美元，市场预估63.5亿美元。 ...

看好公司未来业务增长潜力，首次覆盖给予买入评级： 机构：国元国际 连连数字作为中国领先的跨境支付服务商，凭借其在全球七大核心市场的牌照布局和技术创新能力，持 续推动业务增长。未来公司的收入增长将受到多重因素的共同驱动，包括跨境电商出海的加速发展、人 民币国际化的持续推进，以及稳定币技术在支付和金融科技领域的广泛应用。我们采用分部估值法，分 别给予公司对应2025 年支付业务8 倍PS、增值服务业务20 倍PS目标估值，约160 亿港币市值目标，对 应目标价15.0 港元，相较于现价预计有20.0%的升幅，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 风险提示 研究员：李承儒 全球牌照与技术构筑核心壁垒，业务具备稳定币生态发展土壤： 公司是一家从境内第三方支付切入全球跨境电商场景的数字支付科技企业，目前向全球商户与企业提供 综合数字支付及交易科技平台服务，且公司的数字支付解决方案处于市场领先地位。公司围绕"支付 +科技+服务"构建三大业务板块，已经形成"一体两翼"架构。近期稳定币概念火热，我们认为公司是当 前市场上同时拥有稳定币支付场景生态和稳定币技术储备的稀缺标的，同时旗下还拥有虚拟资产交易平 台，未来也有较大概率获得香港稳定 ...

Group 1 - PayPal is set to launch a new payment feature allowing merchants to accept over a hundred cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the feature expected to go live in the coming weeks [3][4] - The new feature will enable automatic conversion of cryptocurrency payments into fiat currency or PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD, facilitating instant settlement for transactions [3] - PayPal's initiative aims to tap into the $3 trillion cryptocurrency market, with 650 million users, providing small and medium-sized enterprises access to a large consumer base [3][4] Group 2 - The initial transaction fee for the new cryptocurrency payment feature will be $0.99, which is lower than the average credit card processing fee of 1.57% expected in 2024 [3] - PayPal's stablecoin PYUSD has seen a market cap increase of approximately 70% since the beginning of 2023, currently valued at around $850 million [4] - The company is accelerating its efforts in the digital asset space, driven by the recovery of the cryptocurrency market and favorable regulatory conditions [4]

Group 1 - Microsoft has introduced the Copilot mode in its Edge browser, transforming it into a proactive tool that predicts user actions and allows for dynamic interactions without losing the current page context [1] - The Copilot mode enables users to perform tasks such as unit conversions and content translations seamlessly, marking a potential new competitive edge in the browser market [1] Group 2 - PayPal is set to launch a new payment feature that will allow merchants to accept over a hundred cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, with automatic conversion to fiat currency or its stablecoin PYUSD [2] - This feature aims to facilitate the use of cryptocurrencies in consumer transactions while reflecting a cautious approach towards the volatility of digital currencies [2] Group 3 - Bavarian Nordic A/S, a manufacturer of monkeypox vaccines, has agreed to be acquired by a European consortium for approximately 30 billion Danish kroner (about 3 billion USD), highlighting the scarcity and value of vaccines for emerging diseases [3] - The acquisition underscores the growing interest in pandemic-related assets as capital seeks to invest in critical health solutions [3] Group 4 - A research team from the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory has demonstrated that gold can be heated to over 14 times its melting point while maintaining its crystal structure, challenging long-held theories about material behavior under extreme conditions [4] - This groundbreaking study provides new insights into material properties at high temperatures, which could have implications for aerospace and other advanced material applications [4] Group 5 - Anthropic has announced a usage cap for its Claude Pro and Max services due to high operational costs, affecting a small percentage of users who excessively utilize the service [5] - This decision reflects the challenges of balancing service quality and cost management in the commercialization of large model services [5]

Group 1 - The technology sector is becoming a core driver of economic growth in China, with the launch of the Huaan Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme ETF providing new investment tools for investors in the Hong Kong technology space [1] - The ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme Index, which focuses on the AI industry chain and includes major tech companies such as Xiaomi, Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan [1] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Theme Index has a more concentrated weight limit of 10% per stock compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index's 8%, indicating a more focused investment strategy [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see revenue growth of 3.4% and profit growth of 8.5% in 2024, indicating a recovery from 2023, with the technology sector benefiting significantly from the overall growth of the AI industry [2] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology sector is projected to experience a profit growth rate of 51% in 2024, continuing the high growth trend established in 2023 [2] - As the domestic economy recovers and global asset rebalancing occurs, the investment value of Hong Kong stocks is expected to become more prominent, driven by advancements in AI technology and increased capital expenditure from tech leaders [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ant Group's CEO, Han Xin Yi, emphasized the transition from digital payment to intelligent payment, aiming to bridge the "last mile" of AI services, focusing on the application of AI to enhance everyday life for the public [2][3]. Group 1: AI Application Focus - Ant Group has established a strategy for the next decade centered on "AI first," aiming to accelerate its transformation into the AI era, with a focus on life services, financial services, and healthcare services [2]. - The company is developing accessible life, financial, and healthcare management services for the public, leveraging AI to provide professional, personalized, and automated services [2][3]. Group 2: Payment Innovations - Han highlighted the need to innovate payment methods to adapt to the AI era, stating that traditional digital payment methods may not fully meet the needs of this new age [3]. - Ant Group has launched the first domestic payment MCP, exploring natural language payment interactions between intelligent agents [3]. Group 3: Cross-Border Payment Solutions - The trend from digitalization to tokenization is facilitating rapid cross-border payment settlements, with Ant Group's Alipay+ aiming to enable global travelers to use a single wallet [3]. - The company is exploring tokenization to achieve second-level settlements in cross-border payments, operating 24/7 and significantly reducing costs [3]. Group 4: R&D Investment and Challenges - Ant Group has invested over 10% of its revenue in R&D annually for the past three years, with a record investment of 23.45 billion yuan planned for 2024 [4]. - The company is advancing foundational technologies such as identity verification, security, and data elements to support the large-scale application of AI [4]. Group 5: Global Presence and Future Plans - Ant Group has established its global headquarters, digital technology center, and wealth center in Shanghai, committing to deepening its presence in the city while serving global markets [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about its potential in the cross-border payment sector, highlighting its merchant accumulation, brand recognition, and market share growth potential, with a target price of HKD 17.3, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the latest closing price [1] Group 1: Business Overview - The company's digital payment business is divided into global payments, primarily serving cross-border e-commerce sellers, and domestic payments, catering to enterprise clients [1] - For 2024, the company's total payment volume (TPV) is projected to reach CNY 3.3 trillion, with global and domestic payment TPV expected to be CNY 281.5 billion and CNY 3.0 trillion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 63% and 65% [1] - Total revenue for 2024 is forecasted at CNY 1.31 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, with global payments contributing 70% to digital payment revenue [1] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The cross-border payment service market is relatively fragmented, with key competitors including Payoneer, PingPong, and others [1] - The company's global payment TPV is expected to account for 13.1% of China's cross-border e-commerce export value in 2024, up from 9.4% in 2023 [1] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The company has obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license, positioning it for future opportunities in virtual asset trading and stablecoin issuance [2] - Stablecoins are anticipated to be utilized in cross-border trade for small currency payments and settlements, addressing issues such as long settlement cycles and high fees [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - For 2025, the overall TPV is expected to grow by 27%, with global payments and domestic payments projected to increase by 45% and 25%, respectively [2] - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated to reach CNY 1.63 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase, with a stable gross margin of 52% [2] Group 5: Valuation - The company employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a target price of HKD 17.3, which includes a valuation of HKD 16.0 from its core business and HKD 1.3 from its equity stake in a connected company [3] - The company is viewed positively due to its growth in TPV, revenue, and profit improvement prospects, alongside innovations in cross-border payment technology [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of verifying each payment in the ACH network to identify and mitigate potential payment risks due to the rise in financial crime statistics [1][2]. Group 1: ACH Network Overview - The ACH network is a significant payment system in the U.S., handling direct deposits and payments, with a total payment value projected to exceed $86 trillion in 2024 [2]. - The growth in transaction volume benefits payment service providers and customers by enhancing speed and efficiency [2]. Group 2: Financial Crime Challenges - There has been a surge in financial crime activities, particularly payment fraud, posing challenges for participants in the payment sector [2]. - New threats include AI-driven fraud, deepfakes, and synthetic identity fraud, with projected losses from synthetic identity fraud in the U.S. expected to reach at least $23 billion by 2030 [2]. Group 3: Payment Verification Process - The ACH payment verification process consists of three critical steps: account verification, identity verification, and continuous monitoring [3][6][8]. - Account verification involves checking key information such as bank account numbers and balances to ensure the account is valid and operational [3][4]. - Identity verification is crucial for preventing fraud and complying with KYC and KYB regulations, utilizing data-driven methods and biometric checks [6][7]. Group 4: Best Practices for Fraud Prevention - Continuous monitoring of accounts is essential to detect suspicious activities early and mitigate the impact of fraud [8]. - Implementing best practice methods for verifying ACH payments is increasingly important to combat AI-driven fraud [10]. Group 5: Solutions for Account Verification - The article discusses solutions for efficient bank account verification to protect payments and reduce fraud, highlighting a dual verification method that enhances customer experience [11][12]. - The integrated bank database solution allows real-time verification of bank accounts and their owners, improving payment security and reducing ACH returns [12][18].

Core Insights - Analysts project that Paypal (PYPL) will announce quarterly earnings of $1.30 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.2% [1] - Revenues are expected to reach $8.1 billion, marking a 2.7% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 0.4% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [1] Revenue and Key Metrics - Revenues from other value-added services are projected to be $766.91 million, representing a year-over-year change of +4.8% [4] - Estimated transaction revenues are expected to be $7.31 billion, showing a +2.1% change from the year-ago quarter [4] - The transaction margin is projected to reach 46.7%, up from 45.8% in the previous year [4] Total Payment Volume and Active Accounts - The consensus estimate for Total Payment Volume (TPV) stands at $434.45 billion, compared to $416.81 billion a year ago [5] - Analysts suggest that active accounts will likely reach 438, up from 429 in the same quarter last year [5] - The average prediction for the number of payment transactions is 6,722, an increase from 6,580 reported in the same quarter last year [5] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Paypal shares have recorded returns of +4.9%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.7% change [6] - Based on its Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), Paypal is expected to outperform the overall market in the upcoming period [6]

Group 1 - Marco Digital Technology (01942) announced a conditional agreement to subscribe for 750,000 preferred shares of KUN International Group Limited for a total consideration of $6 million, equivalent to approximately HKD 47.1 million [1] - Following the completion of the transaction, the 750,000 preferred shares will represent about 5.27% of the total issued share capital of KUN International Group [1] - KUN operates a stablecoin-based payment and financial infrastructure platform, providing comprehensive services including payment, asset management, and card issuance for various clients such as B2B cross-border e-commerce and Web3 projects [1] Group 2 - The financing round will be utilized by KUN to enhance research and development in areas such as cross-border transaction security, underlying blockchain infrastructure, and wallet technology [2] - KUN aims to upgrade its AI risk control system and compliance capabilities while collaborating with global ecosystem partners to create a seamless digital payment network between Web2 and Web3 [2] - The collaboration with KUN is viewed as a significant strategic move for the group in the insurtech infrastructure space, focusing on building compliant and efficient stablecoin payment applications and solutions [2]