证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 百胜中国（09987.HK） 优于大市 同店收入连续 3 季度正增，2026 年门店扩张提速 2025Q4 归母净利润同增 22%。2025Q4，公司实现收入 28.23 亿美元/+8.8%； 实现经营利润 1.87 亿美元/+23.8%；归母净利润 1.40 亿美元/+21.7%； EPS 为 0.40 美元。分品牌看，2025Q4，肯德基分部收入 21.25 亿美元 /+8.75%；经营利润 2.23 亿美元/+16.1%；经营利润率为 10.5%/+0.7pct。 必胜客分部收入 5.40 亿美元/+5.9%；经营利润 2000 万美元/+42.9%； 经营利润率为 3.7%，同比+1.0pct。分渠道看，外卖收入同增 34%，增 速环比继续上行，餐厅收入占比已达到 53%。 外卖占比提升人工成本上行，餐厅利润率表现优秀。2025Q4，薪金及雇员 福利占比约 29.3%，同比+1.1pct，外卖收入占比提升致外卖骑手成本上 升影响为主；食品及原材料占比为 31.7%，同比-0.2pct；物业租金及其 他经营开支占比约 26.0%，同比-1.6pct，公司餐厅利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China [5] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of $2.8 billion in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 9%, exceeding expectations. For the full year 2025, revenue reached $11.8 billion, up 4% year-over-year [1] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 8% based on the current market capitalization [1] - The company is expected to continue expanding its store network, with over 1,900 new stores planned for 2026, increasing the proportion of franchise stores from 37% to a target of 40-50% [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the operating profit was $187 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $140 million, up 22% year-over-year [1] - For the full year 2025, the operating profit was $1.29 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $929 million, a 2% increase year-over-year [1] - The company expects revenues for 2026-2028 to be $12.36 billion, $13.15 billion, and $13.97 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $1.003 billion, $1.096 billion, and $1.188 billion [4] Operational Efficiency - The profit margins for KFC and Pizza Hut improved in Q4 2025, with KFC at 14.0% and Pizza Hut at 9.9%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points respectively [2] - The company has been focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a management expense ratio of 4.9% for the full year 2025, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [2]

Group 1 - The Beijing urban sub-center cultural tourism area is enhancing the festive atmosphere ahead of the Spring Festival with various activities at attractions like Universal Resort and Bay Area Commercial Entertainment Complex [1][2] - Universal Resort is hosting the "Universal Chinese New Year" event, featuring a special performance titled "Reunion!" that combines traditional Chinese arts with international elements, providing a unique experience for visitors [1] - The Bay Area International Commercial Entertainment Complex is offering a themed experience called "Come to Bay Area, Celebrate Chinese New Year," including interactive sessions with intangible cultural heritage practitioners [1] Group 2 - Crowne Plaza Hotel in Tongzhou is launching multiple New Year's Eve dinner packages and special spring-themed dining options across its restaurants, enhancing the overall guest experience [2] - The hotel will also host a "New Year Blessing and Joyful Garden" event, featuring activities for children such as making dumplings and DIY lucky bags during the first week of the New Year [2] Group 3 - The Jianguo Hotel (Universal Store) has started accepting reservations for New Year's Eve dinners and is offering a "private chef at home" service, indicating a focus on personalized dining experiences [3] - The urban sub-center is developing a vibrant cultural tourism experience with new projects like the Top Park and Beijing Haichang Ocean Park, which are expected to boost consumer activity in the area [3] Group 4 - The Green Heart Park is launching a "2026 New Spring Light and Shadow Carnival" from February 6 to March 3, featuring a blend of light displays, traditional performances, and an ice and snow amusement park [4] - The carnival will showcase various themed light installations and traditional cultural performances, creating an immersive experience for visitors [4] Group 5 - The "2026 New Spring Cultural Festival" will take place from February 17 to February 23, featuring a large event space with multiple attractions, including a 10-meter high horse-themed lantern and a 17-meter long red lantern corridor [5] - The festival will include 80 food stalls and 25 brand restaurants, offering a variety of traditional and trendy culinary experiences, along with interactive cultural activities [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (09987.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company has maintained positive same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with a projected increase in store expansion in 2026 [4][21]. - For Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit of $140 million, up 21.7% [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, driven by innovations in delivery and product offerings, with a forecasted net increase of over 1,900 stores in 2026 [3][20]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the operating profit was $187 million, reflecting a 23.8% increase year-on-year, with an EPS of $0.40 [9][10]. - The KFC division generated $2.125 billion in revenue, up 8.75%, while the Pizza Hut division saw revenue of $540 million, a 5.9% increase [9][10]. - The overall same-store sales growth was 3%, with KFC and Pizza Hut achieving 3% and 1% growth respectively [10][11]. Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores by the end of the year, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores respectively [11][20]. - The proportion of franchised stores is increasing, with KFC and Pizza Hut's franchise store ratios reaching 15% and 8% by the end of 2025 [11][20]. Cost and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by revenue leverage [3][18]. - Labor costs accounted for approximately 29.3% of total costs, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising delivery costs [3][18]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve a net profit of $1.019 billion in 2026, with projections for 2027 and 2028 at $1.106 billion and $1.170 billion respectively [5][21]. - The anticipated shareholder return for 2026 is approximately $1.5 billion, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion for 2027-2028 [3][20].

Group 1 - The hotel and catering sector increased by 2.09% compared to the previous trading day, with Junting Hotel leading the gains [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] - The closing prices and percentage changes for key stocks in the hotel and catering sector include: Junting Hotel at 32.19 (+5.37%), ST Yunwang at 2.21 (+5.24%), and Shoulv Hotel at 17.55 (+2.33%) [1] Group 2 - The net capital flow in the hotel and catering sector showed a net outflow of 27.59 million yuan from main funds and 26.93 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 54.51 million yuan [1] - Specific net inflows and outflows for key stocks include: Junting Hotel with a net inflow of 17.93 million yuan from main funds, while ST Yunwang had a net outflow of 6.95 million yuan from speculative funds [2] - The retail investor net inflow for Junting Hotel was -16.66 million yuan, while for ST Yunwang it was -5.04 million yuan, indicating varied investor sentiment across different stocks [2]

Group 1 - The hotel and catering sector increased by 1.1% on February 3, with Huazhong Hotel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] - Key stocks in the hotel and catering sector showed varied performance, with Huazhong Hotel closing at 3.81, up 3.53%, and ST Yunwang down 0.94% to 2.10 [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the hotel and catering sector was 50.198 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 47.6257 million yuan [1] - Detailed fund flow data indicates that Huazhong Hotel had a main fund net inflow of 559,800 yuan, while Jinling Hotel experienced a net outflow of 1.5664 million yuan [2] - The overall trend shows that retail investors are more active in the sector, with significant net inflows in several stocks despite the main fund outflows [2]

证券之星消息，2月2日酒店餐饮板块较上一交易日下跌1.72%，西安饮食领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4015.75，下跌2.48%。深证成指报收于13824.35，下跌2.69%。酒店餐饮板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 605108 | 同庆楼 | 20.11 | 2.97% | 9.26万 | 1.87亿 | | 000428 | 华天酒店 | 3.68 | 2.51% | 64.01万 | 2.39 Z | | 002306 | *ST云网 | 2.12 | 0.47% | 22.38万 | 4735.84万 | | 301073 | 君喜酒店 | 30.20 | -0.20% | 9.31万 | 2.84亿 | | 601007 | 金陵饭店 | 8.26 | -0.36% | 17.13万 | 1.44亿 | | 002186 | 全聚德 | 11.98 | -0.91% | 10.22万 | 1.23亿 | | 600258 | 首旅酒店 | 17.0 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.96% to 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.66%. The ChiNext Index, however, rose by 1.27% [1][7] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 2.86 trillion RMB, with nearly 2900 stocks declining. The communication sector led the gains, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw the largest losses [1][7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.08%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.1%. In the overseas markets, all three major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones down by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.94% [1][7] Important News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the acceleration of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, highlighting the importance of leveraging comparative advantages to promote breakthroughs in future industries [2][8] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, indicating a decline in business activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2][8] Sector Analysis - In the social services sector, the proportion of heavy positions in funds increased, with 286 funds holding shares, up by 109 from the previous quarter. The total market value of holdings reached 5.57 billion RMB, an increase of 0.975 billion RMB [9][10] - The heavy position ratio for the social services sector was 0.06%, up by 0.01 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sectors, indicating potential for rebound as it remains below the 5-year average of 0.34% [9][10] - The hospitality and restaurant sectors showed slight recovery, while the education sector saw a significant decline in heavy position ratios [9][10] Individual Stocks - Leading stocks in the social services sector saw increased holdings, with the top ten stocks' combined heavy position ratio rising to 0.058%, an increase of 0.013 percentage points from the previous quarter. Notable stocks include Huace Testing, Shoulv Hotel, and JiuHua Tourism [10][11] - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the upcoming long holiday and those positioned to take advantage of the Hainan Free Trade Port's opportunities [11] Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care sector saw a decrease in fund allocation, with the total market value of A-shares at 255.096 billion RMB, down by 10.43% from the previous quarter. The fund allocation ratio was 0.14%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points [12][13] - The personal care and cosmetics segments remain in a low allocation zone, while the medical beauty segment is in an over-allocated position [12][13] - Key stocks in the beauty and personal care sector include Jinbo Biological, Aimeike, and Baiya Shares, with their heavy position ratios declining compared to the previous quarter [14]

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