2025 年 07 月 15 日 开源晨会 0715 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 1.226 | | 综合 | 1.043 | | 公用事业 | 1.035 | | 家用电器 | 1.018 | | 石油石化 | 0.856 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 房地产 | -1.294 | | 传媒 | -1.239 | | 非银金融 | -1.031 | | 商贸零售 | -0.940 | | 计算机 | -0.880 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 行业公司 【机械】特斯拉机器人换帅背后：进入关键调整期，为量产保驾护航——行业点 评报告-20250714 【公用事业】绿电消纳考核范围拓宽，有望持续提升绿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [4][22]. Core Insights - The construction of zero-carbon parks is being accelerated, with the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights expected by 2025 [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing responsibility weights for renewable energy consumption across various provinces, with most provinces expected to exceed 20% by 2025 [17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating renewable energy development with energy management systems to achieve carbon neutrality [22][23]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82%, while the public utility index increased by 1.11% and the environmental index by 3.17% [1][24]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 0.41%, hydropower by 0.42%, and renewable energy generation by 1.05% [1][25]. Important Policies and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Energy Administration issued a notice to accelerate the transformation of energy structures in parks and promote energy conservation and carbon reduction [15][16]. - Hainan Province's implementation plan for market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid prices includes a pricing structure for existing projects and competitive bidding for new projects [16] . Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability [3][22]. - In the environmental sector, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [23][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.62 in 2025 [8]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and 0.85 in 2025 [8]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.50 in 2025 [8]. Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - The report notes that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [23]. - The report also highlights the potential for domestic waste oil recycling companies to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy [23]. Industry Key Data Overview - In May, the industrial power generation increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total of 737.8 billion kWh generated [49][60]. - The total electricity consumption in May reached 809.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.43% [57][60].

行 业 研 究 2025 年 07 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 电力 沪深300 相关研究报告 《水电商业模式稳定，低利率时代价 值凸显—行业投资策略》-2025.5.31 《高耗能行业绿电消纳要求有望提振 绿 电 环 境 价 值 — 行 业 投 资 策 略 》 -2025.5.18 《电力供需转向宽松，重视盈利稳定 品种—电力行业 2025 中期投资策略》 -2025.5.7 绿电消纳考核范围拓宽，有望持续提升绿电环境溢价 ——行业投资策略 | 周磊（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | zhoulei1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524090002 | 证书编号：S0790125070014 | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070014 消纳责任完成情况衔接 136 号机制电量，考核范围拓宽至钢铁等重点行业 2025 年 7 月，国家 ...

为应对新能源发电的随机性、波动性与间歇性，尤其是光伏发电集中在午间，导致午间电力供应大幅增 加、价格明显降低，而晚高峰电价较高时段却几乎没有发电出力的问题，"136号文"引导建立了新能源 可持续发展价格结算机制，即场外差价结算机制。纳入该机制的电量实行"多退少补"差价补偿，即当市 场交易均价低于机制电价时，由电网企业给予差价补偿；当市场交易均价高于机制电价时，则扣除差 价。通过这种方式，为新能源企业提供了相对稳定的收益预期，促进了行业的平稳健康发展。 胜利油田电力技术专家严川接受行业媒体采访时表示，"老人老办法、新人新办法"，只是给存量项目一 个过渡期，保障前期的投资免遭重大损失，一旦收回投资回报，最终要全量入市。他呼吁，新能源发电 企业应尽快摒弃对政策的依赖和迷恋，不要再抱有幻想。 "聚焦新能源"系列报道之一 编者按："双碳"目标下，新能源产业和电力市场的风吹草动时刻牵动着大宗商品市场敏感的神经。今年 6月，新能源电价全面进入市场化时代。失去了"保量保价"的政策保护，新能源产业会走向何方？电力 现货交易市场将受到哪些影响？新能源企业面临哪些机遇和挑战？期货日报大宗商品周刊推出系列报 道，梳理电价市场化改革的 ...

三大电力公司是我国电网智能监测产品的重要供应商，主要提供故障录波监测 装备、输电线路故障监测装置以及时间同步装置等产品。公司还布局了新能源 充电桩和储能产品。三大电力是国内最早进入电力系统监测领域的企业之一， 产品覆盖输电、变电、配电、用电多个应用场景，并与国家电网和南方电网及 主要发电集团建立了长期稳定的合作关系，涵盖国内主要省市区域。 从市场容 量来看，根据公司招股书中的预测，变电侧市场容量约为 20 亿元，而输配侧 市场容量在 290 亿至 380 亿元之间。公司的第一大股东是山东大学 100%控 股的山大资本，公司依托山东大学深厚的科研背景和早期业务拓展经验，与国 家电网建立了稳定合作关系。最新报告期内，国网贡献了公司总收入的近七成。 新股探寻（山大电力、技源集团、华电新能）20250611 华电新能是中国华电唯一风光电业务整合平台，装机容量排名国内前列。 募资 182 亿元投入风电及光伏基地建设。2022 至 2024 年营收年增速 稳定在 15%左右，归母净利润总体保持稳定。 华电新能预计 2025-2026 年完工项目装机容量超 1,700 万千瓦。公司 实控人华电已取得多个清洁能源基地开发权， ...

转自：北京日报客户端 驱漂浮式海上风电机组下线。华能清能院供图 这一海上"超大风车"究竟有多大？此次下线的"中国华能—东方电气17兆瓦直驱漂浮式海上风电机组"叶 轮直径为262米，风轮扫风面积约5.3万平方米，相当于7.5个标准足球场的面积，轮毂中心高度约152 米，相当于50层居民楼高度。不仅个头大，这一"超大风车"的时间可利用率还达到99%以上，同时可应 对超24米超高海浪，抵御17级超强台风。 垂直轴风 机与光伏组件共结构融合平台。华能清能院供图 未来科学城"能源谷"又有重磅创新！记者7月13日从未来科学城管委会获悉，由"能源谷"入驻企业中国 华能清洁能源技术研究院牵头研发的全球单机功率和风轮直径最大的直驱型漂浮式海上风电机组近日在 福建下线，单机功率达17兆瓦。 据悉，这一风电机组由中国华能牵头，联合中国东方电气集团共同研制，首次采用国产化大直径主轴轴 承，叶片、发电机、变流器、变压器等关键部件也全部实现国产化。研发团队还成功突破漂浮式风电系 统耦合仿真技术及高保真模型试验技术，攻克了叶片、低速永磁直驱电机高精度制造与装配工艺难题。 17兆瓦直 除了此次下线的"超大风车"，近年来，华能清洁能源技术研究 ...

行情回顾： ◼ 本周（7.07-7.11）上证综指上涨 1.09%，创业板指上涨 2.36%。碳中和板块上涨 3.52%，环保板块上涨 3.07%， 公用事业板块上涨 1.28%，煤炭板块下跌 0.82%。 每周专题： 行业要闻： 投资建议： ◼ 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好地区的火电企业，如皖能电力、 华电国际。水电：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。新能源发电：建议关注新能源龙头龙源电力（H）。核电： 建议关注电价市场化占比提升背景下，核电龙头企业中国核电。 风险提示： 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 英国容量市场拍卖如何确定目标容量？为了平衡经济性和可靠性目标，英国容量市场根据电力用户的失负荷价 值和系统可靠性供应的新建机组成本计算系统可靠性目标。电力调度机构根据系统可靠性目标，采用 Least Worst Regret 模型计算出拍卖目标容量，并基于此构建容量需求曲线。 ◼ 参与拍卖的"有效容量"是如何确定的？所谓有效容量，即根据各类发电技术的具体可用性对供电能力进行调 整后的装机容量。英国容量市场采用增量等效可靠容量法（Incremental Equiva ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a transitional pricing scheme for renewable energy grid connection in Zhejiang Province, which will be in effect until the new market-oriented pricing reform is introduced [1][2][10]. Summary by Sections Transitional Pricing Scheme - The transitional period for the pricing scheme is from June 1, 2025, until the new market-oriented pricing reform is implemented [3][9]. - For existing projects (those fully operational before June 1, 2025), the current pricing policies and market rules will continue to apply [3][9]. - For new projects (those fully operational on or after June 1, 2025), the pricing will be set at 90% of the coal-fired power benchmark price plus 10% based on the real-time spot market price, differentiated by wind and solar categories [4][9]. Definition of Full Capacity Connection - The determination of full capacity connection time for projects requiring a power business license will be based on the date indicated on the license; for multiple units, the date of the last unit's connection will be used [4][9]. - For projects not requiring a power business license, the first connection time recorded by the grid company will be used [4][9]. Green Power Trading - All types of renewable energy projects, including new projects, can participate in green power trading and settlement according to existing market rules [5][9].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Beijing Keri Group Co., Ltd. has approved guarantees for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Gu'an Keri New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., for a distributed photovoltaic power generation project loan and for Hunan Changda Transmission and Transformation Construction Co., Ltd. for a project performance guarantee [1][2][6]. Guarantee Overview - The company will provide a joint liability guarantee for Gu'an Keri's loan for the cloud valley (Gu'an) technology company's distributed photovoltaic power generation project, with a guarantee amount not exceeding RMB 13.6 million, valid for 9 years from the board's approval date [1][2]. - A performance guarantee of up to RMB 780,000 will be provided for Hunan Changda's project, with a guarantee period of 6 months after the completion of the main debt obligations [2][4]. Financial Details - The total assets of Gu'an Keri as of June 30, 2025, are RMB 9,369.51 million, with total liabilities of RMB 6,301.83 million, resulting in net assets of RMB 3,019.43 million [3][4]. - Hunan Changda's total assets as of March 31, 2025, are RMB 9,078.79 million, with total liabilities of RMB 7,663.14 million, resulting in net assets of RMB 2,887.39 million [4][5]. Board's Opinion - The board believes that the guarantees are necessary to support the operational development of Gu'an Keri and that the financial risks are manageable, ensuring that the interests of the listed company and all shareholders are not compromised [6][8]. - The board has authorized the chairman or designated personnel to handle the guarantee matters and sign relevant contracts with financial institutions [6][8]. Compliance and Oversight - The guarantees comply with the Company Law and relevant regulations, and there are no overdue guarantee issues as of the resolution date, with the total external guarantees amounting to RMB 58.96 million, which is 3.49% of the latest audited net assets [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The annual report of Liaoning Shenhua Holdings Co., Ltd. for 2024 indicates a significant recovery in net profit, despite a decline in revenue, highlighting the company's strategic adjustments and operational improvements in a challenging market environment [1][3]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38,598,756.24 yuan for 2024, a 119.42% increase from a loss of 198,775,447.12 yuan in 2023 [2][3]. - Total revenue for 2024 was 4,193,384,127.55 yuan, down 18.43% from 5,140,865,960.51 yuan in 2023 [2][3]. - The company's net assets at the end of the reporting period were 820,890,018.67 yuan, reflecting a 4.75% increase from 783,694,608.57 yuan in 2023 [2][3]. Business Performance - The automotive sales segment generated revenue of 41.44 billion yuan, maintaining stable sales despite market pressures [3][4]. - The company implemented measures such as optimizing vehicle structure and sales rhythm, which contributed to the reduction of losses and improved profitability [3][4]. - The company successfully cleared nine subsidiaries, recovering approximately 30 million yuan through asset management [3][4]. Industry Context - The automotive industry in China faced challenges, with total vehicle production and sales declining by 7.5% in 2024, while new energy vehicle sales reached 12.9 million units, accounting for 40.93% of total sales [5][6]. - The market for office buildings in Shanghai remains under pressure, with a shift towards high-quality projects and flexible office spaces expected to continue [6][7]. Competitive Advantages - The company is one of the largest BMW dealers in China, operating 14 BMW 4S stores, which positions it favorably in the automotive market [7][8]. - The company has enhanced the operational quality of its financial building, maintaining stable occupancy rates despite a sluggish market [7][8]. Financial Analysis - The company’s operating expenses decreased due to effective cost management, with sales expenses down by 17.12% and management expenses reduced by 7.41% [8][9]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 11.85% to 73,781,875.19 yuan, attributed to improved management of receivables [8][9].