新大陆 20250818 摘要 新大陆海外 POS 机业务收入占比超 90%，主要受益于欧美、中东非、 拉美等市场智能 POS 机渗透率较低，增长空间巨大，成为公司硬件设备 业务的主要驱动力。 受益于收单行业竞争格局优化，头部企业议价权增强，费率从 2022 年 的千一出头提升至 2024 年的千一三至千一四，毛利率显著提升至接近 40%，新大陆支付业务的商户资源、交易量和盈利能力均得到明显改善。 新大陆积极布局跨境支付和海外收单市场，跨境支付费率高于传统收单， 并已获得美国 MSB 牌照，预计 2025 年下半年开始贡献流水；海外收单 市场交易量和费率均远高于国内，为公司带来显著的增量空间。 新大陆在 AI 领域专注于为商户提供定制化 AI 应用，如营销、广告和引 流的一站式解决方案，以及针对银行等合作机构的 AI 产品，通过 AI 技 术提升服务能力和客户粘性，并已在内部和设备端部署 AI 以降低合规成 本和优化设备性能。 网证网号市场硬件端替换空间巨大，总市场空间约 400 亿至 500 亿元， 新大陆作为二维码方案知识产权的共同拥有者和芯片独供方，预计占据 30%-35%的市场份额，未来几年每年有望新 ...

Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - Southeast Asia's e-commerce market is experiencing explosive growth, with annual sales projected to rise from $4 billion in 2012 to $184 billion by 2024 [1] - The region has a population of nearly 700 million, with a significant proportion of young consumers, and internet penetration rates exceeding 70% in most countries [2] - Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are leading in e-commerce consumption growth, with consumers favoring visually appealing and easily purchasable products [3] Group 2: Role of Chinese Companies - Chinese companies are increasingly collaborating with local e-commerce platforms to enhance shopping experiences and establish logistics and payment services [1][2] - The shift from "selling products" to "selling services" is evident as Chinese firms adapt to local market needs and preferences [1] - Chinese sellers leverage their supply chain advantages to become a dominant seller group on Southeast Asian e-commerce platforms [3] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Lazada is at the forefront of applying AI in Southeast Asia's e-commerce, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency through personalized recommendations [4] - The rise of live streaming and short videos as new consumer entry points is reshaping shopping behaviors in the region [5] - Approximately 75% of Southeast Asian consumers prefer products recommended by influencers, with TikTok being a primary channel for influencer marketing [6] Group 4: Infrastructure Development - The logistics landscape in Southeast Asia is evolving, with Chinese logistics companies establishing a presence to meet growing demand [8][9] - JD Logistics continues to focus on overseas warehouse services, significantly reducing shipping times for e-commerce [9] - Electronic payment adoption is increasing, with over 50% penetration in Southeast Asia, although cash transactions remain prevalent due to various barriers [10] Group 5: Payment Solutions - Companies like PingPong are addressing payment challenges in Southeast Asia by providing localized services and facilitating cross-border payments for e-commerce businesses [11] - The collaboration between Chinese payment service providers and local networks is enhancing payment infrastructure and efficiency in the region [11]

Summary of Cross-Border Payment Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cross-border payment market consists of B2C and B2B segments, with B2C primarily serving Chinese merchants on e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Shopee, and B2B targeting small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [1][2] - Major players in the B2C segment include LianLian Digital, PingPong Payments, and others, with a combined transaction volume nearing $150 billion [1][2] - XTransfer leads the B2B segment with an annual transaction volume of $30-40 billion, while other companies also report significant volumes [1][2] Market Growth and Opportunities - The cross-border payment market in China is projected to exceed 7.5 trillion RMB in transaction volume (TPV) by 2024, with an expected annual growth rate of over 25% from 2022 to 2027 [2] - The global B2B e-commerce trade is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 15%, while B2C is projected to grow at over 10% from 2022 to 2026 [4] - China's export volume is anticipated to approach 47 trillion RMB by 2027, with a growth rate exceeding 10% [4] Business Models and Fee Structures - B2C companies link payment services directly to e-commerce platforms, while B2B companies open virtual accounts for SMEs in foreign banks, earning revenue from exchange rate spreads [3] - The average fee rate in the industry is around 0.3%, which has stabilized after a decline from approximately 0.4% two to three years ago [3] Unique Value Proposition of Cross-Border Payment Providers - Cross-border payment service providers offer efficient, secure, and low-cost solutions for SMEs, addressing their challenges in obtaining bank support [5] - Traditional banks impose high costs and lengthy processes, making cross-border payment providers a more viable option for small enterprises [5] Current Trends and Future Directions - The market is rapidly evolving, with increasing demand from SMEs and cross-border e-commerce [6] - Cross-border payment providers are expected to expand their market size and opportunities as more SMEs enter international markets [6] Development of RMB Cross-Border Payment Systems - China is actively developing RMB-centric cross-border payment systems like CIPS to reduce reliance on the SWIFT system, enhancing efficiency and lowering costs [7] - Initiatives like the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" in Hong Kong facilitate real-time cross-border remittances, indicating a significant opportunity for RMB internationalization [7] Impact of Stablecoins on Cross-Border Payments - Stablecoins are set to revolutionize traditional cross-border payment models by enabling real-time settlements and significantly reducing costs [8] - Payment service providers must adapt to this new environment while continuing to offer essential services [8] Adjustments Needed by Payment Service Providers - Providers need to upgrade their technology to support new RMB settlement methods and stablecoin transactions, ensuring compliance and security [9] - They must continue to offer efficient, low-cost services to meet diverse client needs [9] Merchant Preferences in Payment Solutions - Merchants prioritize the convenience and integration of payment solutions over the specifics of the settlement process [10] - The potential reduction in fees due to stablecoin adoption could provide significant cost savings for merchants [10] Leading Companies in Cross-Border Payment - Notable companies in the cross-border payment sector include LianLian Digital, Newland, and Lakala, each with distinct business strategies and market positions [12][14][17] - LianLian Digital has obtained 65 global payment licenses, with a transaction volume of 3.3 trillion RMB, while Lakala's Skyee brand serves over 120,000 clients with a transaction volume of 49.2 billion RMB [14][17] Conclusion - The cross-border payment industry is poised for significant growth driven by e-commerce expansion, technological advancements, and evolving consumer preferences, presenting ample opportunities for established and emerging players alike [1][4][6]

Core Viewpoint - China Ruyi announced the acquisition of a 30% stake in Kuaiqian Financial for 240 million yuan, aiming to diversify its fintech business and leverage Kuaiqian's resources and technology for long-term growth opportunities [1][7]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition involves a cash payment of 240 million yuan, to be paid in three installments [1]. - After the transaction, China Ruyi will become the largest single shareholder of Kuaiqian Financial, but Kuaiqian will not become a subsidiary of China Ruyi [1]. - The valuation of Kuaiqian Financial at 800 million yuan represents a 76% decrease from the initial valuation of approximately 3.3 billion yuan when Wanda Group acquired it [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance of China Ruyi - In 2024, China Ruyi reported a revenue of 3.671 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company recorded a net loss of 207 million yuan, a shift from profit, primarily due to a fair value loss of 1.121 billion yuan related to contingent liabilities [2]. - Adjusted net profit was reported at 1.151 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 120% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Kuaiqian Financial's Background and Compliance Issues - Kuaiqian Financial was one of the first companies to receive a third-party payment license from the People's Bank of China in 2011, focusing on comprehensive payment solutions for medium and large enterprises [3]. - The company has faced multiple compliance issues, including receiving four fines from the central bank totaling over 17 million yuan since 2022 for violations of business management regulations [1][10]. - Kuaiqian has been implicated in providing payment channels for high-interest loan platforms, raising concerns about its compliance and operational integrity [14][16]. Group 4: Wanda Group's Financial Strategy and Challenges - Wanda Group initially viewed its financial sector as a key growth area, with aspirations for its market value to exceed that of its cultural and commercial sectors [5]. - However, the group has struggled with its financial transformation, leading to significant layoffs and a shift in its financial assets, including the planned sale of Kuaiqian [5][6]. - The financial sector's challenges have prompted Wanda to seek buyers for Kuaiqian multiple times, with previous offers failing to materialize [6][8].

Summary of the Conference Call for Lianlian Digital Company Overview - Lianlian Digital holds comprehensive payment licenses covering the US, Europe, and China, maintaining good relationships with regulatory bodies. It is the only Chinese company to obtain the VATP license and focuses on cross-border payments among the 11 holders of the VTB license in Hong Kong [2][4]. Core Industry Insights - Stablecoins are rapidly reshaping the global cross-border payment landscape, with the US accelerating stablecoin legislation and China aiming to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi through stablecoins. The global penetration rate of stablecoins is expected to rise quickly [2][5][6]. - Four key catalysts are identified to drive the development of stablecoins: 1. The implementation of the US Genius Act 2. The introduction of the stablecoin legislation in Hong Kong 3. The increasing demand for stablecoins due to the growth of Real World Assets (RWA) 4. Lianlian Digital's potential entry into the Hong Kong Stock Connect [2][7]. Financial Performance and Projections - Lianlian Digital's stock price has increased by 77%, reflecting only part of the market expectations. The stock is expected to see a rebound if it enters the Hong Kong Stock Connect, attracting additional capital [2][8]. - Revenue projections indicate that without contributions from Web3, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2027 will exceed 30%. Profit acceleration is anticipated in 2026-2027. Including Web3 contributions could push revenue growth above 50%, with gross margins increasing to 80%-90% [2][9]. Market Valuation - Based on a 10x valuation for the next year, Lianlian Digital's market capitalization could reach HKD 23.6 billion, corresponding to a target price of HKD 21.85, indicating a potential growth of 75% [2][9]. Risk Factors - Investors should be aware of several risk factors that could impact company performance and market outlook: 1. The potential delay or underperformance of US and Hong Kong legislation and license issuance 2. The slower-than-expected penetration of stablecoins in the cross-border payment sector 3. Possible tightening of policies regarding stablecoins in both the US and China [3][10]. Competitive Advantages - Lianlian Digital's core competitiveness in cross-border payments includes being one of the three major cross-border payment service providers in China, with 70% of its revenue derived from this sector. It possesses the most comprehensive traditional payment and clearing licenses and has strong relationships with regulatory authorities in the US and Europe [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading global cross-border payment service provider, uniquely holding the VATP license, and is expected to stand out in the wave of stablecoins disrupting the global cross-border payment landscape [1] - Stablecoins are rapidly reshaping the global cross-border payment system, driven by legislative advancements in the US and initiatives in China to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi [2][3] Summary by Sections Exceeding Expectations - Stablecoins are transforming the global cross-border payment system at an unprecedented speed and scale [2] - In the US, the new leadership is accelerating stablecoin legislation, prompting various stakeholders to expedite their involvement in stablecoin initiatives [2] - China aims to enhance the international influence of the Renminbi, with stablecoin implementation in cross-border payments being a key strategy [2] - Globally, countries are adopting diverse approaches to advance stablecoin payment scenarios, particularly in developing regions [2] Catalysts - The potential acceleration of the US "Genius Act" could enhance the development of USD stablecoins [3] - The Hong Kong stablecoin legislation is set to be implemented on August 1, with the first licenses expected to be issued within the year [3] - The increasing scale of Real World Assets (RWA) in Greater China is anticipated to drive demand for stablecoins [3] - The company's market capitalization has significantly increased, meeting the threshold for inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which may enhance its prospects [3] Price Performance Analysis - Since coverage began at the end of May, the company's stock price has increased by 77% [4] - The current stock price reflects only part of the expectations, as the stablecoin market is broad and lacks clear core beneficiaries [4] - The company may benefit from increased capital inflows if it enters the Hong Kong Stock Connect [4] - As the thematic market matures, focus will shift to fundamental performance and actual realization, concentrating funds on core beneficiaries [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Without considering the incremental contribution from stablecoins, the company's revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 30% from 2024 to 2027, with profit acceleration expected in 2026-2027 [5] - The current price corresponds to a PS ratio of 7.7x for this year and 5.7x for 2026, while global stablecoin-related companies are valued between 10-15x [5] - The target market capitalization is estimated at HK$23.6 billion, with a target price of HK$21.85, indicating a potential upside of 75.4% [11]

Group 1: China's Foreign Trade Performance - China's manufacturing exports show improvement, with electromechanical products increasing by 9.5% year-on-year, accounting for 60% of total exports [1] - High-end equipment related to new productivity rose over 20%, while "new three samples" products representing green and low-carbon growth increased by 12.7% [1] - The stable growth of China's foreign trade is supported by a complete industrial system and the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] Group 2: PingPong's Global Expansion - PingPong, a global payment platform, focuses on technology and business model innovation to meet the comprehensive needs of SMEs, tech companies, and financial institutions [2] - The company has facilitated cross-border transactions totaling approximately 2 trillion yuan, emphasizing compliance, risk control, and customer service as its sustainable development foundation [2] - PingPong has established compliance, risk control, and customer service teams globally, acquiring over 60 global licenses to provide secure cross-border payment services [2][3] Group 3: Risk Management and Customer Service - PingPong has intercepted fraud losses amounting to $1 billion, safeguarding nearly 2 trillion yuan in cross-border transaction funds [3] - The customer service team offers multilingual support across various regions, ensuring round-the-clock service capabilities [3] - The company is committed to investing in compliance, risk control, and customer service to support the global growth of enterprises [3]

Group 1 - The market appears to be rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3550 points, but individual investors may still be experiencing losses due to misaligned stock selections [1][3] - The current market trend shows that large-cap stocks, particularly in sectors like water, electricity, cement, and steel, are benefiting from government policies and substantial orders, while smaller stocks are lagging behind [3][4] - Investors are cautioned against holding onto stocks that lack government support, as well as against chasing high-priced stocks that are far from their moving averages [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for investors include focusing on stable dividend-paying stocks in sectors like water and nuclear power, while also exploring potential growth in emerging sectors like robotics and domestic computing [4] - Investors should avoid weak stocks without policy backing, refrain from chasing high-priced stocks, and be cautious of market trends following policy announcements [4] - The market dynamics suggest that those who understand and follow the rules set by government policies will be more successful, while those who do not may face losses [4]

Company Overview - Company has established a cross-border payment subsidiary, NovaPay, and obtained the US MSB license, laying the foundation for its cross-border payment business [1][2] - The MSB license allows the company to engage in various financial services, including currency exchange, remittances, and digital currency transactions, ensuring compliance for operations in the US [2] Investment Highlights - The company is a leader in the acquiring industry, with growth potential in overseas business, AI applications, and online verification services [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is maintained at 1.30 yuan, with revised forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 1.52 yuan and 1.86 yuan respectively [2] - The target price has been raised to 39.00 yuan, reflecting a 7% increase, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30 times for 2025 [2] Market Context - The cross-border payment market is experiencing significant growth due to the internationalization of the Renminbi and the increasing number of Chinese companies expanding overseas [3] - The 16th BRICS meeting emphasized the importance of local currency settlement and payment system development, supporting the global settlement of the Renminbi [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu is accelerating its development as a world cultural tourism city and an international consumption center, focusing on the deep integration of culture, commerce, tourism, and sports [3][23]. Group 1: Cultural and Tourism Development - Chengdu has been designated as a key player in building a "world-class cultural tourism destination" as per the Sichuan Provincial Committee's decisions [6]. - The city boasts a rich cultural heritage, with a history of over 4,500 years and a unique blend of local cultures such as tea culture, hot pot culture, and Sichuan opera [6][4]. - Chengdu aims to create a vibrant urban lifestyle that attracts global tourists by offering immersive experiences that combine history, present-day culture, and future aspirations [7][8]. Group 2: International Consumption Center - To establish itself as an international consumption center, Chengdu is enhancing its consumer environment to be more accessible and convenient for international visitors [11][13]. - The city has implemented a comprehensive plan to ensure 100% foreign language service coverage in key commercial areas by 2025, aiming for 90% coverage of foreign residents within a 15-minute living radius [13][14]. - Chengdu has introduced advanced payment systems, including 42,000 smart payment terminals supporting 40 languages, and has achieved 100% coverage of foreign card POS machines in major shopping districts [15][16]. Group 3: Youth Engagement and Global Sharing - Chengdu is increasingly appealing to the younger generation, with 45.87% of its population aged between 14 and 45, fostering a vibrant and dynamic urban atmosphere [20]. - The city is leveraging cultural innovation to promote local products globally, exemplified by the successful showcasing of traditional crafts at international events [18][19]. - The upcoming World Games in Chengdu will serve as a platform to further promote the city as a cultural tourism hub and an international consumption center [21][22].