Group 1 - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) in China remained stable at 89.0 in July, unchanged from June [1] - In July, the funding index and input index increased by 0.2 points and 0.1 points respectively compared to June, while the comprehensive operation index and efficiency index remained flat [1] - The construction, transportation, real estate, social services, information transmission software, and accommodation and catering industries showed significant increases in their development indices, rising by 0.6, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, and 0.3 points respectively [1] Group 2 - The development environment for small and medium enterprises in China is stabilizing, with improved funding conditions and reduced operational cost pressures [2] - There is an increasing willingness for investment among enterprises, supported by effective macroeconomic policies [2] - Future efforts will focus on deepening economic reforms, stimulating domestic demand, and supporting innovation and efficiency improvements in private and small enterprises [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) for July remains stable at 89.0, unchanged from the previous month [1] Industry Summary - The index shows a positive trend in various sectors, with 6 industries experiencing growth and 2 industries seeing a decline [1] - Notable increases were observed in the construction, transportation, real estate, social services, information transmission software, and accommodation and catering industries, with respective increases of 0.6, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, and 0.3 points [1] - The industrial and wholesale retail sectors experienced slight declines of 0.2 and 0.1 points, respectively [1] - Overall, the operational status of the industries is improving [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in Q2 2025 met market expectations, but the fixed - asset investment, social consumption, and real estate sectors faced challenges. The export and industrial added - value in June exceeded expectations. The domestic real estate market continued to decline, and the Chinese economy may face challenges in maintaining rapid growth in the second half of the year, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand. The "anti - involution" policies may have a more moderate and long - term impact. Policy decisions may be made based on economic changes, and new policies may be introduced at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter [84]. Summary by Related Content GDP and Industry Contribution - In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, meeting market expectations. The GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The primary, secondary, and tertiary industries grew 3.8%, 4.8%, and 5.7% year - on - year respectively in Q2. The contributions of the three industries to GDP in Q2 were 4.6%, 34.2%, and 61.2% respectively [4][6]. GDP Growth Contribution Factors - In Q2 2025, the contributions of final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net exports of goods and services to GDP growth were 52.3%, 24.7%, and 23.0% respectively [9]. GDP Deflator - The GDP deflator in Q2 2025 decreased 1.20% year - on - year, showing a negative growth for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023 [12]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In the first half of 2025, the national fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.7%. General infrastructure investment (including power) grew 8.9% year - on - year, while narrow infrastructure investment (excluding power) grew 4.6% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment grew 7.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 11.2% year - on - year [15]. Real Estate Market - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 3.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 5.5% year - on - year. In June, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased 0.7% month - on - month, and those in second - and third - tier cities decreased 0.6% month - on - month. In July, the decline rate of national new housing sales area accelerated [18][21][23]. Social Consumption - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.6%. The growth rates of most categories of consumer goods in units above the designated size decreased compared with May [26][28]. Service Industry - In June 2025, the service industry production index grew 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rates of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries were relatively high [30]. Foreign Trade - In June 2025, China's exports in US dollars grew 5.8% year - on - year, and imports grew 1.1% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. In July, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, and the decline of the US - West route was faster [33][36][38]. Industrial Sector - In June 2025, the added - value of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew 6.8% year - on - year, exceeding the market expectation. The product sales rate was 94.3%, and the industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 was 74.0% [41][43][45]. Employment and Prices - In June 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%. The CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year. In July, agricultural product prices hovered at a low level, and the average domestic gasoline price was higher than that in June [47][49][57]. Manufacturing and Non - Manufacturing PMI - In July 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%. The manufacturing production continued to expand, while the demand re - entered the contraction range. The service industry activity expectation index increased slightly [68][71][81].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of 31 provinces in China for the first half of the year shows significant competition, particularly between Hubei and Henan, with Hubei rapidly closing the economic gap [1][2]. Economic Performance - Henan's GDP reached 31,683.80 billion yuan, growing by 5.7%, while Hubei's GDP was 29,642.61 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2%, indicating Hubei's faster growth compared to Henan [1][2]. - The economic gap between Hubei and Henan has significantly narrowed over the past two years, from 5,066.78 billion yuan in 2023 to 2,041.19 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. Investment and Consumption - Hubei's fixed asset investment grew by 6.5%, surpassing the national average of 3.7%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 12.5% [4]. - Hubei's retail sales reached 13,073.93 billion yuan, growing by 6.9%, which is higher than the national average [4]. Trade Performance - Hubei's total import and export volume exceeded 400 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 402.31 billion yuan, with exports growing by 38.5% [5]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 26.8%, accounting for 50.7% of total exports [5]. Henan's Economic Characteristics - Henan's economy showed "three fasts and two stability" in the first half of the year, with industrial output, fixed asset investment, and retail sales all experiencing significant growth [6][7]. - The industrial production in Henan grew by 8.4%, with nearly 80% of industries maintaining growth [6].

Economic Overview - Shanghai's GDP reached 2.62 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The city's industrial added value increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with the tertiary sector's added value growing by 5.4%, accounting for 79.1% of GDP [1] - Total fixed asset investment rose by 6.2% year-on-year, with major projects completing 50.9% of their annual plans [1] Consumer Market - Social retail sales in Shanghai grew by 1.7% year-on-year, driven by policies and activities [2] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program directly boosted social consumption by over 54 billion yuan [2] - International tourist arrivals reached 4.248 million, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [2] Trade and Foreign Investment - Total goods import and export volume was 2.15 trillion yuan, up 2.4% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 11.1% [2] - Private enterprises' import and export volume grew by 23.6%, accounting for 38.1% of the total [2] - Actual foreign investment in Shanghai decreased by 16.4%, but manufacturing and business services saw significant increases of 48.7% and 47.7% respectively [2] Economic Challenges - The external environment remains uncertain, with challenges such as slowing global economic growth and trade risks [3] - There is a notable issue of insufficient demand, particularly in consumer spending, and increased competition in certain industries [3] - Employment stability is under pressure, with decreased recruitment demand in some sectors [3] Strategic Focus for Development - Shanghai's economic development will focus on five key areas: national strategy, industrial upgrading, demand support, innovation drive, and livelihood security [3] - Plans include accelerating the construction of "five centers" and implementing a new round of "Shanghai Plan" for leading industries [4] - Emphasis on enhancing industrial growth, supporting the transformation of the construction industry, and promoting high-quality development in technology services [4] Innovation and Technology - Shanghai aims to strengthen its international technology innovation center and focus on breakthrough technologies [5] - Plans to enhance the functions of professional incubators and implement high-quality concept verification platforms [5] - Initiatives to cultivate leading technology enterprises and accelerate the development of high-growth companies are in place [5]

Economic Overview - Shanghai's GDP reached 2.62 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The city's industrial added value increased by 5.1% year-on-year, while the tertiary industry's added value grew by 5.4%, accounting for 79.1% of GDP [1] Investment and Consumption - Total fixed asset investment in Shanghai grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with major projects completing 50.9% of their annual plans [2] - Social retail sales increased by 1.7% year-on-year, with consumption subsidies driving over 54 billion yuan in social consumption [2] - International tourism saw 4.25 million inbound visitors, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [2] Trade Performance - Shanghai's total import and export volume reached 2.15 trillion yuan, growing by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 11.1% [2] - Exports to non-U.S. markets rose by 16.1%, and trade with Belt and Road countries, ASEAN, and BRICS members grew by 11.8%, 10.9%, and 16.5% respectively [2] - Private enterprises' imports and exports increased by 23.6%, accounting for 38.1% of the city's total [2] Foreign Investment - Actual foreign investment in Shanghai decreased by 16.4% year-on-year, although manufacturing and business services saw increases of 48.7% and 47.7% respectively [2] - The city added 30 new regional headquarters for multinational companies and 19 foreign R&D centers, totaling 1,046 and 610 respectively [2] Strategic Focus for Future Development - Shanghai's economic development will focus on five key areas: national strategy, industrial upgrading, demand support, innovation-driven growth, and livelihood security [3] - The city plans to enhance its "five centers" construction and implement a new round of pilot programs for service industry expansion [3][4] - Emphasis will be placed on investment in key industries and regions, supporting industrial growth, and promoting high-quality development in technology and service sectors [4][5] Innovation and Technology - Shanghai aims to strengthen its international technology innovation center and focus on cutting-edge and disruptive technologies [5] - Plans include enhancing incubator functions and establishing high-quality concept verification platforms to support the growth of leading technology enterprises [5]

Economic Impact of Geopolitical Fragmentation - The 2007-2008 financial crisis marked a significant turning point in globalization, leading to increased geopolitical fragmentation since 1975[2] - Geopolitical fragmentation index shows that a one standard deviation negative shock can reduce global GDP by approximately -0.4%, peaking within one to two years[5] - Emerging economies, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are more severely impacted by external shocks compared to developed regions[5] Sectoral and Regional Variations - Industries closely tied to global markets, such as manufacturing and finance, face the most significant disruptions due to geopolitical risks[5] - The spillover effects of geopolitical factors are most pronounced in the US-EU region, affecting global economic dynamics[5] - In contrast, sectors like agriculture and real estate, which are more localized, experience relatively minor impacts[5] Innovation as a Response to Geopolitical Risks - Higher exposure to external political risks correlates with increased innovation activities, such as patent filings and R&D spending[8] - Private sector initiatives drive innovation in response to geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the importance of market incentives[8] - Medium-innovation firms, which are sensitive to external risks, tend to increase R&D efforts more than both high-tech giants and low-innovation firms[8] Long-term Implications for Economic Growth - Strengthening domestic innovation capabilities can help mitigate risks associated with global supply chains and enhance resilience[8] - Countries that can achieve technological advancements and industry upgrades within a regional framework are likely to excel in future global competition[8]

Group 1: Impact of Geopolitical Factors on Global Economy - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown in globalization and an increase in regionalization due to complex geopolitical situations, with innovation and technology development becoming key for sustainable growth amid uncertainty [1][2][3] - The 2007-2008 financial crisis marked a significant turning point in globalization, revealing deep-seated issues in the global financial system and prompting a reevaluation of the sustainability of economic integration [3][4] - Geopolitical fragmentation has a measurable negative impact on global GDP, estimated at approximately -0.4% for a one standard deviation negative shock, peaking within one to two years [7][8] Group 2: Sectoral and Regional Disparities - Different sectors experience varying degrees of impact from geopolitical factors, with industries closely tied to global markets (e.g., manufacturing, finance, wholesale and retail) facing the most severe disruptions [8][11] - Emerging economies, such as those in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are more vulnerable to external shocks due to their reliance on global market openness and cross-border capital flows [8][11] - The spillover effects of geopolitical factors are most pronounced in the US-EU bloc, while the China-Russia bloc exhibits more regional impacts with limited international market influence [7][8] Group 3: Innovation as a Response to Geopolitical Risks - Increasing innovation capacity and industrial autonomy is crucial for mitigating geopolitical risks and enhancing resilience against global uncertainties [2][11] - Industries exposed to higher external political risks tend to exhibit greater innovation activities, driven primarily by the private sector rather than government or academic institutions [11][12] - The interaction between trade barriers and political risks significantly promotes innovation, particularly among medium-innovation firms that are sensitive to external risks [12][14] Group 4: Future Outlook for Emerging Markets - Enhancing technological innovation and industrial transformation is essential for emerging markets to improve economic performance and international competitiveness [14] - Economies that can achieve technological advancement and industrial upgrades within a regional framework are likely to excel in future global competition, achieving high-quality sustainable growth [14]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Province's electricity consumption in the first half of the year reached 156.96 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, indicating a stable and improving economic performance [1][3] Group 1: Electricity Consumption by Sector - The first sector's electricity consumption was 1.40 billion kWh, up 6.81% year-on-year [1] - The second sector's electricity consumption was 1,126 billion kWh, increasing by 5.05% year-on-year [1] - The third sector's electricity consumption was 254.67 billion kWh, with a growth of 12.18% year-on-year [1] - Residential electricity consumption reached 174.9 billion kWh, growing by 6.29% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industrial Electricity Consumption - Industrial electricity consumption increased by 5.17% year-on-year, reflecting the acceleration of transformation and upgrading [2] - Electricity consumption in the non-ferrous metal mining and selection industry grew by 23.97%, while the petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries saw a 16.41% increase [2] - The coal mining and washing industry experienced a 7.98% rise in electricity consumption [2] - The photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing industry saw a significant increase of 671.83% in electricity consumption [2] Group 3: Growth in New Energy and Services - New energy vehicle manufacturing, medical instrument manufacturing, urban rail transit equipment manufacturing, and instrument manufacturing experienced electricity consumption growth rates of 197.09%, 36.5%, 27.2%, and 25.63% respectively [2] - The service sector's electricity consumption grew by 12.48%, with internet data services increasing by 43.28% [2] - The charging and swapping service industry saw a remarkable increase of 91.1% in electricity consumption due to the promotion of heavy-duty electric vehicle policies and the popularity of residential new energy vehicles [2] - The tourism industry grew by 14.78%, positively impacting wholesale and retail electricity consumption, which increased by 27.8% [2]

Economic Growth - Shandong's GDP grew by 5.6% in the first half of the year, surpassing the target of 5% set by the provincial government [3] - The growth is attributed to a comprehensive approach to economic development, focusing on agriculture, industry, and services [1][2] Agriculture - Shandong achieved a summer grain yield of 452.8 kg per mu, ranking first in the country, with a total production of 54.74 billion jin, an increase of 4.1 billion jin year-on-year [1] - The province has established high-standard farmland demonstration zones, contributing to a stable coverage rate of improved crop varieties at over 98% by the end of 2024 [1] Industry - The province is implementing a major industrial economic initiative, aiming for over 60% of advanced capacity in key industries by 2027 [2] - Efforts are being made to enhance the modern industrial system and promote high-quality development [2] Services - Shandong is focusing on developing modern service industries, including information services and logistics cost reduction initiatives [2] - The government is promoting the growth of leading wholesale and retail enterprises [2] Investment and Consumption - The provincial government plans to launch 15,000 key projects and around 4,000 annual projects to support investment and growth [2] - Initiatives to boost consumption include the "2025 New Year Consumption Season" and a comprehensive plan to stimulate consumer spending [2] Foreign Trade - Shandong is actively promoting its products in global markets, exporting to 242 countries and regions, an increase of 10 compared to the previous year [3] - The province is diversifying its export markets and enhancing the "Shandong Good Products" brand [3]