Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently stabilizing around the 4000-point mark, which is expected to build a solid foundation for future gains and potentially reach new highs within the year [1][4][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the 4025-point level, marking a new high for both the year and the past decade, with significant gains observed in sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and power equipment [1][5][8] - The report highlights that the market is optimistic about upcoming economic policy meetings in December, which are anticipated to provide positive signals for growth, consumption, and technological innovation [1][9] Group 2 - The report notes that while the market is expected to continue its upward trend, there may be volatility and divergence between index highs and individual stock adjustments due to profit-taking and cautious sentiment from outside investors [2][9][10] - It emphasizes the importance of timing in sector rotation strategies, recommending a balanced allocation and opportunistic buying in sectors with strong performance indicators, including technology growth areas and cyclical industries [2][10] - The report identifies that the energy metals and new energy sectors are experiencing significant growth, driven by supportive policies and a shift in the business model of the storage industry towards self-sustainability [6][7]

行业政策偏利好 转自：期货日报 近期，受第四批出口配额发布影响，尿素价格大幅反弹，主力合约最高涨至1679元／吨。后期随着利多 情绪逐步消化，价格再度回落。综合来看，一方面，供应持续高位运行，全国尿素日产量维持在19万吨 以上，库存压力凸显；另一方面，农业用肥进入淡季，工业需求恢复缓慢，且复合肥和秋季肥生产已结 束，市场逐步转为供大于求格局。目前尿素呈现明显的震荡特征，期价或在1600~1700元／吨区间内反 复波动。不过，后期气头企业检修可能带来供应减量，淡储需求也将逐步启动，加之原料端表现强势， 上述因素将对行情形成一定支撑。 储备性需求增加 2025年尿素产能仍处于集中投放阶段，截至11月已投产尿素产能达630万吨。当前尿素日产量长期维持 在19万吨以上，最高接近21万吨。最新数据显示，当前尿素日产量为19.8万吨。在高日产量背景下，行 业库存持续处于历史高位。据卓创资讯统计，2025年尿素企业库存多数时间维持在100万吨以上，最高 达到170万吨，处于历年高位水平。 不过，11月中旬之后，国内气头尿素装置将步入检修季。加之当前行业处于亏损状态，装置检修概率或 高于往年。据统计，全国气头尿素日产量约4. ...

Core Insights - The phenomenon of "listing peak" has become a norm in the A-share market, with over 70% of new stocks listed this year facing losses if investors bought at the closing price on the first day [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - A stock listed for only six days has seen a continuous decline, with initial investors suffering losses exceeding 45% [1]. - The fertilizer company Hong Sifang experienced a first-day surge of 2255%, reaching a peak of 188 yuan, only to see its price halve by the next day [3][4]. - Other stocks like Changlian Technology and Qiangbang New Materials also exhibited extreme volatility, with declines of 86% and 81% respectively after initial spikes [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The commonality among these new stocks is their small circulation, which allows speculative funds to easily manipulate prices, leading to significant losses for retail investors [4][9]. - The average first-day increase for new stocks has surged from 60.37% to 228.15% due to a sharp reduction in the number of new listings, which has intensified speculative trading [11]. Group 3: Valuation Issues - Despite significant price drops, many new stocks remain overvalued compared to industry averages, with some trading at price-to-earnings ratios far exceeding the sector's norms [4][5]. - For instance, Hong Sifang's price-to-earnings ratio remains at 86 times, while the industry average is only 15 times [4]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Retail investors often exhibit a "hope" mentality, leading to further losses as they hold onto stocks in the hope of recovery, while institutional investors typically adopt a cautious approach, often selling on the first day [7][9]. - The trend of "buying high and hoping to sell higher" has resulted in many retail investors being trapped in losing positions, with some needing substantial company performance improvements to recover their investments [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Agricultural University Fertilizer Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "the company") is facing challenges in its IPO process, with declining revenue, shrinking orders, and pressure on core product prices, despite its leading position in the niche fertilizer market [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown a downward trend from 26.76 billion yuan in 2022 to an estimated 14.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Net profit figures have remained relatively stable, with 1.01 billion yuan in 2022 and 1.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a situation of "profit increase without revenue increase" [4]. - Revenue from the new fertilizer business decreased from 19.68 billion yuan in 2022 to 19.24 billion yuan in 2024, with average prices dropping from 2842 yuan/ton to 2596 yuan/ton [4]. Order Backlog - The company's order backlog has been declining, with amounts of 6.29 billion yuan in 2022, 4.7 billion yuan in 2023, and further down to 1.40 billion yuan by June 30, 2025 [8]. - The decrease in orders is attributed to falling raw material prices, leading to more conservative purchasing behavior from customers [8]. IPO Fundraising and Project Adjustments - The company plans to raise 4.13 billion yuan through its IPO, down from an initial target of 5.52 billion yuan, with significant cuts to its fundraising projects [9][12]. - The company has canceled the "15,000 tons of micro-ecological preparation series production project" and reduced the amount allocated for working capital by 10 million yuan [12]. Industry Context - The overall industry is not performing well, with the average capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizers in China expected to be only 28.61% in 2024, while new capacity is still being added [13]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing 1.8 billion yuan in dividends over the past three years, which raises questions about its cash flow management amid declining revenues [13]. Inventory and Related Transactions - The company's inventory value has been significant, accounting for 30% of current assets, with a notable risk of price declines in the fertilizer market [14]. - The company has faced scrutiny regarding the fairness of pricing in related transactions, particularly with its actual controller's company, which has raised concerns about potential profit transfers [18][19].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q1 2026 were $77.5 million, a 17% decline compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the transition towards a more scalable seed business model and lower-margin sales [8][9] - Gross profit remained almost equal at $36 million, with a gross margin expansion of 650 basis points, reflecting improved product mix and margin expansion [4][11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $13.6 million, a 61% increase compared to $8.5 million in the same period last year, driven by a significant reduction in operating costs [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crop protection revenues were $39.9 million, a 16% decline year-over-year, attributed to sluggish demand in Argentina and lower sales in the US and Brazil [8][9] - Seed and integrated products revenues were $12.6 million, a 37% decline compared to last year, expected to continue for at least two more quarters due to the unwinding of the HB4 downstream program [9][10] - Crop nutrition revenues were $25.1 million, broadly in line with last year, with higher biostimulant sales offset by weaker fertilizer dynamics [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for microbe-based fertilizers improved in Argentina, particularly in terms of volume, supported by strong corn planting intentions, although delayed purchases in Paraguay and Uruguay offset these gains [10] - The company noted sluggish demand in Argentina for crop protection products, with tight credit conditions and uncertainty ahead of midterm elections impacting sales [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving the quality of revenues, protecting margins, and operating with discipline while pursuing its core purpose of enabling better agriculture [5][6] - A target was set to operate above a 40% gross margin level, achieve profitability above 20% of adjusted EBITDA over sales, and reduce annual SG&A costs by $10-$12 million [6][12] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the complex operating environment but emphasized a disciplined approach to profitability, liquidity, and capital efficiency [16] - The company is actively managing liquidity and debt maturities while maintaining constructive dialogue with lenders [16] Other Important Information - Total financial debt as of September 30, 2026, was $242.5 million, down from $260.2 million, primarily due to the repayment of working capital loans in Argentina [14] - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaled $16.6 million, resulting in a net financial debt of $225.9 million, essentially flat versus the prior quarter [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential for imports from Argentina to the US post-election - Management noted that beef production and profitability in Argentina are high, and the low tariff classification could benefit the company in serving the US market with Argentine-manufactured ag input products [18] Question: Status of Corteva sales of biopesticides into Europe - Management indicated that there are currently no bioprotection products registered in Europe, but biostimulant sales have improved in Argentina and Latin America, with Corteva Europe sales expected later in the year [19]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) announced the resignation of Mr. Wen Runhua as one of the joint company secretaries and authorized representatives effective from November 13, 2025 [1] Group 1 - Mr. Wen Runhua will cease to serve as the joint company secretary and authorized representative under the Hong Kong Listing Rules [1] - Ms. Gan Meixia has been appointed as the new joint company secretary, authorized representative, and legal representative effective from November 13, 2025 [1] - Ms. Shi Huiyi will continue to serve as the other joint company secretary [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) has announced the signing of an EPC general contracting agreement for electrical and instrumentation equipment renovation projects, with a total cost not exceeding RMB 31 million [1][2] Group 1: Project Details - The project involves the design, procurement, construction, installation, and commissioning of electrical and instrumentation equipment [1][2] - The electrical renovation includes the replacement of 10kV incoming cables, transformers, low-voltage distribution cabinets, and related grounding system modifications across various distribution rooms [1] - The instrumentation renovation includes the replacement of field instrument cables, control cabinets, and the relocation of distributed control system (DCS) cabinets to new control rooms [2] Group 2: Board Approval - The board of directors, including independent non-executive directors, considers the EPC contract transactions to be conducted on normal commercial terms and in the overall interest of the company and its shareholders [2] - No directors are deemed to have a significant interest in the EPC contract, thus no abstention from voting on the board resolution for the contract approval is required [2]

Core Viewpoint - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) has entered into a total contracting agreement for the backfill utilization project of harmless phosphogypsum, with a total cost of RMB 62,644,158.09 [1] Group 1 - The agreement was signed on November 13, 2025, between Sinochem Fuling, Zhonglan Lianhai, and Zhejiang Tuohai [1] - The project includes design, procurement, and construction responsibilities assigned to Zhonglan Lianhai and Zhejiang Tuohai [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) has announced the signing of an EPC contract for the electrical and instrumentation equipment upgrade project, with a total cost not exceeding RMB 31 million [1][2]. Group 1: Project Details - The EPC contract involves Sinochem Yunlong commissioning Zhonglan Lianhai and Yunnan Qiangshi for design, procurement, construction, installation, and commissioning of the electrical and instrumentation equipment upgrade project [1]. - The electrical upgrade includes replacing 10kV incoming cables, transformers, and low-voltage distribution cabinets across various distribution rooms, as well as the removal of existing equipment [1]. - The instrumentation upgrade involves replacing control cabinets, relocating distributed control system (DCS) cabinets, and removing old cables and protective conduits [2]. Group 2: Board Approval - The board of directors, including independent non-executive directors, considers the EPC contract transaction to be conducted on normal commercial terms and in the overall interest of the company and its shareholders [2]. - No directors are deemed to have a significant interest in the EPC contract, thus they are not required to abstain from voting on the board resolution for its approval [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Urea spot new orders follow-up slowed down, and the futures market rose slightly due to export news. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is winding up, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. The overall operating rate remains stable. Melamine operating rate increased slightly, with rigid demand procurement. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, and inventory decreased. The high inventory area is still Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start-up rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light storage rhythm. The news of the fourth batch of 600,000 tons of export quotas has improved the year-end export expectation of urea, which is expected to support the spot market. India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tender on November 7, with an intention to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender will close on November 20, be valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 12, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,655 yuan/ton (+15). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was -55 yuan/ton (-25), in Henan was -45 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was -55 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (up 0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 12, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (-10), and the export profit was 930 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but the export profit is mentioned in the price and basis section, with an export profit of 930 yuan/ton (-1) on November 12, 2025 [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (unchanged), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (up 3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]