【市场复盘】 8月11日，港股三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.19%，报24906.81点；恒生科技指数跌 0.01%，报5460.02点；国企指数跌0.08%，报8888.08点。盘面上，有色、医药行业表现活跃，新消费行 业普跌。热点个股方面，哔哩哔哩涨近2.5%，阿里巴巴涨近2%，华虹跌超3.5%，美团跌近1.5%，小米 集团跌近1%。热点ETF方面，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）小幅收涨。 【南向资金】 8月11日，南向资金净流入港股0.38亿港元；截至8月11日，今年以来南向资金累计净流入9008.38亿港 元，大幅超过去年全年净流入额。 【隔夜美股】 隔夜美股三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.45%，标普500指数跌0.25%，纳指跌0.3%。赛富时跌超3%，IBM 跌逾2%，领跌道指。美国科技七巨头指数跌0.22%，苹果跌0.83%，亚马逊跌0.62%。中概股多数下 跌，联掌门户跌超20%，新蛋跌近12%。恒生指数ADR下跌，按比例计算，收报24793.53点，较香港收 市跌113.28点或0.45%。 【热点消息】 1、8月11日，宁德时代（300750）旗下锂矿停产引爆市场，碳酸锂期货 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have risen to 93.6%, indicating a potential liquidity bull market globally [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant miss with only 73,000 jobs added, and prior months' data was revised down by 258,000, marking the largest revision since June 2020 [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a peak of 3656 points, with a strong expectation to break through the resistance level of 3674 points [3] - The current market sentiment remains bullish, with no strong signals to turn bearish unless clear signs of a downturn appear [3] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a significant rally, particularly in sectors such as lithium mining, lithium extraction from salt lakes, rare metals, and lithium batteries [5] - Major lithium companies, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, saw their stocks hit the daily limit due to strong market interest driven by the new energy sector [6] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 3650 points, while the ChiNext Index approached 2400 points, indicating a broad market rebound with over 4200 stocks rising [8] - The market's trading volume reached 1.14 trillion, a healthy increase compared to the previous week, suggesting a structural market opportunity [8] - The focus remains on identifying opportunities in core technology stocks and brokerage shares, as the market aims to challenge last October's high of 3674 points [8]

Market Overview - On August 11, Hong Kong's three major indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.19% to 24,906.81 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.01% to 5,460.02 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreased by 0.08% to 8,888.08 points [1] - The market saw active performance in the metals and pharmaceuticals sectors, while the new consumption sector experienced widespread declines [1] - Notable individual stock movements included Bilibili rising nearly 2.5%, Alibaba increasing by nearly 2%, and declines in Huahong, Meituan, and Xiaomi [1] Southbound Capital - On August 11, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 0.38 million HKD into Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net inflow of 900.84 billion HKD year-to-date, significantly surpassing the total net inflow for the entire previous year [1][2] Overnight US Market - The US stock market saw slight declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.45%, the S&P 500 down by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.3% [1] - Major tech stocks such as Apple and Amazon also experienced declines, with Apple down by 0.83% and Amazon by 0.62% [1] Lithium Market Dynamics - On August 11, the suspension of lithium mining operations by CATL triggered a market surge, with all futures contracts for lithium carbonate hitting the upper limit, leading to significant increases in domestic lithium carbonate spot prices and lithium mining stocks [2] - Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares saw an intraday increase of over 22% [2] Automotive Industry Performance - In July, China's automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7% [2] - New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, with year-on-year growth of 26.3% and 27.4% [2] - Exports of new energy vehicles totaled 225,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 120% [2] Investment Trends - The Chinese stock market has seen increased trading activity, with significant inflows into thematic ETFs and a notable recovery in the issuance of actively managed equity funds since July [2] - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks have exceeded 900 billion HKD this year, setting a historical record [2] Short Selling Data - On August 11, a total of 636 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with a total short-selling amount of 22.138 billion HKD [3] - The top three stocks by short-selling amount were Meituan, Xiaomi Group, and Tencent Holdings, with short-selling amounts of 1.136 billion HKD, 1.04 billion HKD, and 1.007 billion HKD, respectively [3] Institutional Insights - According to recent market strategies from China Merchants Securities, the Hong Kong stock market may enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a focus on potential rebound opportunities in tech stocks [4] - The long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains bullish due to factors such as the economic cycle being at a low point, supportive monetary policies, ample liquidity, and low valuations [4] - The upcoming earnings disclosures from leading tech companies in mid-August may serve as a catalyst for a new wave of tech market activity [4]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.01%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.06% [1][4]. Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures saw a significant drop, with the main contract's increase narrowing to nearly 4% after initially rising close to 10% at the opening [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures at 09:30 was reported at 84,100, with a decrease of 3,200 (3.96%) from the previous session [3]. A-shares Performance - A-shares opened higher, with the Xinjiang sector remaining active, particularly in wind power and vaccine concepts, while cyclical stocks generally retreated [4]. - The overall A-share market showed 2,118 stocks rising, 1,162 unchanged, and 2,137 declining [5]. Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index opened lower, down 0.33%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 0.59%. Major tech stocks like Alibaba and Baidu dropped over 1% [6][7]. - Lithium mining stocks continued to rise, while pharmaceutical stocks remained active, with Fosun Pharma increasing by over 7% [6]. Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 114.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 160.7 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [8].

中美同意再暂停实施24%关税90天。A股三大指数小幅高开，沪指涨0.01%。深证成指涨0.01%，创业板 指涨0.06%。盘面上，地产股继续活跃，沙河股份、万通发展（维权）涨停；养殖业板块盘初拉升，晓 鸣股份、民和股份涨超6%；锂矿股回调，永杉锂业跌超5%，赣锋锂业跌超2%；稀土永磁概念低开，中 矿资源跌超5%，久吾高科跌超3%。(格隆汇) MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

凤凰网财经讯 8月12日，A股三大指数开盘集体上涨，沪指涨0.01%，深成指涨0.01%，创业板指涨 0.06%。深圳国资、算力芯片、激光产业等板块指数涨幅居前。 中国银河证券：锂矿供应收缩 锂盐价格有进一步走高的可能 中国银河证券指出，宁德时代枧下窝陶瓷土（含锂）矿采矿证于8月9日到期，按照7月1日续办采矿证涉 及矿种变更储量核实的情况下，预计枧下窝矿或将停产较长时间。枧下窝陶瓷土矿碳酸锂月产量1万吨 LCE左右，枧下窝矿的停产将影响国内碳酸锂产量近12%，锂盐行业供应过剩的格局将得到改善。而宜 春市自然资源局发布通知要求8家涉锂矿山企业于9月30日前完成矿种变更储量核实报告编制，在枧下窝 陶瓷土矿停产后，市场对于其他7家锂云母矿的停产预期或将提升，带来更强烈的锂供应收缩预期。锂 矿供应端的扰动，叠加行业高质量发展与"反内卷"政策的催化，锂盐价格有进一步走高的可能。 国金证券：高质量数据将是拉开化工企业AI布局的关键 国金证券指出，AI垂类应用正加速向化工全链条渗透：设备端聚焦"AI+机器人"高危巡检；研发端看 好"AI+自动化实验"驱动的分子发现及工艺优化；产品端关注AI辅助配方升级与新材料迭代。人工智能 ...

华泰证券发布港股策略研报称，近期港股回调主因内外预期修正，但中期流动性宽松逻辑不改。配置上 建议寻找景气改善+低估值板块，尤其强调对科技板块的配置；短期交易围绕中报业绩展开，建议关 注：1)估值有性价比且景气改善的游戏和互联网电商龙头；2)前向12个月估值分位数略高但盈利兑现度 高，如港股创新药及非银金融。 浙商证券认为，建议坚持当前中线仓位。行业配置方面，继续采取"1+1+X"均衡配置，但需要注意积极 挖掘年线上方低位个股，做好板块内"高低切"操作。 国泰海通证券发布研报称，展望下半年，港股有望继续延续牛市走势，增量资金继续流入和资产结构性 优势是两大驱动因素。流动性影响因素上，资金流出项与流入项都需要关注。从港股资金流出项看，综 合IPO和再融资视角，年内后续融资规模或近3000亿港元；减持方面，港股二季度解禁高峰已过，整体 减持压力趋缓，但高估值且解禁集中的新消费或存解禁压力。资金流入方面，该行指出，港股全年南向 增量供给望超1.2万亿，外资有望边际改善，为港股资金蓄水池提供源源活水。 恒生指数低开0.33%，恒生科技指数跌0.59%。盘面上，医药股活跃，复星医药涨超7%；锂矿股延续强 势，天齐锂业涨超 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The suspension of mining at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area may shift the industry's supply - demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong, but it's unlikely to reverse the lithium price trend. The market should be treated with a bullish and volatile view [3][4]. - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are all positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [6]. - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals of iron ore are strongly supported. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On August 11, the suspension of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area made various market rumors self - defeating. The lithium carbonate futures opened at the daily limit. The market's focus is on Yichun lithium mines. Before the official announcement, the mine had already stopped production and had no short - term resumption plan [3]. - The monthly lithium carbonate supply of the Jianxiawo mining area and its supporting smelter is about 10,000 tons, accounting for about 12.5% of the domestic total. The suspension is related to the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law in 2025, which has increased concerns about the supply side [4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is to fluctuate upwards [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supported. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black - industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of "anti-involution" related products, particularly in the context of lithium carbonate prices driven by mining permit delays from Ningde Times, and the upcoming deadline for the suspension of tariffs between China and the US [1][2]. Key Products Lithium Carbonate - The supply side of lithium carbonate is currently disrupted due to mining permit delays, with expectations of price increases. Chile is projected to export 28,800 tons of lithium salt in July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year. The lithium carbonate export volume is expected to reach 21,000 tons, accounting for 73% of total exports [2][24]. - Weekly production has decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, with an anticipated supply increase of 3% to 84,200 tons in August. The consumption of lithium in two major cathode materials is expected to rise by 8% to 86,000 tons [2][24]. - Social inventory has seen its first decline since the end of May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons. The short-term focus remains on warehouse inventory, especially as overseas mining financial reports are set to be released [2][24]. Double Coke - The double coke market continues to show strength, with total positions in coking coal reaching a new high of 970,000 lots. The supply of coking coal is tightening, and there are expectations of production limits from steel mills, which may support prices in the short term [3][25]. Protein Meal - The protein meal market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with the USDA reporting a good soybean crop. The soybean good rate is at 69%, matching market expectations, while the flowering rate is at 85% [3][26]. Despite a good crop outlook, concerns over export demand are keeping prices under pressure [3][26]. Major News International News - President Trump announced the federal control of the Washington D.C. police department and the deployment of the National Guard to restore order and public safety [4]. Domestic News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to questions regarding the extension of tariff suspensions and the easing of export controls on high-bandwidth memory chips, emphasizing a stance against politicizing technology and trade issues [5]. Industry News - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have reached 74,500 yuan per ton, marking a four-month high. Ningde Times confirmed the suspension of mining operations in the Yichun area due to the expiration of its mining permit on August 9, and is working to renew the permit [6].

转自：证券日报 连日来，宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司宜春锂矿项目停产的消息备受关注，并扰动近期碳酸锂价 格，资本市场反应强烈。 据民生证券研究院预测，2025年，全球锂矿的总需求是155.1万吨LCE（碳酸锂当量）；全球总供给为 174.3万吨LCE。国内锂供给主要来自江西云母提锂和青海盐湖提锂，预计两地2025年总供给分别为16.4 万吨LCE、17万吨LCE，江西、青海若因矿证不合规问题或变更矿种的整改过程中发生减停产事件，供 给端或将受到一定的影响。 民生证券金属行业首席分析师邱祖学对记者表示，当前锂价位于底部区间，成本支撑显现，高成本项目 将继续出清。伴随需求端的超预期兑现，碳酸锂价格持续反弹，行业格局有望显著改善。投资者需理性 看待宜春项目等停产影响，避免"过热"解读。 多位分析师认为，从需求端来看，尽管停产消息能在一定程度上提振碳酸锂价格，但基本面并未出现太 大变化。宁德时代宜春项目等停产对碳酸锂价格影响较为有限。 万联证券投资顾问屈放对记者表示，短期内，随着矿权整改的持续推进，锂矿开采和加工环节的产能释 放将受到抑制；中长期来看，行业将向低成本、规模化、绿色化方向转型，具备资源和技术优势的锂矿 ...