Core Insights - The China-Europe Railway Express has surpassed 120,000 trips and sent goods worth over $490 billion, expanding its cargo categories to 53 and over 50,000 types of products [1] Group 1: Operational Changes - The full schedule China-Europe Railway Express has increased to over 1,000 trips annually, with 17 routes and 22 trains operating weekly, including 8 return trips [2] - The average transit time for the full schedule trains is reduced by over 30% compared to regular trains, exemplified by the Zhengzhou-Hamburg route taking 11 days and 19 hours [2] - The average cargo value per container for full schedule trains has increased by 41% compared to regular trains, with seasonal products being transported efficiently [3] Group 2: Network Development - As of October 2023, the China-Europe Railway Express operates through 128 cities in China, reaching 232 cities in 26 European countries and over 100 cities in 11 Asian countries [4] - The western corridor has accounted for over 50% of the total trips, with significant improvements in capacity and efficiency due to infrastructure upgrades [4][5] - The eastern corridor has seen a total of 36,727 trips, with the youngest port, Tongjiang, offering a shorter route to Europe by 809 kilometers [5] Group 3: Economic Impact - From 2013 to 2024, the transport value of the China-Europe Railway Express has increased approximately 33 times, with its share of total China-Europe trade rising from 0.4% to 8.5% [7] - The logistics efficiency provided by the railway has significantly reduced transportation time and costs for various goods, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese products in Europe [7] - The establishment of overseas warehouses in 25 EU countries has improved delivery times for Chinese goods, facilitating cross-border shopping [7]

记者从日前在长沙召开的全国促进民营经济发展壮大现场会上获悉，国家发展改革委将进一步拓宽市场准入空间，强化要素支持保障，加快组建国家创业投 资引导基金，切实增强民营企业获得感。（新华社） 商务部决定自12月1日起，对原产于日本、美国、韩国和马来西亚的进口聚苯硫醚所适用的反倾销措施进行期终复审调查。（新华财经） 11月制造业PMI升至49.2% 景气水平有所改善制造业企业信心增强 中国成为全球最大绿色债券市场今年绿债发行总额同比增长92%至1018亿美元全球占比达20% 主要产油国宣布维持明年前三个月暂停增产计划当前石油市场基本面稳健将根据市场情况灵活调整增产节奏 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会11月30日发布数据显示，11月，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气 水平有所改善；生产经营活动预期指数为53.1%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，制造业企业对近期市场发展信心有所增强。非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比 上月下降0.6个百分点。综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。（新华财经） 11月，钢铁行业PMI为48%，比上月下降1.2个百分点 ...

Core Insights - The China-Europe Railway Express has surpassed 120,000 trains and sent goods worth over $490 billion, expanding to 53 categories and over 50,000 types of products this year [1] Group 1: Operational Developments - The full schedule of the China-Europe Railway Express has increased to over 1,000 trains annually, with 17 routes and 22 trains operating weekly, including 8 return trains [2] - The full schedule trains are 30% faster on average compared to regular trains, with a notable example being the Zhengzhou-Hamburg route taking 11 days and 19 hours [3] - The full schedule trains provide more stable operations, allowing for precise logistics planning, as demonstrated by the weekly service from Xi'an to Budapest [4] Group 2: Value and Economic Impact - The average cargo value per container for full schedule trains has increased by 41% compared to regular trains, with significant seasonal goods being transported in time for the New Year shopping season [5] - The value of goods transported by the China-Europe Railway Express has grown approximately 33 times from 2013 to 2024, now accounting for 8.5% of total trade between China and Europe [10] - The logistics efficiency of the China-Europe Railway Express has significantly reduced transportation time and costs for industries reliant on imports, such as the wood industry in Jiangxi [10] Group 3: Network Expansion - The China-Europe Railway Express operates through three main corridors within China (West, Central, East) and has developed three corridors outside China (North, Central, South) [6][9] - The West Corridor has seen over 7,749 trains this year, accounting for more than 50% of the total, with improvements in capacity and efficiency at key ports [7] - The East Corridor has also been active, with 36,727 trains cumulatively, and the introduction of new routes has enhanced connectivity to Europe [8]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1][2] - The production index and new orders index for November are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, with increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in both production and demand [2] - Small enterprises show significant improvement with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking the highest level in six months [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for November is at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [4] - The service industry is experiencing a seasonal decline due to the high base effect from the previous month’s holidays, contributing to the drop in the non-manufacturing index [4] - The construction industry shows signs of recovery with a business activity index of 49.6%, up 0.5 percentage points, and a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, indicating increased confidence among construction firms [4][5] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for November is at 53.1%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - Analysts predict that the manufacturing sector will continue to stabilize and recover, supported by year-end project accelerations and effective policy implementations [3][5] - The service sector maintains a positive outlook despite a slight decline in the business activity expectation index, which remains at a high level of 55.9% [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in production and demand [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains above the critical point at 50.1%, indicating continued growth in this sector [2] Group 2: Small and Medium Enterprises - The PMI for small enterprises has significantly increased to 49.1%, up by 2.0 percentage points, marking the highest level in six months [2] - Medium-sized enterprises show a slight improvement with a PMI of 48.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month [2] - Large enterprises, however, experienced a decline in PMI to 49.3%, down by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a drop in economic activity [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in the sector's economic performance [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index has also dropped to 49.5%, down by 0.7 percentage points, influenced by factors such as the end of holiday effects [3][4] - The construction sector shows signs of recovery with a business activity index of 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, indicating improved confidence among construction firms [4] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 53.1%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 55.9%, despite a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, suggesting that service sector firms remain optimistic about future market conditions [4] Group 5: Policy Impact - The implementation of new policy financial tools has resulted in the allocation of 500 billion yuan, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on key sectors such as digital economy and infrastructure [5] - The additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds allocated to local governments is expected to further stimulate investment in manufacturing and infrastructure, contributing to an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, although the manufacturing economic activity did not exceed expectations, there were still positive factors. The emerging industries' prosperity rebounded first, the inventory problem caused by supply - demand imbalance was continuously digested, and the price upward trend remained unchanged with a continuous repair expectation for next year. The impact of new policy - based financial instruments on the industry and market was still in the early stages, and the actual work volume needed further verification next year [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Demand Drags Production, and De - stocking Exceeds Re - stocking - The drag of previous supply - demand imbalance on production emerged. The production index was weak in the past two months, and the procurement volume was below the critical value for two consecutive months. The "new order index - production index" reached a peak in September [13]. - Manufacturing enterprises have been actively de - stocking for nearly half a year. The inventory growth rate was already at a historically low level, and the downward space was limited. Compared with previous inventory cycles, this cycle had two characteristics: the peak was much lower and the inventory state switched frequently at a low level. The active re - stocking period was short, and the active de - stocking period was long. This was favorable for the bond market [16]. 3.2 Differentiation between Traditional Manufacturing and Emerging Industries - Traditional manufacturing has been in a downturn since April, with PMI below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. However, emerging industries showed improvement since September. The EPMI index of emerging industries was above the boom - bust line for 3 consecutive months, and the BCI index of high - quality private enterprises also rose above the line, with sub - items such as corporate financing environment and investment forward - looking index improving significantly [19]. - The improvement in the prosperity of emerging industries boosted the employment market. The BCI corporate recruitment forward - looking index improved, and the "Internet unemployment benefit search index" decreased. The 500 billion yuan new policy - based financial instruments, fully invested by the end of October, supported over 2,300 projects with a total investment of about 7 trillion yuan, showing a strong pulling effect on emerging industries [19][25]. 3.3 Rare Contraction in Service Industry Prosperity - This month, the non - manufacturing PMI dropped 0.6 points to 49.5, falling below the critical value for the first time excluding public health events. The construction industry was at the bottom, and the service industry was the main drag. The service industry PMI dropped 0.7 points to 49.5, which was a rare contraction. This was related to seasonal factors and the real - estate sales slump [5][26]. - Some industries in the service industry, such as railway transportation, telecommunications, and finance, were in a high - prosperity range, while real - estate and residential services were below the critical point [28][29].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the eighth consecutive month below the threshold line[4] - The new orders index and finished goods inventory index for November are 49.2% and 47.3%, respectively, with new orders increasing by 0.4 percentage points and finished goods inventory decreasing by 0.8 percentage points[5] - The "production momentum" index (new orders - finished goods inventory) is at 1.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production momentum[5] Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - Manufacturing firms are actively reducing inventory, with the finished goods inventory index significantly below seasonal levels[15] - The raw material purchase price index is at 53.6%, up 1.1 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 48.2%, indicating a widening price gap that compresses profit margins[20] - The "raw material purchase price - factory price" gap is 5.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points, further squeezing profit margins for enterprises[20] Group 3: Export and Demand Trends - The new export orders index is at 47.6%, showing a recovery of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, although still below the threshold line[9] - The recent trade agreement between China and the U.S. has reduced trade friction, contributing to improved export conditions[9] - The forecast for U.S. holiday shopping indicates a record participation of 187 million people, which may positively impact demand for exports[9] Group 4: Sectoral Performance and Risks - Small enterprises show the fastest recovery, with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, reaching the highest level in five years[28] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating a contraction in the sector[37] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[41]

Core Points - The launch of the Chongqing-Hungary Budapest scheduled China-Europe freight train marks a significant development in international logistics, with a focus on efficiency and reliability [1] - The train service will operate bi-weekly, reducing transportation time by approximately 30% compared to regular services, enhancing the overall effectiveness of the China-Europe freight corridor [1] - The route will take about 11 days, passing through several countries, and aims to facilitate bilateral trade between China and Hungary, as well as other Central and Eastern European nations [1] Summary by Category Logistics Efficiency - The scheduled freight train service features fixed schedules, routes, and operational times, which allows for better control over port operations and transfers [1] - The initial plan by China Railway Chengdu Bureau is to run one train every two weeks, significantly improving logistics efficiency for various industries [1] Trade Facilitation - The service is expected to enhance trade between China and Hungary, while also benefiting other Central and Eastern European countries such as Slovakia, Austria, and Serbia [1] - It will enable faster access to quality European products, including Hungarian wine, Polish dairy products, and Czech crystal, into the Chinese market [1] Industry Impact - The new freight service provides a more stable logistics option for local industries in Chongqing, particularly in electronics, automotive, and equipment manufacturing [1] - It supports production organization, logistics trade, and capital turnover for businesses involved in cross-border trade [1]

Core Insights - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has achieved a significant milestone, with cumulative container cargo shipments exceeding 5 million TEUs as of November 29, 2023, marking a year-to-date increase of 130,000 TEUs, which is a 55.3% year-on-year growth [1][2] Group 1: Cargo Composition and Direction - The export cargo primarily consists of chemical products, machinery parts, and new energy vehicles, while the imports mainly include bauxite, coal, and grain [2] - Shipments from the port to the inland (upstream) totaled 657,000 TEUs, and shipments from the inland to the port (downstream) reached 651,000 TEUs, achieving a balanced two-way shipment with year-on-year increases of 58.9% and 57.1%, respectively [2] Group 2: Infrastructure and Capacity Enhancements - The company has completed electrification upgrades on key railways, enhancing mainline transport capacity by 6.5%, and has upgraded 28 freight yards, increasing handling capacity by 33 million tons annually [4] - The company has coordinated with port enterprises to expand dedicated lines at ports, adding 10 million tons of handling capacity each year [4] Group 3: Service Innovations and Operational Efficiency - To expand the reach of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, the company has developed category-specific iron-sea express products and established a multi-modal transport service model in collaboration with logistics companies [4][7] - The number of cross-bureau scheduled train routes has increased from 2 in 2019 to 15 by 2025, with 57.7% of the current 26 cross-bureau scheduled train routes connecting major southwestern cities [6][7] Group 4: Economic Impact - In the first three quarters of the year, the Western region's imports and exports through the Western Land-Sea New Corridor reached 611.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.3% growth and contributing 3.4 percentage points to the region's foreign trade growth [7]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 戴琨 资格编号：S0120525070002 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 弱势回升显现，景气修复仍待巩固 ——11 月 PMI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 11 月 30 日 核心观点：11 月 PMI 显示经济景气延续弱势，制造业虽小幅回升但仍处收缩区间， 服务业明显走弱，整体修复态势偏弱。制造业 PMI 回升至 49.2%，但仍弱于往年 同期水平，我们认为这既反映了"十一"假期后的季节性修复有限、前期"以旧换 新"对订单的拉动效应边际减退，也与全球需求仍偏低迷有关。分项指标上，生产 与新订单虽小幅改善但仍低于荣枯线，企业继续主动去库、用工偏谨慎，显示制造 业内生复苏动能依旧不足。非制造业 PMI 回落至 49.5%，重回荣枯线下，叠加假 期效应消退，服务业动能减弱、建筑业虽有回升但仍偏弱，新订单与库存指标均指 向需求 ...