Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company reported total revenue of $2.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7% excluding foreign currency effects, and adjusted net profit of $140 million, a year-on-year increase of 22% excluding foreign currency effects [2][6]. - For the full year 2025, total revenue reached $11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% excluding foreign currency effects, with adjusted net profit of $929 million, a year-on-year increase of 2% excluding foreign currency effects [2][6]. - The company is expected to open 1,900 new stores in 2026, maintaining a high store opening pace, which is anticipated to drive continued revenue growth [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, system sales increased by 7% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 3% and same-store transaction volume growth of 4%, marking the twelfth consecutive quarter of growth [9]. - KFC's system sales grew by 8% year-on-year in Q4, with same-store sales increasing by 3% [9]. - Pizza Hut's system sales increased by 6% year-on-year, with same-store sales growth of 1% and same-store transaction volume growth of 13% [9]. Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, the highest for that quarter, with 36% being franchise stores [9]. - For the full year, KFC's store count grew by 12% to 12,997, while Pizza Hut's store count also grew by 12% to 4,168 [9]. Profitability - The operating profit margin and restaurant profit margin for KFC improved to 10.5% and 14%, respectively, while for Pizza Hut, they improved to 3.7% and 9.9% [9]. - The overall operating profit margin increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 6.6% [9].

同店销售额显著改善。2025 全年/2025Q4 整体同店销售额同比分别+1%/+3%，2025 全年肯德基/必胜客 同店销售额同比分别+1%/+1%，公司整体同店销售额/同店交易量连续三个季度/十二个季度实现同比正 增长。其中：①肯德基：25Q4 同店销售额/同店交易量/客单价分别+3%/+3%/持平；②必胜客：25Q4 同 店销售额/同店交易量/客单价分别+1%/+13%/-11%，或主要系公司提供了更多性价比产品。 2026 年展望积极：①2026 年门店总数超过2 万家（即净新增门店超1900家）；2030 年门店数量超3 万 家；②肯德基及必胜客新增门店中加盟店占比均达40-50%；③资本支出6-7 亿美元；④2025 年向股东回 馈15 亿美元（现金股息/股票回购3.53/11.4 亿美元），股息率近8%。 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到新品牌门店势能充足，我们调整2026-2027年公司归母净利润预测至 10.43/11.44 亿美元（前值9.89/10.59 亿美元）并新增2028 年利润预测12.63 亿美元，同比增长 机构：东吴证券 研究员：苏铖/邓洁/吴劲草 百胜中国发布2025Q4 及全年 ...

[Table_Title] 【广发批零社服&海外】百胜中国 （09987.HK/YUMC.N） Q4 同店与利润率优化超预期，龙头韧性凸显 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测：（货币单位为美元，汇率采用 1 港元=0.13 美元） | [单位Table_Finance] :百万元 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11303 | 11797 | 12449 | 13142 | 13862 | | 增长率（ % ） | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | | EBITDA | 1638 | 1737 | 1859 | 1977 | 2099 | | 归母净利润 | 911 | 929 | 1002 | 1080 | 1157 | | 增长率（ ） % | 10.2% | 2.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | | EPS（元/股） | 2.33 | 2.50 | 2.87 | 3.30 | 3.72 | ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 百胜中国（09987.HK） 百胜中国 2025Q4 及全年业绩公告点评：质 地稳健的高股息龙头，维持推荐 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | 11,303 | 11,797 | 12,686 | 13,426 | 14,262 | | 同比(%) | 2.96 | 4.37 | 7.54 | 5.83 | 6.23 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 911.00 | 929.00 | 1,042.71 | 1,143.75 | 1,262.86 | | 同比(%) | 10.16 | 1.98 | 12.24 | 9.69 | 10.41 | | EPS-最新摊薄（美元/股） | 2.57 | 2.62 | 2.94 | 3.23 | 3.56 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.10 | 21.67 | 19.31 | 17.61 | ...

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $2.823 billion in Q4 2025, representing an 8.8% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of $140 million, up 21.7% [1] - The KFC division generated $2.125 billion in revenue, an 8.75% increase, while the Pizza Hut division reported $540 million, a 5.9% increase [1] - The company expects same-store sales growth to remain stable, with a guidance of 0-2% growth for 2026 [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, operating profit reached $187 million, reflecting a 23.8% increase, and earnings per share (EPS) were $0.40 [1] - The operating profit margin for KFC was 10.5%, up 0.7 percentage points, while Pizza Hut's margin was 3.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point [1] - Delivery revenue grew by 34%, with restaurant revenue accounting for 53% of total sales [1] Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores respectively [2] - By the end of 2026, the company anticipates adding over 1,900 new stores, with a franchise ratio expected to reach 40-50% for new openings [2] Cost Structure and Profitability - Labor costs accounted for approximately 29.3% of total expenses, up 1.1 percentage points year-over-year, while food and material costs were 31.7%, down 0.2 percentage points [2] - The restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by revenue leverage [2] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a shareholder return of approximately $1.5 billion for 2026, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion from 2027 to 2028 [2]

Core Insights - The company has shown resilient same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, prompting an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 to $10.19 billion and $11.06 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2028 at $11.70 billion, corresponding to PE valuations of 17.4x, 15.2x, and 13.8x [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $28.23 billion, an increase of 8.8%, with operating profit at $1.87 billion (+23.8%) and net profit at $1.40 billion (+21.7%), resulting in an EPS of $0.40 [1] - By brand, KFC generated revenue of $21.25 billion (+8.75%) with an operating profit of $2.23 billion (+16.1%) and an operating margin of 10.5% (+0.7 percentage points). Pizza Hut reported revenue of $5.40 billion (+5.9%) and an operating profit of $20 million (+42.9%) with an operating margin of 3.7% (+1.0 percentage points) [1] - Delivery revenue increased by 34%, with restaurant revenue accounting for 53% of total sales [1] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores, respectively. In Q4 2025, the company added 587 stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut contributing 357 and 146 stores, respectively. The proportion of franchise stores reached 15% for KFC and 8% for Pizza Hut by the end of 2025 [3] Cost Structure and Profitability - In Q4 2025, salaries and employee benefits accounted for approximately 29.3% of total costs, up by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased delivery costs. Food and raw materials accounted for 31.7%, while property rent and other operating expenses made up about 26.0%. The restaurant profit margin was 13.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by revenue leverage [4] Future Outlook - The company expects to add over 1,900 stores in 2026, with total stores projected to exceed 20,000 by the end of that year. The proportion of franchise stores among new openings is expected to reach 40-50% [5] - The company announced a shareholder return of approximately $1.5 billion for 2026, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion for 2027-2028, surpassing $1 billion in 2028 [5]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates that Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, achieving the anticipated growth target, with foreign trade increasing by 1.4% despite a decline in exports due to a high base in 2024 [7] - The strategy report highlights that A-share earnings are stabilizing, driven by cost reductions and the new economy outpacing the old economy, with a projected 10% growth in A-share earnings for 2026 under neutral assumptions [8][10] Industry and Company - The North Exchange's January 2026 report shows a significant increase in market activity, with a total of 292 listed companies and a total market value of 936.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% increase in total market value [11] - In the electric power equipment sector, domestic demand is expected to remain strong, with a focus on high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and smart meters, as the State Grid's fixed asset investment is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous five-year plan [14][15][17] - Yum China reported a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching $2.823 billion, driven by a 34% increase in delivery sales [18][19][21]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates that Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, with foreign trade increasing by 1.4% despite a decline in exports due to a high base in 2024 [7] - The A-share market is projected to see a 10% profit growth in 2026, driven by cost reductions and the rise of new economy sectors outpacing traditional sectors [8][10] Industry and Company - The North Exchange saw a significant increase in trading activity in January 2026, with a total of 292 listed companies and a market capitalization of 936.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.7% increase [11] - The electric power equipment industry is expected to benefit from strong domestic demand and overseas expansion opportunities, particularly in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology [14][15] - Yum China reported a 22% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, with total revenue reaching $2.823 billion, driven by a 34% increase in delivery sales [19][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-voltage direct current and smart meter sectors, recommending companies like Pinggao Electric and XJ Electric for their growth potential [17] - Anticipate continued overseas expansion for Chinese companies in the electric power sector, suggesting attention to companies like Sifang Co. and Mingyang Smart Energy [17]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 百胜中国（09987.HK） 优于大市 同店收入连续 3 季度正增，2026 年门店扩张提速 2025Q4 归母净利润同增 22%。2025Q4，公司实现收入 28.23 亿美元/+8.8%； 实现经营利润 1.87 亿美元/+23.8%；归母净利润 1.40 亿美元/+21.7%； EPS 为 0.40 美元。分品牌看，2025Q4，肯德基分部收入 21.25 亿美元 /+8.75%；经营利润 2.23 亿美元/+16.1%；经营利润率为 10.5%/+0.7pct。 必胜客分部收入 5.40 亿美元/+5.9%；经营利润 2000 万美元/+42.9%； 经营利润率为 3.7%，同比+1.0pct。分渠道看，外卖收入同增 34%，增 速环比继续上行，餐厅收入占比已达到 53%。 外卖占比提升人工成本上行，餐厅利润率表现优秀。2025Q4，薪金及雇员 福利占比约 29.3%，同比+1.1pct，外卖收入占比提升致外卖骑手成本上 升影响为主；食品及原材料占比为 31.7%，同比-0.2pct；物业租金及其 他经营开支占比约 26.0%，同比-1.6pct，公司餐厅利润 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (09987.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company has maintained positive same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with a projected increase in store expansion in 2026 [4][21]. - For Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit of $140 million, up 21.7% [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, driven by innovations in delivery and product offerings, with a forecasted net increase of over 1,900 stores in 2026 [3][20]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the operating profit was $187 million, reflecting a 23.8% increase year-on-year, with an EPS of $0.40 [9][10]. - The KFC division generated $2.125 billion in revenue, up 8.75%, while the Pizza Hut division saw revenue of $540 million, a 5.9% increase [9][10]. - The overall same-store sales growth was 3%, with KFC and Pizza Hut achieving 3% and 1% growth respectively [10][11]. Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores by the end of the year, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores respectively [11][20]. - The proportion of franchised stores is increasing, with KFC and Pizza Hut's franchise store ratios reaching 15% and 8% by the end of 2025 [11][20]. Cost and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by revenue leverage [3][18]. - Labor costs accounted for approximately 29.3% of total costs, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising delivery costs [3][18]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve a net profit of $1.019 billion in 2026, with projections for 2027 and 2028 at $1.106 billion and $1.170 billion respectively [5][21]. - The anticipated shareholder return for 2026 is approximately $1.5 billion, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion for 2027-2028 [3][20].