| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300313 | *ST天山 | 9.67 | -3.30% | 7.49万 | 7319.70万 | | 002714 | 牧原股份 | 45.81 | -1.19% | 29.85万 | 13.76亿 | | 002458 | 益生股份 | 8.78 | -0.90% | 10.62万 | 9390.65万 | | 002299 | 圣农发展 | 15.82 | -0.88% | 10.59万 | 1.68亿 | | 605296 | 神农集团 | 31.73 | -0.84% | 2.63万 | 8431.63万 | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | 6.29 | -0.47% | 20.62万 | 1.30亿 | | 603477 | 巨星农牧 | 20.60 | -0.43% | 9.84万 | 2.04亿 | | 002157 | 正邦科技 | 2.82 | -0.35% | 61.28万 | 1.74亿 | | 000876 | 新希 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: "Kaiyuan JinGong Optimal Stock Portfolio" **Model Construction Idea**: This model is based on the observation that newly recommended stocks ("newly entered stocks") outperform repeatedly recommended stocks ("repeated stocks"). It incorporates the "Surprise in Earnings" (SUE) factor to select stocks with strong earnings surprises, aiming to enhance portfolio returns[23][25]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use newly recommended stocks as the sample universe. 2. Select the top 30 stocks with the highest SUE factor values. 3. Weight the portfolio based on the number of recommendations by brokers. **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates superior performance compared to the overall stock portfolio and benchmark indices, indicating its effectiveness in capturing excess returns[23][25]. Model Backtesting Results - **Kaiyuan JinGong Optimal Stock Portfolio**: - **July Return**: 5.8%[25] - **2025 YTD Return**: 18.0%[25] - **Annualized Return**: 20.8%[25] - **Annualized Volatility**: 25.2%[25] - **Sharpe Ratio (Return-to-Volatility)**: 0.82[25] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 24.6%[25] - **Overall Stock Portfolio**: - **July Return**: 7.7%[21] - **2025 YTD Return**: 18.5%[21] - **Annualized Return**: 12.2%[21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.4%[21] - **Sharpe Ratio (Return-to-Volatility)**: 0.52[21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 42.6%[21] - **Benchmark Indices**: - **CSI 300**: - **July Return**: 3.5%[21] - **2025 YTD Return**: 3.6%[21] - **Annualized Return**: 2.4%[21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.2%[21] - **Sharpe Ratio (Return-to-Volatility)**: 0.11[21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 40.6%[21] - **CSI 500**: - **July Return**: 5.3%[21] - **2025 YTD Return**: 8.7%[21] - **Annualized Return**: 0.1%[21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.7%[21] - **Sharpe Ratio (Return-to-Volatility)**: 0.01[21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 37.5%[21] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Surprise in Earnings (SUE) Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The SUE factor measures the degree of earnings surprise, which is a key indicator of stock performance. Stocks with higher earnings surprises are expected to outperform[23]. **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the earnings surprise for each stock based on the difference between actual and expected earnings. 2. Rank stocks by their SUE values. 3. Select the top stocks with the highest SUE values for portfolio inclusion[23]. **Factor Evaluation**: The SUE factor demonstrates strong stock selection ability, particularly within the newly recommended stock universe, contributing to the superior performance of the optimal stock portfolio[23]. Factor Backtesting Results - **SUE Factor**: - Integrated into the "Kaiyuan JinGong Optimal Stock Portfolio," contributing to its superior performance metrics as detailed above[23][25].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002321 | 华英农业 | 2.51 | 0.40% | | 35.53万 | 8893.94万 Ir | | 300313 | *ST天山 | 10.00 | -0.10% | | 7.82万 | 7969.97万 | | 605296 | 神农集团 | 32.00 | -1.11% | | 3.83万 | 1.23亿 | | 600965 | 福成股份 | 5.20 | -1.14% | 1 | 8.81万 | 4604.07万 | | 300761 | 立华股份 | 19.31 | -1.18% | | 8.68万 | 1.68亿 | | 002124 | 天邦食品 | 3.04 | -1.30% | | 35.98万 | 1.10亿 | | 002746 | 仙坛股份 | 6.11 | -1.45% | | 10.44万 | 6406.52万 | | 002299 | 圣农发展 | 15.96 | -1.54% | | ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the implementation of policies to control production capacity and reduce the number of breeding sows, aiming for high-quality development in the pig farming industry. This includes reducing the weight of pigs at slaughter and controlling new production capacity to stabilize profits [2][3]. - The report expresses a bearish outlook on recent farming profits due to high inventory levels and low demand, predicting a significant probability of unexpected price declines for pigs. The current average slaughter weight is 128.83 kg, which is among the lowest since 2021, indicating a potential oversupply situation [3]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the sector, suggesting that the industry may enter a new phase of de-stocking, which could lead to a recovery in profit expectations for pig farming companies. Key companies to watch include leading firms such as Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods, along with other flexible targets like Shennong Group and Dekang Agriculture [4]. Summary by Sections - **Policy Implementation**: The meeting on July 23 emphasized strict control over new production capacity and a reduction in the number of breeding sows to address the current high production levels and price volatility in the pig farming industry [2]. - **Profit Outlook**: The report indicates that the high inventory and low demand environment could lead to a significant drop in pig prices, with the current slaughter weight being notably high. The report also notes rising feed costs due to a rebound in corn prices and increased disease interference [3]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests that the combination of price declines and policy-driven reductions in sow numbers may lead to a new de-stocking cycle, presenting potential recovery in profitability for key players in the industry [4].

7月30日，立华股份大宗交易成交145万股，成交额2269.25万元，占当日总成交额的9.25%，成交价 15.65元，较市场收盘价19.54元折价19.91%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase in the industry index relative to the market by over 10% in the next six months [28]. Core Insights - As of July 28, 2025, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has shown a positive trend, with 54 out of 113 listed companies in the sector releasing performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, resulting in a disclosure rate of 48%, the highest among eight major consumer industries [2][9][10]. - The sector's pre-profit rate stands at 69%, with 37 companies expected to be profitable, marking a significant increase in the proportion of companies forecasting profit and growth compared to the previous year [2][10]. - The proportion of companies expecting profit growth has surged from 10% to 28%, while the percentage of companies reporting losses has decreased from 41% to 31%, with 24% of companies turning losses into profits [2][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has a pre-profit rate of 69%, ranking second among consumer industries, with a notable increase in the number of companies forecasting profit [2][10]. - The animal husbandry and animal health sectors have shown particularly strong performance, with a pre-profit rate of 80%, while other sectors like agricultural products processing and fishery also performed well with pre-profit rates of 75% [3][14][15]. Subsector Analysis - The planting sector has underperformed compared to last year, with the proportion of companies forecasting profit growth dropping from 33% to 29%, and 14% of companies reporting first-time losses [3][15]. - The feed sector has shown stability, with 45% of companies turning losses into profits, while the agricultural products processing sector has seen a mixed performance, with a profit growth forecast increasing from 20% to 50% despite 13% of companies reporting continuous losses [3][15]. - The animal husbandry sector has seen a significant reduction in the proportion of companies continuing to report losses, dropping from 33% to 7%, and two-thirds of companies in the animal health sector expect substantial profit growth [3][15].

Market Overview - The aquaculture sector increased by 0.1% on July 30, with Yisheng Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3615.72, up 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11203.03, down 0.77% [1] Stock Performance - Yisheng Co., Ltd. (002458) closed at 9.01, up 2.04% with a trading volume of 232,600 shares and a turnover of 209 million yuan [1] - Minhe Livestock (002234) closed at 8.84, up 1.73% with a trading volume of 79,600 shares [1] - Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761) closed at 19.54, up 1.24% with a trading volume of 113,500 shares [1] - Other notable stocks include Yike Food (301116) at 11.49 (+0.97%) and Fucheng Co., Ltd. (600965) at 5.26 (+0.77%) [1] Capital Flow - The aquaculture sector experienced a net outflow of 395 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 323 million yuan [2] - Speculative funds had a net inflow of 71.99 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Zhengbang Technology (002157) had a net inflow of 12.77 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 16.21 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Shennong Group (605296) saw a net inflow of 8.35 million yuan from institutional investors but a net outflow of 8.33 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Other stocks like Minhe Livestock (002234) and Yisheng Co., Ltd. (002458) experienced net outflows from institutional and speculative funds [3]

养殖业板块异动拉升，中水渔业（000798）涨停，国联水产（300094）、开创国际（600097）、大湖股 份（600257）、益生股份（002458）、民和股份（002234）跟涨。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the effective implementation of agricultural technology services in Jinghe County, Xinjiang, focusing on the integration of cumin and cotton cultivation to enhance productivity and income for local farmers [1][2][3] Group 1: Agricultural Practices - The introduction of the "cotton + cumin" intercropping model allows for two harvests in one season, increasing per-acre profitability and reducing cotton planting costs [1] - Farmers report an increase in income of 300 to 400 yuan per acre due to the new intercropping technique and timely technical guidance [2] Group 2: Technical Support and Community Engagement - The Jinghe County Agricultural and Rural Bureau has established a mechanism where technical leaders and experts provide direct support to farmers, ensuring that agricultural techniques are effectively communicated and implemented [2] - The shift from meetings to fieldwork has fostered a sense of closeness and trust between farmers and agricultural technicians, enhancing the overall service experience [3]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 双汇发展（000895.SZ）7月29日在投资者互动平台表示，目前公司养猪业规模不大，受产能利用率低等 因素影响成本偏高。2024年公司养猪业和禽产业的养殖指标和经营情况持续改善。2025年公司养猪业和 禽产业将继续加强管理提升，强化成本管控，预计经营成绩有望继续改善。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵司的养殖成本是否处于行业领先地位？ ...