Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping sector, particularly highlighting the potential for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates to strengthen in the upcoming months [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that tanker rates have exceeded expectations during the off-season, with VLCC rates expected to perform strongly from September to December due to reduced exports from Iran and increased production in the Middle East [4]. - The report recommends specific companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and highlights the potential for consolidation in the Chinese shipping industry [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of freight volumes in rail and highway transport, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - VLCC rates increased by 32% this week, reaching $45,800 per day, driven by limited supply and increased demand from the Atlantic market [4]. - The report notes that the average export volume from Iran has decreased to 1.3-1.5 million barrels per day, down from 1.7-1.9 million barrels per day in July [4]. - The Suez crude oil tanker rates rose by 15% to $59,563 per day, supported by strong demand from the West African market [4]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 4.9% to 1,944 points, primarily due to a decline in large vessel rates, while smaller vessels showed stronger performance [5]. - The report remains optimistic about the Capesize bulk carrier market in the second half of the year, citing expected increases in shipments from major miners [4]. Air Transport - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policy from the Civil Aviation Administration is likely to optimize competition in the airline industry, benefiting airline profitability in the long term [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, with a focus on the potential for improved earnings due to supply constraints and demand recovery [4]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates a price increase in the express delivery sector driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with expectations for sustained profitability in the e-commerce delivery segment [4]. - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong potential for recovery and valuation improvement [4]. Rail and Highway Transport - Data from the Ministry of Transport indicates that rail freight volume increased by 1.22% week-on-week, while highway freight traffic rose by 3.06% [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yield stocks and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

开通30多年来，大秦铁路坚持创新驱动，实现了万吨、2万吨重载列车常态化开行，形成了一整套具有 自主知识产权的重载运输体系，并成功运用于瓦日、浩吉等多条重载铁路。2014年，长近4公里的3万吨 重载列车在大秦铁路试验成功，我国成为世界上仅有的几个掌握3万吨铁路重载技术的国家之一。 同时，大秦铁路发挥运量大、能耗低的优势，助力绿色发展。据测算，铁路每增加1亿吨货运量，可比 燃油汽车完成同等运量节省能耗约110万吨标准煤，少排放二氧化碳270.6万吨。大秦铁路完成90亿吨运 量，相当于节约能耗9900万吨标准煤，减少二氧化碳排放2.4亿吨。 记者从国铁太原局获悉：8月21日9时50分，随着73003次2万吨重载列车开行，大秦铁路累计货运量突破 90亿吨。 （文章来源：人民日报） 大秦铁路西起山西大同、东至河北秦皇岛，全长653公里，承担着300多家主要电厂和6000多家企业的生 产用煤运输任务，煤炭运量占全国铁路煤运总量的1/5，是我国西煤东运的重要能源通道。 ...

Core Insights - In July, the national railway completed a passenger volume of 455 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [1] - The passenger turnover reached 177.07 billion person-kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [1] - For the first seven months of the year, the total passenger volume was 2.691 billion, up by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - The passenger turnover for the same period was 976.65 billion person-kilometers, showing a growth of 3.3% [1] - In July, the railway freight volume reached 452 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1] - The freight turnover was 304.22 billion ton-kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5% [1] - Fixed asset investment in railways for the first seven months amounted to 433 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - The planning and construction of railways are progressing efficiently [1]

Core Insights - The national railway system in China has successfully transported 441 million passengers during the summer travel period from July 1 to July 31, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1] - Daily average passenger transport reached 14.21 million, indicating a stable and orderly railway transport system [1] Passenger Transport Capacity - The railway system has effectively increased passenger transport capacity by implementing a summer temporary train operation schedule based on the third quarter train running diagram [1] - Daily average train operations have been arranged to 11,416 trains, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [1] Tourism and Cross-Border Travel - A total of 266 tourist trains have been operated during the summer travel period, stimulating consumption potential [1] - Cross-border travel has been actively organized, with the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway transporting 2.794 million cross-border passengers and the China-Laos railway transporting 18,000 cross-border passengers [1] Key Material Transport - The railway system has effectively ensured the transportation of key materials, particularly coal, to meet the demand of power generation enterprises [1] - In July, the national railway transported 120 million tons of electric coal, with the coal supply for 371 railway-direct supply power plants maintaining a stable consumption duration of over 25 days [1]

Core Insights - The railway freight volume in Latvia for the first half of 2025 is reported at 4.409 million tons, representing a decline of 27.8% compared to the same period last year [1] - International railway freight volume decreased to 3.667 million tons, down 31.4% year-on-year, while domestic railway freight volume fell to 742,000 tons, a decrease of 2.4% [1] - Transit freight volume saw a significant drop to 2.866 million tons, down 36.8% year-on-year, with port railway freight volume at 2.378 million tons, declining by 41.7%, whereas land transport transit freight volume increased by 5.9% to 488,000 tons [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the stable growth in cargo throughput at the Erenhot railway port this year, with a significant increase in both import and export volumes [1] - As of July 26, the total import and export volume reached 10.0422 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, and surpassing the 10 million tons mark four days earlier than last year [1] - The China-Europe freight train service contributed 2.7499 million tons to the total volume, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, indicating a positive trend in both quantity and quality [1]

Group 1: Strategic Positioning and Goals - The company aims to become a leading modern logistics enterprise with strong regional competitiveness [2] - Strategic goals include supporting national development strategies and transforming from a traditional railway carrier to a comprehensive logistics service provider [2][3] Group 2: Business Development Plans - **Railway Transportation**: Focus on expanding the railway network in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, optimizing coal transportation routes, and enhancing the railway infrastructure [3][4] - **Supply Chain**: Promote multimodal logistics integration and reduce logistics costs through resource consolidation [3][5] - **Wine Sector**: Focus on inventory management and planning for future business transformation [5] Group 3: Railway Operations and Capacity - The company has a designed railway capacity of 100 million tons, with a projected railway throughput of 72.22 million tons in 2024, representing a 9.09% year-on-year increase [4] - The railway network spans 315 kilometers in operation and 642 kilometers in total, facilitating connections to major national rail lines [4] Group 4: Market Conditions and Challenges - The company faces a complex international environment and insufficient domestic demand, but economic indicators remain stable [3][4] - Future growth in railway throughput is expected to continue, with a focus on market responsiveness and cost reduction strategies [4] Group 5: Supply Chain Trade Services - The supply chain trade service relies on railway transportation, with low gross margins impacting net profit [5] - No new supply chain contracts were signed for 2024, focusing instead on completing existing contracts from 2023 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption [2][104]. - The negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices, sharp decline in the stock market - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has come to an end [2][104]. - Pay attention to the progress of future China - US trade negotiations and whether the fentanyl tariff can be reduced to 0, as well as possible policy adjustments for weak business reception activities that may affect consumption [2][104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which aims to activate markets such as automobiles, culture and tourism, and elderly care through various measures [8]. - On June 26, the Financial Regulatory Administration and others issued the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries", aiming to build a high - quality inclusive finance system and solve the financing problems of small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and new citizens [8]. - The second - quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was held on June 23. It was more cautious about the world economic growth momentum and more optimistic about the domestic economy. The probability of a recent reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut is low [8]. - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.1%. However, the profit structure had highlights, with the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 7.2% [9][10]. - Israel and Iran announced a formal cease - fire, leading to a significant decline in domestic and international oil prices recently [13]. 3.2 Medium - term High - Frequency: Consumption and Production Show Differentiated Recovery Characteristics 3.2.1 Consumption: Policy Stimulus Shows Remarkable Results - As of the week of June 22, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 30.0% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 1.4% year - on - year [16][19]. - As of the week of June 13, the retail volume and retail amount of three major household appliances increased by 24.6% and 13.5% year - on - year respectively [16][25]. 3.2.2 Transportation: Supply Chain Resilience is Prominent - As of the week of June 22, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic volume increased by 0.7% year - on - year [17][27]. - As of the week of June 22, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed increased by 1.7% year - on - year, and as of June 27, the average passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 2.3% year - on - year [17][36]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization: Infrastructure Chain is Stronger than Chemical Chain - As of June 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 pct, and as of June 26, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 25.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [17][49]. - As of June 26, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 pct, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5 pct [17][53]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Continuously Under Pressure - As of June 27, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the number of transactions decreased by 2.0% year - on - year [18][62]. - As of June 22, the listing price index of second - hand houses in national cities decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [18][67]. 3.2.5 Price: Commodity Prices are Under Pressure - As of June 27, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.8% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [18][75]. - As of June 27, the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 67.4 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [18][81]. 3.3 Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market: Structural Easing Coexists with Cross - Month Pressure - On June 27, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.0BP, + 0.3BP, + 0.6BP, and + 1.3BP compared to June 20 [2][89]. - On June 27, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.16/7.17, down 68/147 pips compared to June 20 [94]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: The Duration of Credit Bond Funds has Decreased - As of June 29, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.81%, a decrease of 1.16 pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate's percentile within the year was below 5% [96]. - As of June 27, the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds were about 4.7 years and 5.1 years respectively, an increase of about 0.12 years compared to the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were about 1.9 years and 2.1 years respectively, a decrease of about 0.19 years compared to the previous week [97][98]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. Currently, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds is close to a historical low, and the cost - effectiveness of investing in interest - rate bonds is low. Among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - effectiveness than treasury bonds [104]. - Continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks. The low interest rates in the domestic market may drive up the valuations of high - dividend stocks [104].

Core Insights - The total cargo volume of the Laos section of the China-Laos Railway reached 3 million tons as of June 28, marking an 8.8% increase compared to the same period last year, successfully achieving the halfway target for both time and task [1] - The variety of transported goods has expanded significantly, from over 100 types initially to more than 3,000 types, including agricultural products, mineral products, and industrial goods, contributing positively to the economic development of Laos and neighboring countries [1] Group 1 - The company has implemented measures to ensure the transportation of agricultural products, facilitating the entry of Laos' specialty agricultural products into broader markets, thus promoting increased production and income for local farmers [2] - As of June 28, the railway has transported a total of 134,000 tons of fruits this year, with a peak daily transportation volume reaching 3,343 tons [2] - The company has adjusted its monthly, weekly, and daily cargo transport plans based on agricultural production cycles and transportation needs, ensuring timely and stable transport of agricultural products [2] Group 2 - The company has optimized its transportation organization model, increasing the traction capacity of freight trains from 2,500 tons to 2,800 tons, thereby enhancing transport capacity [3] - Dynamic adjustments to freight rates and improved loading and unloading organization have effectively increased the speed of cargo handling and reduced logistics costs [3] - Coordination with customs departments and neighboring countries' railway departments has been enhanced to streamline customs processes and address cross-border transport bottlenecks, with plans to launch international freight trains soon [3]

Group 1: Railway Freight Transport - National railway freight volume for the first five months reached 2.121 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.73%, with May's volume at 440 million tons, up 0.70% [1] - China National Railway Group reported a freight volume of 1.642 billion tons for the same period, growing by 3.10%, with May's volume at 344 million tons, an increase of 1.78% [1] - The growth rate of freight transport has slowed down compared to previous quarters, with Q1 and the first four months showing year-on-year increases of 1.01% and 2.00% respectively [1] Group 2: Railway Passenger Transport - National railway passenger volume for the first five months reached 1.863 billion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 7.32%, with May's volume significantly boosted to 406 million passengers, up 12.61% [2] - The average daily operation of passenger trains reached 11,200, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a record high of 13,800 trains on May 1, transporting 23.12 million passengers [2] - The railway department has optimized the 12306 system and introduced new ticketing measures, expanding new ticket types to 71 routes and enhancing services like "quiet carriages" on 92 train sets [2] Group 3: International Railway Developments - As of May 22, the China-Laos Railway has transported over 8.45 million passengers and 993,000 tons of goods this year, marking a year-on-year growth of 27%, with cross-border goods at 2.34 million tons, up 8% [3] - The national railway is expected to achieve a passenger volume of 4.28 billion by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.91%, with the first five months completing 40.42% of the annual target [3] - Anticipation of increased passenger flow during the summer and National Day holidays, with expectations of surpassing the same period in 2024 [3]