Company Recommendations - Chow Tai Fook (1929) is recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 15.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.8%. The catalysts for this recommendation include the historical high gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin fixed-price gold products, which is expected to narrow the year-on-year decline in same-store sales and revenue [10][13] - Pop Mart (9992) is also recommended for buy with a target price of HKD 300.00, representing a potential upside of 16.3%. The catalysts include the sustained popularity of key IPs like the Monsters series and the new IP CRYBABY, with expectations of an earnings surprise announcement in mid-July [14][16] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is currently facing resistance at 24,700 points, with recent trade talks between China and the U.S. leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs. However, the lack of progress in trade negotiations and limited corporate profit improvements are contributing to a slowdown in capital inflow [3][7] - The Chinese stock market is showing signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index recently surpassing 24,000 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment despite external pressures [7] Sector Focus - The Macau gaming sector is expected to perform well, with June's gaming revenue significantly exceeding expectations and the summer peak season approaching [8] - The brokerage sector is also highlighted, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3,500 points and a continued trend of A+H share listings [8] Technical Analysis - Chow Tai Fook's stock price recently reached a 52-week high, supported by strong trading volume and a positive technical outlook, indicating potential for further gains [11][12] - Pop Mart's stock is currently supported at the 20-day moving average, with a favorable technical setup suggesting the possibility of new highs if it maintains above this level [15][18] Industry Growth - The traditional gold jewelry market in mainland China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22% from 2023 to 2028, with Chow Tai Fook holding a significant market share of 20% [13] - Pop Mart's sales growth in Q1 2025 is reported to be significantly higher than management's initial guidance, indicating strong demand for its IP products across both domestic and international markets [18]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The index closed at 23,916 points, down 0.64% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.45% [4] - The market is experiencing a slowdown in capital inflow from mainland investors, and corporate earnings improvements are limited [2][5] Macro Focus - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious stance on future inflation uncertainties [3] - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, which may limit the upward potential of international oil prices [8] Company News - China Feihe (6186) expects a decline in half-year earnings, projecting net profit between 1 billion to 1.2 billion RMB, with a total dividend of no less than 2 billion RMB for the year [9] - Xiaomi (1810) has officially delivered its first batch of the YU7 SUV, priced between 253,500 to 329,900 RMB, with significant initial order numbers [9] - BYD (1211) reported a 54.4% month-on-month increase in sales of its Tang L model, reaching 12,700 units in June [9] - NIO (9866) announced that its L90 model will be priced below 300,000 RMB, with a product launch event scheduled [9] Industry Insights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new government measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [6] - Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, indicating a recovery in the gaming industry [6] - The textile industry anticipates improved orders as Nike's performance is expected to stabilize [6] Economic Indicators - China's smartphone shipments fell by 22% year-on-year in May, with 5G phone shipments decreasing by 17% [8] - The average price of international tickets from mainland China has decreased by 15% this summer, with significant drops in prices for flights to Canada and Japan [8]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months, following a reduction in tariffs between the US and China [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to limited progress in US-China trade talks and a lack of significant economic stimulus from mainland China [2] Macro Focus - The Caixin China Services PMI fell to 50.6 in June, below expectations, indicating a slowdown in service sector expansion [3][8] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 25% year-on-year in June, with a penetration rate of 52.7% [8] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to strengthen guidance on second-hand vehicle exports, aiming to support the development of the second-hand car market [8] - The Macau gaming sector saw a 19% year-on-year increase in June gaming revenue, exceeding expectations [6] Company News - Alibaba issued over 12 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds for Alibaba Health [3] - Geely Auto is entering the Italian market, while XPeng's G7 model starts at 195,800 RMB [3] - HSBC Holdings sold its UK insurance business for approximately 260 million GBP [3] Industry Insights - The biotechnology sector is expected to benefit from new measures supporting the high-quality development of innovative drugs [6] - The textile industry anticipates improved orders as Nike's performance is expected to stabilize [6] - The solar industry is facing challenges due to low-price competition, prompting the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to call for comprehensive governance [9] IPO Market - KPMG estimates that the total amount raised from new IPOs in Hong Kong could reach up to 250 billion HKD this year, with over 200 applications currently being processed [9]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on US imports decreasing from 125% to 10% [2] - The inflow of capital from mainland investors has slowed, and corporate earnings improvements are limited [2] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has mandated that cash transactions over 100,000 RMB for gold and diamonds must be reported starting August [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has completed the allocation of 800 billion RMB for construction projects this year [4] - Hong Kong's retail sales rose by 2.4% in May, ending a 14-month decline [4][10] Corporate News - Luxshare Precision is planning to raise 1 billion USD through an H-share listing in Hong Kong [5][11] - Alibaba repurchased approximately 56 million shares for 805 million USD in the last quarter [11] - Xiaomi is prioritizing domestic delivery issues for its new car model YU7, with plans to expand production [11] - Geely is set to launch its brand of cars in the UK, starting with the electric SUV EX5 [11] IPO Market - PwC forecasts that Hong Kong's IPO fundraising will exceed 200 billion RMB this year, potentially making it the top global market [9] - The first half of the year saw Hong Kong's IPO market raise 107.1 billion RMB, a sevenfold increase from the previous year [9] Sector Focus - The biotech sector is expected to benefit from new government measures supporting high-quality development [8] - Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year, surpassing expectations [8] - The textile sector anticipates improved orders following Nike's performance [8] Banking Sector - KPMG reported that Hong Kong's banking sector showed resilient growth, with total assets increasing by 4.5% to 24 trillion RMB [10] - The non-performing loan ratio rose from 1.65% to 2.15%, primarily due to challenges in the commercial real estate sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase (09999.HK) has shown a steady recovery in stock price after a period of consolidation, with technical indicators turning bullish, suggesting a strong buy signal [1][4]. Technical Analysis - As of June 30, the stock closed at 211 HKD, up 1.54%, breaking through key moving averages and establishing a bullish pattern [1]. - The current stock price is 218 HKD, with significant support levels at 195 HKD and 203 HKD, the latter coinciding with the 30-day moving average [3]. - The 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages are at 206.88 HKD, 200.75 HKD, and 181.2 HKD respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [1]. - The MACD has formed a bullish crossover, and the RSI is at 66, indicating strong momentum without entering overbought territory [1][4]. Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is positive, with 9 out of 16 technical indicators signaling buy or strong buy, reflecting a clear trend favoring the bulls [1][3]. - The short-term upward movement probability is estimated at 53%, with a volatility of only 4%, indicating a stable upward trend [3]. Derivative Instruments - Two notable call options for NetEase are highlighted: - The Huatai-issued call option (13427) with a strike price of 200 HKD, offering a leverage of 8.9 times and a premium of 2.607% [4][5]. - The UBS-issued call option (29565) with a strike price of 202.08 HKD, providing a leverage of 7.8 times and a premium of 4.066% [5]. - These options are considered attractive for short-term investors looking to capitalize on the bullish trend, especially as the stock approaches resistance at 217 HKD [4][5]. Trading Strategy - If the stock price successfully breaks through 217 HKD, it is expected to test higher resistance levels at 227 HKD [3]. - In case of a short-term pullback, 203 HKD and 206 HKD are identified as potential support levels for re-entry [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis of Tencent Holdings (00700) indicates a bearish sentiment in the market, with technical signals suggesting potential price declines and key support levels identified for investors to consider entry points [1][2]. Technical Analysis - As of July 2, Tencent's stock price was reported at 503 HKD, showing a slight decline of 0.1%. The stock is at a critical decision point, with short-term support at 486 HKD and mid-term support at 469 HKD. Resistance levels are identified at 517 HKD and 534 HKD [2]. - The RSI indicator is at 48, indicating a neutral to weak sentiment, while multiple moving averages are entangled, suggesting indecision in the market. The 10-day moving average at 506.8 HKD is acting as short-term pressure [2]. - The MACD and Bollinger Bands are signaling a sell, reinforcing the notion that the market is in a corrective phase [2]. Derivative Products - In the derivatives market, Tencent's stock decline of 2.24% on June 27 led to significant performance in bear certificates, with Morgan Stanley's bear certificate (58426) rising by 26% and UBS's bear certificate (58470) increasing by 24% in the following two trading days, showcasing the leverage effect of these instruments in a downward market [2]. - For call options, Bank of China offers two products: one with a strike price of 563.5 HKD providing a leverage of 15.8 times, suitable for aggressive investors, and another with a slightly lower leverage of 13.8 times but with the lowest premium and implied volatility in the market [4]. - In the put options category, UBS's put option (16669) leads with a leverage of 14.3 times, maintaining a safe margin with a strike price of 443.13 HKD, while Bank of China's option (17569) offers a more conservative hedge with a leverage of 12.2 times [4]. Bull and Bear Certificates - Among bull certificates, UBS's product (69944) offers a high leverage of 19.4 times with a redemption price of 484 HKD, making it a preferred choice for aggressive strategies. Another product (54536) has a slightly lower leverage of 17.7 times but attracts conservative funds due to its lowest premium characteristics [6]. - For bear certificates, Société Générale's (60438) and UBS's (61324) products both provide impressive leverage of 28.8 times, with reasonable redemption prices of 522 HKD and 520 HKD, respectively, suitable for capturing potential technical pullbacks [6]. Market Sentiment - The 60-day moving average at 495 HKD is still on an upward trend, raising questions about whether a stronger rebound may follow the current technical consolidation. Investors are encouraged to consider their strategies, whether to use bull certificates for bottom-fishing or bear certificates for shorting [9].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has seen bearish investors continuously for three days, indicating a potential decline for at least a week, with a recall price of 24,498 for bear certificates [1] - Investors are deploying bull certificates towards the end of trading sessions, betting on the next day's market movements, which reflects a common overnight holding strategy [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the HSI is currently above 24,000, with support at 23,618 and resistance at 24,542, indicating a "buy" signal [2] Group 2 - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) has a strong buy signal, with resistance levels at 38.6 and 41.5, while investors are eyeing a potential rise to 44 [4] - WuXi Biologics (02269.HK) is stabilizing at a closing price of 25.65, with neutral technical signals and resistance at 26.8 and 29, while support is at 23.9 [7] - BYD Electronic (00285.HK) shows a buy signal, with a target of 40, but requires breaking through resistance levels at 32.8 and 33.9 [10] Group 3 - Meituan-W (03690.HK) has bearish investors anticipating a drop below 90 before entering the market, with some considering put options [12] - NetEase-S (09999.HK) is on an upward trend, with resistance at 219 and 229, while investors are cautious about the safety of a bear certificate with a recall price of 220 [14]

Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - Investors are optimistic about a potential increase of 500 points, with a focus on the resistance level at 24700 points and support at 23732 points [1][1] - Technical analysis indicates a "buy" signal, suggesting that buying near the support level of 23732 or lower could reduce risk [1][1] Group 2: Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH) - The index has been consolidating for three days, with a cautious optimism reflected in a "buy" signal, though not a strong buy [3][3] - Resistance is noted at 5512 points, while support levels are at 5196 and 5030 points, indicating a potential move towards the 5000 point mark [3][3] Group 3: ZTE Corporation (00763.HK) - The stock price has shown upward movement, with a "buy" signal prevalent in technical data [6][6] - Key resistance is at 24.9 HKD, with a potential challenge to reach 25 HKD if it breaks through this level [6][6] Group 4: GF Securities (01776.HK) - The stock has seen a short-term increase of over 10%, with a "buy" signal supported by positive trends across daily, weekly, and monthly charts [9][9] - Resistance levels are optimistic at 15.1 HKD and 15.5 HKD, indicating a bullish outlook [9][9] Group 5: Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) - Technical analysis shows a preference for buying, with 15 buy signals against 1 sell signal [12][12] - Resistance levels to watch are at 65.4 HKD and 68.6 HKD, with a potential challenge to reach 70 HKD [12][12] Group 6: Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) - The stock has broken through previous highs, with a strong buy signal indicated by 16 buy signals and 2 sell signals [16][16] - Resistance levels are at 63.7 HKD and 66.1 HKD, while support is at 55.3 HKD and 51.9 HKD, suggesting a strategic entry point around 54 HKD [16][16]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is facing resistance at 24,700 points, with a projected P/E ratio of 11 times over the next 12 months [2] - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a temporary reduction in tariffs, with US tariffs on Chinese imports dropping from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [2] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to limited progress in trade negotiations and a lack of significant economic stimulus from mainland China [2] Macro Focus - The Chinese government is implementing measures to boost domestic consumption, including a 500 billion yuan loan for elderly care and support for the automotive industry through trade-in policies [3][7] - The approval of 158 domestic and imported games in June, including titles from Tencent and NetEase, indicates a positive trend for the gaming sector [8] - The US Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year [3][8] Company News - Wang Wang reported an 8.6% increase in annual profit to 4.335 billion yuan, with a reduction in dividend payout to 2.04 US cents [9] - Vitasoy's annual profit doubled to 240 million yuan, with a final dividend of 10.2 cents, reflecting a 32% increase [9] - Meituan is exiting unprofitable regions in its community group-buying business, focusing on Guangdong and Zhejiang, where it has achieved profitability [9] - Tencent's major shareholder Naspers is considering reducing its stake in Meituan to support its own food delivery business, iFood, in Brazil [9] Industry Insights - The automotive sector is seeing increased government support for electric vehicle consumption, with initiatives to promote trade-in programs for old vehicles [6][7] - The gold mining sector is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves [6] - The recent surge in container throughput at Chinese ports indicates a strong export performance ahead of potential tariff increases from the US [7]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 23,000 to 24,000 points due to a series of financial policies introduced in mainland China to stabilize the market and expectations, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [1] - The U.S. and China have agreed to lower tariffs, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period [1] Sector Outlook - Gold mining stocks are favored in the short term due to geopolitical tensions and central banks continuing to increase their gold holdings [2] Corporate News - Alibaba (9988) has integrated its food delivery platform Ele.me and travel platform Fliggy into its e-commerce business group, aiming for a strategic upgrade towards a comprehensive consumer platform [3][12] - Meituan (3690) is expanding its instant retail business, enhancing its supply chain digitalization capabilities and aiming to cover all first and second-tier cities [3][12] - BYD (1211) is reported to be providing rebates to dealers, with the scale expected to exceed 1 billion RMB [3] - China Hongqiao (1378) anticipates a 35% increase in net profit for the first half of the year due to product price increases [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% in 2025, while the inflation outlook remains uncertain [4] - China's land sales revenue fell to 194.1 billion RMB in May, the lowest in a decade, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China aims to increase gold resource volume by 5%-10% and silver production by over 5% by 2027 [10] IPO and Investment Climate - Hong Kong's IPO fundraising is expected to reach nearly 80 billion HKD this year, placing it among the top globally [11] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is preparing for potential interest rate increases as the Hong Kong dollar approaches its weak end of the trading band [10]