Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: April 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market is experiencing shock adjustments after releasing short - term pressure, and the main contract is shifting to the far - month. Consider 5 - 9 reverse spreads. The external market has support, and attention should be paid to subsequent planting progress and macro - changes [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market sentiment has eased, and Zhengzhou cotton is in shock adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,293 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream cotton yarn and grey cloth markets are generally weak, with inventory accumulation and price declines [7] - The US dollar index has weakened due to the uncertainty of the Trump administration's import tariff policy. USDA's weekly export signing report shows a decline, but shipments are still at a peak. New - season planting progress is slightly slow, and the drought index is high. The domestic downstream demand is tepid, and the inventory pressure is not significant. After the release of short - term pressure, Zhengzhou cotton will mainly be in shock adjustment, and the main contract is shifting to the far - month. Consider 5 - 9 reverse spreads [8] 2. Industry News - In March 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.402 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 12.4%. From January to March 2025, the cumulative exports were 66.282 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1% [9] - As of the week of April 8, 2025, CFTC's non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures decreased, short positions continued to decline, and the total ICE positions decreased. The net long ratio was - 13.2%, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month and a 42.9 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventories, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]

Industry - The industry covered in the report is cotton [1] Report Date - The report is dated April 11, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers are Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Amid the ongoing round - based game between China and the US, Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,144 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn and cotton fabric markets are cautious, with reduced trading volumes [7] - Trump has suspended the reciprocal tariff policy for most countries for 90 days for negotiations, still imposing a 10% global tariff during this period. China has raised the tariff rate on imported goods from the US from 34% to 84%, and Trump has increased tariffs on China to 125%. The White House will increase tariffs on small parcels from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong to 90% starting May 2. The current high tariff rates have led to an effective decoupling, but the re - export trade window remains. As of April 8, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states is 4%, slightly slower than last year's 5%. Cotton spring sowing has fully started in three major cotton - growing areas in China. After the release of pessimistic sentiment, the commodity market has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the weekly US cotton export contract signing and the USDA's April supply - demand report [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,144 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton. The basis quotes for cotton in different regions and contracts vary. The cotton yarn market is cautious, and the cotton fabric market has significantly reduced trading volumes [7] - **Policy and International Situation**: Trump's tariff policies and China's counter - measures have led to high tariff rates and an effective decoupling, but the re - export trade window remains. The cotton planting rate in the US is slightly slower than last year, and cotton spring sowing has started in China. After the release of pessimistic sentiment, the commodity market has rebounded. Attention should be paid to US cotton export contracts and the USDA report [8] 2. Industry News - In the US, new cotton sowing has started, with a planting rate of 4% as of April 6, 2025. Texas and Arizona have the highest planting rates at 6% and 13% respectively. In China, cotton spring sowing has fully started in three major cotton - growing areas, and local governments are promoting measures to improve cotton quality [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventory levels, and exchange rates, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][23][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 4 月 9 日 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 关税博弈升级，郑棉继续下跌。现货方面最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 14815 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 87 元/吨。 ...

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: April 3, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The rebound of US cotton prices has boosted the rise of Zhengzhou cotton futures. The current spot price of 328-grade cotton is 14,874 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream market has shown some improvement in demand, but there are still concerns about the end of the traditional peak season after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival [7]. - The projected cotton planting area in the US for the 2025/26 season is 9.867 million acres, slightly lower than market expectations and the February forecast. This reduction in planting area provides some support for US cotton prices. In the domestic market, downstream product inventories are low and production remains stable. Spinning mills with low raw material inventories have increased their demand for cotton in the short term, providing support for cotton prices. However, the market is still waiting for a clear direction, and attention should be paid to the impact of external markets and tariff policies [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: US cotton prices continued to rebound, driving up Zhengzhou cotton futures. The spot price of 328-grade cotton rose, and the basis for different grades of cotton in Xinjiang was reported. The cotton yarn market remained stable, with spinning mills selling products at reasonable prices. The downstream orders were short-term sustainable, and some spinning mills planned to have a 2 - 3 day holiday during the Tomb-Sweeping Festival. The cotton fabric market had rigid demand, but overall production and sales were difficult to balance due to weak downstream demand, and the loom operating rate remained stable [7]. - **Operational Suggestions**: The reduction in the projected US cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season supports US cotton prices. In the domestic market, downstream demand has improved, and cotton prices are supported. However, the market is waiting for a clear direction. Attention should be paid to the actual planting situation in the US, the drought in Texas, the potential summer demand, and the end of the traditional peak season after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival. Short-term market direction depends on external markets and tariff policies [8]. 2. Industry News - The projected cotton planting area in the US for the 2025/26 season is 9.867 million acres, lower than the February forecast of 10 million acres and the 2024 final planting area of 11.182 million acres [9]. - As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton reached 3.1825 million tons, accounting for 101.4% of the estimated annual cotton production, 19.5% faster than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 101.44%, 19% faster year-on-year, and that of Pima cotton was 100.5%, 49% faster year-on-year [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts related to the cotton market, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, commercial and industrial inventories, and currency exchange rates [16][18][20]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: April 2, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market situation: After the release of the intended cotton planting area in the US, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated within a range. The latest price index for Grade 328 cotton was 14,864 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn and fabric markets were weak, with insufficient market confidence in the future [7]. - US planting area: The US cotton planting area for the 2025/26 season is 9.867 million acres, slightly lower than the previous market estimate and the February forecast of 10 million acres. The reduction in planting area may support the price of US cotton [8][9]. - Domestic market: Downstream finished - product inventory is low and the operating rate is stable. Spinning mills have increased their rigid - demand purchases of cotton recently. The cotton price has support at the bottom. The market is concerned about potential summer demand and the end of the traditional peak season after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The short - term market is waiting for a directional choice [8]. Group 3: Industry News - US planting area report: The US cotton planting area for the 2025/26 season is 9.867 million acres, compared with 10 million acres predicted in the February 2025 outlook forum and 11.182 million acres in 2024 [9]. - US cotton inspection: As of the week ending March 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.1825 million tons, accounting for 101.4% of the estimated annual output, 19.5% faster than the same period last year [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes various charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [16][18][20]