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【高端访谈】中国在跨国企业全球布局中保持重要战略地位——访毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟
Xin Hua She· 2025-06-30 05:00
中国拥有14亿多人口,是全球第二大消费市场,同时中国拥有全球规模最大、成长性最好的中等收入群 体,孕育着大量消费升级需求。蔡伟说:"叠加全面、稳定的供应链基础,中国市场在跨国公司全球布 局中始终保持重要战略地位。" 毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟日前接受新华社记者书面专访时表示,依托中国庞大的市场潜力及其在 全球供应链中的关键地位,外资持续投入并优化在中国市场布局。 蔡伟说,随着中国加快技术创新和推动产业结构转型升级,高技术制造业和生产性服务业逐步成为外资 流入重要领域。 他表示,相信中国将通过扩大自主开放、优化营商环境、完善便利化措施、加强权益保护等举措,持续 打造"投资中国"品牌,提振外资信心,并鼓励更多外资进入创新和服务领域,助力中国高质量发展。 蔡伟对记者说,今年以来,深度求索(DeepSeek)、宇树人形机器人等中国科技企业的崛起向世界展 现了中国科技实力,以及中国促进民营经济高质量发展的坚定信心,"投资者对中国经济向新向好发展 的信心不断增强,这将吸引更多国际资本的流入"。 (文章来源:新华社) 蔡伟认为,作为世界第一大货物贸易国,中国在全球供应链中占据核心地位,将发挥超大规模市场优 势,为全球贸易 ...
系列专题(二):纯苯需求增量的来源与长期增速中枢探讨
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 09:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent years, the demand for pure benzene has shown double - digit growth, significantly higher than other bulk chemicals. The compound annual growth rate from 2019 - 2024 was 14.6%. However, due to changes in the industrial ecosystem, the future demand growth rate of pure benzene may decline, with an estimated growth rate of 5 - 7% from 2025 - 2029 [1][86][87] - The high growth of pure benzene demand in the past five years was mainly due to import substitution, large - scale capacity expansion of direct and indirect downstream industries, and the alignment of terminal demand with the country's new productive forces and industrial transformation and upgrading [25] - In the medium - to - long term, the contribution of import substitution to demand growth will decrease, and the actual demand increment from future capacity expansion may be dominated by terminal demand. But the terminal demand for pure benzene still has certain support due to the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry [3][39][87] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Recent High - Growth State of Pure Benzene Demand and Its Incremental Sources - Pure benzene has many direct and secondary downstream products, with a wide range of terminal applications. From 2019 - 2024, the annual consumption of pure benzene in China nearly doubled, with an annualized compound growth rate of 14.58%. The production of its five major downstream products also showed double - digit growth [13][18][25] - The high growth of pure benzene demand in the past was mainly driven by downstream industry import substitution, large - scale capacity expansion of direct and indirect downstream industries, and the alignment of terminal demand with the country's new productive forces and industrial transformation and upgrading [25] 3.2 Remaining Potential of Downstream Industry Import Substitution - From 2019 - 2024, the import dependence of the pure benzene downstream industry decreased significantly, and the overall structure shifted from a net importer to a net exporter. The import substitution contributed an annualized compound growth rate of about 5 - 6% to pure benzene demand [27] - Currently, the remaining import volume available for substitution is less than 2 million tons (calculated by pure benzene unit consumption), and the substitution difficulty has increased. The future import substitution may contribute an annualized compound demand growth rate of about 1.2%. The focus will gradually shift to export expansion, but the incremental estimate is not overly optimistic [28][32] 3.3 Maturity of the Downstream Industrial Chain Ecosystem and Terminal - Dominated Incremental Demand - From 2019 - 2024, the capacity of the five major direct downstream and indirect downstream industries of pure benzene expanded significantly, with high compound growth rates. The integration of the downstream industrial chain deepened, providing a buffer for upstream capacity expansion [33][36] - Currently, the pure benzene downstream industry is mostly in the mature stage, with saturated competition and the disappearance of excess profits. Although there is still a lot of planned capacity expansion in the future, the actual demand increment may be dominated by terminal demand [39] 3.4 Support for Pure Benzene Terminal Demand from China's Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading - The demand for pure benzene related to the construction and real - estate sector accounts for about 10%. The demand structure of some downstream products has adjusted, reducing the proportion of real - estate demand. The terminal demand is mainly from electrical machinery and equipment, transportation equipment, and other fields [52][83] - China's manufacturing transformation and upgrading will drive the demand for pure benzene downstream derivatives. These derivatives have good comprehensive mechanical properties, which are more suitable for high - end manufacturing. Also, due to their relatively small market base, the growth potential is greater [67][69] - The demand growth rate of nylon (PA6) in the pure benzene downstream industry is higher than that of polyester. The development of outdoor activities and the outdoor economy will continue to drive the development of the pure benzene - caprolactam - PA6 industrial chain [79][80] 3.5 Summary: Future Growth Rate of Pure Benzene Demand - The future demand growth rate of pure benzene will decline compared to the past five years, but it will still be higher than most chemical products. The estimated growth rate from 2025 - 2029 is around 5 - 7% [86][87][88]