Core Insights - The article highlights the emerging opportunities for Chinese brands in the automotive aftermarket to expand internationally, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, driven by increasing demand and technological innovation [2] - It discusses the trend of Chinese companies adopting a "group out" strategy to mitigate risks associated with globalization, emphasizing collaboration and resource sharing among enterprises [5] - The article also explores the innovative approaches of Chinese cultural IPs in global markets, showcasing successful cases like "Nezha" and the importance of creating a collaborative ecosystem around IP [6] - It outlines the strategic responses of Chinese enterprises to global challenges, focusing on compliance, risk management, and the need for a shift in mindset towards becoming rule-makers in international trade [7] Industry Environment - The Chinese automotive aftermarket is entering a golden period for brand internationalization, with exports projected to rise from 2.01 million units in 2021 to 5.86 million units by 2024, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [2] - A new "Smart Terminal Overseas Service Innovation Alliance" has been established to enhance digital service capabilities for smart terminal exports, with expectations of reaching $250 billion in export value by 2024 [3] - The "group out" strategy is gaining traction among Chinese companies, focusing on service-oriented overseas expansion and collaborative resource sharing to build competitive advantages [5] Cultural and IP Expansion - The success of Chinese IPs like "Nezha" demonstrates the potential for cultural exports, with the film grossing over 15 billion yuan during the 2025 Spring Festival, highlighting the importance of IP-driven ecosystem development [6] - The article emphasizes the shift from product-focused strategies to creating immersive experiences and cross-industry collaborations to enhance brand recognition and cultural resonance [6] Globalization Strategies - Chinese companies are advised to adopt three key strategies in response to global challenges: "stop the bleeding" by ceasing high-risk activities, "blood production" by exploring new revenue sources, and "blood exchange" by fostering international perspectives [7] - The article stresses the importance of legal compliance and supply chain restructuring to enhance global competitiveness [7] Regional Focus - Chinese construction firms are making significant strides in the Middle East, with investments totaling several billion dollars, positioning the region as a key market for Chinese infrastructure projects [8][9] Company Dynamics - Yili's international business is projected to show results in the next five years, with a revenue target of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024 and a focus on steady growth in Southeast Asia [12] - Tencent Cloud is accelerating its international expansion in Japan, with plans to build a third data center and launch a food reservation mini-program to cater to Chinese tourists [14] - Moutai's overseas revenue is expected to reach $970 million by 2024, with a 37.53% increase in Q1 2025, as the company focuses on cultural output and quality enhancement [15] - The rapid growth of Pop Mart's overseas revenue by 480% in Q1 2025 illustrates the effectiveness of its "IP + trendy toys + experience economy" model in global markets [21]

开幕式现场，北京市贸促会与广西贸促会、东城区人民政府，北京国际商会与东盟经济贸易促进会、英 国格拉斯哥商会分别签署战略合作协议，涉及汽车金融、并购基金、人才培养、医药健康、出海服务等 领域，共13个项目集中签约。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 京洽会聚焦中东、东盟、拉美、欧洲等中企出海热点地区，通过推介交流、圆桌对话、展示洽谈等形 式，构建中外政企多元化交流平台。300余家中外企业将在现场洽谈交流，为促进双向投资、深化互利 合作提供新机遇，注入新动能。泰国驻华大使馆公使衔参赞、斯里兰卡驻华大使馆公使衔商务参赞、墨 西哥驻华大使馆商务参赞、印尼驻华大使馆投资参赞、英国苏格兰格拉斯哥商会中国战略高级顾问、中 国香港特区政府投资推广署投资推广副总监等嘉宾将登台推介，共享发展商机，共谋合作机会。 聚焦中东等热点地区，京洽会专设"北京-沙特先进制造业洽谈会"，沙特国家工业发展中心执行副总裁 等出席。沙方机构将全面解读沙特投资战略、工业用地等政策，组织沙特企业与智能制造、现代物流、 绿色能源、基建工程等领域的中资企业开展"一对一"洽谈，精准对接客商需求，推动项目务实合作。 为打造展、谈、会一体的融合场景，京洽会在现场设 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, but new contract signings showed positive growth, indicating potential recovery in the upcoming quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 154.6 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.47 billion, down 11.0% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.6%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.07 percentage points to 3.54% [1][2]. - The company experienced a cash outflow of 48.9 billion in operating activities for Q1 2025, which was 9.3 billion more than the previous year, primarily due to seasonal factors [2]. Contract and Order Growth - New contract signings for Q1 2025 reached 553 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, laying a solid foundation for annual growth [2]. - The breakdown of new contracts includes 493.5 billion in infrastructure construction, 15.5 billion in design, and 4.1 billion in dredging, with notable growth in overseas projects [2]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company had a debt ratio of 34.3% and a liability ratio of 75.3%, both showing slight increases compared to the previous year [2]. - The cash collection ratio for Q1 2025 was 94.9%, down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year, while the cash payment ratio was 125.5%, up 3.77 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 24.6 billion, 25.9 billion, and 27.0 billion for 2025-2027 [3]. - The target price for A shares is set at 12.11 yuan, while the target price for H shares is adjusted to 7.33 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating for both A and H shares [3].

广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 SAC: S0260512020003 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发证券资深金工分析师 张钰东 SAC: S0260522070006 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 最近5个交易日，科创50指数跌0.63%，创业板指跌6.73%，大盘价值跌2.61%，大盘成长跌3.37%，上证50跌1.60%，国证2000代表的小盘跌6.29%，农林牧 渔、商贸零售市场表现靠前，电力设备、通信表现靠后。 风险溢价，中证全指静态PE的倒数EP减去十年期国债收益率，权益与债券资产隐含收益率对比，历史数次极端底部该数据均处在均值上两倍标准差区 域，比如2012/2018/2020年（疫情突发），2022/04/26达到4.17%，2022/10/28风险溢价再次上升到4.08%，市场迅速反弹，2024/01/19指标4.11%，自2016年 以来第五次超过4%。截至2025/04/11指标4.09%，两倍标准差边界为4.73%。 估值水平，截至2025/04/11，中证全指PETTM分位数45%，上证50与沪深300分别为56%、43%，创业板指接近9%，中证500与中证1000 ...

Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index decline by 0.63%, the ChiNext Index drop by 6.73%, and the large-cap value index decrease by 2.61% [1] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, along with retail trade, performed well, while the power equipment and telecommunications sectors lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically high levels, reaching 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.11% on January 19, 2024 [1] - As of April 11, 2025, the risk premium stands at 4.09%, with the two-standard deviation boundary at 4.73% [1] Valuation Levels - As of April 11, 2025, the CSI All Share Index's PE TTM percentile is at 45%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 56% and 43% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index is at a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2] - The long-term view of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear and bull markets every three years, with the current adjustment phase starting in Q1 2021 showing sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 206.9 billion yuan, while margin financing decreased by approximately 98.3 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.5742 trillion yuan [3] AI and Machine Learning Insights - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with features mapped to industry themes, indicating a focus on sectors like securities as of April 11, 2025 [7][2]

广发宏观周度述评（第7期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-6期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 今年经济节奏可能会不同于过去两年。 年初以来，经济数据整体实现开门红。1-2月六大口径数据中，工业、消费、服务业、投资、地产销售同比增速均 高于去年5.0%的实际GDP所对应的年度增速。但由于过去两年均是在一季度形成景气高点，今年市场存在对经济"前高后低"的担心，应该怎么看这一问题？ 首先，简单以PMI作为观测标准，历史上确实有些年份一季度形成相对景气高点，但也有不少年份不同，比如2013年景气峰值在下半年，2014-2015在年中， 2016年经济全年震荡向上，2017年在三季度。 其次，年初形成景气高点的年份，往往存在特定的经济调结构因素。比如2011年是控通胀，2月开始加息；2012年是地产调控，年初地产销售大幅度转负；2018 年是结构性去杠杆；2021年是专项债穿透式监管叠加房地产调控；2023-2024年是隐性债务化解，2024年还包括金融"防空转、挤水分"。从政策节奏来说，调 结构防风险往往位于二季度，它容易带来一季度景气高点。 今年经济节奏有望有所不同： （1）本轮稳增长是去年三季度末启动，至今两个季度，经济好 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for investment, suggesting a "moderate recovery + structural transition" in the economy for 2025 [57]. Core Insights - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the need to boost consumption, enhance investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand comprehensively [5][57]. - Key development goals include a GDP growth target of around 5%, a focus on employment, and a commitment to ecological improvement [5][7]. - The report outlines a proactive fiscal policy with a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [5][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the 2025 Government Work Report - The report sets a GDP growth target of approximately 5%, with urban unemployment around 5.5% and over 12 million new urban jobs [5]. - It highlights the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [5]. 2. Interpretation of the 2025 Government Work Report Consumption - Durable goods consumption is expected to double from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan [13]. - The report aims to enhance service consumption in health, elderly care, and childcare sectors [13]. - New consumption models will be promoted, focusing on digital, green, and intelligent consumption [13]. Fixed Asset Investment - The report emphasizes the need for effective investment, with a proposed central budget investment of 735 billion yuan for 2025 [29]. - It encourages private investment in major infrastructure and social welfare projects [30]. - The focus will be on digital economy innovation, particularly in AI and 5G applications [31][32]. Government Purchases - The report outlines plans to expand high-quality public services in education and healthcare, including reforms in public hospitals and medical services [36]. Net Exports - The report aims to stabilize foreign trade and investment, promoting service trade innovation and encouraging foreign investment in various sectors [41]. 3. Investment Guidance from the 2025 Government Work Report - The report identifies key investment directions, including technology innovation, green economy, consumption upgrades, and infrastructure [57][68]. - It highlights the importance of supporting strategic emerging industries, particularly in aerospace, low-altitude economy, and biomanufacturing [59]. - The green economy is emphasized, with a focus on renewable energy, energy storage technologies, and carbon capture [60]. - Consumption upgrades are targeted to stimulate domestic demand, with specific measures to enhance consumer confidence and spending [61][62].