The Hong Kong Money Authority (HKMA) plans to issue its first Stablecoin Issuer Licenses in March. According to a report from Reuters, HKMA chief executive Eddie Yue told members at a meeting of the legislative council on Feb. 2 that the central bank expected to issue a “very small number” of licenses in March, though no specific date or further information regarding the potential licensees was given. The HKMA had previously revealed that it received 36 completed applications for Stablecoin Issuer Licen ...

Core Insights - The article analyzes the historical trends of the 10-year Treasury yield since 1962, highlighting its relationship with key economic indicators such as the Fed Funds Rate (FFR), inflation, and the S&P 500 [1] - It discusses the contrasting monetary policies during periods of high inflation and economic recovery, particularly the drastic measures taken by the Federal Reserve in the early 1980s and the ultra-low interest rates following the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic [1] Group 1: Historical Trends - The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 15.68% in October 1981 and reached a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, reflecting significant economic events [1] - The FFR was raised to a historic high of 20.06% in January 1981 to combat inflation, leading to a peak in the 10-year yield shortly thereafter [1] - Following the 2008 financial crisis, the FFR was lowered to approximately 0.04% in May 2020, resulting in a corresponding drop in the 10-year yield [1] Group 2: Recent Developments - From May 2022 to August 2023, the Fed raised the FFR to its highest level in over 20 years, which was mirrored by a rise in the 10-year yield [1] - The Fed held rates steady for over a year as inflation cooled, but shifted to three consecutive rate cuts in September 2024, while the 10-year yield increased despite declining FFR [1] - By the end of December 2025, the 10-year yield was at 4.24% with inflation at 2.68%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Treasuries vs. Equities - Generally, Treasuries and equities move in opposite directions, but during inflationary periods, both can rise due to the impact of higher interest rates on corporate profits [1] - Adjusting the S&P 500 and 10-year yields for inflation reveals the severe impact of stagflation on real equity values from the mid-1960s to 1982 [1] - The Fed's historical extremes in the FFR demonstrate its ability to implement significant policy shifts in response to economic conditions, with varying success in stimulating the economy [1]

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has named a new leadership line-up for the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), the body that supervises audits of listed companies and broker-dealers. Demetrios Logothetis has been selected to chair the PCAOB. His term is scheduled to run until 24 October 2030. Logothetis serves on the board of the Republic Bank of Chicago, where he leads the audit committee. Alongside the new chair, three additional members have been appointed: Mark Calabr ...

Economic Indicators - The Eurozone January S&P manufacturing PMI was revised upward by +0.1 to 49.5 from the previously reported 49.4, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing activity [1] - The US January ISM manufacturing index rose +4.7 to 52.6, surpassing expectations of 48.5, marking the strongest pace of expansion in over 3.25 years [3] - German December retail sales increased by +0.1% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while November retail sales were revised upward to -0.5% from -0.6% [6] Currency Movements - The euro is under pressure, down by -0.33% against the dollar, attributed to a stronger dollar despite the upward revision of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI [1] - The dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.57%, reaching a 1-week high, supported by President Trump's nomination of Keven Warsh as the next Fed Chair, who is perceived as more hawkish [5] - USD/JPY increased by +0.49%, with the yen falling to a 1-week low due to comments from Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi regarding the benefits of a weak currency for export industries [7] Central Bank Policies - The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the BOJ is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points, and the ECB is expected to maintain current rates [2] - The markets are pricing in an 11% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC at the next policy meeting on March 17-18 [2] - The BOJ's January 22 policy meeting summary indicated a hawkish stance, with a focus on addressing rising prices, although the market discounts a rate hike at the next meeting on March 19 [9] Precious Metals Market - April COMEX gold is down -18.80 (-0.40%), while March COMEX silver is up +0.459 (+0.58%), reflecting mixed performance in precious metals [10] - Gold prices are pressured by a stronger dollar and easing geopolitical risks, while silver prices received support from the strong ISM manufacturing report [11] - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's PBOC reserves increasing by +30,000 ounces to 74.15 million troy ounces in December, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of increases [16]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures are indicating a lower opening as investors react to weaker global manufacturing data, rising borrowing costs, and renewed concerns in the AI sector [1] Premarket Trading and Futures Movements - E-mini S&P 500 contracts are down approximately 0.7% to 1.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures are down roughly 1% to 1.5%, indicating a cautious start for the broader market [2] - Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are also trading lower, down between 0.1% and 0.9% [2] Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI figures from Europe, particularly Italy and Spain, remain below the 50-point contraction threshold, indicating a slowdown in factory activity and higher input costs [3] - Rising 10-year bond yields in countries like India and South Korea highlight increasing borrowing costs for governments and corporations globally [3] Major Market Indexes and Trends - The performance of major market indexes such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to face challenges due to premarket sentiment [5] - The tech sector, which has benefited from the AI boom, appears particularly vulnerable to current market concerns [5] Earnings Releases - More than 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, which could lead to significant market volatility [8] - Notable earnings reports are anticipated from tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, and AMD [8] Major Stock News and Developments - Nvidia shares are down approximately 1.5% to 2% due to reports that its plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI has stalled, raising concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven tech rally [14] - Oracle stock rebounded sharply, climbing 5% after announcing plans to raise $45 billion to $50 billion for expanding its cloud infrastructure [15] - Apple reported a record-breaking first quarter for fiscal 2026 with revenue of $143.8 billion, up 16% year-over-year, leading to a target price upgrade from $230 to $260 [17] Healthcare Sector Developments - The healthcare sector faced significant declines after the U.S. government proposed only a 0.09% increase in Medicare reimbursement rates for private insurance plans in 2027, contrasting sharply with a 5.06% increase for 2026 [19] Precious Metals and Commodities - Precious metals are experiencing a significant rout, with gold falling 5.8% and silver slumping 12.3% in early trading, following a substantial drop that erased a combined $7.4 trillion in market value [20] - Oil prices are also under pressure, with Brent crude down 4.5% at around $66 a barrel amid ongoing U.S. and Iran negotiations [20]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh is considered a reasonable choice for the next Federal Reserve chair, with significant experience from his previous tenure during the Global Financial Crisis, but the challenge lies in maintaining the Fed's independence from political influence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Credentials and Experience - Warsh has a strong background in financial markets, having worked at Morgan Stanley and served as an economic advisor to President George W. Bush before his time on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 [3][4]. - His experience during the 2008 financial crisis is highlighted as a critical aspect of his qualifications for the role [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges Ahead - The main concern is whether Warsh can ensure that interest rates are determined by economic conditions rather than political pressures, particularly from President Donald Trump, who has expressed a desire for lower rates [2][5]. - Maintaining the Fed's independence is emphasized as a crucial factor for Warsh's legacy as chair, with various economists stressing the importance of this independence [5][6].

Sierra Bancorp Reports Record Quarterly Earnings and 2025 ResultsFeb 2, 2026 8:01 AM Eastern Standard Time# Sierra Bancorp Reports Record Quarterly Earnings and 2025 ResultsShare---PORTERVILLE, Calif.--([BUSINESS WIRE])--Sierra Bancorp (Nasdaq: BSRR), parent of Bank of the Sierra, today announced unaudited financial results for the three-and twelve-month periods ended December 31, 2025. Sierra Bancorp reported consolidated net income in the fourth quarter of 2025 of $12.9 million, or $0.97 per diluted share ...

Group 1: Investment Strategies - Many family offices are shifting towards real estate and alternative investments, particularly private equity and hedge funds, to protect their portfolios against inflation [1][3] - U.S. family offices reported holding 40% of their investments in public equities, while 34% are in private investments, including private equity, venture capital, private credit, and real estate [5] Group 2: Concerns and Risks - A significant number of family offices are concerned about inflation and geopolitical risks, with 64% citing interest rates and 61% citing inflation as major risks to their portfolios [2] - Nearly three-quarters (72%) of family offices surveyed reported having no exposure to gold, indicating a reluctance to invest in gold despite its recent price surge [6][7] Group 3: Focus on Technology - Artificial intelligence (AI) is a prominent investment theme for family offices, with 65% including AI in their portfolios or prioritizing it for future investments [4] - There is a strong belief among family offices that AI should be a central part of their investment strategy, although there are concerns about concentration risk [6] Group 4: Cash Management - Family offices are maintaining large amounts of cash and cash equivalents, with some holding cash to prepare for potential downturns and to capitalize on opportunistic investments if asset prices decline [8] - Concerns about inflation are leading some family offices to prefer holding cash, as higher rates could result from inflationary pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's financial authority plans to issue a limited number of stablecoin issuer licenses in March, indicating a cautious approach to the growing stablecoin market [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is set to grant a "very small number" of stablecoin issuer licenses in March, as stated by CEO Eddie Yue during a Legislative Council meeting [1]. - The review process for stablecoin issuer applications is nearing completion, suggesting that regulatory frameworks are being established to support the stablecoin market [3]. Group 2: Market Potential - Stablecoins, currently a $300 billion asset class, are projected to grow to a market size between $1.9 trillion and $4 trillion, highlighting significant growth potential in the sector [3]. - Last year, stablecoins facilitated transactions worth $35 trillion on blockchain networks, indicating their increasing adoption and importance in the financial ecosystem [2]. Group 3: Approval Criteria - The criteria for stablecoin issuer license approval will focus on risk management, anti-money laundering measures, and the backing assets of the stablecoins, ensuring a robust regulatory framework [4]. - Licensed issuers will be required to comply with local regulations for cross-border activities, with potential for future mutual recognition agreements with other jurisdictions [4].

Core Viewpoint - Fifth Third Bancorp has successfully completed its merger with Comerica Incorporated, resulting in the formation of the ninth-largest bank in the U.S. with approximately $294 billion in assets [1] Group 1: Merger Details - The merger combines Fifth Third's retail banking and digital capabilities with Comerica's middle market banking franchise, enhancing stability, profitability, and growth potential [1] - Fifth Third will now operate in 17 of the 20 fastest-growing large markets in the U.S., including key regions in the Southeast, Texas, and California, while maintaining its leadership in the Midwest [1] - The combined entity aims to have around 1,750 branches by 2030, with over half located in high-growth areas [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Growth Opportunities - The merger creates two recurring and high-return fee businesses: Commercial Payments and Wealth and Asset Management, which will provide diversified earnings and reinvestment capacity [1] - Over the next five years, the company plans to scale Comerica's middle market expertise, deepen commercial and wealth relationships, expand retail banking, and build an innovation banking business [1] Group 3: Leadership and Integration - Tim Spence, chairman, CEO, and president of Fifth Third, emphasized the merger as a pivotal moment for the bank, aiming to deliver exceptional value for shareholders, customers, and communities [1] - Integration teams will work closely to ensure a seamless transition for customers, with full system and brand conversions expected in the third quarter [1]