周度报告—碳酸锂 资金预期高昂，下游产业利润承压 [Table_Summary] ★资金预期高昂，下游产业利润承压 有 色 金 属 矿端消息不断，矿盐价格走势一致，相互支撑上移。锂盐端，1 月底至 2 月部分锂盐厂有年度检修计划，但受锂价攀升、需求旺 盛影响，检修亦有调整的可能。本周碳酸锂产量环比-388 吨，样 本总库存环比-783 吨。需求端淡季不淡的特征边际走强。虽然本 周盘面大幅上涨后，下游成交情况较上周明显走弱，但受刚需补 库限制，下游材料厂维持逢低补库。考虑到下游原料库存天数仍 旧较低（9.6 天），预计春节备库需求仍存。碳酸锂价格上涨至 此，核心问题仍在于价格的向下传导。我们测算以当前磷酸铁锂 电芯平均价格水平来看，二梯队企业对碳酸锂价格的承受水平约 在 15.6 万元左右。而对终端新能源汽车整车企业而言，由于铜 铝等其他原材料成本亦在上涨，因此若碳酸锂价格继续上涨至 20 万，则或导致头部新能源整车企业也无净利润。对于储能而 言，地区差异较大，内蒙等高收益率省份（IRR 10%以上）对储 能电芯价格不敏感，但部分省份容量补贴不高、套利价差较低， 本身 IRR 仅 7-8%，若电芯价格上涨 0. ...

盛新锂能公告称，公司股票于2026年1月21日至1月23日连续三个交易日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超 20%，属异常波动。经核查，公司未发现前期披露信息需更正补充，未现可能影响股价重大信息，生产 经营正常。公司正筹划向特定对象发行A股股票，已获董事会和股东大会通过，但需交易所审核及证监 会注册。期间控股股东、实际控制人未买卖公司股票。 ...

盛新锂能发布异动公告，公司股票于2026年1月21日、1月22日、1月23日连续三个交易日收盘价格涨幅 偏离值累计超过20%，属于股票交易异常波动情况。经核查，公司前期披露信息无需更正补充，近期无 影响股价的未公开重大信息，生产经营正常；目前筹划向特定对象发行A股股票事项，已通过董事会和 股东大会审议，尚需深圳 证券交易所审核通过并经中国证监会同意注册后方可实施。异常波动期间， 控股股东、实际控制人未买卖公司股票。声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据 生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 ...

截至2026年1月23日当周，碳酸锂期货主力合约收于181520元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周增持 22595手。 本周(1月19日-1月23日)市场上看，碳酸锂期货周内开盘报147600元/吨，最高触及182000元/吨，最低下 探至142200元/吨，周度涨跌幅达18.55%。 消息面回顾： 1月23日，优质碳酸锂市场价格区间在166800-172500元/吨，行情较上一个工作日上调2950元，电池级 碳酸锂市场价格区间在165500-172500元/吨，行情较上一个工作日上调2900元，工业级碳酸锂市场价格 区间在163000-169500元/吨，行情较上一个工作日上调3000元。 广期所公告，新增天齐锂业（002466）股份有限公司"天齐锂业"牌为碳酸锂期货注册品牌，新增的注册 品牌自2026年2月2日起启用。 截至本周SMM数据，碳酸锂周度总库存小幅减少，周环比降0.71%(-783吨)至约10.89万吨。 机构观点汇总： 中泰期货：需求表现向好，供给端扰动再起，市场情绪再升温，在持续去库的状态下，短期碳酸锂以偏 强震荡运行为主，注意大幅波动风险。 冠通期货：近两日市场消息传言宁德时代（3007 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is attributed to a combination of domestic supply contraction expectations and positive demand trends [2][3]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Concerns over supply contraction are heightened due to stricter regulations and potential production halts in the Jiangxi region, which is a key lithium production area [2]. - Current lithium carbonate weekly production is approximately 22,200 tons, a decrease of 388 tons from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing, with a weekly inventory of about 108,900 tons, down 783 tons from the previous week, suggesting strong demand despite the supply constraints [4]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The continuation of subsidies for new energy vehicles has improved market expectations, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announcing policies that maintain previous subsidy levels for heavy trucks and buses [3]. - Strong orders in the energy storage sector, combined with adjustments to export tax rebates for battery products, are expected to support the lithium carbonate market in the early months of the year [3]. - Downstream demand remains robust, with no significant signs of weakness during the traditional "off-season," as indicated by the current low inventory levels [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - There is a growing divergence in market sentiment, with downstream companies showing limited acceptance of high prices and a cautious approach to purchasing [5]. - The current high prices are seen as a double-edged sword, potentially stimulating the re-entry of previously halted production capacities into the market [5]. - The rising prices of lithium carbonate are expected to impact demand, particularly in the energy storage sector, where costs are more sensitive to price changes [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is entering a phase of "weak expectations" versus "strong expectations," with the current price levels stimulating supply increases while demand needs to be closely monitored [7]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term demand may support prices, the sustainability of this demand and the potential for price stabilization remain uncertain [7]. - The focus will be on the actual realization of demand and the potential for systemic price corrections as the market adjusts to high price levels [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up, with the Wenhua Industrial Products Index rising by 2.69%. Lithium carbonate has rebounded continuously, breaking through last week's high. Currently, the "rush to export" of batteries supports the off - season demand. The domestic production of lithium salt plants has reached a short - term high after maintenance, and the SMM domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to decline. In the short term, there are many disturbances in the mining end, and the supply uncertainty is strong. The overall commodity market fluctuates greatly. The rapid rise of lithium prices hides the risk of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. Attention should be paid to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream purchasing willingness, and changes in the position on the disk [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - On January 23, the evening quotation of the Five - Mineral Steel Union Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 174,830 yuan, with a weekly increase of 8.16%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 175,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 181,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 7.55% [12]. - On January 22, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 22,217 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. In 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In December 2025, Chile exported 11,704 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [12]. - From January 1 - 18, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16% compared with the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. From January 1 - 18, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23% compared with the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23%. The first quarter is a critical window period for "rush to export" of batteries, and the off - season demand is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [12]. - On January 22, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 108,896 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 783 tons (-0.7%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 27.8 days. On January 23, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,886 tons, a weekly increase of 6.2% [12]. - The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 23, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,400 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 9.11%. In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines is significantly supplemented [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On January 23, the evening quotation of the Five - Mineral Steel Union Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 174,830 yuan, with a weekly increase of 8.16%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 175,250 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2605 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 181,520 yuan, with a weekly increase of 7.55% [20]. - The average discount price in the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is - 1,000 yuan (referring to the main contract LC2605). The net short position of the main seats of the lithium carbonate contract has increased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 10,000 yuan [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - On January 22, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 22,217 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. In December 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 42.4%. The annual output increased by 43.6% year - on - year [31]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 60,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4% and a year - on - year increase of 48.7%. The annual output increased by 70.3% year - on - year. In December, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 13,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and an annual increase of 17.4% year - on - year [34]. - In December, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 3.1% month - on - month to 14,990 tons, with an annual increase of 15.1% year - on - year. In December, the output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 10,010 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% and an annual increase of 27.3% year - on - year [37]. - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. In 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 243,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In December 2025, Chile exported 11,704.02 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 20.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - The battery field dominates the lithium demand. In 2024, the global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the proportion of traditional application fields is limited and the growth is weak. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powders, air conditioners, and medicine is only 5% [44]. - From January 1 - 18, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16% compared with the same period in January last year and a 52% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 312,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. From January 1 - 18, the wholesale volume of new - energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23% compared with the same period in January last year and a 46% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 348,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [47]. - In 2025, about 3.77 million new - energy vehicles were sold in Europe, a year - on - year increase of 30.5%. In 2025, about 1.6 million new - energy vehicles were sold in the United States, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [50]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in December, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. From January to December, the cumulative output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 1,755.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 60.1%. In December, the domestic power - battery loading volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic power - battery loading volume was 769.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.4% [53]. - In 2025, the domestic output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 58.8% year - on - year, and the domestic output of ternary materials increased by 23.5% year - on - year. The first quarter is a critical window period for "rush to export" of batteries, and the off - season demand is expected to increase. The decline in material production scheduling is narrower than previously expected [56]. 3.5 Inventory - On January 22, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 108,896 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 783 tons (-0.7%). The inventory days of lithium carbonate were about 27.8 days. On January 23, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 28,886 tons, a weekly increase of 6.2% [63]. - Driven by the "rush to export" demand, the inventory of cathode materials has decreased. The inventories of power batteries and energy - storage batteries are at a low level in recent years [66]. 3.6 Cost Side - The change in lithium salt prices is transmitted upstream. On January 23, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 2,150 - 2,400 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 9.11% [73]. - In December, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. In 2025, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 6.209 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. In 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the import of lithium concentrate from Africa increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The supply of high - cost hard - rock mines is accelerating, and the import of lithium mines is significantly supplemented [76].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector in the U.S. saw a majority of stocks rise, with Sigma Lithium experiencing a significant increase of over 15% following positive operational updates and sales announcements [1] Group 1: Company Updates - Sigma Lithium has sold an additional 100,000 tons of high-purity lithium powder, with sales prices based on a market pricing mechanism tied to the Shanghai Metals Market index, equating to an adjusted final net price of $140 per ton for lithium oxide content [1] - The company confirmed that its mining operations are progressing as planned and are expected to resume by the end of the month, countering recent media reports of an "operational ban" [1] - Sigma Lithium strongly denied claims from certain media outlets regarding being ordered to cease operations by Brazil's Ministry of Labor and Employment, clarifying that such reports misrepresented the nature of a routine administrative procedure [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcements, shares of Sigma Lithium rose over 15%, while other lithium stocks such as SQM and Lithium Americas also saw slight increases, indicating positive market sentiment towards the lithium sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of lithium mining stocks in the US market on January 23, with significant gains observed in several companies [1] Group 2 - Sigma Lithium experienced an increase of over 17% in its stock price [1] - Lithium Americas saw its stock rise by more than 4% [1] - Chilean mining and chemical companies reported a nearly 1% increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector in the U.S. saw a majority of stocks rise, with Sigma Lithium reporting significant sales and clarifying operational status amid recent media speculation [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Sigma Lithium announced the sale of an additional 100,000 tons of high-purity lithium powder, with sales prices based on the Shanghai Metal Market index, translating to an adjusted net price of $140 per ton for lithium oxide [1] - The company confirmed that its mining operations are progressing as planned and are expected to resume by the end of the month [1] Group 2: Operational Clarification - Sigma Lithium strongly denied recent media reports claiming it faced an "operational ban" from Brazil's Ministry of Labor and Employment, clarifying that such reports misrepresented a routine administrative procedure [1] - The company emphasized that its mining resumption timeline aligns with its established plans, and that sales and operational activities are continuing normally [1]

证券日报网讯 1月23日，天齐锂业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月20日，公司A股股 东户数为284897户，公司A股股东中机构股东户数为3883户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...