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Vatee外汇:美元半年最差,却会在七月意外翻身吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 10:06
Group 1 - The US dollar index has experienced its worst start in nearly fifty years, dropping below 97 due to concerns over trade friction, fiscal deficits, and economic slowdown [1][3] - Unexpectedly high job vacancies reported by the US Labor Department indicate resilient labor demand, while a significant tax and spending bill passed by the Senate has led to a rapid increase in long-term yields [1][3] - The market is reassessing the risks of a "too bearish" outlook on the dollar, with the dollar recovering nearly half of its losses against the yen and Swiss franc following the data release [1][3] Group 2 - Despite debt pressures casting a shadow over the dollar, short positions have reached extreme levels since the beginning of the year [3] - If the fiscal bill passes in the House, market focus will shift from the deficit to short-term demand stimulation and corporate profit boosts, potentially supporting the dollar [3] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained a wait-and-see approach but has not ruled out further rate cuts this year, creating a balance between bullish and bearish sentiments for the dollar [3] Group 3 - The ten-year US Treasury yield has returned to 4.25%, indicating that traders are preparing for a re-inflation scenario driven by fiscal stimulus [4] - Key upcoming events include the tariff negotiations on July 9, which could significantly impact the dollar's performance depending on the outcomes [4] - The market is advised to be cautious of overly bearish positions on the dollar, with short-term strategies favoring buying the dollar against high beta currencies [4] Group 4 - The future of the dollar depends on three factors: whether the trade window closes, the resilience of US data, and any adjustments in the Federal Reserve's language [5] - July is expected to be a month of both risks and opportunities for the dollar, with potential for recovery if conditions tilt in favor of bullish sentiment [5]
美元疲软触发机构避险升级:海外资管加速对冲美股汇率风险敞口
智通财经网· 2025-07-02 06:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that overseas asset management institutions and pension funds are accelerating the construction of a firewall against a weakening dollar to mitigate the dual impact of exchange rate fluctuations on U.S. stock portfolios [1] - The traditional logic that "when U.S. stocks fall, the dollar strengthens to provide a buffer" has been challenged, particularly after the dollar index dropped 6.5% to a three-year low due to the Trump administration's global tariff policy [1] - Russell Investments revealed that about 10% of asset portfolios among pension clients in Europe and the UK have increased their hedging ratio for international stock investments, with some aggressive investors raising their risk coverage from 50% to 75% [1] Group 2 - BNP Paribas Asset Management is systematically reducing its dollar exposure by selling dollars through both equity and fixed income portfolios while building long positions in euros, yen, and Australian dollars [2] - Different institutions have varying judgments on dollar valuation; for instance, St. James's Place Capital has maintained its GBP hedging cap while reducing dollar hedging, believing the current dollar exchange rate is close to its long-term fair value [2] - The increase in hedging demand is driven by the widening cracks in asset risk correlation, as noted by Northern Trust's global currency management head [2] Group 3 - Data shows that the euro-hedged version of the MSCI U.S. Index achieved zero returns over the past 12 months, while the unhedged version plummeted by 8.3%, coinciding with a 13% drop in the dollar against the euro [3] - The volume of dollar forward contract sales has reached a four-year high, indicating that investors are opting to "vote with their feet" despite potential dollar rebounds from tariff policy fluctuations or geopolitical conflicts [3] - Asset managers are using foreign exchange derivatives as a core weapon in this currency defense strategy, employing forward contracts and options to build risk barriers against dollar depreciation [3]
每周(6.23-6.27)大白外汇英语交易术语学习汇总
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-30 07:05
Group 1 - The article provides a summary of Forex trading terms and alerts, focusing on different types of alerts available in MetaTrader [1] - Pop-up Alert is a common method for EA notifications, triggered under specific conditions like entry signals or stop-loss activation [2] - Push Alert allows notifications to be sent directly to mobile devices, suitable for users who are away from their computers [3] Group 2 - MAX RETRIES determines the maximum number of retry attempts for EA when an order fails, enhancing the efficiency of high-frequency trading strategies [6][8] - MAX SYMBOLS GLOBAL limits the number of trading instruments that can be traded simultaneously, helping to manage risk exposure and resource allocation [8] - Grid remove SL/TP when start removes existing stop-loss and take-profit settings when the EA starts a grid system, allowing for better control of trades [10] Group 3 - Grid levels mode: SR Filter uses support and resistance levels for intelligent decision-making in grid trading, improving entry quality [11] - Close FIFO compliant ensures that the first opened orders are closed first, complying with regulations in certain jurisdictions [14] - P/L points mode: Average calculates profit and loss based on the average opening price of all orders, suitable for grid and martingale strategies [14] Group 4 - Big basket after X trades triggers a unified exit strategy after a specified number of trades, improving exit efficiency during significant market movements [18] - Big basket min points profit sets a minimum profit threshold for the entire basket before allowing an exit, ensuring profitability across multiple positions [18]
中东停火 + 美联储 “鸽声嘹亮”!美元破位下行,非美货币迎来窗口期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 08:59
Core Insights - The geopolitical situation and central bank monetary policies are key factors influencing forex market volatility, with significant events in June 2025 altering short-term trends [1] - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on June 23 led to a 5% drop in oil prices, reducing market risk aversion and impacting the dollar's strength [2] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, with officials advocating for a quick interest rate cut, increased the probability of a July rate cut to 23%, further weakening the dollar [3] Event-Driven Analysis - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran significantly reduced geopolitical risk, leading to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets like the dollar, thus creating favorable conditions for non-USD currencies [2] - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments reflect concerns about the U.S. economy, with indicators suggesting potential economic slowdown, prompting a shift in market expectations towards rate cuts [3] Forex Market Impact - The dollar index broke key support levels, reaching a six-week low, indicating a potential new adjustment cycle due to reduced safe-haven demand and rising rate cut expectations [4] - The EUR/USD pair successfully broke the 1.08 resistance level, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite challenges in the Eurozone economy [6] - The Japanese yen experienced a strong rebound due to a wave of short covering in the context of changing market risk preferences [7] Trading Strategy Analysis - Different G10 currencies may exhibit varying performances in the current environment, with the British pound influenced by Brexit developments and the euro benefiting from relative stability [8] - The Chinese economy's recovery will significantly impact the Australian dollar, while the Canadian dollar may face pressure from falling oil prices but could rebound with improved global economic expectations [8] - The current market conditions provide a favorable window for Chinese exporters to manage currency exposure effectively, while investors should remain vigilant regarding macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments [9]
外汇交易平台怎么选?四大平台深度测评助你精准决策
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-20 01:31
在风云变幻的外汇交易市场,选择一个可靠的交易平台是投资者稳健前行的基石。面对市面上纷繁复杂 的平台,如何挑选出真正适配自身需求的优质之选?今天,我们带来四大主流外汇交易平台推荐,为投 资者拨开迷雾,提供清晰的选择参考。 外汇交易平台推荐需综合考量资金安全、产品丰富度、交易成本与服务支持等多方面因素。对于追求全 面服务、注重资金安全与学习资源的投资者而言,FXTM富拓凭借其均衡的优势与稳健的运营,不失为 值得优先考虑的优质选择。 FXTM富拓作为深耕行业超10年的全球顶尖在线交易品牌,近年来深受投资者青睐。平台提供丰富多元 的产品矩阵,涵盖外汇、差价合约、股票、大宗商品等,满足不同投资者的交易需求。凭借优质服务与 卓越产品,富拓已斩获45+行业权威大奖,低主货币点差、低佣金的成本优势降低交易门槛,海量市场 教育资源助力新手快速成长、老手进阶提升。在资金安全方面,多国金融监管与严格的资金隔离机制为 投资者筑牢防线,与劳埃德银行集团合作设立的百万赔偿基金更让资产安全无忧。 福汇(FXCM)作为全球外汇交易领域的头部企业,始终保持行业领先地位。平台受美国NFA与英国 FSA双重监管,交易产品覆盖外汇、贵金属、原油等热 ...
NCE外汇:合规监管,打造安全交易环境
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 18:00
Core Points - NCE Forex demonstrates exceptional compliance capabilities, enhancing market credibility through international certifications [3][16] - The company employs advanced technology and strict privacy protection measures to ensure a secure and transparent trading environment [4][16] - NCE Forex enhances user experience through personalized solutions and efficient technical support [5][16] - Effective implementation of risk management strategies reduces trading risks and optimizes returns [6][16] Compliance and Regulation - The company strictly adheres to international regulatory standards, which significantly boosts platform credibility [3] - Collaboration with regulatory bodies is crucial for maintaining market stability and enhancing transaction transparency [3][4] Technology and Security - The use of intelligent risk control systems and blockchain technology significantly improves transaction security [4] - Data privacy protection measures are in place to prevent unauthorized access, ensuring user confidence [5][13] Customer Service and Support - NCE Forex focuses on understanding customer needs to provide tailored solutions and improve communication skills [5][6] - Technical support is essential for customer satisfaction, with a focus on quick response and accurate problem resolution [6] Risk Management - Identifying potential trading risks is a priority, with strategies in place to monitor market volatility and optimize fund management [6][8] - Regular assessment and updates of risk plans are necessary to adapt to market changes [8] Investor Education - Continuous learning and development are emphasized, with training programs covering risk identification, portfolio management, and compliance knowledge [9][10] - Access to diverse learning resources enhances investors' ability to make informed decisions [10][11]
保命攻略|美联储大戏今夜将启 小心他们会这样搞你!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 06:30
有人可能不知道美联储是是个什么东西,这么说吧,它是全球一切资产价格波动的发动机。这台发动机有两个主要任务:保证美国物价稳定 (Price Stability),促进国内充分就业(Full Employment)。 美联储这个机构挺起来高大上,运作逻辑也很简单,一帮美国金融学院高材生大佬,没事了坐在一起喝喝咖啡,看看CPI、PCE这些通胀数据 距离2%的目标是不是偏差过大,评估一下国内汽油、楼市、用工成本,另外也会看下非农就业是饱和还是大量萎缩。另外,他们参考ISM、 GDP数据是否健康。 这帮人呢,有一个叫政策工具箱的东西,这玩意可以说是金融市场的"月光宝盒",能让行情发生瞬移。他们最常见的是常规工具,比如利率 (加息、降息、维稳)、购债(OMO)、贴现窗口(向商业银行提供短期抵押贷款)、存款准备金率等。 如果经济出现红灯或者濒临ICU,美联储会动用一些非常规"核武器",比如量化宽松(QE)、量化紧缩(QT)、前瞻性指引、紧急贷款工 具。 为什么要跟大家掰扯这些听起来很晦涩的东西?因为这是每次大行情的源头,你们了解一下,就算不参与,能看懂市场,也能获得成就感。接 下来我们重点说下这个利率工具。 最近,中东"千 ...
每周(6.9-6.13)大白外汇英语交易术语学习汇总
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 17:23
Group 1 - The article discusses various forex trading terms and strategies, focusing on automated trading techniques and risk management tools [1][2][4][5][10]. - Auto Split allows traders to break large orders into smaller ones to reduce slippage and avoid platform scrutiny [1]. - Hide Stoploss enables traders to keep their stop-loss levels hidden from the trading platform, preventing manipulation [2]. - Smart TakeProfit dynamically calculates optimal take-profit levels based on various factors, enhancing trading efficiency [4]. - Smart Distance adjusts the distance for adding positions based on market conditions, helping to manage risk effectively [5]. Group 2 - ECN Mode facilitates real market execution by modifying stop-loss and take-profit levels after placing orders, suitable for true ECN accounts [8][10]. - Tick Criterion is a hidden parameter that filters out false breakouts by requiring a certain number of price ticks before executing trades [10]. - Momentum Sell/Buy strategies are employed to capitalize on market movements, entering trades only when significant price action occurs [11][14]. - Prop Firm refers to companies that provide capital for trading, requiring traders to pass assessments under specific conditions [12]. - Strategy Aggressivity adjusts the aggressiveness of trading strategies, impacting trade frequency and risk management [17].
MHmarkets迈汇平台:国际监管下的稳健外汇平台
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 16:20
Core Insights - MHmarkets is recognized for its international regulatory advantages, ensuring a robust and reliable forex trading platform [1][3] - The platform has received certifications from multiple international financial regulatory bodies, enhancing its compliance and transparency [4][6] - It offers efficient execution speed and intelligent trading tools, improving trading convenience and success rates [4][7] - Customer service is available in multiple languages and provides 24/7 online support, optimizing the overall customer experience [4][9] Regulatory Compliance - The platform is certified by several authoritative regulatory bodies, including the UK's FCA, the US CFTC, and Australia's ASIC, which boosts user trust and platform reputation [6] - Strict regulatory measures ensure compliance and user trust, protecting user funds and enhancing platform transparency [5][6] Trading Technology - High execution speed is a key feature, allowing users to respond quickly in volatile markets, thus increasing trading success rates [7] - Intelligent trading tools assist users in making quicker decisions and analyzing market trends, enhancing overall trading efficiency [7][8] - Multi-platform compatibility allows seamless trading across devices, ensuring a consistent user experience [9] Customer Service - The platform's customer support responsiveness significantly impacts user trust and satisfaction, with quick replies to inquiries [9][10] - Multi-language support facilitates communication with users from diverse backgrounds, enhancing the overall service experience [9][10] - The problem resolution rate is a critical indicator of customer service quality, with a focus on timely and effective solutions [10] Security Measures - Strict fund segregation practices ensure user funds are protected, stored in independent regulated bank accounts [10][11] - Advanced security measures, including encryption technology and two-factor authentication, safeguard user information [10][11] - An anti-fraud monitoring system provides real-time detection of suspicious activities, enhancing user confidence [11][12] User Data Protection - Data encryption technology ensures the security of personal information during transmission, increasing user trust [12][13] - The platform's transparent privacy policy outlines data usage and protection measures, fostering user confidence [13] - Effective user data management practices provide a secure environment for storing registration information and transaction records [13] User Experience - The platform offers a user-friendly interface that reduces learning costs for new traders, allowing them to focus on trading [14] - A variety of trading tools and resources are available, catering to different market conditions and enhancing user confidence [14][15] - The availability of educational resources, such as online tutorials and webinars, supports users in understanding forex trading concepts [14][15]
时隔两年逆周期因子归零!人民币缓升,美元进入长期熊市?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 12:34
Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) is primarily driven by market supply and demand, coinciding with a period of weakness for the US dollar, with expectations for the RMB to follow fluctuations in the dollar index [1][5]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of June 9, the USD/RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.1831, with the dollar index at 98.8, reflecting a nearly 10% decline from its recent peak [1]. - The RMB's central parity rate was reported at 7.1855, with the counter-cyclical factor's influence diminishing significantly, indicating a shift towards a more market-driven exchange rate [3]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts express a consensus that the US dollar is likely to remain weak, with potential further declines if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [1][5]. - Goldman Sachs projects a 3% appreciation of the RMB over the next 12 months, targeting an exchange rate of 7.0 [5]. Trade and Economic Indicators - China's exports in May grew by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 6.0%, while imports fell by 3.4%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [8]. - The decline in exports to the US has intensified, with a year-on-year drop of 35.2% in May, compared to a 20.9% decline in April [8]. Investment Trends - There is a growing interest from foreign investors in the Chinese stock market, particularly in sectors like new consumption, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals [9]. - Current allocations to China from global active long-term funds are underweight compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets benchmark, suggesting significant potential for increased investment [9]. Future Considerations - The future trajectory of the USD index, China's economic fundamentals, and capital inflows will be critical in determining the RMB's performance [8]. - The ongoing trade negotiations and their outcomes remain uncertain, which could impact market sentiment and currency valuations [8].