贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/10 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 4019.25 49.71 1571.00 1235.00 - 10867.50 变化 193.95 3.53 -18.00 -22.00 - 485.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 - 1.16 1.33 - - 变化 - -0.02 -0.01 - - 交 易 数 据 日期 COMEX白银 库存 上期所白银 库存 黄金ETF持仓 白银ETF持仓 上金所白银 库存 上金所黄金 递延费支付方向 上金所白银 递延费支付方向 最新 - 1186.85 1013.44 - - 1 1 变化 - -5.43 0.56 - - 0.00 0.00 贵 金 属 比 价 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 大类资产近期变动（2025/10/1-2025/10/7） 美股市场全线收涨，纳斯达克指数、道琼斯工业指数与标普500指数分别录得0.57%、0.44%和0.39%的 涨幅。行业层面，Wind美国一级行业中，医疗保健（3.73%）、公用事业（2.76%）与信息技术板块 （1.48%）表现领先，二级行业中煤炭Ⅱ（5.62%）、医药生物（4.90%）及钢铁Ⅱ板块（2.83%）涨幅 居前。欧洲市场同步走强，德国DAX30、英国富时100及法国CAC40指数分别上涨2.11%、1.42%、 1.00%。大宗商品方面，LME钴（11.33%）、LME铜（4.80%）、COMEX黄金（3.39%）领涨，而受 OPEC+ 10月进一步增产预期影响，布伦特原油与纽约期油跌幅靠前。汇率方面，截至10月7日，美元指 数收报98.58，周涨0.82%；美元兑离岸人民币报7.15，周涨0.25%。 科技利好不断，美股再创新高 宏观层面来看，美国政府于当地时间10月1日零点起正式进入停摆状态，9月ADP新增就业人数意外录得 负值，市场避险情绪升温，黄金价格创下历史新高。此次停摆的直接原因是共和党与民主党未能就新财 ...

国庆假期期间，受海外流动性宽松预期提振，外盘风险资产走势普遍受振，有色金属也全面飘红。其中 LME铜重心继续上移，一度升至108000美元附近，继续刷新去年5月下旬以来最高。尽管美元指数不断 反弹，但受美国政府停摆影响，美元信誉持续受损，难以对铜价走势形成更多拖累。而对全球铜矿脆弱 性的担忧继续笼罩铜市，叠加美联储降息预期的强化，期铜表现易涨难跌。 ADP就业数据减少 美联储降息预期升温 由于两党预算谈判破裂，美国政府自10月1日以来陷入停摆当中，国庆假期期间美国国会始终未就拨款 达成协议，导致美国非农在内的多个经济数据发布被迫延迟。但是素有小非农之称的美国民间就业数据 正常出炉，数据显示，美国9月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月来最大降幅，低于市场预期的 增加5万人，前值为增加5.4万人。由于就业数据表现疲弱，市场对于美联储年内继续降息两次的预期明 显抬升，投资者对于海外流动性持续宽松期待仍存，包括美股、贵金属等在内的风险资产走势受振，金 融属性较强的铜价表现同样强势。 值得注意的是，今年以来全球铜矿脆弱性持续暴露，导致国内冶炼厂与海外矿商的谈判愈发困难，不时 引发矿紧向冶炼端传导的担忧。而9 ...

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/09 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3825.30 46.18 1589.00 1257.00 62.37 10382.00 变化 -1.55 -0.77 37.00 -18.00 -1.08 118.00 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.82 1.17 1.34 147.93 1.80 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | 16491.06 | 1192.28 | 1012.88 | 15685.09 | - | 1 | 1 | | 变化 | -39.95 | 2.63 | 1.15 | 163.74 | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 贵 金 ...

国庆中秋长假期间，国际商品市场整体表现强势，贵金属涨势最为瞩目，有色金属也表现强劲，能化板 块则因原油价格下跌而承压。其中，贵金属成为假期外盘市场最大亮点，COMEX黄金价格首次触及 4000美元/盎司整数关口，COMEX白银价格逼近49美元/盎司，现货黄金同步创下历史新高。 受访人士认为，多重变量交织背景下，假期后国内商品市场或出现结构性分化走势。 综合假期外盘表现与当前市场环境，受访分析师普遍认为，长假后国内商品市场将迎来结构性分化格 局。投资者在把握利好的同时，需警惕部分品种的出现高开低走行情。 国贸期货宏观首席分析师郑建鑫认为，假期外盘表现强势的品种（如贵金属、有色金属），大概率会对 国内相关品种形成正面带动；基本面偏弱、与外盘联动性较低的品种，则可能延续调整行情，市场整体 将呈现"强者恒强、弱者仍弱"的分化特征。他建议聚焦"政策与旺季共振"板块：一方面，"反内卷"政策 有利于持续改善工业品供需结构，对黑色系商品带来直接提振；另一方面，进入传统"银十"旺季，终端 需求回暖有望与政策利好形成合力，推动相关品种价格走强。 假期期间，国际原油价格显著下跌。在郑建鑫看来，这可能会给国内能源化工板块带来利空影响 ...

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/30 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3826.85 46.95 1552.00 1275.00 63.45 10264.00 变化 57.00 1.95 47.00 41.00 -2.27 -7.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.93 1.17 1.34 148.61 - 变化 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.89 - 交 易 数 据 日期 COMEX白银 库存 上期所白银 库存 黄金ETF持仓 白银ETF持仓 上金所白银 库存 上金所黄金 递延费支付方向 上金所白银 递延费支付方向 最新 16531.01 1189.65 1011.73 15521.35 1252.41 1 1 变化 35.45 31.38 6.01 159.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 贵 金 属 比 价 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源：彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250928: Supply Concerns Dominate the Market, Shanghai Copper Expected to Fluctuate Strongly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Supply concerns dominate the market, and Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Grasberg copper mine shutdown drives up the market, and the copper spot premium/discount is under pressure to weaken [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation continued to narrow week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.44/ton week - on - week to - $40.36/ton, still low [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 86,500 tons week - on - week to 637,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in October is expected to continue to decline month - on - month [23] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [25] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased week - on - week, and the bonded area inventory decreased slightly week - on - week [26] - LME copper inventory continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, but the copper price soared, demand was suppressed, and new orders grew slowly [31] - From September 1st to 21st, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 10% year - on - year [34] - The production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to continue to decline slightly [35] - The production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in a detailed manner [41] - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [43] - The divergence on the Fed's interest rate cut path has intensified [46]

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3769.85, with a change of 39.10 [1] - London Silver latest price is 45.00, with a change of 0.06 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1505.00, with a change of 25.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1234.00, with a change of 8.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 65.72, with a change of 0.74 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 10271.50, with a change of -51.50 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver: no latest inventory data and change provided [2] - SHFE Silver latest inventory is 1158.27, with a change of 1.41 [2] - Gold ETF latest holding is 1005.72, with a change of 8.87 [2] - Silver ETF latest holding is 15361.84, with a change of -28.23 [2] - SGE Silver: no latest inventory data provided, and its deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] Other Market Data - US Dollar Index latest is 98.19, with a change of -0.27 [11] - EUR/USD latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [11] - GBP/USD latest is 1.34, with a change of 0.01 [11] - USD/JPY latest is 149.50, with a change of -0.30 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.82, with a change of 0.02 [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight decline in "buying" sentiment last week, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices remaining strong, rising over 6% and 2.5% respectively, indicating concentrated capital allocation in sectors like new energy batteries, energy storage, and semiconductors [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.21%, while the Shenzhen Index and ChiNext Index increased by 1.06% and 1.96% respectively, reflecting stability in large-cap stocks supported by heavyweight stocks [2] Industry Performance - The average decline of Wind's first-level industry indices was 0.24%, with 60% of the Wind Top 100 concept indices showing positive returns. The power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors performed well, increasing by 3.86%, 3.52%, and 3.51% respectively [2][10] - Conversely, sectors such as retail, comprehensive services, and social services saw significant declines, with drops of 4.32%, 4.61%, and 5.92% respectively [2] Fund Issuance - A total of 56 funds were issued last week, including 30 equity funds, 13 mixed funds, 6 bond funds, 1 QDII fund, and 6 FOF funds, with a total issuance of 36.607 billion units [3][15] Global Market Review - Global equity markets experienced a pullback, with concerns over high valuations in tech stocks affecting US markets. European markets also weakened, influenced by policy investigations in the healthcare sector and increasing fiscal sustainability concerns [4] - In Asia, the Nikkei 225 and Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index rose, while the Korean Composite Index and India's SENSEX30 fell due to geopolitical tensions and weak domestic economic data [4] Domestic Bond Market - The domestic bond market saw a slight decline in government bond futures, indicating a warming expectation for economic recovery. The convertible bond index rose by 0.94%, showing relative stability in the convertible bond market [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]