业绩基本符合市场预期 机构：中金公司 研究员：樊优/姚泽宇 风险 市场竞争加剧，宏观经济不确定性，海外展业不及预期，监管趋严风险。 AI 赋能提升运营效率，有效财务管理改善盈利能力；关注全球布局进展。 得益于AI 在各业务条线的更广泛应用，1H25 销售、行政及研发开支合计同比-19%，营业利润同比+3% 至5,880 万元。此外，公司积极升级股权结构及优化财务成本，1H25 融资成本同比-53%，推动税前利 润同比+24%至4,511 万元。公司在美国取得联邦支付牌照和亚利桑那州州级支付牌照，在日本获得日本 经济产业省的正式批准、授权展开线上线下扫码收单业务，公司预计将持续拓展于全球主要经济体的版 图。 盈利预测与估值 考虑费率回升及利润率改善，小幅上调25 年调整后EBITDA 3%至3.9 亿元、基本维持26 年调整后 EBITDA 4.4 亿元。公司当前交易于14x/10.5x25e/26e EV/EBITDA；考虑收入利润改善、市场情绪改 善，上调目标价65%至15.7 港币，对应17x/13x 25e/26e EV/EBITDA 及20%上行空间；维持跑赢行业评 级。 移卡1H25 总收入同比+4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of 2025, showcasing advancements in technology, successful business model transformation, and robust international growth [3]. Business and Financial Summary - The company has successfully obtained the Money Services Business federal payment license in the U.S. and the Money Transmitter License in Arizona, expanding its global footprint [2]. - Approval from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has been secured to conduct online and offline QR code payment services, enhancing local operations and commercial capabilities [2]. - The company has supported HSBC in enhancing its payment management solutions, adding support for Alipay, Alipay Hong Kong, and WeChat Pay, indicating strong international product penetration [2]. - The subsidiary, focusing on AI-generated content, has seen a monthly transaction volume growth of approximately 40%, with material costs reduced by 80%, and AI-generated content now accounts for 20% of total video production [2]. - The company maintains its leading position in one-stop payment services, with peak daily transaction volumes reaching nearly 60 million [2]. - Total Gross Payment Volume (GPV) for the first half of 2025 was RMB 1,144.4 billion, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, while overseas transaction volume exceeded RMB 1.5 billion, surpassing the total for the previous year [2]. - The payment fee rate for the first half of 2025 was 12.5 basis points, an increase of 1.0 basis point year-on-year, reflecting superior commercialization and business expansion capabilities [2]. - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 1,641.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [2]. - Gross profit for the first half of 2025 was RMB 383.0 million, up 27.6% year-on-year, with gross profit margin rising from 19.0% to 23.3% [2]. - The gross profit margin for one-stop payment services increased from 6.9% in the first half of 2024 to 13.7% in the first half of 2025, with overseas gross profit margins exceeding 50% [2]. - The application of AI across various business lines has led to a 19.3% reduction in sales, administrative, and R&D expenses year-on-year [2]. - Financing costs for the first half of 2025 decreased by 52.7% year-on-year due to structural upgrades and financial cost optimization [2]. - Net profit for the first half of 2025 was RMB 41.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 27.0% [2]. Outlook - The company plans to continue its dual strategy of international expansion and product innovation, embracing technological trends such as AI and blockchain to enhance operational efficiency and service intelligence [4].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report identifies resilient export products under tariff impacts, highlighting that products with technical barriers and differentiation show stronger pricing power in the long term, leading to a virtuous cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency" [2] - In the short term, a general decline in exports is observed, with more resilience reflected through re-export trade, and high-dependency products showing weak overseas substitution effects [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to be minimally affected by the recent Middle East tensions, as historical data shows limited impact during such events [3] - The report notes that the share of the Middle East in China's import and export trade is low, indicating a weak direct impact on the domestic economy [3] Group 3: Financial Sector Analysis - The report discusses the weak demand affecting credit expansion, with May's financial data showing a year-on-year decrease in credit growth, although government bond issuance supports social financing growth at a stable rate of 8.7% [8] - M1 growth rebounded due to a low base, while M2 growth remains stable [8] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Strong AI demand and rising storage prices are expected to boost the semiconductor sector, particularly benefiting companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor due to domestic substitution trends [9] - The report recommends focusing on companies with robust performance in non-volatile storage and FPGA sectors [9] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The report indicates that the transaction area of new homes in 30 core cities remained stable year-on-year, with average prices increasing by 5.6% [10] - Key cities like Beijing and Shanghai show significant price increases, suggesting a stabilization in high-tier cities [10] Group 6: Agricultural Sector - The report highlights a potential recovery in pig prices as inventory levels decrease, with policies driving the industry towards destocking [12] - Long-term profitability is anticipated post-destocking, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Zhengbang Technology [12] Group 7: Energy Sector - The report notes that seasonal demand for electricity is expected to support stable coal prices, with recommendations for companies with high long-term contracts like China Shenhua [13] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are also discussed, with rising oil prices observed [14] Group 8: Non-Banking Financial Services - The report emphasizes the growth potential of Yika, a leading commercial empowerment technology platform, predicting net profits of 101 million, 112 million, and 123 million yuan for 2025-2027 [15] - The company is expected to benefit from a competitive landscape in the payment sector [15] Group 9: Telecommunications Sector - The report projects significant growth for Shengyi Technology, driven by AI-related demand, with net profit forecasts of 2.628 billion and 3.280 billion yuan for 2025-2026 [16] - The long-term growth potential of the company is highlighted [16] Group 10: Retail Sector - The report indicates a significant improvement in operating profit margins for Chow Tai Fook, with a forecasted recovery in net profit for FY2026 and FY2027 [17] - The company's transformation strategy is showing positive results, with expectations of increased consumer demand for gold jewelry [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a recovery in performance driven by its global expansion strategy and continuous growth in its marketing services customer base [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 3.09 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million, showing a slight increase [3]. - The company's payment service fee rate for 2024 was 11.9 basis points, consistent with industry trends, indicating stable commercialization capabilities [3]. Payment Business - The revenue from the one-stop payment service in 2024 was 2.69 billion, down 22.9% year-on-year, primarily due to macroeconomic fluctuations affecting average transaction amounts [4]. - The gross margin for the one-stop payment service reached 14.2%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, demonstrating significant profitability resilience [4]. - The company maintains a leading position in the industry, with peak daily transaction counts approaching 60 million and a 32% year-on-year increase in the number of SaaS partners [4]. Merchant Solutions - Revenue from merchant solutions in 2024 was 340 million, a decrease of 6.4% from 360 million in 2023, but the gross margin remained stable at 87.2% [5]. - The company focuses on higher profitability customer segments, maintaining strong product profitability and cost control [5]. E-commerce Services - Revenue from in-store e-commerce services was 60 million in 2024, down 40.4% from 100 million in 2023, although the gross margin improved from 80.3% to 81.3% [7]. - The company optimized its charging model, ensuring that upfront revenue contributed 50% to in-store e-commerce income, which supports the profitability of each service project [7]. International Expansion - The company's overseas GPV transaction volume exceeded 1.1 billion in 2024, a nearly fivefold year-on-year increase, indicating strong market expansion capabilities [8]. - The company deepened its penetration into vertical markets, adding well-known brands such as Clinique, Bose, Leica, and Xiaomi to its client roster, enhancing business resilience [8]. - The company joined major payment networks like Visa, Mastercard, and UnionPay International, and established deep collaborations with banks such as Citibank, HSBC, and Barclays to improve global payment network coverage [8].

Business Overview - The company aims to continuously create value for merchants and consumers by building an independent and scalable commercial digitalized ecosystem[4] - The company focuses on one-stop payment services, merchant solutions, and in-store e-commerce services[12] - The penetration rate of self-operated takeaway mini-programs in 2020 was 0.8%[10] - The 2021 integrated payment penetration rate forecast is 29.6%[10] - The 2025E local lifestyle services online penetration rate is 30.8%[11] Operating Metrics - In-store E-commerce Services GMV in the first half of 2022 was greater than RMB 1,355.2 million, a year-over-year growth of 1,789.7%[16] - The company had 9.7 million paying consumers in the first half of 2022, a year-over-year growth of 578.9%[16] - The total GPV for one-stop payment services in the first half of 2022 was approximately RMB 1.06 trillion, a year-over-year growth of 7.4%[18] - The company had over 7.6 million active payment merchants in the first half of 2022, a year-over-year growth of 24.1%[18] Financial Highlights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2022 was RMB 1,641.8 million, a year-over-year growth of 17.1%[24] - Gross profit for the first half of 2022 was RMB 529.3 million, a year-over-year increase of 52.1%, with a GPM of 32.2%, a year-over-year increase of 7.4 percentage points[25] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2022 was RMB 69.7 million, a half-on-half growth of 39.7%[25] - In-store e-commerce services revenue was RMB 161.6 million, a year-over-year growth of 259.4%[22]

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这笔发行已经成功完成，并且得到了多家国际知名长线基金和多策略基金的参与，认购倍 数超数倍。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，移卡（9923.HK）于1月7日发布公告称，建议发行及配售1915万股股份，以向 外部投资者筹集资金，发展集团的海外及人工智能业务。 据 「IPO早知道」了解 ， 这 笔发行已经成功完成，并且得到了多家国际知名长线基金和多策略基 金的参与，认购倍数超数倍。 根据公告披露，此次认购款项净额约40%用于扩展集团于亚洲各业务分部的海外版图，40%用于投 资研发，包括在专有软件中使用人工智能，以加强集团商业数字化生态系统的竞争力，20%用于营 运资金及一般公司用途。 另外，移卡还通过旗下的富匙科技扩大了服务范围，共同推广数字商户解决方案， 截至目前，客户 包括星巴克、无印良品、必胜客、New Balance及Levi's、KOI、Mr.Coconut等200多个全球和区 域品牌客户，涵盖新加坡、印尼、越南及马来西亚等东南亚地区，门店数量超过20,000家。 值得注意的是，富匙科技透露即将于东南亚地区推出针对餐饮行业的AI ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's revenue decreased by 23.5% from RMB2.1 billion in H1 2023 to RMB1.6 billion in H1 2024 due to macroeconomic volatility impacting payment GPV [24] - Gross profit decreased to RMB300 million, but the overall gross profit margin increased from 17.7% in H1 2023 to 19% in H1 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of non-payment revenue [25][26] - Net profit in H1 2024 was RMB32.6 million, exceeding three times the annual net profit of RMB10.1 billion in 2023 [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from merchant solutions grew by 21.2% year on year in H1 2024, with gross profit margin increasing to 90.9% [15][26] - In-store e-commerce services saw gross profit margin rise from 76.9% in H1 2023 to 81.5% in H1 2024 [26] - The contribution ratio of non-payment business revenue to overall revenue increased from 11% in H1 2023 to 14.6% in H1 2024 [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - GPV in Singapore grew over 50% year on year, indicating strong overseas market performance [13][37] - The company maintained peak daily transaction counts at nearly 60 million, demonstrating robust transaction activity [11][33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be a comprehensive commerce enablement services provider, expanding beyond payments into other business lines and international markets [4][5] - Focus on higher quality and more profitable customers, with a strategic shift towards serving large and mid-sized merchants [12][36] - Continued integration of AI for revenue generation and cost optimization, enhancing service offerings and operational efficiency [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macroeconomic conditions in China have impacted consumption patterns, leading to a decrease in average transaction value [32] - The company remains confident in its market share and pricing power, with expectations for improved profitability in the second half of 2024 [33][36] - Regulatory changes are viewed positively, providing a healthier environment for capable service providers [51] Other Important Information - The company has been recognized for its ESG efforts, ranking first in its industry in China according to S&P Global's 2024 sustainability yearbook [8] - The company has reduced sales and administrative expenses by over 10% year on year, contributing to improved profitability [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of the microenvironment on payment business - Management acknowledged that macroeconomic volatility has affected consumption patterns, leading to a decrease in average transaction value, but transaction counts and fee rates remain stable [32][33] Question: Future strategy on loan book services - The company is focusing on higher quality and more profitable customers, phasing out less profitable ones, and increasing upfront fees to enhance project profitability [36] Question: Latest update on overseas business - Significant progress in overseas markets, with GPV in Singapore growing over 50% year on year and expansion of product offerings to meet local demands [37][39] Question: Fee rate trend and competition landscape - Fee rates are expected to remain stable in the low teens, with a competitive landscape favoring service providers offering comprehensive solutions [44][45] Question: Trend of regulation and impact on offline post payment business - Regulations are seen as beneficial for the industry, providing a healthier environment for capable service providers [51] Question: Midterm strategy for overseas payment business - The strategy focuses on leveraging existing products and experience in new regions, providing comprehensive services beyond just payment solutions [54] Question: Revenue and GMV contribution from overseas - The company is deriving revenue from various countries and sees significant growth opportunities in developed markets [60] Question: Employee reduction and operating costs - Employee reductions are largely due to AI implementation, which has improved customer service efficiency and reduced the need for manual labor [61][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue reached RMB 400 million in 2022, an increase of 11.8% year on year from RMB 359 million in 2021 [22] - Gross profit increased by 26.6% year on year to RMB 1.3 billion in 2022, with gross profit margin expanding from 26.6% to 30.2% [22][23] - Adjusted EBITDA rose 73% year on year to RMB 230 million in 2022, with significant half-on-half growth of 106% in the second half [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payment business GPV grew over 5% year on year to RMB 2.2 trillion, with app-based GPV increasing by 21% year on year [14][16] - In-store e-commerce GMV increased more than seven times to RMB 3.3 billion, with revenue rising 139% to over RMB 1 billion [17] - Merchant solutions gross profit margin improved from 57% in the first half to 75% in the second half of 2022 [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Active payment merchants increased to 8.1 million, with daily transactions exceeding 50 million [13] - The company maintained a leading position in the QR code payment industry, capturing over 30% market share [56] - The total GPV in January and February 2023 grew by 34.1% year on year, indicating a strong recovery in offline consumption [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to create value for merchants and expand its ecosystem by leveraging partnerships with local media platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [10][20] - A focus on profitability and operational efficiency is emphasized, particularly in the in-store e-commerce segment [19] - The company is exploring overseas markets and has obtained payment licenses in Singapore, Hong Kong, and the US [16][98] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of offline consumption and provided a full-year GPV guidance of RMB 2.7 trillion to RMB 2.9 trillion for 2023 [29] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on maintaining market share and profitability amidst increasing competition [96] - The company is optimistic about achieving breakeven in the in-store e-commerce business soon [67] Other Important Information - The company has developed over 10 functions based on AI-generated content (AIGC) to enhance operational efficiency [45] - ESG ratings were highlighted, with the company scoring an industry-leading 48 on the S&P Global ESG ratings [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can management share more about the offline consumption recovery trend? - Management noted significant recovery in Tier 1 cities, particularly in retail and restaurant sectors, with similar trends observed in March [28] Question: What is management's view on the competition landscape in the Douyin ecosystem? - Management acknowledged the complexity of the competitive landscape and emphasized a dual model strategy to address different city tiers [32][36] Question: Can management provide insights on the applications of AIGC in the merchant solutions business? - Management detailed three applications of AIGC, including content creation for marketing and customer service automation [48][50] Question: What are the growth drivers for payment GPV in 2023? - Management identified joint merchant acquiring services with banks and partnerships with SaaS providers as key growth drivers [80] Question: How does management view the competition between Douyin and Meituan? - Management believes the competition will not negatively impact their business model due to the different approaches of the platforms [84] Question: What is the outlook for the in-store e-commerce gross margin? - Management explained that gross margin improvements were driven by accounting policy changes and increased scale [90][92]