研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2223 | 3 | 0.13% | 225,147 | -36.28% | 375,210 | -17.71% | | C2605 | | 2239 | 1 | 0.04% | 100,790 | 16.55% | 452,365 | 3.75% | | C2509 | | 2265 | 0 | 0.00% | 5,099 | -42.68% | 36,210 | -0.79% | | CS2601 | | 2512 | 10 | 0.40% | 72,404 | -21.31% | 129,585 | -6.55% | | CS2605 | ...

记者丨闫硕 编辑丨季媛媛 作为全产业链产值达261亿元、连续三年蝉联中国区域农业产业品牌影响力榜首的"明星产 业"，新会陈皮正遭遇一场信任危机。 12月14日晚，央视财经曝光广东江门新会陈皮市场重大乱象： 广西浦北有企业用"轻工艺"1个 月制成"工艺皮"，以约70元/斤成本冒充新会陈皮，虚标三年、五年甚至十年年份，售价最高 达1000元/斤，利润超十倍 ；部分广东新会商家从广西浦北采购"工艺皮"， 通过倒卖地理标志 资质、乱贴"新会陈皮"标签造假 ，也有企业用椪柑皮冒充茶枝柑皮，行业标准形同虚设，亟 待监管整治。 据央视财经，直播间有主播爆料，八成市面所谓广东新会陈皮实为广西陈皮。 12月15日凌晨1时，广西钦州市浦北县市场监督管理局发布情况通报：浦北县委、县政府成立 由县市场监督管理局牵头的联合调查组，对报道涉及的经营主体开展全面调查，并已采取封存 相关物品、固定证据等措施。下一步将根据调查结果严格依法作出处理。 江门市委、市政府也成立以市政府牵头的联合执法工作组，兵分六路，连夜奔赴涉案的6家生 产经营主体开展专项查处行动。目前，已依法对涉案主体的相关产品采取查封等措施，对涉嫌 违法的经营行为立案调查，后续 ...

粮油市场报 进入12月中旬以来，国内花生市场行情呈现稳中趋弱调整态势，市场需求持续疲软，购销主体普遍持观 望态度，导致市场价格重心下移。虽然近期鲁花部分油厂入市收购，在一定程度上提振了市场信心，但 由于整体收购量有限，且收购指标较为苛刻，市场提振作用不及预期。 供强需弱难改 油厂表现不佳 调查显示，目前山东统货花生米收购价为7000~7200元/吨，周环比下调200元/吨，同比下调750元/吨； 河南白沙米收购价7000~7200元/吨，周环比下调100元/吨，同比下调1350元/吨；湖北市场白沙米报价 9000~9600元/吨，周环比和同比变化均不大；辽宁市场308白沙统货米报价9400~9700元/吨，周环比下 调100元/吨。 近期油厂收购量有限，且对质量把控严格，部分油厂继续下调花生收购报价，成交普遍以质论价。目 前，山东莱阳鲁花油厂合同报价为7600元/吨，河北深州鲁花油厂合同报价7600元/吨，山东莒南玉皇油 厂油料米合同报价7350元/吨，山东莒南兴泉油厂油料米合同价格7000元/吨，周环比变化均不大；河南 正阳鲁花和山东定陶鲁花油厂入市收购，合同报价均为7600元/吨；山东费县中粮油厂油料米合 ...

（来源：中国油脂） 来源：中国油脂 海外市场方面，巴西大豆主产区降雨充沛，进一步夯实新季大豆丰产预期；与此同时，美豆销售进度明 显滞后，出口窗口收窄，带动CBOT大豆价格持续下行，大豆进口成本随之下降。国内市场方面，进口 大豆供应压力凸显，2025年1—11月我国大豆进口量已突破1亿吨，油厂维持高开工率，国内豆油库存持 续高位运行。综合来看，豆油价格中短期内大概率延续承压态势。 新季巴西大豆预估丰产 新季巴西大豆播种已接近尾声。据巴西国家商品供应公司作物进展报告，截至12月13日，巴西大豆播种 进度达94.1%，虽略低于去年同期的96.8%，但显著快于近5年均值90.6%。其中，马托格罗索州、南马 托格罗索州和帕拉纳州等主产州已完成全部播种工作。市场预计，2025/2026年度巴西大豆产量将达到 1.77亿吨的历史新高，同比增长3.3%。 值得关注的是，近两周巴西几乎所有大豆产区均迎来有效降雨。气象机构预计未来两周当地降雨量依旧 丰沛，且气温保持凉爽，整体气象条件十分利于大豆苗期生长。结合当前播种进度与天气形势，新季巴 西大豆冲击产量纪录的可能性进一步提升。 阿根廷方面，大豆播种进度正加快推进。据BAGE作物 ...

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日农产品加工板块主力资金净流出9197.78万元，游资资金净流入661.54万元，散 户资金净流入8536.24万元。农产品加工板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，12月17日农产品加工板块较上一交易日下跌0.08%，京粮控股领跌。当日上证指数报收 于3870.28，上涨1.19%。深证成指报收于13224.51，上涨2.4%。农产品加工板块个股涨跌见下表： ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 8915 | -50 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 124292 | 4529 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -9865 | -1309 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 982 | 99 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1145 | 11 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6.5 | 0 河北一级 ...

项目组相关负责人表示，下一步将继续推动更多关键检测方法、分级指标和防控措施进入国际标准化组 织(ISO)、国际食品法典委员会(Codex)、国际植物保护公约(IPPC)等国际标准体系，进一步完善"从实验 室到贸易端"的全链条质量保障体系，为全球农食产品质量治理贡献更多中国智慧和中国方案。 在质量分级体系方面，项目组主导发布全球首个红枣品质国际标准ISO6900:2025《干制红枣—规格和测 试方法》，建立跨时空外观质量数据库，构建感官—理化—污染物—验证一体化评价框架。标准实施成 效显著，数据显示，2024年我国红枣出口量达3.56万吨，同比增长26.74%，出口合格率提升至98.7%， 平均单价增长12.5%，有效增强了我国红枣产品的国际市场竞争力与认可度。 中国经济网北京12月17日讯(记者鞠然)记者从市场监管总局科技与信息化司获悉，由市场监管总局组 织，中国质量检验检测科学研究院牵头研制的农食产品质量控制与分级国际标准取得新进展。截至目 前，相关标准已成功立项17项、发布8项，覆盖质量检验、果蔬分级、生物安全等关键领域。 在农食产品质量控制关键技术突破方面，科研团队实现谷物镉含量和黄曲霉毒素检验、植物油 ...

今年以来，新沂市草桥镇锚定乡村振兴总要求，以环境提升筑牢发展基础、以产业为核激活增收动能、 以文化为本传递温暖关怀，将"实干"二字深植发展脉络，着力打造宜游、宜居、宜业的和美乡村。 基础设施升级，筑牢宜居根基。走进草桥镇林庄村和苗圩村，和美乡村项目正在忙碌施工中，原本狭窄 的道路如今宽敞平整。道路两侧，工人们正在对绿化带地砖进行铺设，预计12月底竣工，后期将重点实 施空间整治与村庄绿化美化等项目。今年以来，依托和美乡村建设，草桥镇聚焦群众生产生活痛点，持 续加大投入力度，大力推进乡村道路改造提升工程，部分区域加装了主路灯、景观灯，保障夜间出行安 全。同时，污水管道铺设工程也已完工，切实解决了辖区排水不畅和水质污染等问题；基础设施建设加 强，公园、垂钓中心等功能区域逐步完善。此次改造突出了红色文化，注重以文化人、以德育人，充分 利用废旧砖瓦、石磨等老物件，营造浓厚的乡土特色氛围。同时，配备专业清运队伍，建立"户分类、 村收集、镇转运"的垃圾处理体系，实现垃圾日产日清；推进农村厕所革命，优化卫生厕所改造工艺， 完善后续管护机制，切实改善农村卫生条件，让村民生活更便捷、更舒心。 乡村振兴，产业发展是关键。草桥镇围绕 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector. [17][24][56] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After a significant decline, there may be a technical rebound, but the rebound without news support may have limited height. The trading strategy is to adopt a high - selling and low - buying approach in a volatile market, wait for the spread of the discount to widen for the IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying option strategy. [20][21] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Different maturities show differentiated performance. In the short term, it is difficult to determine whether the bond market will turn bearish. The trading strategy is to stop the short positions of TS and TF contracts at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage. [22][23] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: With large supply pressure from new crops, the price of US soybeans continues to decline. The international soybean market is in a pattern of abundant supply. The trading strategy is to wait and see, narrow the MRM spread, and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [25][26] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, and domestic sugar prices are weak. The Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease, and the international sugar price may bottom - out and oscillate. The domestic sugar market may still maintain a weak trend in the short term. The trading strategy is to go long on the January contract and short on the May contract, and wait and see for options. [28][32] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The overall trend is weakly oscillating. The trading strategy is to buy on dips after the price stops falling and stabilizes, and conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [34][35] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 contract on dips and establish long positions on the 07 contract at low prices, and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [37][38] - **Hogs**: The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to adopt a short - selling strategy, and wait and see for arbitrage and sell the wide - straddle option strategy. [39][40] - **Peanuts**: The spot price has declined, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract lightly at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option. [41][43] - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy is to go long on the far - month contracts at low prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [44][46] - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The trading strategy is to wait and see, go long on the January contract and short on the October contract, and wait and see for options. [48][50] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the price is oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [52][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw materials have stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price is oscillating. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in a range and may rebound from the bottom in the short term, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread at high prices, and wait and see for options. [57][58] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are oscillating at the bottom. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the current situation has priced in most of the negative factors, and pay attention to the change of trading logic. [60][61] - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach. The current supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to run weakly at a high level. [62][65] - **Ferroalloys**: The cost is supported, but the demand is suppressed. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money straddle option combination. [66][67] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US employment market is cooling down, but under the situation of multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy the out - of - the - money call option. [69][72] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The non - farm payroll data is lower than expected, and they are oscillating strongly. The trading strategy is to go long on platinum and palladium at low prices, and consider the long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage. [74][76] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The US employment data shows that the labor market is cooling down, and the copper price is expected to rise in the long term. [77][80] - **Alumina**: Be vigilant against the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The fundamental situation is still under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [80][83] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook, and the price is oscillating with a reduction in positions. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate after a correction, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: There is uncertainty in the macro - economic outlook this week. The trading strategy is to oscillate with the decline of the aluminum price, conduct the AD - AL spread convergence arbitrage during the decline of the aluminum price, and wait and see for options. [87][88] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the magnitude of overseas warehouse delivery. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the overseas delivery has put pressure on the price, and consider the long - domestic and short - overseas strategy when the export window may open intermittently. [89][92] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the change of inventory. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the short positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [93][96] - **Nickel**: As a short - position variety, it continues to decline. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [97][98] - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the decline of the nickel price and oscillates weakly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to decline oscillatingly, and wait and see for arbitrage. [100][101] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [102][103] - **Polysilicon**: Buy on dips. The trading strategy is to hold long positions and buy on dips, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell the put option. [104][104] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The impact of the mining license is limited, and pay attention to the inventory data. The trading strategy is to operate cautiously at a high level, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the 2605 contract when the price rises. [105][107] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the export data of Myanmar in November and be vigilant against the change of macro - economic sentiment, and wait and see for options. [108][111] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK tested the price of 2800 in the first week. The trading strategy is to partially stop the profit of the long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest, and wait and see for arbitrage. [112][114] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is close to the annual low, and the geopolitical factor is still the focus. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil price spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [116][117] - **Bitumen**: The oil price has dropped significantly, and there are still concerns about the raw materials. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate and stabilize, and sell the out - of - the - money call option of the BU2602 contract. [119][121] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is frequently disturbed by the change of devices. The trading strategy is to be bearish, the low - sulfur cracking spread is weak, the high - sulfur cracking spread is weak, and wait and see for options. [121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The downward trend of LNG remains unchanged, and HH continues to correct. The trading strategy is to buy the HH2602 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the TTF call option. [124][126] - **LPG**: It is slightly stronger than oil. The trading strategy is to short the 03 contract at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [127][128] - **PX and PTA**: The PX operating rate remains high, and there is still an expectation of PTA inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, conduct the reverse arbitrage for the PX3, 5 & PTA1, 5 contracts, and wait and see for options. [130][131] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The supply and demand of pure benzene are loose, and the basis of styrene is loosening. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [133][134] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some enterprises have reduced the operating load, and the price has rebounded slightly. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [136][137] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price has declined. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [138][140] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply and demand are relatively loose. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money call option. [141][142] - **Propylene**: The operating rate is rising, and the inventory is at a high level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the call option. [143][144] - **Plastic PP**: The electricity consumption of the rubber and plastic industry has decreased slightly month - on - month. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the L main 2605 contract and try to go long on the PP main 2605 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [146][148] - **Caustic Soda**: It shows an oscillating trend. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [149][151] - **PVC**: It rebounds from the bottom. The trading strategy is to expect the price to rebound from the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [152][153] - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates after the contract roll - over. The trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term price is expected to be stable. [155][159] - **Glass**: The price oscillates. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [157][160] - **Methanol**: It oscillates widely. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [162][163] - **Urea**: India has tendered again. The trading strategy is to expect the price to oscillate in the short term and run weakly in the medium term, and wait and see for options. [165][166] - **Pulp**: The reality is weak, but the expectation is strong. Pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts and the change of port inventory. The trading strategy is to hold the previous short positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [169][170] - **Logs**: The fundamental situation is weakening, the futures price is inverted, and pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 03 contract, gradually stop the profit of the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [171][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remains high, and the transmission of high pulp price is less than expected. The trading strategy is to be bearish, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option. [176][178] - **Natural Rubber**: The accumulation of the main visible inventory has slowed down. The trading strategy is to try to short the RU main 05 contract lightly and hold long positions for the NR main 02 contract, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options. [179][182] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The fixed - asset investment in the domestic rubber and plastic industry continues to slow down. The trading strategy is to hold long positions for the BR main 02 contract, hold the BR2602 - NR2602 spread, and wait and see for options. [183][185]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.9 million tons of soybean oil, with soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil ending inventories of 1,126 tons, 2.51 million tons, and 0.49 million tons respectively [1] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 2.55%, and oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% [1] - The expected sown area of winter rapeseed in France for the 2026/27 season will reach 1.34 million hectares, a three - year high, with a year - on - year increase of 6.4% and a 9.4% increase compared to the average of last year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - In October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, with 3.36 million tons of soybean meal and 0.9 million tons of soybean oil produced, and the ending inventories of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 1,126 tons, 2.51 million tons, and 0.49 million tons respectively [1] - From December 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 2.55%, and oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08% [1] - The expected sown area of winter rapeseed in France for the 2026/27 season will reach 1.34 million hectares, a three - year high, increasing by 6.4% year - on - year and 9.4% compared to the average of last year [1] Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from December 10 - 16, 2025 are presented in a table [2] Protein Meal Basis - No information provided [3] Oil and Fat Futures Spread - No information provided [6] Oil and Fat Basis - No information provided [8]