策略研究 周度报告 "反内卷"行情能否成为新主线？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-07-06 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《扰动在前，提升在后 — 2025 年 7 月 A 股市场研判及配置机 会》2025-06-29 2.中期策略《积聚向上突破的力量 — 2025 年 A 股中期投资策略》2025-06- 22 主要观点 ⚫ 短期存在外部风险 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Hualu Hengsheng's stock price has experienced a slight decline, and the company is actively engaged in a share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value and reduce registered capital [1][2]. Company Announcements - As of June 30, 2025, Hualu Hengsheng has repurchased a total of 2.3 million shares, representing 0.11% of the company's total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 48.1 million yuan, at a price range of 20.75 yuan to 21.08 yuan per share [1][3]. - The share repurchase plan was first announced on April 18, 2025, proposed by the chairman, with an implementation period from April 30, 2025, to April 29, 2026, and an expected repurchase amount between 200 million yuan and 300 million yuan [1]. - Following the implementation of the 2024 annual profit distribution plan, the maximum repurchase price has been adjusted from 32.38 yuan per share to 32.08 yuan per share, with the adjusted repurchase quantity estimated to be between approximately 6.23 million and 9.35 million shares, accounting for 0.29% to 0.44% of the total share capital [2].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.21% at 3451.69 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.32% and 0.58% respectively, with a half-day trading volume of 981.32 billion yuan [1] - The pig price has been declining since Q2 2024, with an increase in both breeding sows and newborn piglets, leading to a potential negative impact on CPI if prices continue to drop, prompting government regulatory concerns [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the current market conditions suggest that the stock price of the pig sector is at a bottom level, with low risks of further decline, indicating that any minor positive news could trigger significant price increases [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities highlighted that agriculture, as a fundamental sector, is experiencing a rise in investment value due to its unique attributes such as "anti-cyclical asset premium" and "historically low valuations" [2] - The investment approach in the pig sector is shifting from a "cyclical thinking" to a focus on "quality and price," with leading companies expected to have strong profit certainty by 2025 [2] - The Agricultural 50 ETF (516810) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Theme Index, covering various segments including breeding, agricultural chemicals, and feed, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for over 60% [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed the annual high set on March 18, 2025, and is approaching the high from October 8, 2024, indicating a significant market movement [1] - There is a noticeable divergence among various sectors, with banking, agriculture, personal care, military, chemical, transportation, and petrochemical industries showing a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [1] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, electronics, home appliances, telecommunications, computers, and electrical equipment have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [1] Group 2 - In the secondary industry analysis, financial (banking, insurance, diversified finance), military (naval equipment, ground weaponry), agriculture (animal health, agricultural products, planting, feed), precious metals, personal care products, and chemical pharmaceuticals show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [4] - Sectors like home appliances, electrical equipment, TMT (television broadcasting, communication services, consumer electronics, semiconductors, optical electronics), general steel, and machinery (engineering machinery, automation equipment) have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [4] - Comparing to the October 8, 2024 closing prices, banking, motorcycles, military (ground weaponry, aerospace equipment), chemicals (plastics, non-metallic materials), and new consumption (entertainment products, personal care products, retail, accessories) show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their previous levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a pullback after a strong performance, with over 3,600 stocks declining, raising questions about future market direction and asset allocation strategies [2][5]. Market Performance - A-shares saw a significant drop after reaching new highs, with a total trading volume of 1.58 trillion yuan, while sectors like military, tourism, and banking showed resilience [4][5]. - The Hong Kong stock market also faced volatility, with Cathay Securities International's stock fluctuating from a 90% increase to a 4% decrease [6][9]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Iran, and the triggering of the weak-side convertibility guarantee for the Hong Kong dollar contributed to market caution [9][10]. - Analysts believe that the impact of the Hong Kong dollar's situation on the market is relatively limited, as the fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong [11]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect a potential upward trend in the A-share market, driven by the resilience of the domestic economy and the undervaluation of Chinese assets, which may attract foreign investment [5][11]. - The upcoming earnings reports in July are anticipated to be a critical point for market performance, with a focus on sectors that show signs of recovery [11]. Investment Strategies - Two main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Financial sectors like banks and insurance, which offer stability and high dividends, are seen as attractive for short-term and long-term investments [15]. 2. Sectors with strong growth potential, such as rare earths, precious metals, and machinery, are also recommended for investment [15]. - A "barbell strategy" is suggested for navigating market volatility, combining stable dividend stocks with sectors poised for recovery [16]. Conclusion - The current market environment is characterized as a "slow bull" phase, where investors are encouraged to remain patient and strategically allocate assets to capitalize on future opportunities [16][18].

Market Overview - The market experienced a three-day upward trend, with the Wind All A Index breaking through previous consolidation levels, indicating a positive technical formation[1] - On June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.11%[2] Capital Flow - On June 25, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 31.572 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 32.554 billion yuan[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were securities, software development, and batteries, while the sectors with the highest outflows were chemical pharmaceuticals, agricultural chemicals, and shipping ports[3] Economic Indicators - The Ministry of Finance reported that national lottery sales in May totaled 57.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%[7] - The Yangtze River Delta region's foreign trade volume surpassed 100 trillion yuan, reaching 101.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% in the first five months of the year[6] Industry Developments - Shanghai aims to boost its marine intelligent robotics sector, targeting an increase in the shipbuilding and marine engineering industry's added value to over 45 billion yuan by 2030[5] - The telecommunications industry reported a total revenue of 748.8 billion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4%[9] Fund Dynamics - New consumption investment has become a hot topic in the capital market, with numerous new consumer companies experiencing significant stock price increases, attracting attention from major investment institutions[10] - As of June 24, the first batch of 26 new floating rate funds raised over 12.6 billion yuan, with 13 products already established[11]

Market Overview - On June 25, the market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.04% and the ChiNext Index rising by 3.11%. The total trading volume for the A-share market reached 1.64 trillion, an increase of 0.19 trillion from the previous day, representing a 13% increase in trading volume [1][2]. Sector Performance - The surge in the ChiNext Index was largely supported by the strong performance of the securities sector, driven by positive sentiment from the Hong Kong market, particularly following the approval of a virtual asset trading license for Guotai Junan International. This led to a nearly 200% increase in Guotai Junan International's stock price in Hong Kong, which in turn catalyzed the A-share securities sector [2]. - The defense and military industry also contributed to the market's rise, influenced by several catalysts, including the announcement of a military parade on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Anti-Japanese War and the meeting of defense ministers from Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states [2]. Market Dynamics - The market is positioned at a new equilibrium, with ample potential liquidity and strong market expectations. The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with a continuous easing of liquidity and a decline in risk-free interest rates, which provides sufficient potential liquidity for the equity market. There is a consensus on the need to stabilize the capital market, which has led to improved market sentiment [3]. - The report suggests that while the market is expected to experience increased volatility at this new equilibrium, the risk of a significant downturn is low due to the regulatory focus on market stability and the resilience of the economy [3]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two main investment themes: 1. Short-term investments in banks and insurance companies, which offer stability and high dividend yields, making them attractive in a fluctuating market. The robust operational stability and significant dividend payout ratios of banks are highlighted as key factors for sustained investment [4][6]. 2. Sectors with strong economic support, including rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals. The demand for precious metals is expected to rise due to increased central bank reserves and a long-term downward trend in global real interest rates [6]. Growth Risks - The report notes that the growth technology sector faces increasing risks of a pullback, particularly as the valuation of the computer industry has reached a historical high of 82.9 times as of June 25, 2025, which is comparable to previous market peaks. The report emphasizes that valuation changes are critical to market trends and that the technology sector may face significant valuation challenges moving forward [6].

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the accumulation of upward momentum in the A-share market, advocating for a focus on high dividend stocks, sectors supported by economic conditions, and active growth themes [3][4]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience upward momentum amidst fluctuations, with loose liquidity providing a floor but slow internal growth limiting rapid increases. The overall profit forecast for the A-share market indicates a confirmed improvement trend, which may become a significant force for upward breakthroughs [6][11]. - The report predicts that the overall growth will show a steady decline, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.0% for 2025, with quarterly estimates of 5.4% for Q1 and 4.7% for Q4 [10][11]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a preference for three main directions in industry allocation: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and liquidity [4][6]. 2. Sectors supported by economic conditions, including new materials, rare metals, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [4][6]. 3. Active growth themes such as AI and robotics, and military industry, which are anticipated to experience a rebound after initial suppression [4][6]. Economic Analysis - The report highlights the interplay of "slow variables" like consumer behavior and "fast variables" such as exports and real estate, indicating that consumer spending is expected to recover slowly while external demand may weaken [12][19]. - It notes that consumer spending is heavily reliant on government subsidies, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [20][22]. Export Outlook - The report indicates that global demand is under pressure due to tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S., which may hinder export growth. The forecast for export growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 1.8%, significantly lower than the previous year's 5.9% [46][47]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its export markets and shift towards domestic sales in response to external uncertainties [47][48]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with new home sales under pressure and a significant increase in unsold inventory. The forecast for real estate development investment has been revised down to a decline of 9.9% for 2025 [51][60]. - It highlights that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to face challenges without new policy stimuli, as transaction volumes and prices remain under pressure [53][56].

今日，A股主要指数小幅上涨，截至收盘，沪指涨0.04%报3388点，深证成指涨0.24%，创业板指涨 0.23%。 | 印刷 | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3388.81 | +1.41 | +0.04 | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 10175.59 | +24.16 | +0.24 | | 3000666 | 创业板指 | 2054.73 | +4.79 | +0.23 | | 000688 | 科创50 | 968.18 | +5.10 | +0.53 | | 050668 | 北证50 | 1393.44 | -9.11 | -0.65 | 全天成交1.22万亿元，较前一交易日缩量154亿元，全市场近3500股下跌。 AI眼镜板块走强，清越科技20CM涨停，则成电子涨超19%，中京电子、比依股份涨停，惠伦晶体、华 灿光电涨超6%，天邑股份涨超5%。 | 代码 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨幅� | | --- | --- | | 688496 清越科技 | 9.58 +1.60 +20 ...

今日11股封单资金超1亿元。 涨停战场： 从封单资金来看，11股封单资金超1亿元。协鑫能科居首，封单资金高达4.66亿元；创新医疗封单资金2.18亿元；南京熊猫、恒宝股份、中核科 技、融发核电等多股封单资金均超1亿元。 协鑫能科主营热电、光伏等能源类产业，公司一季度实现营收29.33亿元，同比增长21.49%；归母净利润2.54亿元，同比增长35.15%。公司今日发 布公告，上市公司、控股股东及实际控制人不存在应披露而未披露的重大事项或处于筹划阶段的重大事项，请投资者注意风险。 龙头点睛： 脑机接口掀起涨停潮 1.脑机接口 涨停个股：际华集团、麒盛科技、南京熊猫、荣泰健康、创新医疗等 协鑫能科以4.66亿元封单资金居首 据证券时报·数据宝统计，6月17日，从收盘涨停板封单量看，协鑫能科居于首位，封单量39.52万手；凤凰航运排名第二，封单量20.13万手；渤海 汽车、创新医疗、长青股份、南京熊猫（维权）、融发核电、招商南油等封单量均在15万手以上。 从连续涨停天数看，协鑫能科、金牛化工、准油股份、山东墨龙、贝肯能源等股斩获3连板；珠江钢琴、恒宝股份（维权）、苏利股份等股收获2 连板。 胜通能源：公司的经营产品 ...