Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Greentown Management Holdings (9979.HK) with a current stock price of HKD 3.12 [1]. Core Views - The competitive landscape in the construction management industry is stabilizing, with a return to rational growth, presenting incremental opportunities. Despite increased competition and a decline in new contract signings for 2024, the market share of leading firms continues to expand, and the focus is shifting towards risk management and profitability [6][10]. - The company is experiencing positive operational signals, with a high dividend yield providing valuation support. The company has maintained a high payout ratio and is expected to implement interim dividends for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream property management companies [20][51]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction management industry is witnessing a return to rational competition, with the market stabilizing as new entrants have diminished. The focus is now on the leading firms, which are prioritizing risk control and profitability [6][10]. - Urban renewal and supportive policies for quality housing are expected to create structural growth opportunities within the industry, despite a current decline in single-unit construction fees [10][18]. Operational Performance - Greentown Management Holdings has a robust order book, with a total construction area of 12.65 million square meters as of the first half of 2025. The company has seen a year-on-year increase in new contract values and construction areas [20][23]. - The company’s cash flow is improving, with a significant increase in operating cash flow and a high cash reserve, allowing for a strong dividend policy [51][55]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 show a decline to HKD 29.94 billion, with a subsequent recovery expected in 2026 and 2027. The gross margin is anticipated to remain around 40% in 2025, with a potential increase in the following years [5][58]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to HKD 0.28, but the company is expected to recover to HKD 0.31 in 2026 and HKD 0.34 in 2027, reflecting its competitive advantages in the construction management sector [60].

Group 1 - Shaoxing Jiaojian Company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Greentown Management, focusing on construction management and consulting services [1][3] - Jinjian Group and China State Construction International City Construction Co., Ltd. also signed a strategic cooperation agreement to explore innovative models for high-quality development [2][3] - Jindi's Shenzhen regional company successfully won the bid for the demolition and resettlement housing project in Dongguan Dalang Town, marking its second resettlement housing project in Dongguan [4] Group 2 - Jindi Management's Wenzhou Future Summit project achieved the best opening record in Longgang City in the past three years, with a first opening sales of 1.67 billion [7] - Phoenix Zhituo successfully signed a comprehensive management service project for Ningde Huaxi Public House, aiming to create a demonstration of "four generations of housing" in Ningde City [5][6] - New City Construction Management's project in Cangzhou Yunxi Yingyue achieved strong sales of 1.67 billion during its first opening [1][8]

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 1.697 million shares on November 17, 2025, marking a decrease of 0.61% [1][2] - Over the past five trading days, there has been a cumulative net reduction of 3.592 million shares, with southbound funds reducing their holdings for five consecutive days [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings on 13 days, resulting in a total net reduction of 3.707 million shares [1][2] Group 2 - As of November 17, 2025, southbound funds hold 27.8 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, which represents 13.88% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] - Greentown Management Holdings primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services including project management and consulting [2]

Group 1 - Southbound funds reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 353,000 shares on November 14 [1] - Over the past five trading days, there have been five days of net reductions, totaling 2.67 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of net reductions, amounting to 1.30 million shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 280 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, representing 13.97% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - The company primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services [2] - The commercial construction management department focuses on providing property development management services to project owners [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the old housing renovation sector, highlighting significant growth opportunities driven by government policies and market demand [3][5]. Core Insights - The transition from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement" in urbanization is creating a historic opportunity for the construction industry, particularly in the context of old housing renovation [3][12]. - Central government policies are increasingly supporting self-renovation and original reconstruction of old housing, which is expected to enhance the market space for construction enterprises [4][5]. - Local governments are implementing specific policies to facilitate the renovation of old housing, focusing on resident participation and government guidance [6][8]. Summary by Sections National Policy Support - The central government has issued policies to support self-renovation and original reconstruction of old housing, emphasizing the importance of resident autonomy and market participation [4][5]. - Key policies include the inclusion of all old residential areas built before 2000 in the renovation scope, significantly expanding the market for construction companies [5]. Local Policy Implementation - Various regions have established policies to enhance project efficiency, focusing on the core logic of "resident主体, government guidance, and multi-party participation" [6][8]. - Specific local policies have been enacted to clarify the renovation scope and implementation standards, directly releasing regional construction demand [9][10]. Market Opportunities for Construction Enterprises - The shift towards self-renovation and original reconstruction is releasing substantial market space, with construction enterprises positioned as key players in connecting policy implementation with resident needs [13]. - The report highlights the need for construction companies to develop comprehensive service models that address the complexities of self-renovation projects [14][18]. Strategic Recommendations for Construction Enterprises - Construction enterprises are advised to establish a full-cycle comprehensive service model, integrating consulting, financing, construction, and operation [14][18]. - It is recommended to coordinate resources to address funding challenges, leveraging government, resident, and social capital to support project financing [18][21]. - Focus should be placed on key regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, where policies are advanced and demand is high [22][24].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds have reduced their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 487,000 shares on November 12, 2025, marking a trend of net reductions over the past trading days [1] - Over the last five trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings for four days, with a total net reduction of 2,229,000 shares [1] - In the last twenty trading days, there were ten days of net increases in holdings, totaling 639,000 shares [1] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 280 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, accounting for 14.01% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] - The company primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other project management services [2] - Greentown Management Holdings operates mainly in the domestic market of China [2]

Group 1 - China State Construction Dongfu and Greentown Real Estate Consulting Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance collaboration in urban services and smart community construction [1] - Jin Di Shang Zhi's East China regional company successfully secured four entrusted construction projects, showcasing its growing influence in the market [3] - Xuhui Construction Management signed a full-process construction management service for a premium land parcel in Shijiazhuang, indicating its commitment to high-quality project delivery [4] Group 2 - The Jiangyin Dongling Mansion project has consistently topped sales charts, demonstrating strong market demand and effective project execution [6] - The total construction area for the newly won residential project in Kunshan is approximately 25,000 square meters, reflecting the company's expanding project portfolio [3] - The Red Bridge District's residential project, part of the "Shaogongzhuang South Smart Elderly Care Urban Renewal Project Phase I," is set to introduce a high-quality low-density residential area [4] Group 3 - The industry has seen the release of the first comprehensive capability evaluation standard for construction enterprises, indicating a move towards standardized practices [8] - In the third quarter, Xuhui Construction Management expanded its project portfolio by 17 new projects, while Greentown Management delivered over ten projects, highlighting active market engagement [8]

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in Greentown Management Holdings (09979.HK) by 18,000 shares on November 6, 2025, marking a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - Over the past 5 trading days, there were 2 days of net reductions totaling 95,000 shares, while in the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of net increases totaling 3.889 million shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 283 million shares of Greentown Management Holdings, accounting for 14.12% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Company Overview - Greentown Management Holdings Limited primarily provides construction management services through three departments: commercial construction management, government construction management, and other services [2] - The commercial construction management department focuses on providing property development management services to project owners [2] - The government construction management department is involved in property development management services for government-related housing and public infrastructure projects [2] - The other services department offers project management, architectural design, and consulting services for various government projects [2] - The company mainly operates in the domestic market of China [2]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a transformation, with construction agency services becoming a significant direction for companies, leading to accelerated expansion among leading construction firms [1][2] - The competition in the construction agency sector is intensifying, prompting companies to adhere to long-term strategies rather than pursuing blind scale expansion [1][4] Industry Overview - The overall scale of construction agency services has significantly increased, with six leading companies adding over 10 million square meters of new construction agency scale in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The top 20 construction agency firms saw a year-on-year increase of 31% in new signed construction area, totaling 15,771 million square meters [2] - Green City Management leads the sector with over 2,700 million square meters of new construction area, approximately double that of the second-ranked firm [2] Types of Construction Agency Services - Construction agency services are categorized into government, commercial, and capital agency types, each serving different market needs [3] - Government agency services focus on public projects such as affordable housing and schools, while commercial agency services are the most prevalent, providing management services to clients lacking development capabilities [3] - Capital agency services are the most complex, often involving financial institutions to manage distressed assets [3] Competitive Landscape - The competition among construction agency firms is becoming more specialized, with companies focusing on niche markets to establish differentiated advantages [4] - Recent government policies have increased the precision and detail of construction agency regulations, raising the professional requirements for firms [4][5] - Companies are encouraged to broaden their focus to include urban renewal projects and affordable housing, as these areas present significant opportunities [5] Strategic Recommendations - Firms are advised to deepen their engagement in specialized fields and enhance service quality to achieve sustainable growth [5][6] - Emphasis on long-term strategies, project fulfillment rates, and client satisfaction is crucial for success in a competitive environment [5][7] - Companies should innovate their business models and explore high-value, high-barrier niche markets to avoid price competition [5][6] Emerging Trends - The shift towards managing distressed assets reflects a broader change in the real estate industry's underlying logic, moving from new development to revitalizing existing assets [6][7] - The "guarantee delivery" policy has created substantial demand for professional intervention in construction and delivery projects, providing clear business opportunities for capable construction agencies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Greentown Management is actively engaging with investors to showcase its capabilities in revitalizing troubled projects, particularly highlighted by the Wuhan Guihu Cloud Cuit project, amidst a challenging environment in the construction industry marked by increased competition and declining management fees [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Position - Greentown Management achieved a new contract signing area of 27.9 million square meters and a contract sales amount of 70.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, leading the industry in both metrics [3][5]. - The company has repurchased 10 million shares since August 29, with a total expenditure of approximately 30.67 million Hong Kong dollars, reflecting confidence in its own value and enhancing earnings per share by reducing the number of shares in circulation [3][5]. - Greentown Management has maintained a market share of over 20% for nine consecutive years, indicating strong brand recognition and customer trust in its performance and product quality [5][7]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company operates in 132 major cities across 30 provinces, ensuring risk diversification and revenue certainty, which is crucial during periods of market instability [7]. - Greentown Management's brand trust is exemplified by its selection as the contractor for the Wuhan Guihu Cloud Cuit project, demonstrating its ability to meet the core needs of revitalizing distressed properties [8][9]. - The company has established a three-dimensional business matrix encompassing government, commercial, and financial construction, which enhances its resilience against market fluctuations [11][12]. Group 3: Efficiency and Operational Strategy - Greentown Management has developed a "Seven Dragon Pearl" capability system to enhance efficiency across various operational dimensions, addressing the challenges posed by declining management fees [15][16]. - The company reported a 45% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow for the first half of 2025, attributed to systematic control measures and digital transformation efforts [18]. - The successful execution of the Wuhan Guihu Cloud Cuit project serves as a case study for the company's operational efficiency, showcasing its ability to reduce costs while enhancing project value [16][18]. Group 4: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - Greentown Management has received over 30 industry top honors and has published the first comprehensive evaluation standard for construction companies, contributing to the establishment of quality benchmarks in the industry [20][22]. - The company's approach of combining scale, diversity, and efficiency is setting a new standard for high-quality development in the construction industry, reflecting a long-term commitment to excellence [22].