最近，茶饭后最火的话题就是股市了，"牛来了"已成为了大家的共识，就在昨天成交量已经突破了3万亿，这也是A股历史上第二次突破这个量能，相信 指数很快突破4000点。 虽然今天A股稍微调整了，但在成交量上也有2.7万亿，这是什么概念？ 要知道这是前几年都不曾有的现象，股市活跃，意味着很多人拿着闲钱冲进股市准备"上车"。 然而，就在很多人担心会不会调整的时候。财经媒体头条又发布"重磅"新闻：特朗普称今年将访华。 其实，特朗普反反复复提及访华，原计划是9月中国举行"抗日胜利80周年"，特朗普将出席，但很快让大家失望了，特朗普不来了。 但这次美国又释放出访华计划，也意味着中美关系即将迎来缓和，良好的国际大环境对A股无疑是一大利好。 另外，A股从不缺乏神话，寒武纪上半年营收28.81亿，同比暴增43倍，这个A"新秀"创造了又一个奇迹。 市场再次连续曝出2大利好，冲锋号已经吹响，明天又要开始进军了！ 最近，喜欢刷头条的朋友，或许看到很多人晒收益，心里充满无限的羡慕。 但也有一类人，望A兴叹！在高点买房，背负巨额债务无法喘息，更别说抓住这波十年一遇的牛市了，或许很多人靠这一波牛市改变命运。 深陷债务危机的你，又该如何改变自己 ...

这场景太常见了。身边炒股的散户朋友，十有八九都亏过，但真能彻底离开的没几个。明知道难赚钱，为啥还在坚持？今天就掏心窝子聊聊这事儿，说说散 户踩过的坑，也聊聊怎么破局。 机构和散户的信息差，是股市里最隐蔽的"收割机"。 前几天在公园遇到一位老股民，六十多岁，盯着手机里的K线图叹气："炒股十年，没赚到钱，本金还亏了不少。"问他为啥不退出，他摆摆手："习惯了， 总觉得下一次能回本。" 机构有专业团队盯着政策、研报、公司公告，消息一出来几分钟就能分析完；散户呢？要么刷新闻看到"利好"，点进去发现是三天前的旧闻，股价早就涨过 了；要么看到"利空"就慌不择路割肉，后来才知道那消息根本不影响核心业务。 真实案例：2020年某新能源公司宣布"签订大额订单"，新闻标题写得轰轰烈烈。我激动地全仓杀进去，结果第二天低开低走——后来才知道，那订单金额占 公司营收比例不到5%，早就被机构预判消化了，我纯属接盘。 更麻烦的是消息解读。同样一份财报，有人看到"净利润增长10%"觉得是利好，有人看到"扣非净利润下降5%"觉得是利空。散户没专业知识，很容易被标题 党带偏。去年有朋友看到某公司"研发投入大增50%"的新闻就冲进去，结果股价跌了2 ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that understanding and cognitive ability are crucial for identifying and seizing business opportunities in a changing economic landscape [1][3][7] - The statement emphasizes that many individuals fail to earn significant wealth not due to lack of effort, but because they do not comprehend the logic of making money [3][10] - Successful entrepreneurs like Lei Jun and Zhang Yiming exemplify the importance of recognizing trends and understanding market dynamics before launching their ventures [9] Group 2 - The article highlights that reading is the fastest way to enhance cognitive abilities and understand complex business models [5][12] - It points out that those who do not read often remain trapped in their own limited perspectives, missing out on opportunities [8][15] - Knowledge of specific areas such as supply chains, financial cycles, and content algorithms is essential for success in e-commerce, investment, and self-media [13]

Group 1 - The story of two shoe factory managers illustrates different perspectives on market potential, highlighting the importance of observation and selective listening in decision-making [1] - The narrative emphasizes that transforming people's mindsets and behaviors is challenging, with only a few capable of making such changes [1] Group 2 - The analysis of "Journey to the West" reveals that it is not merely a myth but contains profound social wisdom, emphasizing the distinction between thought and action [2][4] - The characters in "Journey to the West," such as Sun Wukong and others, represent various backgrounds and resources, showcasing how information and cognitive differences can lead to success [4][6] Group 3 - The comparison between the promotion of Buddhism in the Tang Dynasty and a shoe factory manager's attempt to sell shoes in a market without demand illustrates strategic positioning in marketing [6] - The dialogue between two seemingly indifferent characters serves to foreshadow the underlying themes of desire and ambition, reflecting Buddhist philosophy [8] Group 4 - The unfolding events orchestrated by the Buddha demonstrate a strategic approach to achieving goals, manipulating circumstances to align with broader objectives [10][12] - The narrative reveals how even powerful figures like Emperor Li Shimin are subject to larger schemes, emphasizing the intricate interplay of individual choices and systemic influences [12][14]

Group 1 - The article discusses the changing dynamics in college admissions, highlighting that traditional strategies used by admissions teams are becoming less effective as students become more aware of the complexities involved in choosing their majors and schools [3][16][32] - Students are increasingly navigating the pressures from their families, schools, and the admissions process, leading to a realization that the idealized paths presented to them may not align with their true interests [4][32][65] - The narrative illustrates specific cases of students, such as Yu Shu and Feng Xin, who challenge the conventional expectations of pursuing prestigious schools and majors, opting instead for fields that align more closely with their personal interests and circumstances [11][25][82] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the information gap that exists between high-achieving students and those from less privileged backgrounds, which affects their understanding of different fields and career prospects [34][35][57] - It highlights the role of high school teachers and the educational system in perpetuating a narrow view of success, often prioritizing prestige over suitability for students [21][31][65] - The experiences of students like Yu Shu and Feng Xin reveal a growing skepticism towards the traditional narrative of success tied to elite institutions, as they seek to define their futures based on personal aspirations rather than societal expectations [32][82][88] Group 3 - The article notes a significant shift in student attitudes towards college admissions, with some students rejecting the allure of prestigious institutions in favor of more suitable and practical choices [80][82][89] - It discusses the implications of this shift for the educational landscape, suggesting that the long-standing obsession with elite schools may be waning as students prioritize their own interests and well-being [29][32][78] - The narrative concludes with a reflection on the broader societal implications of these changes, indicating a potential re-evaluation of what constitutes success in education and career paths [57][78][90]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the tension between political pressures and the independence of the Federal Reserve, as President Trump publicly calls for the resignation of Chairman Powell, which raises concerns in the market about the Fed's autonomy [2] - Major Wall Street executives, including the CEOs of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase, have voiced their support for the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating a collective stance from the financial sector [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the lagging nature of news in the market, emphasizing that true market movements often precede news announcements, particularly in the A-share market where speculation occurs ahead of actual news [5] - It illustrates this point with examples of two stocks, Shengtun Mining and Qifeng New Materials, which had different market performances despite both announcing positive earnings forecasts, highlighting the importance of institutional investor behavior over mere news [10] Group 3 - The article stresses the value of quantitative data in understanding market dynamics, suggesting that institutional investors exhibit specific trading behaviors during market volatility, which can be analyzed through data [11] - It advises investors to focus on real trading data rather than being swayed by news, as data provides a more reliable insight into market trends and investor sentiment [11][12]

RT 东门刮霜 (@moment_eth)认真听了，从yuyue老师对话中学习到很多，记了一下笔记：@yuyue_chris1.建议保持在场上，建立优质的信息渠道，并且每天收集信息。2.要换道超车，不要总想着弯道超车，每轮都会有一些新的机会。3.要有第二波的思维，大的概念如果第一波没有抓住的话，一般会有第二波。——巫师4.一定要放弃每天都赚钱的想法，把时间周期拉长。——巫师5.套利思维很重要，选择行业也是在行业之间套利。如果不能保证是千一的人，就应该找些别的新的东西。信息差的套利，更早进就能赚到更多的钱，同时也要考虑资金的机会成本。6如何找到新的赛道：（1）建立信息渠道。保持信息渠道更新，寻找能赚钱的人学习。（2）时间上的投入是否足够高，需要保持足够多的精力。（3）思考传播路径是否到底了？国外快于中国信息渠道，一级信息渠道快于二级渠信息渠道。8.思考：如何选择标的（1）市场是否大：一个标的能够容纳多少的资金，流动性是否好。（2）是否为非共识阶段，越非共识越安全。主要看传播链条：东西方、是否在交易所上线了，流动性如何等。（3）买入逻辑：是否存在信息差，或者认知差。（4）卖出逻辑：上cex合约卖出、上cex现货卖 ...

2025.7.5更新：不确定性：https://t.co/U4g65DLlqWXQ (@0xXQ1):最近思考总结的2个结论：1. 币圈所有大行情的来源只有2个，一个是底层技术变革，一个是外部增量预期。2. 收益的来源也只有两个，一个是信息差，一个是承担不确定性。1的坑回头填上，本次 $AP 也不涉及，2里的信息差之前置顶帖给过原因，这里用近期几个例子讲一下对不确定性的理解。 https://t.co/2upUx1VQ0G ...

Market Dynamics & Uncertainty - The current market situation for TAP and AP is uncertain until Elon Musk definitively announces the establishment or abandonment of a political party [1] - Uncertainty can lead to potential gains, as liquidity flows towards the direction with the greatest certainty [2] - Information asymmetry reduces uncertainty, leading to positive expected returns in the long run [2] - Retail investors inevitably bear some uncertainty due to information gaps [2] Investment & Trading Strategies - Traders need a consistent trading system to manage uncertainty and adapt to position fluctuations [2] - Relying solely on uncertainty for profit involves unseen losses, as complete uncertainty resembles a coin toss with a zero-sum or negative-sum outcome [2] Hypothetical Scenario - If Musk announces the establishment of a political party and registers it as AP, a new group (D_new) would encompass all liquidity (P), potentially leading to a price increase of 100% from C+D, with an unpredictable increase from B [2]

Market Drivers - Cryptocurrency market's major trends originate from two sources: fundamental technological changes and external incremental expectations [1] - Profit generation in the cryptocurrency space stems from information asymmetry and bearing uncertainty [1] Investment Strategies - Understanding and managing uncertainty is crucial for successful investment [1] - Information arbitrage is a source of profit, as previously discussed [1]