科技巨头：盈利强劲难掩股价疲态 过去一周，美国大型科技公司的财报再次展示了其强大的盈利能力。 对于市场参与者而言，刚刚过去的一周无疑是"信息量巨大但又混乱不堪的"。 高盛对冲基金业务主管Tony Pasquariello在一份最新的报告中如此形容。 他认为， 尽管许多关键事件尘埃落定，但市场留下的问题似乎比答案更多，这使得短期内的风险回报变得异常棘手。 最新动态显示，市场正努力消化多重矛盾信号。一方面，新一轮的关税波动和一份"明显糟糕"的非农就业报告，共同给宏观经济前景蒙上了阴影，并直接引发 了周五短期国债收益率的急剧下跌。 另一方面，美国大型科技公司交出了又一份强劲的季度财报，但其股价的平淡反应却暗示，市场对利好的定价已相当充分，投资者的预期也变得更为苛刻。与 此同时，小盘股遭遇了自关键时期以来最糟糕的一周，其剧烈抛售进一步加剧了市场的担忧情绪。 这些 相互冲突的信号，叠加夏季市场典型的低流动性等，共同构成了一幅复杂的图景。 尽管长期结构性因素或许依然乐观，但短期内，交易员们正面临着一 个充满挑战的交易环境。 根据高盛的测算，剔除英伟达后的"科技七巨头"第二季度盈利同比增长高达26%，而标普500指数其余成 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in major U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq, which fell by 2.5% amid disappointing employment data and renewed inflation concerns [1] - Major tech stocks experienced substantial losses, with Amazon down over 6%, Nvidia down over 3%, and Tesla, Meta, Google, and Apple all declining by more than 2% [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, falling short of the expected 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by nearly 260,000, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Group 2 - Historically, August has been a challenging month for the U.S. stock market, particularly for growth stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite Index showing an average monthly gain of only 0.3% since 1971, making it the second worst month of the year [1] - The market sentiment is further weakened by the fading hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, alongside rising inflation concerns [1]

Group 1 - Hedge funds are maintaining a cautious stance, continuing to sell U.S. stocks for four consecutive weeks, particularly in the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors, at the fastest pace in a year [1] - Retail investors have been net buyers of stocks for 23 consecutive trading days, contrasting with the cautious approach of hedge funds [1] - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before easing policies [1] Group 2 - Hedge funds reduced stock exposure and increased short positions in late March ahead of expected tariff announcements, a strategy that proved wise as global markets outperformed U.S. markets [2] - Despite missing the recent market rally, hedge funds have avoided significant losses by lowering leverage in advance, allowing them to sidestep forced participation in rebounds [2] - As of June, hedge funds' performance was flat, with a return rate of 7.8%, ranking in the 72nd percentile for the past six months since January 2000 [4] Group 3 - Seasonal patterns indicate that August and September are typically the worst-performing months of the year, which, combined with high valuations and tariff pressures, could pose challenges for the S&P 500 index [5] - Historical data shows that these two months perform particularly poorly during the first year of a presidential term, suggesting potential difficulties ahead before a strong year-end rally [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of weakness, with recent non-farm payroll data indicating a sharp decline in job growth, which has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5][6]. Labor Market Data - In July, non-farm employment increased by only 73,000, far below the expected 104,000, and previous months' figures were revised down by nearly 260,000 [6][8]. - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [6]. - Over the past three months, the average monthly job growth was only 35,000, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [1][5]. Economic Implications - The slowdown in job growth and rising unemployment are contributing to risks for consumer and business spending, which are already showing signs of deceleration [5][9]. - The labor market's deterioration is increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, especially in light of the conflicting economic signals [7][8]. Sector-Specific Insights - Job losses were particularly pronounced in manufacturing, professional and business services, and government sectors, with federal government jobs decreasing for six consecutive months [8][9]. - Despite the overall job market weakness, demand in other sectors remains relatively healthy, with job vacancies still above pre-pandemic levels [9][10]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the disappointing non-farm payroll data, U.S. stock index futures experienced significant declines, reflecting a surge in selling sentiment on Wall Street [8][12]. - Historical data suggests that August is typically a challenging month for stock performance, with the S&P 500 index often experiencing declines during this period [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The outgoing EU competition chief states that the EU should not strive for a US-style telecommunications market, indicating a divergence in regulatory approaches between the EU and the US [1] Group 1: EU Competition Policy - EU competition policy evolves with market changes, reflecting the need for adaptability in regulatory frameworks [1] - Both the EU and the US aim to tackle large technology companies, highlighting a shared concern over market dominance [1]

Group 1 - Microsoft has become the second company globally to surpass a market capitalization of $4 trillion, following Nvidia [1] - The top three companies by market capitalization are Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, each exceeding 20 trillion RMB [1] - Both Microsoft and Meta reported earnings that exceeded market expectations, with Microsoft showing a revenue growth of 18.10% and earnings per share growth of 23.73% [1][2] Group 2 - Meta's revenue growth reached 21.61% and earnings per share growth was 38.37%, significantly surpassing market forecasts [2] - The strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta contributed to the Nasdaq index reaching a new historical high [2] - The valuation of major US stock indices exceeds 30 times, with Nasdaq around 40 times, indicating a high valuation compared to A-share and Hong Kong markets [2] Group 3 - The continued rise of the tech giants is linked to three significant technological transformations since the 21st century [3] - Companies like Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia have benefited from their respective technological advancements, leading to substantial stock price increases [3] - The combined market capitalization of Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple exceeds 80 trillion RMB, comparable to the total market capitalization of the A-share market when including Amazon [3] Group 4 - The sustainability of the tech giants' growth will determine whether they face a repeat of the dot-com bubble burst from the early 2000s [4] - A significant divergence between earnings growth and stock price increases could signal a potential valuation bubble [4]

Group 1 - Meta and Microsoft saw significant stock price increases, with a combined market value surge of $400 billion in one day, equivalent to over seven times the market value of JPMorgan Chase or Walmart [1] - Microsoft's stock rose nearly 5%, pushing its market value to approximately $4 trillion, making it the second company to reach this milestone after Nvidia [1] - Meta's stock increased by 11.25%, nearing a $2 trillion market value, driven by strong performance attributed to AI-related growth [1] Group 2 - Microsoft reported an 18% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $76 billion, and plans to invest over $30 billion in the next three months to expand its cloud service infrastructure to meet AI demand [1][2] - Meta's quarterly revenue surged by 22% to nearly $50 billion, with daily active users approaching 3.5 billion [2] - Year-to-date stock performance shows Nvidia up 30%, Microsoft up 27%, and Meta up 32%, contrasting with Apple's 18% decline [2] Group 3 - The combined market value of Apple, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft reached $11.4 trillion, nearly matching the total market capitalization of all listed companies in the EU, which is approximately $12.5 trillion [3]

中证报中证网讯（记者 王雪青）7月31日晚间，长盛基金社保业务管理部基金经理杨秋鹏在"中证点金 汇"直播间表示："下半年A股权益市场有望稳中向好，但市场结构性分化或进一步加剧。我们持续看好 成长板块的投资机会，AI算力应用、国产半导体设备材料、创新药等领域都值得重点关注。" 杨秋鹏表示，科技行业既是国内经济动能转换和产业升级的主要方向，也是国际竞争的战略重点。虽然 这个板块的发展难免面临波折，但政策支持力度大、驱动密集，具备长期投资价值。 随着海外算力投入持续增长，相关公司的高业绩增速正在快速消化估值。在国产算力领域，随着国内先 进制程不断取得突破，芯片互联技术和软件生态加速完善，国产AI芯片正在快速抢占市场份额。 在半导体设备与材料领域，受益于先进制程建设需求的增长，以及国产存储产品全球市场份额的快速提 升，国产半导体设备需求保持高速增长态势，半导体材料的国产化和用量增长趋势也在持续深化。 在AI应用方面，中国企业在图片编辑、视频制作等细分领域具备显著的场景优势。多家公司已在全球 市场占据领先地位，并形成了可观的收入规模。预计未来将有更多具备场景优势的中国企业崭露头角， 相关业绩也将逐步体现在上市公司财务报 ...

美联储立场坚定，不退缩 美联储没有退缩。尽管有两位备受瞩目的异议者投票支持降息，但鲍威尔主席坚守阵地，将目前的立场 视为"适度限制性"——这是一个编码短语，表明美联储没有立即转向的紧迫性。这是一个市场尚未完全 消化的信息。9月份的降息押注被削减，12月成为下一个可行的窗口，交易者甚至开始低声议论潜在的 50个基点降息，以弥补失去的时间（如果数据允许）。 鲍威尔的措辞比预期更为激进，外汇市场也随之做出反应。美元飙升了近1%，达到两个月高点；本周 欧元下跌了近3%，跌至1.1400，这是三年多来最急剧的跌幅。拥挤的美元空头交易突然平仓，尤其是 在G10高贝塔货币中。澳元、新西兰元、瑞典克朗——所有这些货币都下跌了1%以上。欧元/美元的上 涨尝试可能会继续受挫，该货币对现在已经突破了技术缺口。 在尘埃落定之前，完全的突破可能会将我们推向1.12甚至1.11。 GDP数据：光鲜外表下的疲软核心 周三的市场并非一个平静的总结，而是一场多道菜的宏观盛宴——有些菜肴"过熟"，有些则"过时"，最 终，每个人都感到有些"不适"。 GDP数据？当然令人叹为观止。第二季度年化增长3.0%，远超预期的2.4%，这不容小觑。但深入探 ...

美联储最新利率决议出炉。 北京时间7月31日凌晨2点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率区间维持在4.25%—4.50%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储连续第五次议息会议决定暂停降息，且并未发 出9月可能降息的信号。 相比利率决议，美联储的内部分歧成为本次议息会议更大的看点。两名美联储官员在本次会议上投出了反对票，都支持降息25个基点。有分析指出，这凸显联储决 策者对关税影响的共识在破裂。 随后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话释放了偏"鹰派"的政策信号。 他表示，美联储"尚未就9月是否调整政策做出任何决定"。这一表态令市场对9月降息 甚至年底前再次降息的预期降温 ，美股三大指数一度集体跳水，盘中由涨转跌。 美联储宣布 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变，这是美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 回顾此前，美联储自去年9月起连续三次会议降息，合计降幅100个基点，但自今年1月美国总统特朗普上任以来，美联储一直"按兵不动"。 值得一提的是，本次暂停降息的决策没有得到全体联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）投票委员的一致支持，其中美联储负责金融监管的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼 ...