Report Title - The report is titled "Natural Gas: Market Volatility Declines, Geopolitical Risks Remain" [1] Researcher Information - The researcher is Wu Xiaorong, with a futures practice certificate number of F03108405 and an investment consulting certificate number of Z0021537 [2] Report Structure - The report consists of three chapters: "Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies", "Fundamental Analysis", and "Core Data Tracking" [3] Fundamental Analysis LNG Market - Some data related to LNG: 103 LNG, 162 LNG, 91.7; 4370 GWh/ with a 21.2% change; 1710 GWh/ with an 8.2% change, 9932 GWh/ with a 2.0% change; power consumption data such as 439.7 TWH, 49.8 TWH, 149 TWh with an -18.8% change, 38.5%, 51.3%, 55.2% [11] US Market - The number of natural gas rigs is 1117, with an 8.9% change compared to the previous period and a 5.6% change year - on - year; the number of rigs increased by 3 to 125; some consumption and production data: 1315 / with a 9.0% change, 394 / with a 30.7% change, 293 / with a 52.1% change, 519 / with a 15.2% change; 187 with a 27.1% change and 23.5% change [13] Core Data Tracking Price and Spread - TTF - HH spread, international natural gas prices (JKM first - line, TFU first - line, HH first - line), HH month - spread (HH M1 - M2, HH M1 - M6, HH M1 - M12), TTF month - spread (TTF M1 - M2, TTF M1 - M6, TTF M1 - M12) are presented in graphical form [17] - HH, JKM, and TTF forward curves are shown [20] Supply and Demand in China - China's natural gas supply and demand, including supply volume and consumption volume, and China's LNG supply (domestic LNG supply and imported tanker LNG supply) are presented in graphical form [23] Inventory in China - China's inventory situation, including receiving station inventory level (in tons) and gas storage inventory level (in percentage), and China's LNG ex - factory price (China LNG ex - factory settlement price, North China LNG ex - factory settlement price, South China LNG ex - factory settlement price, East China LNG ex - factory settlement price) are presented in graphical form [26] European Market - Northwest European gas - coal conversion interval, European natural gas inventory, floating storage over 20 days volume, European LNG import volume, and European natural gas import (Norwegian exports to (European continent + UK), Russian three main lines, Russian exports to Bulgaria, North African pipeline gas, LNG imports, Azerbaijan to Italy) are presented in graphical form [29][32] US Market - US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig number (natural gas rigs and oil - gas rigs), liquefied export project flow, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, residential and commercial consumption are presented in graphical form [35][38] - US supply - demand balance sheet data: dry gas production is 1117.1 (compared to 1025.9 last week and 1057.7 last year, with an 8.9% and 5.6% change respectively); Canadian pipeline gas net import is 75.1 (compared to 87.3 last week and 62.0 last year, with a - 14.0% and 21.1% change respectively); domestic demand is 1314.7 (compared to 1445.4 last week and 1017.3 last year, with a - 9.0% and 29.2% change respectively); gas - electricity consumption is 393.6 (compared to 423.3 last week and 301.1 last year, with a - 7.0% and 30.7% change respectively); industrial consumption is 292.7 (compared to 317.0 last week and 192.4 last year, with a - 7.7% and 52.1% change respectively); residential and commercial consumption is 519.4 (compared to 595.6 last week and 429.1 last year, with a - 0.3% and 15.2% change respectively); pipeline loss and liquefaction plant demand is 109.1 (compared to 109.4 last week and 94.7 last year, with a - 0.3% and 15.2% change respectively); pipeline gas export to Mexico is 62.7 (compared to 63.1 last week and 64.4 last year, with a - 0.7% and - 2.7% change respectively); liquefied export project flow is 186.8 (compared to 146.9 last week and 151.2 last year, with a 27.1% and 23.5% change respectively) [40] Weather Forecast - ECMWF and GFS temperature and wind speed forecasts are presented in graphical form [43][46]

Core Viewpoint - The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is expected to transition from a tight supply to a relatively loose supply by 2026, leading to a new "buyer’s market" as new capacities come online, despite a slowdown in demand growth overall [1][2]. Supply and Capacity - At least 35 million tons per year of new LNG capacity is projected to come online globally by 2026, primarily from the U.S. and Qatar, with total global LNG supply expected to reach between 460 million and 484 million tons, reflecting a potential annual growth rate of up to 10% [2][3]. - Significant projects contributing to this capacity increase include the Golden Pass LNG project and the expansion of Qatar's North Field, with the former expected to start operations in mid-2026 and the latter to be completed by 2028 [2][3]. - U.S. LNG exports are forecasted to grow by 26% in 2025, continuing to rise until 2027, although at a slower pace [2]. Price Trends - The supply growth is anticipated to exert downward pressure on prices, with average spot LNG prices in Asia expected to range between $9.90 and $12.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026, and European benchmark prices projected to fall to between $9.50 and $9.74 per MMBtu [3]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 Henry Hub natural gas price forecast down to $3.75 per MMBtu, maintaining a forecast of $3.80 per MMBtu for 2027 [3]. Demand Dynamics - Asia is expected to remain a robust LNG demand market, with 64% of global LNG exports directed to the region in 2025. Demand in Asia is projected to grow by 4% to 7% in 2026, driven by price declines and increased purchases, particularly from India [4]. - Europe is also set to absorb additional supplies, with LNG imports expected to increase by 22 million tons in 2026, driven by winter stock replenishment and lower natural gas prices stimulating consumption [4][6]. Emerging Markets - Sub-Saharan Africa is emerging as a significant player in the LNG supply landscape, with exports projected to surge from 35.7 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 98 billion cubic meters by 2034, marking an increase of nearly 175% [7][8]. - Key projects in this region include the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project and the Rovuma LNG project, with the former expected to start production in 2025 and the latter aiming for a final investment decision in 2026 [7][8]. Market Challenges - Despite the optimistic outlook for supply growth, challenges such as regional instability and infrastructure weaknesses in parts of Africa may hinder progress [8]. - The LNG market is transitioning towards structural oversupply, necessitating a reevaluation of sourcing and downstream facilities to ensure reliable market access [8].

新华财经上海2月6日电（谈瑞）上海石油天然气交易中心6日消息，2月6日当周，上海石油天然气交易中心成交的2026年2月交付中国管道天然气现货价格为 2.46元／立方米。 上海石油天然气交易中心每周五对外发布"中国管道天然气现货价格"及各省份同期交付的管道天然气现货价格的当周均价，遇到节假日提前到节假日前最后 一个工作日发布。此外，在每个月底，上海石油天然气交易中心还发布"中国管道天然气现货月度均价"，为行业上下游企业提供定价参考。 上海石油天然气交易中心是在国家发展改革委、国家能源局直接指导下，由上海市人民政府批准设立的能源交易平台，是深化国内油气价格市场化改革的重 要支撑。 | 交易日期 | 交付地区 | 交付月份 | 中国管道天然气现1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 格(元/立方米) | | 2026 年 1 月 31 日至 2 月 6 日 | 全国 | 2026 年 2 月 | 2.46 | 据介绍，"中国管道天然气现货价格"是基于上海石油天然气交易中心管道天然气现货交易形成的价格，为全国当月或下月交付的管道天然气现货价格的周度 均价。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Upstream prices are falling, and the downstream real estate market is sluggish [1][3] - The implementation of relevant policies in the production and service industries will have an impact on the industry [1] Summary by Directory 1. Mid - level Event Overview Production Industry - The eight - department plan aims to form a coordinated development system for the entire Chinese medicine industry chain by 2030, enhance the stable supply capacity of key Chinese medicine raw materials, improve digital and green levels, achieve breakthroughs in key technologies, and cultivate 60 high - standard Chinese medicine raw material production bases [1] Service Industry - The 11 - department "Implementation Opinion" aims to improve the digital service convenience for overseas personnel entering China, establish a digital service system, and create a more international and convenient digital service environment [1] 2. Industry Data Upstream - Energy: International oil and natural gas prices have a slight correction [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices have fallen [3] - Non - ferrous metals: Nickel and aluminum prices have declined [3] Mid - stream - Chemical industry: The operating rates of PX and urea have slightly decreased [3] - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants has decreased [3] - Agriculture: The operating rate of pig products is at a high level [3] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities continue to decline [3] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a high level [3] 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Various industries' price indicators show different trends, with some prices rising and some falling. For example, the price of WTI crude oil has increased by 3.05%, while the price of eggs has decreased by 12.28% [36]

报告显示，2025年全球全年获批的液化天然气产能超过每年900亿立方米，批准的投资规模仅次于2019 年。美国正引领新一轮液化天然气产能投资周期。2025年，美国达成的液化天然气产能投资决策超过 800亿立方米/年，创下美国液化天然气行业的历史新高。这些项目包括路易斯安那液化天然气项目、科 珀斯克里斯蒂液化天然气第8、9号生产线、CP2项目一期、格兰德河液化天然气第4号生产线及亚瑟港 项目二期。这轮新项目将巩固美国作为全球最大液化天然气供应国的地位。到2030年，美国在全球液化 天然气市场所占的份额有望从2025年的约25%提升至33%左右。 2025年全球主要市场的天然气交易量创历史新高。美国亨利枢纽天然气交易量增长8%，欧盟与英国天 然气交易量预计增长约17%。尽管中国现货液化天然气采购量下降，东北亚关键天然气衍生品交易量仍 实现35%的增长。与之相对应，全球液化天然气交易合同签署显著增加。2025年签订的液化天然气合同 年交易量超过1300亿立方米，创下过去10年最高纪录。仅美国就占据2025年合同总交易量的50%左右， 欧洲买家的液化天然气订购规模也较2024年增长翻了一番，达到近250亿立方米。 报 ...

卡比指出，AI相关用电需求形成了此前预测中未充分考量的新增消费维度。卡比表示，当前卡塔尔正 推进北方气田LNG项目扩建，计划21世纪30年代初将本国LNG年产能从7700万吨提升至12600万吨，该 规划原本为满足亚欧地区稳步增长的需求，并未考虑AI带来的电力消费激增。 天然气发电是满足大规模可靠用电需求的快捷方式，在多国争抢数据中心和AI基建落地的背景下，原 本预计至2030年需求见顶的LNG市场，需求或再度攀升。卡比强调，短缺风险并非即刻出现，而是集 中在本十年后半段。若AI需求扩张的同时，新LNG项目落地延迟或地缘政治引发供应扰动，全球LNG 闲置产能将快速缩减，市场收紧时间可能早于预期。 中化新网讯 2月2日，卡塔尔能源大臣萨阿德·卡比警告称，尽管自2030年起全球规划新增年LNG产能超 1亿吨，但人工智能(AI)带来的电力需求激增，仍可能在2030年左右耗尽全球LNG过剩产能，令市场陷 入电力短缺。 卡比表示，各国政府和科技企业加大大型算力基建投资，推动AI数据中心成为天然气需求的重要来 源。这类数据中心需持续供电，在可再生能源尚无法稳定提供基础电力的地区，天然气发电的依赖度因 此提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Pipeline Group announced a record high of 30 billion cubic meters in natural gas transmission for January 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of over 14% for both incoming and outgoing gas volumes [1] Group 1 - The natural gas transmission business achieved a historical peak in January 2025 [1] - Both incoming and outgoing gas volumes exceeded 30 billion cubic meters [1] - Year-on-year growth for both metrics surpassed 14% [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shouhua Gas experienced a 5% increase in stock price, reaching 16.16 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 119 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.42%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 5.074 billion CNY [1] - Shouhua Gas Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. was established on January 8, 2003, and listed on June 30, 2015. The company is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of gardening products, as well as natural gas exploration, development, production, and sales [1] - The company's main business revenue is entirely derived from natural gas operations, accounting for 100% of its revenue, with no contributions from other sources [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, one fund under Southern Fund has a significant position in Shouhua Gas. The Southern Growth Enterprise Board 2-Year Open Mixed Fund (160143) held 1.0123 million shares in the fourth quarter, representing 4.1% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The Southern Growth Enterprise Board 2-Year Open Mixed Fund (160143) was established on September 1, 2020, with a latest scale of 350 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 2.79%, ranking 4969 out of 8873 in its category, while the one-year return is 52.73%, ranking 1505 out of 8123 [2] - The fund manager, Ying Shuai, has a tenure of 18 years and 277 days, with total assets under management of 6.529 billion CNY. The best fund return during his tenure is 290.35%, while the worst is -74.47% [2]

在监控场站工作。 检查燃气线路。 2月5日，新春小长假即将来临，冬季天然气保供工作再次迎来"大考"。面对严峻的天气形势与民生用能需求，中国石油天然气销售青海公司(简称"青海公 司")坚决以"民生温度"为核心，全力以赴守护高原群众温暖过冬。 青海公司细化保供方案、压实各级责任，坚决杜绝短供、断供情况；深化协同联动，主动对接政府部门、国家管网及上下游用户，聚焦西宁、格尔木等重点 区域及民生用气需求，精准调配资源、优化运输路径，构建"政府引导、企业主责、多方参与、合力保供" 的良好格局。 针对冬季低温易导致设备、管线冻损的问题，格尔木LNG工厂全面启动冬季防冻防凝专项检查，以"不冻坏一台设备、不冻凝一条管线"为目标，结合往年防 冻经验与当前生产实际，制定系统完善的防冻防凝方案。工厂组织技术骨干围绕机泵、管线、阀门、仪表等关键部位梳理防冻重点，建立专项管理台账，明 确责任人和应急处置流程。在检查执行中，采取"拉网式排查+靶向性抽检"相结合的方式，重点对循环水管线、压缩机冷却系统、热水管线及保温伴热设施 进行细致检查，对发现的隐患建立整改清单，实行"定时限、定人员、定措施"的闭环管理。同时，针对以往易出现的防冻死角开展 ...

Core Insights - Shanxi Province's unconventional natural gas production is projected to reach 18.23 billion cubic meters by 2025, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase and setting a new historical record for annual output [1] Industry Developments - Unconventional natural gas refers to gas that cannot be explained by traditional oil and gas geological theories and cannot be extracted using conventional techniques [1] - Shanxi has established six gas fields, each with an annual production capacity of 1 billion cubic meters [1] - The total length of natural gas long-distance pipelines in Shanxi has reached 9,259 kilometers, effectively covering all county areas in the province and significantly enhancing the convenience of gas access for residents [1]