证券研究报告 2026 年 3 月 2 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 后市展望： 周五，A 股 2 月收官，沪指月线斩获 3 连阳。三大指数开盘集体低开，沪指低开 0.43%， 深成指低开 0.89%，创业板指低开 1.23%。随后指数震荡。截至午盘收盘，三大指数震荡 调整，沪指再度翻绿，创业板指跌超 1%。盘面上，算力租赁概念集体爆发；有色金属板 块反复活跃；AI 编程概念走强；太空光伏概念震荡反弹。午后，指数震荡上行，最终收 盘三大指数涨跌不一。总体上个股涨多跌少，钢铁、煤炭、有色金属、公用事业和农林牧 渔等行业表现靠前；建筑材料、通信、电子、汽车和家用电器等行业表现靠后。概念指数 方面，金属铅、金属锌、小金属概念、金属铜和金属钴等板块表现靠前；国家大基金持股、 PCB 概念、中芯国际概念、存储芯片和先进封装等板块表现靠后。 值得关注的是，为促进外汇市场发展，支持企业管理好汇率风险，中国人民银行决定 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1 A 股 ...

二、强势概念板块 根据A股概念涨跌幅与所对应的股票池综合分析，涨幅靠前的三个概念板块分别为：可燃冰、培育钻石与草甘膦。排名前10位的概念板块相关数据见下表： | 概念名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 涨停成分股占比(%) | 上涨成分股占比(%) | 下跌成分股占比(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 可燃冰 | 7.38 | 28.57 | 100.0 | 0.0 | | 培育钻石 | 6.16 | 16.67 | 94.44 | 5.56 | | 草甘脾 | 5.56 | 11.11 | 100.0 | 0.0 | | 钛白粉概念 | 5.47 | 20.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | | 页岩气 | 5.34 | 12.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | | 磷化工 | 5.18 | 20.69 | 93.1 | 6.9 | | 金属铝 | 4.93 | 13.16 | 97.37 | 2.63 | | 俄乌冲突概念 | 4.89 | 20.55 | 97.26 | 2.74 | | 化肥 | 4.52 | 12.5 | 97.22 | 2.78 | | 金属锌 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.09% to close at 4131.99, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35% to 14160.93 [2] - The overall trading volume in the market was below 2 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of strong market momentum [4][6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Construction Materials (3.29%), Nonferrous Metals (2.39%), and Oil & Petrochemicals (2.18%) [3] - Conversely, the sectors that underperformed were Communication (-2.17%), Media (-1.99%), and Social Services (-1.74%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation with potential short-term adjustments as investor sentiment becomes cautious ahead of the Spring Festival [6] - Long-term, the regulatory environment is signaling a focus on market normalization and risk prevention, suggesting a shift towards a more balanced market structure [6] - There is an emphasis on dividend assets for long-term positioning, along with opportunities in cyclical industries and undervalued traditional consumer sectors [6] Economic Indicators - Consumer demand is recovering, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month but decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing pressures in the industrial sector [5] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support liquidity and financing conditions [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, with all three major indices declining over 2% [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.69% to 13824.35 [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Food & Beverage (+1.11%), Banks (+0.17%), and Household Appliances (-0.49%) [3] - Conversely, the worst-performing sectors were Non-ferrous Metals (-7.62%), Steel (-5.93%), and Basic Chemicals (-5.69%) [3] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The market showed a broad decline, with over 4600 stocks falling, and 123 stocks hitting the daily limit down [6] - The report indicates that the market sentiment has cooled significantly, with expectations of continued volatility in February [6] - Despite the current downturn, there is an expectation that the overall index adjustment space is limited, and stabilization may occur around the Chinese New Year [6] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.3, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was at 49.4, also showing a decline [5] - The report highlights that some small and medium-sized banks have begun reducing deposit rates, which may set the stage for broader interest rate cuts by the central bank [6]

- The DecompGRU model was used to construct a weekly long-only stock selection portfolio, holding the top 200 stocks with the highest integrated scores equally weighted The portfolio is rebalanced weekly based on the updated factor values from the previous Friday's closing prices Stocks with price limits or suspension are excluded, and transaction costs are not considered The benchmark is the CSI All Share Equal Weight Index[8][10] - The DecompGRU model's individual stock scores were aggregated to construct an ETF rotation portfolio The ETF pool is limited to industry and thematic ETFs, retaining only the ETF with the highest average daily trading volume over the past five days if multiple ETFs track the same index The portfolio is rebalanced weekly, holding 2-6 ETFs per period, with a benchmark of the Wind Thematic ETF Index[11][13] - A sentiment factor was constructed using user behavior data from Tonghuashun, aggregating stock-level heat indicators (browsing, watchlist, and click counts) normalized as a percentage of the total market and scaled by 10,000 This aggregated heat indicator serves as a proxy for "sentiment heat" at the broad-based index, industry, and concept levels[15][19][28] - A simple rotation strategy was built based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate on the last trading day of each week If the "Others" group has the highest change rate, the strategy remains in cash The strategy achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%[21][24] - A concept-level sentiment strategy was constructed by selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest weekly heat change rates, excluding the bottom 20% of stocks by market capitalization within each concept From each concept, the top 10 stocks by total heat were equally weighted to form the "TOP" portfolio, while the bottom 10 stocks formed the "BOTTOM" portfolio The BOTTOM portfolio achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[39][41][42] - The DecompGRU TOP200 portfolio achieved a cumulative absolute return of 74.91% and an excess return of 38.96% relative to the CSI All Share Equal Weight Index since its inception on March 31, 2025 The portfolio's maximum drawdown was 10.08%, with a weekly win rate of 68.18% and a monthly win rate of 100% In January 2026, the portfolio's absolute return was 8.99%, with an excess return of 0.98%[10] - The ETF rotation portfolio achieved a cumulative absolute return of 40.08% and an excess return of 5.93% relative to the Wind Thematic ETF Index since its inception on March 18, 2025 The portfolio's maximum drawdown was 7.82%, with a weekly win rate of 64.44% and a monthly win rate of 70% In January 2026, the portfolio's absolute return was 10.98%, with an excess return of 3.37%[13][14] - The broad-based index heat momentum strategy achieved a cumulative return of 6.6% in 2026[24] - The concept-level sentiment BOTTOM portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 3.7% in 2026[42]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.96% to 4117.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.66%. The ChiNext Index, however, rose by 1.27% [1][7] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 2.86 trillion RMB, with nearly 2900 stocks declining. The communication sector led the gains, while the non-ferrous metals sector saw the largest losses [1][7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.08%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.1%. In the overseas markets, all three major U.S. stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones down by 0.36%, the S&P 500 down by 0.43%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.94% [1][7] Important News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the acceleration of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, highlighting the importance of leveraging comparative advantages to promote breakthroughs in future industries [2][8] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, indicating a decline in business activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2][8] Sector Analysis - In the social services sector, the proportion of heavy positions in funds increased, with 286 funds holding shares, up by 109 from the previous quarter. The total market value of holdings reached 5.57 billion RMB, an increase of 0.975 billion RMB [9][10] - The heavy position ratio for the social services sector was 0.06%, up by 0.01 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sectors, indicating potential for rebound as it remains below the 5-year average of 0.34% [9][10] - The hospitality and restaurant sectors showed slight recovery, while the education sector saw a significant decline in heavy position ratios [9][10] Individual Stocks - Leading stocks in the social services sector saw increased holdings, with the top ten stocks' combined heavy position ratio rising to 0.058%, an increase of 0.013 percentage points from the previous quarter. Notable stocks include Huace Testing, Shoulv Hotel, and JiuHua Tourism [10][11] - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the upcoming long holiday and those positioned to take advantage of the Hainan Free Trade Port's opportunities [11] Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care sector saw a decrease in fund allocation, with the total market value of A-shares at 255.096 billion RMB, down by 10.43% from the previous quarter. The fund allocation ratio was 0.14%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points [12][13] - The personal care and cosmetics segments remain in a low allocation zone, while the medical beauty segment is in an over-allocated position [12][13] - Key stocks in the beauty and personal care sector include Jinbo Biological, Aimeike, and Baiya Shares, with their heavy position ratios declining compared to the previous quarter [14]

Strong Stocks - As of January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27% to 4151.24 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09% to 14342.89 points. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.57% to 3323.56 points. A total of 85 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit up, with the strongest stocks being: Baiyin Nonferrous Metals (601212), Hunan Baiyin (002716), and China Gold (600916) [1] - The top three strong stocks based on consecutive limit-up days and turnover rates are as follows: Baiyin Nonferrous Metals with 7 consecutive limit-ups and a turnover rate of 5.42%, Hunan Baiyin with 5 limit-ups in 7 days and a turnover rate of 21.68%, and China Gold with 4 consecutive limit-ups and a turnover rate of 1.81% [1] Strong Concept Sectors - The top three concept sectors based on A-share performance are: Gold Concept with a rise of 7.54%, Metal Lead with a rise of 6.92%, and Metal Zinc with a rise of 6.91% [2][3] - The top ten concept sectors and their respective performance are as follows: Gold Concept (7.54%), Metal Aluminum (6.92%), Metal Zinc (6.91%), Metal Copper (4.91%), Minor Metals Concept (3.94%), Metal Nickel (3.84%), Metal Diamond (3.57%), Combustible Ice (3.53%), Metal Recycling (3.52%), and Glyphosate (3.43%) [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective decline on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.91%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 32,478.31 billion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and defense industry led the gains, while communication, banking, and coal sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors that performed well included avian influenza, lead, and zinc, while military information technology, terahertz, and military-civilian integration concepts saw declines [1][7] Important News - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility on Monday, with COMEX silver initially surging over 16% and spot silver nearly rising 14%, both surpassing the $117 per ounce mark before retreating. COMEX silver's gains narrowed to 2.5%, while spot silver turned negative. COMEX gold and spot gold also briefly crossed the $5,000 and $5,100 thresholds, respectively, but later saw their gains diminish, with both settling around the $5,000 mark [2][8] - Exchanges took measures to cool down the commodity futures market, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Exchange announcing reductions in daily opening trading limits for silver and tin futures contracts to 800 lots and 200 lots, respectively. They also imposed restrictions on 16 clients regarding opening positions in tin and silver futures for one month and limited withdrawals. Additionally, the trading limits for copper, international copper, and aluminum futures contracts were adjusted to 9%, with margin ratios for hedging and general positions set at 10% and 11% [2][8]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% to close at 4116.94 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.7% to 14255.12 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 0.54% to 3295.52 points as of January 21 [1] - A total of 90 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit up, with the strongest stocks being Guangdian Electric (601616), Hunan Silver (002716), and Hongbaoli (002165) [1] - The top three strong stocks had the following performance: Guangdian Electric with 4 consecutive limit ups and a turnover rate of 44.4%, Hunan Silver with 2 consecutive limit ups and a turnover rate of 17.4%, and Hongbaoli with 2 consecutive limit ups and a turnover rate of 39.71% [1] Group 2 - The aluminum metal sector saw a price increase of 5.01%, while zinc metal rose by 4.83%, and the gold concept increased by 3.82% [2] - Other notable sectors included copper metal with a rise of 3.33%, advanced packaging at 3.11%, and co-packaged optics (CPO) at 3.09% [2] - The storage chip sector increased by 2.8%, PCB concept rose by 2.79%, and Foxconn concept and lithography machine both saw an increase of 2.76% [2]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw collective gains last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.14%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,600.31 billion yuan [1][7]. - In terms of industry performance, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and steel led the gains, while electronics, light industry manufacturing, and telecommunications lagged behind. Concept sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, zinc, and lead also saw gains, while sectors like new technology stocks and photolithography experienced declines [1][7]. Important News - The National Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 27 to 28, emphasizing the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. Key tasks include supporting domestic demand, enhancing financial collaboration, and promoting green transformation [2][8]. - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund officially commenced operations on December 26. This fund aims to focus on early-stage investments in hard technology sectors such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology, with a lifespan of 15 to 20 years to match the long-term R&D needs [3][9].