根据消费者价格指数调整，当年850美元/盎司的高点折合如今约为3,590美元。尽管调整通胀的方法各有不同， 部分计算结果略低，但市场普遍认同黄金已全面突破这一重要心理关口，再度巩固其作为对抗通胀和货币贬 值"终极避险工具"的地位。Marathon Resource Advisors投资组合经理Robert Mullin表示："黄金是一种独特的资 产，在数百甚至上千年的历史中，它始终扮演着保值和避险的重要角色。" 2025年以来，黄金累计上涨近40%。推动金价飙升的核心因素包括：总统特朗普大规模减税并升级全球贸易 战，导致市场担心美国财政赤字和通胀压力不断上升；美元和长期美债年初遭到大规模抛售，市场对美国资产 避险地位的信心出现动摇；特朗普前所未有地试图影响美联储决策，市场担忧美联储或被迫提前、甚至激进降 息，即便通胀压力未完全缓解。值得注意的是，近两周金价再次爆发式上涨，突破4月创下的名义纪录。投资者 押注美联储将在近期降息，以应对就业增长放缓和潜在的经济衰退。这一逻辑也使黄金相较于国债等收益资产 更具吸引力，同时打压美元走势。 1980年1月，黄金在两个月内价格翻倍，最高触及850美元/盎司。当时美国面临美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the pricing logic of gold fundamentally returns to one point: demand, highlighting the complexity of gold's pricing framework due to its diverse demand composition across different economic cycles [5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since late April, the gold price has broken a prolonged stagnation, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $3,674.78 on September 9, marking an increase of over $1,000 per ounce and a year-to-date rise of 40% [3][5]. - The surge in gold prices since 2022 is attributed to geopolitical factors, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which initiated a unique central bank gold purchasing trend [5][6]. Group 2: Future Gold Demand - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is expected to continue into 2023 and 2024, with emerging market investors from countries like China and India contributing significantly to physical gold demand [5][6]. - The marginal pricing of gold in 2024 will be influenced by factors such as deflation in China and the reshaping of Asian supply chains, which will have economic spillover effects [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risk-Return Profile - Gold's unique risk-return characteristics allow it to optimize the risk-adjusted returns of investment portfolios, making it a strategic asset in various macroeconomic scenarios [17][20]. - A quantitative framework is proposed to determine the optimal allocation of gold in multi-asset portfolios, with a suggested minimum allocation of 6% and a maximum of 7.7% to maintain a balance between risk and return [22][23]. Group 4: Economic and Financial Factors - Gold's long-term price dynamics are influenced by both economic factors (like GDP growth) and financial factors (global investment portfolios), reflecting its dual nature as both a consumption and investment asset [19][20]. - Historical data shows that gold has a lower correlation with major asset classes, which aids in diversifying investment portfolio risks [20][21]. Group 5: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Iran conflict, have not significantly impacted gold prices, indicating that gold's pricing is not solely driven by geopolitical events [27][28]. - The article suggests that the market's focus may shift towards "recession trades" and liquidity easing as key drivers for gold prices in the latter half of the year [29].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside increased geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties, leading investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][7]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - On September 3, the New York gold futures contract surpassed $3,616.9 per ounce, marking a historical high, driven primarily by the anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1]. - Following the release of July's core inflation data, market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve rose significantly, as indicated by Chairman Powell's signals regarding potential adjustments to monetary policy [3]. - The labor market's slowdown, evidenced by a significant drop in non-farm payrolls and an increase in unemployment rates, has further solidified expectations for a rate cut [3][5]. Market Sentiment and Investment Behavior - The recent dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member by President Trump has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, prompting investors to turn to gold as a financial safety net [7][8]. - Increased inflows into gold ETFs reflect heightened risk aversion among investors, paralleling a trend of central banks, including China's, accumulating gold to bolster their currencies' credibility [8]. Short-term and Long-term Market Outlook - In the short term, the focus remains on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with potential for profit-taking or market corrections following any announced rate cuts [9]. - Long-term trends indicate a shift in gold's role from a financial asset to a monetary asset, driven by rising U.S. debt levels and ongoing skepticism regarding the dollar's credibility [11]. Recommendations for Investors - Ordinary investors should view gold as a strategic asset in their portfolios, particularly during periods of uncertainty, rather than a means for quick profits [13]. - Investment strategies should emphasize long-term holdings and gradual accumulation of gold, akin to a systematic savings approach, to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [15].

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council (WGC) plans to pilot a digital gold form next year, potentially transforming the $900 billion physical gold market in London through new trading, settlement, and collateral methods [1] Group 1: Digital Gold Introduction - Digital gold will allow investors to participate in gold investment with smaller amounts, significantly lowering the investment threshold and enabling more ordinary investors to enter the gold market [1] - The introduction of digital gold breaks geographical barriers, allowing global investors to engage in the gold market, which will help increase the overall scale of the gold market [1] Group 2: Benefits of Digital Gold - Digital gold enables global asset allocation for investors while providing a low-cost and efficient trading experience [1] - Traditionally, gold is a static, non-yielding asset on bank balance sheets; however, digitized gold can be used to meet margin requirements and serve as collateral, thus enhancing its utility [1] - The digitization of gold upgrades it from a "safe-haven asset" to "financial infrastructure" [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market in 2025 is experiencing significant volatility, with spot gold prices rising by $28.02 (0.83%) to $3393.62 per ounce on August 26, marking a two-week high [1] - In August, spot gold accumulated a rise of 3.27%, reflecting a vibrant market environment [1] - Central banks globally, with 95% planning to increase gold holdings in 2025, are influencing long-term trends in spot and London gold prices, with China's central bank increasing its reserves for eight consecutive months [1] Group 2: Differences Between Spot Gold and London Gold - Spot gold and London gold, while similar in being gold trading instruments, differ significantly in trading hours, pricing mechanisms, and cost structures [2] - Spot gold is limited by domestic exchange trading hours, whereas London gold trades nearly 24 hours, catering to global market rhythms [2] - The pricing mechanism for London gold changed in June 2025, as it no longer has a traditional fixing price, while spot gold continues to reference domestic exchange quotes [2] Group 3: Platform Selection and Compliance - Choosing the right trading platform is crucial, especially in a volatile market, with compliance and regulatory status being primary considerations [5][6] - Gold trading platforms like Gold盛贵金属 offer advantages such as a unique transaction coding system for transparency and lower trading costs, which can enhance profitability [5] - The platform's services, including instant deposits and quick withdrawals, are essential for managing trades effectively during price fluctuations [5] Group 4: Investment Guidelines for Newcomers - New investors should prioritize checking regulatory qualifications and selecting platforms with clear licenses to avoid unregulated entities [6] - Managing position sizes and understanding key economic indicators, such as Federal Reserve decisions, are vital for informed trading [6] - Utilizing risk management tools, like setting stop-loss orders, is important in a volatile market to mitigate potential losses [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article discusses the current dynamics of the gold market, highlighting the impact of Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical tensions on gold prices [3][4][6] - As of September 2, 2025, domestic gold prices reached 803.84 CNY per gram, reflecting a 1.47% increase, while international gold futures were priced at 3377.2 USD per ounce, indicating sustained investor interest [3][4] - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is seen as a significant support for gold prices, with a nearly 90% probability of this outcome [3][4] Group 2: Investment Platform Selection - For new investors, choosing a reliable trading platform is crucial, with Hong Kong Gold Sheng Precious Metals Co., Ltd. being highlighted for its regulatory compliance and professional services [4] - The platform supports MT4 & MT5 trading modes, ensuring fast order execution and transparency in transactions, which is essential for risk management [4][6] Group 3: Risk Control Methods - Effective risk control in gold investment involves both technical analysis and position management, with key support and resistance levels identified for gold prices [6][7] - Investors are advised to utilize stop-loss tools provided by trading platforms to mitigate potential losses during market volatility [6][7] Group 4: Investment Education - New investors often confuse futures gold with physical gold, with futures offering leverage but also higher risks, while physical gold is more suited for long-term value retention [7] - The article warns against misleading claims of "high returns with zero risk," emphasizing the need for realistic investment expectations based on macroeconomic data and technical analysis [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising gold prices driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and uncertainties in the global financial market, with gold being increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - The internal power struggle within the Federal Reserve is causing challenges to the confidence in the US dollar, further boosting the demand for gold [1] - Analysts suggest that gold is becoming a strategic allocation in the current volatile market environment, especially as recession fears grow [1][3] Group 2 - There is a noticeable difference between international and domestic gold prices, with the Chinese market showing relative stability despite international prices reaching historical highs [2] - Factors influencing domestic gold prices include the demand for diversification, consumption trends, and currency fluctuations, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves significantly [2] - The gold ETF (518800) has shown stable performance over the past decade, making it an attractive investment option for those seeking liquidity and convenience [3]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have surged, with a monthly increase of 4.81% in August, marking the best performance since April, currently trading around $3450 per ounce [1] - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by the latest U.S. inflation data, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showing a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual increase of 2.6%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased from 85% to 87% following the inflation data release, with predictions of one to two rate cuts throughout the year [1] Additional Factors - The U.S. dollar index has weakened, dropping 2.2% in August, which has made gold cheaper for international buyers, thus boosting demand [3] - The U.S. bond market has shown significant divergence, with the two-year Treasury yield experiencing its largest monthly drop in a year, down 33 basis points to 3.619%, reflecting strong expectations for lower short-term rates [3] - Political risks, such as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to actions by former President Trump, are also influencing gold prices [3] Technical Analysis - Gold prices closed strongly on Friday, reaching a near historical high of $3453, indicating potential for a breakout from the current trading range [5] - The market is currently testing resistance around $3450, with support expected in the $3420-$3430 range [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest attempting to buy near $3450 with a stop loss at $3455, targeting levels around $3433-$3423 [6]

以军行动双线升级 胡塞武装、哈马斯高层遭"精准打击" 据央视新闻消息，以色列不顾国际社会反对声音，在其多条战线上推进行动，中东地区战事升级。 早上好，中东地区战事升级！ 1.也门方向 胡塞武装8月30日发表声明称，该武装行政机构负责人艾哈迈德·拉哈维在28日以色列对也门首都萨那的空袭中丧生。 胡塞武装控制的马西拉电视台当日播出的声明称，拉哈维和该组织一些成员28日开会时遭到以色列军队袭击身亡，还有一些成员受 伤。 以色列方面同日承认了这次袭击行动。以色列国防军当日晚间发表声明称，在以色列情报部门的指导下，以军于28日袭击了位于也 门萨那地区的胡塞武装高级官员聚集地，在场的高级官员包括该武装行政机构负责人艾哈迈德·拉哈维和多位胡塞武装高级领导人。 以色列国防部长卡茨30日表示，两天前以色列国防军对胡塞武装高级官员进行了"前所未有的沉重打击"。卡茨还表示，以色列袭击 也门导致胡塞武装行政机构负责人和其他几名高级领导人死亡"仅仅是个开始"。 这一空袭引发胡塞武装强烈反应。胡塞武装"最高政治委员会"主席迈赫迪·马沙特30日晚间发表讲话，誓言报复，"以色列人必须等待 属于他们的黑暗日子"。此外，迈赫迪·马沙特称，胡塞武 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on Thursday, with an opening price of $3,387.94 per ounce, a high of $3,413.50, a low of $3,384.54, and a closing price of $3,410.90 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. second-quarter real GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 229,000, but weak employment growth may push the August unemployment rate up to 4.3% [2] - Average import tariffs in the U.S. have reached the highest level in a century due to President Trump's protectionist trade policies, leading to a labor market situation characterized by "no hiring and no layoffs" [2] - The average monthly employment growth over the past three months was 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period of 2024 [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September to address rising labor market risks, while also emphasizing ongoing inflation threats [2] Real Estate Market - U.S. existing home sales contracts fell for the second consecutive month in July, with the pending home sales index declining by 0.4% to 71.7, close to the levels seen for most of the year [4] - Despite mortgage rates dropping to a four-month low of 6.67%, financing costs remain double what they were at the end of 2021 [4] - The National Association of Realtors' chief economist stated that unless mortgage rates continue to decline and prices adjust favorably, existing home sales are unlikely to exceed 4 million units this year [4] Geopolitical Situation - German Chancellor Merz stated that a meeting between Zelensky and Putin will not take place [5] - European leaders are considering establishing a 40-kilometer buffer zone between the Russia-Ukraine front lines as part of a peace agreement, although this may put pressure on limited peacekeeping forces [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 5.44 tons, bringing the total to 967.94 tons [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 13.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 86.2% [6]